Deutsche Bank
Markets Research
VA
Rating Company
29 July 2014
Buy Eastman Chemical
Results
North America
United States
Reuters Bloomberg Price at 29 Jul 2014 IUSD) 81.52
Industrials EMN.N EMN UN
Price target 100.00
Chemicals / Specialty
52-week range 90.20 - 72.67
Share Price Decline Unwarranted David Begleiter
Research Analyst
1+1) 212 250.5473
david.begleiter@db.com
Concerns overdone. Valuation compelling at 10.6x '15E vs Dow at 14.8x. Buy
Eastman shares fell 8% despite a solid Q2 beat and the reaffirming of '14 Ramanan Sivalingam
guidance as investors focused on i) new '15 guidance of $7.50-$8.00 (vs $8 Research Associate
previously) and ii) a lowering of '14 Fibers (largest and highest margin
1+1 ) 212 250-8619
segment) EBIT guidance by 6%. We believe investor concerns are overdone as ramanan.sivalingam@db.com
i) Eastman has been backing away from the $8 target for months and, as
evidenced by consensus of $7.77, was not viewed as achievable either and ii)
Fibers is under-earning in '14 due to destocking, lower demand and reduced Jermaine Brown
operating rates. With valuation a compelling 10.6x '15 EPS vs 14.8x for Dow Research Associate
and Q2 evidencing a more predictable and resilient earnings generator, Buy. 1+1) 212 250.3624
02 beats by $0.08. '14 guidance of $6.70-$7.00 reaffirmed (cons: $6.93) jermaine-r.brown@db.com
Eastman reported Q2 EPS of $1.92, up 7%, and $0.08 or 4% above consensus.
An unplanned outage at Eastman's Kingsport plant reduced sates by $10MM I Price/price relative
(in Specialty Fluids & Intermediates {SFI),), EBIT by $10MM (evenly divided
between Advanced Matis, Fibers and SFI) and EPS by $0.05. Prior to the los
outage, consensus was $1.88. A lower than expected tax rate added $0.01. 90
The upside was driven by stronger than expected results in Adhesives & 79
Plasticizers (AP) and SFI. Sales rose 1% on flat volumes and price while FX 60
added 1%. EBIT fell 3% to $441MM while margins compressed 70bps YoY
(+130 QoQ) to 17.9% on higher propane costs. Eastman repurchased $100MM
and 2112 ern 2113 fet3 2114
of stock in Q2 and has $640MM left under its $18 authorization. Eastman
—fawn.. Chanical
reaffirmed its full year guidance range of $630-$7.00, up 4-9% (cons: $6.93).
Sap WO MOM 'Relined,
Lowering '14E EPS by $0.05 to $6.90. Lowering '15E EPS by $0.05 to $7.70
Notwithstanding a solid 02 release, Eastman shares fell 8% due to concerns Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m
over lowered '15 EPS and '14 Fibers guidance. Another driver, in our view, was Absolute -6.7 -5.4 8.6
the wide $0.30 guidance range for 21114 as it implies a high degree of volatility S&P 500 INDEX 0.5 4.9 16.9
in Eastman's business. A slight narrowing of the range to $6.75-$6.95, in our
view, would have alleviated this concern. For 21414, we expect slightly lower Swear Oarocia spat
EPS for Eastman due to destocking in Fibers, a slowdown in heat transfer argot price of $100
fluids (China) and a planned outage at the company's largest ethylene cracker Our $100 target price is based on
in Longview, TX ($20MM, or $0.10 impact in Q4). Looking ahead to '15, we Eastman trading at 13x '15E EPS in
believe Fiber earnings will recover modestly post destocking and lower plant 12mos, a 12% discount to its
operating rates in '14. While we concur with Eastman's view that Fiber differentiated chemical peer Dow. Risks:
earnings are plateauing, we believe EBIT will be higher in '15 at —$500MM vs weaker tire demand,
the depressed level of $480MM in '14. And with EBITDA of $550MM and increased leverage and the Solutia
capex of just $50MM, Fibers should be strong source of cash to fund growth integration.
(M&A, buybacks). For all of '15, we believe Eastman has a number of tailwinds
that should drive eamings well above $7.50 including: normalized operations
(outages/tumarounds: $0.20), lower propane costs ($0.15-$0.20), acquisitions
($0.10-plus), base business growth ($0.35) and share buybacks ($0.20). To
reflect lower Fibers earnings, we are trimming our '14E EPS by $0.05 to $6.90,
up 7% and our '15E by $0.05 to $7.70 up 12%.
I Forecasts And Ratios
Year End Dec 31 2013A 2014E 2015E
FY EPS ILISDI 6.44 6.90 7.70
Saent alidSt.hit ate* tfailteltit 1:09,01fly au
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should
consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 148/04/2014.
EFTA01100347
29 July 2014
Chemicals / Specialty
Eastman Chemical
IFigure 1: Eastman Q2 2014 Results ($ in millions)
Segment 02'14 02'13 % change Comment
Sales $2,460 $2,440 1% Vols: flat, Price: flat, FX: +1%. Marginal sales growth as higher demand in
Additives & functional, Adhesives & plasticizers and Fibers offset by lower
demand in Specialty fluids & intermediates. Acquired BP's aviation turbine oil
business for $283MM. Outlook: FY'14 Expects sales to grow at global GDP
growth rate in H2'14.
Additives & $452 $430 5% Vols: +4%, Price: flat, FX: +1%. Upside driven by higher demands for coating
Functional Products product lines partially offset by continues destocking in China (primarily for
commercial tiresl. Outlook: Expects vats to be better in H214.
Adhesives & $358 $339 6% Vols: +9%, Price: -4%, FX: +1%. Upside led by higher sales vols for adhesives
Plasticizers resins and plasticizers more than offsetting lower selling prices due to cont'd
competitive pressure as increased supply of adhesive resins and weak
plasticizers demand in APac and Europe regions.
Advanced Materials $631 $625 1% Vols: flat, Price: flat, FX: +1%. Lower sales growth as higher vols for premium
products like interfayers with acoustic properties and Eastman Tritan"'
copolyester offset by weak demand for Flexvue coated films. Outlook: Expects
sales growth to be in the range of 4%-5% in ;42'14 on higher demand for premium
products.
Fibers $386 $363 6% Vols: +2%, Price: +4%, FX: flat. Higher growth driven by improved selling prices
and sales of acetate flake to EMN's China acetate tow joint venture more than
offsetting by lower vols of acetate tow due to additional industry capacity.
Outlook: Expects lower sales vols in H2'14
Specialty Fluids & $633 $677 (6%) Vols: -,9%%, Price: +2%, FX: flat. Downside due to the unplanned shutdown of
Intermediates the plant (due to power disruption) and lower sales vols for intermediates
product line partially offset by improved vols of acetyl-based products.
Operating profit $441 $454 (3%) Downside primarily due to higher raw material costs, outage costs alongside
competitive pressure in core products partially offset by better product mix.
Additives & $103 $105 (2%) Weakness due to higher raw mat & energy costs (esp propane) partially offset
Functional Products by higher vols. Outlook: FY'14 SIT: -$410-$430MM.
Adhesives & $56 $50 12% Higher earnings due to improved vofs, better productivity and lower operating
Plasticizers costs partially offset by lower prices. Outlook: FY'14 ENT: Expects to be more
than $175MM.
Advanced Materials $80 $81 (1%) Relatively flat as lower raw material & energy costs offset by costs of the
unplanned shutdown. Outlook: FY14 EMT: -$280-$300MM
Fibers $123 $116 6% Upside led by higher prices coupled with increased sales of acetate flake to JV
and lower raw material costs more then offsetting lower tow acetate vols and
higher operating costs. Outlook: FY'14 SIT: -$480MM
Specialty Fluids & $96 $118 119%1 Downside due to lower vols, higher raw material. & energy costs (esp propane{
Intermediates alongside costs of the unplanned shutdown at the Kingsport site. Outlook: FY'14
EMT: -$300-$320MM
Operating margin 17.9% 18.6% -70bps
Additives & 22.8% 24.4% -160bps
Functional Products
Adhesives & 15.6% 14.7% +90bps
Plasticizers
Advanced Materials 12.7% 13.0% -30bps
Fibers 31.9% 32.0% -10bps
Specialty Fluids & 15.2% 17.4% -230bps
Intermediates
Interest Expense ($45) ($46) (2%)
Other $8 $0
Income/Expense
Pretax profits $404 $408 (1%)
($124)
Taxes ($112)
Tax rate 28% 30% Outlook: FY'14: —280%
Non-controlling lid ($2) ($2) 0%
Earnings from ops $290 $282 3%
One time items $0 ($18)
Page 2 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
EFTA01100348
29 July 2014
Chemicals / Specialty
Eastman Chemical
Income from $2 $0
discount. Ops
Reported net inc. $292 $284
Earnings per share $1.92 $1.80 7% FY'14 Guidance: $6.70 - '15 Guidance: $7.50 - $8.00
(EPS)
Cash flow items Q2'14 Cash: $175MM, CFO: +$419MM, Capex: $132MM, Acquisition: $283MM,
FCF: $234MM, Dividends: $53MM, Repurchase: $100MM. Outlook: FY14 Capex:
$575MM, FCF: $600MM.
&tom Drvatht Bat*
Figure 2: US Propane to Propylene spread (cnb) in poised to fall in Q3'14 vs 02'14 due to modestly higher
propane prices
45 .•
40 -.-
35 4-
30 -
25 -,-
20 -,-
15 -.-
10
5
0 I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I 1 I 1 i
.0mk..lNWWWWWM4DAI , I, AWWWWMMMM0000.—.—r.—NNNNCOMMMV.
g§ggg§g8g§§8g§§8g§§8g§§g5883588358835883581i
Santa Detotahr Batt. Eastman Off Ofilratall
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 3
EFTA01100349
29 July 2014
Chemicals / Specialty
Eastman Chemical
Q2 Results
Eastman reported Q2 EPS of $1.92, up 7%, and $0.08 or 4% above consensus of $1.84.
A lower than expected tax rate added $0.01. The upside was driven by stronger than
expected results in Adhesives & Plasticizers and SFI. Sales rose 1% on flat volumes and
price while FX added 1%. EBIT fell 3% to $441MM while margins compressed 70bps
YoY (+130 QoQ) to 17.9% amid higher propane costs. Eastman reaffirmed '14 EPS
guidance of $6.70-$7.00, up 4-9% YoY (consensus: $6.93).
Additives & Functional Products sales rose 5% on 4% higher volumes on improved
coatings demand (building and construction, transportation). EBIT fell 2% to $103MM
(cons: S104MM) while margins compressed 160 bps to 22.8% on higher propane
prices.
Adhesives & Plasticizers sales rose 6% on 9% higher volumes partially offset by 4%
lower price. EBIT rose 12% to $56MM (cons: $45MM) as adhesive demand appears to
have turned the corner following last year's sharp declines and a shift towards
Eastman's non-phthalate plasticizers owing to substitution away from phthalate
plasticizers. Margins expanded 90 bps to 15.6%.
Advanced Materials sales rose 1% on flat volumes and price while FX added 1%. EBIT
fell 1% to S80MM (cons: $87MM) as margins compressed 30 bps to 12.7% owing to
the impact of the Kingsport outage.
Fibers sales rose 6% on 4% higher price and 2% higher volume. EBIT climbed 6% to
$123MM (cons: $126MM) while margins compressed 10 bps to 31.9%.
Specialty Fluids & Intermediates sales fell 6% on 8% lower volume due to the Kingsport
outage partially offset by 2% higher price. EBIT fell 19% to $96MM (cons: $81MM) and
margins compressed 220 bps to 15.2% on higher propane costs and the effects from
the Kingsport outage.
'Figure 3: Q2 '14 segment sales % change (YoY)
Volume Mee FX Total
Additives & Functional 4% — 1% 6%
Products
Adhesives & Plasticizers 9% 14%1 1% 6%
Advanced Materials 1% 1%
Fibers 2% 4% 6%
Specialty Fluids & (8%) 2% 16%)
Intermediates
Total 1% 1%
Sweat Seternan
Page 4 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
EFTA01100350
29 July 2014
Chemicals / Specialty
Eastman Chemical
2014 Segment Outlook
Figure 4: 2014E Segment Operating Earnings Guidance and DriversiS in millions)
Segment 2014E 2013 %A Comments
Additives & Functional $410-430 $406 1%-6% (+I Higher vols as improvements in the
Products transportation and building & construction
markets
I-I Partial offset by contracted olefin spread.
Adhesives & Plasticizers >$176 $173 1% (+I Improved vols, better productivity and
lower operating costs
(-I Competitive pricing pressure in
plasticizers
Advance Materials $280-$300 $260 8%-15% (+I Increased volume and mix improvement.
(-I Costs of the unplanned shutdown.
Fibers —$480 5462 4% (+I Strong acetate flake volume, lower raw
material costs and higher selling prices.
I-I Lower tow acetate vols and higher
operating costs
Specialty Fluids & $300-$320 $364 (12%-18%l I-I Volatility of key raw materials (primarily
Intermediates propane) and unplanned shutdown.
I+ITechnology licensing revenue to negate
the impact of raw material volatility.
Sc..* Ememan
IFigure 5: 2014 olefins spread
Rio
impact
year projected olefins prices
Propane $1.18/gallon
Ethane $0.29/gallon
Propylene $0.70/lb
Ethylene $0.46/lb
AC/inOtb:Lothetbeadecinda
Increasing use of ethane relative to propane as a feedstock
Hedging program mitigates propane costs exposure
Pricing actions expected to partially offset higher feedstock costs
Narrowing olefins spreads projected to negatively impact 2014
EPS relative to 2013 by $0.30 to $0.40
Sown Logro.b.k HAWS( ins
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 5
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29 July 2014
Chemicals / Specialty
Eastman Chemical
'Figure 6: 2013 Geographic Safes Analysis 'Figure 7: 2013 Segment Sales Analysis
LallnIereace A6S1644 and
5% Funcionsi
Sp000ly Rids & r4cclets
worrroatuos S 19%
26%
WS Cowl& AdheeMes&
46% pSliciws
14%
Palos
16%
Athancod
IMIOrot
25%
Sweat Lwow, Sown. fawn.»
'Figure 8: 2013 sales by end-market
Energy. Fuels & Electronics Agriculture
Water 3% 2% Transportation
5% le%
Health & Wellness
6%
Other
6%
Building &
Construction
Durable Goods 15%
8%
Industrial Chemical
& Processing Cornmeal*.
12% 14%
Tobacco
13%
SWAM Saltaan
'Figure 9: 2Q'14 Sales by Region 'Figure 10: 2O'14 Safes by Segment
Lath Americo AtISIMetat
5% *Wary Rio A heated %Web)
M. 19%
26%
vase Steered
Canada
Adnsu6sA
46% ft :0MM
14%
Mats
16%
PalvenC441
falier961
26%
Savant fr ame" anal% Sans &Nowt Clauitcola
Page 6 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
EFTA01100352
29 July 2014
Chemicals / Specialty
Eastman Chemical
Valuation
Our $100 target is based on Eastman trading at 13x 2015E EPS in 12 months, a 12%
discount to its closest differentiated chemical peer Dow, which trades at 14.8x '15E
EPS. We believe this multiple is warranted given the progress made integrating Solutia
and cost synergies already realized. With the new Eastman becoming a more
consistent, stable and predictable earnings generator, we believe Eastman's discount
versus its main differentiated peer, DOW will begin to close. Our valuation is further
supported by our estimate of Eastman's return on invested capital of 11.2% in 2013E
and 11.2% in 2014E and our analysis showing a strong correlation (R2>70%) between
chemical sector valuations and returns on capital.
Risks
Downside risks to our forecasts include increased leverage (-2.8x debt/EBITDA) a
failure to achieve Solutia acquisition synergies, increases in propane and paraxylene
prices (Eastman's two largest raw materials), a narrowing of the US Gulf Coast
propane•propylene spread, price erosion within Additives and Functional Products,
additional acetate tow capacity and lower global demand.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 7
EFTA01100353
29 July 2014
Chemicals /Specialty
Eastman Chemical
Figure 11 lhons, s are data)
2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales 7,178 8,102 9,350 9,533 9,915
% Change 11% 13% 15% 2% 4%
Cost of Sales (5,538) (5,978) (6,939) (7,068) (7,272)
Gross Profit 1,640 2,124 2,411 2,465 2,643
Gross Margin 22.8% 26.2% 25.8% 25.9% 26.7%
% Change 8% 30% 14% 2% 7%
Selling & Administrative (469) (607) (624) (625) (645)
SG&ASales 6.5% 7.5% 6.7% 6.6% 6.5%
% Change 4% 29% 3% 0% 3%
Research & Development (158) (198) (196) (210) (218)
R&D/Sates 2.2% 2.4% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2%
% Change (1%) 25% (1%) 7% 4%
(S&A+R&D)'Sales 8.7% 9.9% 8.8% 8.8% 8.7%
Operating Profit 1,013 1,319 1,591 1,630 1,780
Operating Margin 14.1% 16.3% 17.0% 17.1% 18.0%
% Change 11% 30% 21% 2% 9%
EBITDA 1,305 1,689 2,021 2,086 2,245
Operating Margin 18.2% 20.8% 21.6% 21.9% 226`.
96 Change 11% 29% 20% 3% 8
Interest Expense (76) (134) (180) (181) (188)
% Change (23%) 76% 34% 1% 4%
Other Income/Expense 19 10 (3) 11 0
Pretax Income 956 1,195 1,408 1,460 1,592
Pretax Margin 13.3% 14.7% 15.1% 15.3% 16.1%
% Change 20% 25% 18% 4% 9%
Taxes (304) (391) (393) (407) (446)
Tax Rate 31.8% 32.7% 27.9% 27.9% 28.O%
Net Income Attributable to
Noncontrolling Interests 0 (2) (7) (7) (8)
Net Income 652 802 1,008 1,046 1,138
Net Margin 9.1% 9.9% 10.8% 11.0% 11.5%
% Change 24% 23% 26% 4% 9%
Basic Shares Outstanding 139.7 145.5 154.0 149.4 145.4
% Change (3%) 4% 6% (3%) (3%)
Diluted Shares Outstanding 143.0 148.9 156.5 151.5 147.8
% Change 13%1 4% 5% (3%) (2%1
Basic EPS $4.66 $5.51 $6.55 $7.00 $7.83
% Change 28% 18% 19% 7% 12%
Diluted EPS $4.56 $5.39 $6.44 $6.90 $7.70
% Change 28% 18% 20% 7% 12%
Sane:Doutscb Bane common Eastmain
Page 8 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
EFTA01100354
29 July 2014
Chemicals / Specialty
Eastman Chemical
Figure 12: Eastman Quarterly Income Statement 2013-2014E ($ in millions except per-share data)
2013 2014E
U1 02 03 04 YtAB 01A 02A 13.1 04 rta(
Sale.. 2,307 2.440 2,338 2,265 9.350 2,305 2,460 2,421 2.347 9,533
',. Ctiarigc 27% 32% 3% 4% 15% (0%) 1% 4% 4% 2%
Cost of Sales 11.691) 11.763) 11.717) 11.768) 16.939) 11.710) 11.791) 11.7811 11.787) 0.0691
Gross Profit 616 677 621 497 2,411 595 669 641 561 2.465
Gross 1.43rgin 26.7% 27.7% 26.6% 21.9% 25.8% 25.8% 27.2% 26.5% 23.9% 25.9%
% Change 43% 41% 3% (19%) 14% (3%) (1%) 3% 13% 2%
Selling 8i Administrative 1104) 4172) 1165) (123) 1624) 1159) (172) 1166) 1128) 1625)
SG8s4Sales 7.1% 7.0% 7.1% 5.4% 6.7% 6.9% 7.0% 6.9% 5.5% 6.6%
% Change 40% 50% 9% (45%) 3% (3%) 0% 1% 4% 0%
Research & Development 1491 1511 1511 145) 1196) 4531 156) 1541 1481 1210)
R&D/Sates 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2%
% Change 20% 19% (2%1 (27%) (1%) 8% 10% 5% 6% 7%
($8.4.R&DPSales 9.2% 9.1% 9.2% 7.4% ani 9.2% an 9.1% 7.5% atm
Operating Profit 403 454 405 329 1,591 383 441 421 385 1,630
Operating Margin 17.5% 18.6% 17.3% 14.5% 17.0% 16.6% 17.9% 17.4% 16.4% 17.1%
% Change 48% 41% 2% 1% 21% (5%) (3%) 4% 17% 2%
EBITDA 512 562 512 435 2.021 493 559 532 496 2,086
Operating Margin 22.2% 23.0% 21.9% !an 21.6% 21.4% 22.7% 22.0% 21.1% 21.9%
% Cha 44 1 4 1 4 14
Interest Expense 071 1461 1441 (43) 1180) 1421 (45) 1471 1471 1181)
% Change 147% 142% (8%) f10%) 34% (11%) (2%) 7% 9% 1%
Other Income (Expense) 111 0 111 (11 131 3 8 0 0 11
Pretax Income 355 408 360 285 1,408 344 404 374 338 1.460
Pretax Margin 15.4% 16.7% 15.4% 12.6% 15.1% 14.9% 16.4% 15.4% 14.4% 15.3%
% Change 38% 36% 2% 0% 18% (3%) (1%) 4% 19% 4%
Taxes 1101) 11241 1961 172) 1393) 1961 1112) 1105) 1951 1407)
Tax Rate 28.5% 30.4% 26.7% 25.3% 27.9% 27.9% 27.7% 28.0% 28.0% 27.9%
Net Income Attributable to
Noncontrolling Interests 111 121 111 131 171 111 121 111 131 17/
Net Income 253 282 263 210 1.008 247 290 268 240 1.046
Net Margin 11.0% 11.6% 11.2% 9.3% 10.8% 10.7% 11.8% 11.1% 10.2% 11.0%
% Change 47% 43% 7% 12% 26% (2%) 3% 2% 14% 4%
Basic Shares Outstanding 154.4 154.4 154.0 153.2 154.0 151.4 149.5 148.7 148,2 149.4
°s Change 12% 12% 1% (0%1 6% (2%1 (3%1 (3%1 (3%1 (3%1
Diluted Shares Outstanding 156.7 156.7 156.4 155.6 156.5 153.0 151.3 151.1 150.6 151.5
"J Change 11% 11% 0% (1%) 5% (2%) (3%) (3%) (3%) .53%)
Basic EPS $1.64 $1.83 $1.71 $1.37 $6.66 stet) $1.94 $1.90 $1.62 $7.00
% Change 3I% 28% 8% 13% 19% (0%1 6% 6% 18% 7%
Diluted EPS $1.61 $1.80 91.68 91.35 96.44 91.61 91.92 91.78 $1.60 $6.90
% Change 32% 29% 7% 13% 20% (0%1 7% 6% 18% 7%
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Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 9
EFTA01100355
29 July 2014
Chemicals / Specialty
Eastman Chemical
'Figure 13: Eastman A
2011 2012 2013P 2014E 2016E
pro ForrosAntual Rag Et EE
Additives & Functional Products 1.677 1,613 1,719 1.780 1,860
% Change 8% (4%) 7% 4% 4%
Adhesives & Plasticizers 1.381 1.432 1.326 1.375 1,425
% Change 32% 4% (7%) 4% 4%
Advanced Materials 2.313 2.254 2.349 2.370 2.500
% Change 12% 13%1 4% 1% 6%
Fibers 1.279 1,315 1.441 1.500 1.525
% Change 12% 3% 10% 4% 2%
Specialty Fluids & Intermediates 2.548 2.473 2.497 2.505 2.600
% °dope 34% (3%) 7% 0% 4%
Total Segment Sales 9.198 9.087 9.332 9.530 9.910
Other 77 33 18 3 5
Sales 9,275 9,120 9.350 9.533 9.915
% Change 19% (2%) 3% 2% 4%
pro Forma/Actual Oneratina Profit PE EE
Additives & Functional Products 382 393 406 415 454
Operating Man*, 22.8% 24.4% 23.6% 23.3% 24.4%
% Change 3% 3% 3% 2% 9%
Adhesives & Plasticizers 250 263 173 185 195
Operating Margin 18.1% 18.4% 13.0% 13.5% 13.7%
% Change 34% 6% (34%) 7% 6%
Advanced Materials 251 210 280 295 323
Operating Maigin 10.9% 9.3% 11.1% 12.4% 12.9%
% Change 20% (16%) 24% 13% 9%
Fibers 365 388 462 480 488
Operating Margin 28.5% 29.5% 32.1% 32.0% 32.0%
% Change 7% 6% 19% 4% 2%
Specialty Fluids & Intermedates 278 359 384 310 375
Operating Margin 10.9% 14.5% 14.6% 12.4% 14.4%
% Change 28% 29%. 1% I15%) 21/4,
Segment Operating Profit 1,526 1,613 1,665 1,685 1.835
% Change 15% 6% 3% 1% 9%
Other 1128) 1126) 174) 155) 155)
Operating Profit 1.398 1.487 1.591 1,630 1.780
Operating !Navin 191% 76.3% 17.0% 17.1% 18.0%
% Change 12% 6% 7% 2% 9%
Pro Forme/Actual EMMA PE &
Additives & Functional Products 477 490 501 513 557
EHITDA Margin 28.4% 30.4% 29.1% 28.8% 29.9%
% Change 3% 3% 2% 2% 9%
Adhesives &Plasticizers 294 308 218 230 241
681117A Margin 21.3% 21.5% 16.4% 16.7% 16.9%
% Change 31% 5% (29%) 6% 5%
Advanced Materials 386 347 404 443 477
581T0.4 Abrgin 16.7% 15.4% 17.2% 18.7% 19.7%
% Change 10% 00%) 16% 10% 8%
Fibers 433 457 527 545 554
EBITOA Margin 33.9% 34.8% 36.6% 38.3% 363%
% Change 7% 6% 15% 3% 2%
Specialty Fluids & I mennedates 358 440 444 395 467
5HITOA Mirgin 14.1% 17.8% 17.8% 15.8% 18.0%
% Change 23% 23% 7% OM) 18%
SOWThifit E BUDA 1,948 2.042 2.094 2.126 2.296
% Change 14% 5% 3% 2% 8%
Other 11211 (119) 1701 151) 1511
EBITDA 1.827 1,923 2.024 2.075 2.245
EBITOA Abigin 19.7% 21.1% 21.6% 21.8% 22.6%
% Change 11% 5% 6% 3% 8%
Interest Expense 176) 1134) 1180) 1181) 1188)
% Chanue (23%) 76% 34% 1% 4%
Other IncomciE xpensc 19 10 13) II 0
Pretax Income 956 1.195 1,408 1,480 1,592
Pretax Margin 13.3% 14.7% 15.7% 15.3% 76.194
% Change 20% 25% 18% 4% 9%
Taxes 1304) 1391) 1393) 1407) 1446)
rex Rate 31.8% 32.7% 27.9% 27.9% no%
Net Income Attributable to
Noncontioning Interests 0 12) 47) 17) 18)
Not Income 652 802 1,008 1,046 1,138
SaiKIVOCUISOW &at erema Lenin,
Page 10 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
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Chemicals / Specialty
Eastman Chemical
igure 14: Eastman Quarterly Segment Income Statement 2013-2014E ($ in millions, except per-share data)
2013 2014E
01 122 03 OS WA WA WA OD as read
Selea
Ad:Wives & Functional Products 419 430 445 425 1,719 423 452 485 440 1.780
% Change 5% 2% 10% 11% 7% 1% 5% 4% 4% 4%
Adhesiran &Plasticizers 345 339 321 321 1.326 345 358 335 337 1.375
% Change (8%) (9%) (8%) (5%) (7%) 0% 6% 4% 5% 4%
Advanced Skiterials 584 625 583 557 2.349 581 631 590 588 2.370
% Change 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% (1%) 1% 1% 2% 1%
Fibers 348 363 363 369 1.441 364 386 380 380 1500
% Change 7% 14% 4% 14% 10% 2% 6% 5% 3% 4%
Specialty Fluids & intermediates 607 677 820 593 2.497 601 633 650 621 2.505
% Change 15%1 4% 5% 1% 1% (1%) (8%) 5% 5% 0%
Total Segment Sales 2.301 2.434 2.332 2.265 9.332 2.304 2.480 2.420 2.346 9.530
Other 6 6 6 0 t8 1 0 I i 3
Sates 2.307 2,440 2.338 2.285 9.350 2.305 2.480 2.421 2.347 9.533
% Change (1%) 3% 3% 4% 3% (0%) 1% 4% 4% 2%
aggratino Profit
Ackkives & Functional Products 98 105 III 92 408 94 103 110 108 415
Operating Margin 23.4% 24.4% 24.9% 21.6% 23.6% 22.2% 22.8% 23.7% 24.5% 23.3%
% Change 4% 0% 6% 3% 3% (4%) (2%) UV 17% 2%
Adheshois & Plasticizers 49 50 41 33 173 47 56 45 37 185
Operating Unpin 14.2% 14.7% 12.8% 10.3% 73.0% 33.6% 15.6% 13.4% 110% 13.596
% Change (26%) (31%1 144%1 137%1 134%) (4%) 12% 10% 12% 7%
Advanced Wens& 65 81 69 45 280 71 80 80 84 295
Operating Unpin 11.1% 73.094 118% 8.7% 17.1% 12.2% 12.7% 13.6% 11.3% 12.4%
% Change 7% 29% 21% 55% 24% 9% (1%) 16% 42% 13%
Fibers 114 116 113 119 482 117 123 115 125 480
Operating Mogin 32.9% 32.0% 31.1% 32.2% 32.1% 33.1% 31.9% 30.3% 32.9% 32.0%
% Change 13% 21% 15% 28% 19% 3% 6% 2% 5% 4%
Specialty Fluids & Intermediates 95 118 90 61 384 64 98 85 85 310
Operating Margin 15.7% 17.4% 14.5% 10.3% 14.6% 10.6% 15.2% 13.1% 10.5% 12.4%
% Change 30% 22% (6%) (34%) 1% (33%) (19%) (6%) 7% 05%1
Segment Operating Profit 421 470 424 350 1665 393 458 435 399 1,685
% Change 7% 9% (1%) (2%) 3% (7%) (3%) 3% 14% 1%
Other 118) (18) (19) (21) (74) (10) (171 (14) (14) _1551
Operating Profit 403 454 405 329 1,591 383 441 421 385 1.630
Operating Margin 17.5% 18.6% 17.3% 14.5% 17.0% 16.6% 17.9% 17.4% 16.4% 17.1%
% Change I I% I.7% 2% 1% 7% (5%) (3%1 4% 17% 2%
Pro Forma/Actual EBITDA
Aostives & Functional Products 501 513
EDEMA ...Alvin 29.1% 28.8%
% Change 2% 2%
Adhesives &Plasticizers 218 230
E8ITOA Margin 16.4% 18.7%
% Change (29%) 6%
Advanced lithteriais 404 443
E81TOA Margin 17.2% 19.7%
% Change 16% 10%
Fibers 527 545
5BIWA Margin 36.6% 36.3%
% Change 15% 3%
Specialty Fluids & Intermediates 444 395
EMMA Mngln 17.8% 15.8%
% Change 1% (11%)
Segment EBITDA 2.094 2.126
% Change 3% 2%
Other 1701 (511
EBITDA 2.024 2.075
E8trOA Margin 21.6% 21.8%
% Change 5% 3%
Interest Expense 147) 148) (441 143) 1180) 142) (451 147) 147) 4181)
% Change 147% 142% (8%) (10%) 34% (11%) (7%) 7% 9% 1%
Other Income (E sponse) It) 0 (t) It) 43) 3 8 0 0 II
Pretax Income 355 408 380 285 1.408 344 404 374 338 1,480
Pretax Margin 15.4% 16.7% 15.4% 12.8% 15.1% 14.9% 16.4% 15.4% 14.4% 15.3%
% Change 38% 36% 2% 0% 18% 13%1 II%) 4% 19% 4%
Taxes 1101) 1124) 1981 172) (393) 198) 4112) 4105) 195) 1407)
Tax Rate 285% 30.4% 26.7% 25.3% 27.9% 27.9% 27.7% 28.0% 28.0% 27.9%
Net Income Attributable to
Noncontrolling Interests III 12) 111 (3) In (1) 12) 11) (3) I7t
Net Income 253 282 283 210 1,008 247 290 288 240 1,048
ScieryDevriche have *omen fume
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 11
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Eastman Chemical
Figure 15: Eastman Annual Cash Flow Statement 2011-2015E ($ in millions)
2011 2012 2013 WA GM 2014E 2016E
Operating Activities:
Adjustments to Reconcile Net
Income to Cash From Operations
Net Income 8696 5444 51.172 5234 5294 51046 $1,138
Depreciation and Amortization 273 360 433 107 110 445 465
Deferred Income Taxes 11 48 331 32 29 185 185
Mark-to-Market Pension &OPEB (Gains) Losses 1.1/ (383)
Pension and OPE B Contributions in Excess
of Expenses (149) (121 (331 (131
Variable Compensation in Excess of Expenses 26 82 (931 40
Asset Impairment Charges 28 8 0
(Gain) Loss On Sale of Assets/Investments
Other 0 (5)
Change in Operating Assets and Liabilities
Working Capital (Increases) (370) 96 (46) (255) (34) (7) 150;
Other 85 (42) (1711, (51) 18 (1251 (1251
Cash Flow From Operations 625 1.128 1.297 (301 419 1,408 1.478
Free Cash Flow
Cash F low F rom Operations 625 1,128 1,297 (30) 419 1,408 1,478
Less: Capital Expenditures (457) (465) 14831 (122) (132) (5751 (600)
Free Cash Flow 168 663 814 (152) 287 833 878
Less: Dividends (136) (192) 1140) (53) (53) (212) (226)
Free Cash Flow (ENT! Definition) 32 471 674 (205) 234 621 652
Investing Activities:
Capital Expenditures (4571 (465. (483) (122) (132) (575) (600)
Acquisitions (156) (2,6691 (283) (370)
Proceeds from Sale of Assets & Investments 651 207 31 4 8
Additions to Short-Term Time Deposits (200)
Additions to Capitalized Software (9) (5) (5) (1)
Other 29 (30 2
Total Investing Activities (142) (2,9621 (457) (119) (405) (945) (600)
Financing Activities:
Inc. IDecrt in UT Debt (2) 1,645 (955) 125 366 249
Inc. IDecr.) in S/T Debt 1 11) 425 257 (231)
Dividends (136) (1921 (140) (53) (53) (212) (226)
Purchase of Treasury Stock 1316) (238) (260) (100) (500) (600)
Dividends Paid to Noncontrolling Interim- (10) (3) (6)
Proceeds from Stock Option Exercises 32 (2)
Other 30 52 59
Total Financing Activities (423) 1,504 (859) 98 (27) (463) (826)
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash 1 2 7 (1) 3
Increase (Decrease) in Cash 61 (328' (12) (52) (10) 0 52
soon, yountrie snit exiinan (omen
Page 12 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
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29 July 2014
Chemicals Specialty
Eastman Chemical
Figure 16: Eastman Annual Balance Sheet 2011-2015E ($ in mill ens)
2011 2012 2013 Q1A 02A 2014E 2015E
Assets
Current Assets
Cash and Equivalents $777 $249 $237 $185 $175 $237 $289
Accounts Receivables 632 846 880 998 880 915
Wise receivables 72 151 208 169 208 208
Inventories 779 1,260 1,264 1,377 1,285 1,323
Other Current Assets 42 88 251 220 251 251
Total Current Assets 2,302 2,594 2,840 2,949 2,861 2,986
Net Property, Plant and Equipment 3,107 4,181 4,290 4,301 4,790 4,925
Good ill and Intangible Assets 406 4,493 4,398 4,374 4,398 4,398
Other Noncurrent Assets 369 351 317 323 317 317
Total Assets 6,184 11,619 11,845 11,947 12,366 12,626
Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity
Current Liabilities
Short-Term Debt $153 S4 $0 $0 $0 $0
Accounts Payable 529 723 762 729 776 799
Accrued Liabilities 146 171 205 83 205 205
Accrued Income Taxes 40 76 80 65 80 80
Post-Employement Obligations 58 62 59 56 59 59
Interest Payable 26 59 46 36 46 46
Other Current Liabilities 162 269 318 290 318 318
Total Current Liabilities 1,114 1,364 1,470 1,259 1,484 1,507
Long-Term Debt 1,445 4,779 4,254 4,635 4,773 4,503 4,503
Deferred Income Taxes 210 91 496 546 681 866
Post-Employment Obligations 1,411 1,856 1,297 1,301 1,037 777
Other Long-Term Liabilities 134 501 453 398 453 453
Total Liabilities 4,314 8,591 7,970 8,139 8,158 8,105
Shareholders' Equity
Common Stock 2 2 2 2 2 2
Additional Paid-in Capital 900 1,709 1,778 1,795 1,778 1,778
Retained Earnings 3,436 3,038 4,012 4,191 4,846 5,758
Accumulated other comprehensive loss (538) 123 171 168 171 171
Treasury Stock (1,930) (1,929) (2,167) (2,427) (2,667) (3,267)
Noncontrolling interest 85 79 79 79 79
Total Shareholders' Equity 1,870 3,028 3,875 3,808 4,209 4,521
Total Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity $6,184 $11,619 511,845 $11,947 $12,366 $12,626
£Yb,Y,
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 13
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29 July 2014
Chemicals / Specialty
Eastman Chemical
Appendix 1
Important Disclosures
Additional information available upon request
Disclosure checklist
Company Ticker Recent price• Disclosure
Eastman Chemical EMN.N 81.52 (USD) 29 Jul 14 14,15,17
'Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Routers. Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies
Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators
Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.
See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes.
14. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received non-investment banking related compensation from this company
within the past year.
15. This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year, during which time it received
non-investment banking securities-related services.
Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. Regulators
Please also refer to disclosures in the Important Disclosures Required by US Regulators and the Explanatory Notes.
17. Deutsche Bank and or/its affiliate(s) has a significant Non-Equity financial interest (this can include Bonds,
Convertible Bonds, Credit Derivatives and Traded Loans) where the aggregate net exposure to the following
issuer(s), or issuer(s) group, is more than 25m Euros.
For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this
research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our
website at http.//gm db com/ger/disclosure/Disclosure eqsthicCode=EMNI1
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s) about the
subject issuer and the securities of the issuer. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive
any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. David Begleiter
Page 14 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
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29 July 2014
Chemicals / Specialty
Eastman Chemical
IHistorical recommendations and target price: Eastman Chemical (EMN.N)
(as of 7/29/20141
100.00 Previous Recommendations
90.00 Strong Buy
Buy
80.00 Market Perform
Underperform
70.00 Not Rated
Suspended Rating
8 60.00
Current RecommemIntint$
4 50.00 Buy
40.00 Hold
Sell
30.00 Not Rated
Suspended Rating
20.00
•New Recommendation Structure
as of September 9,2002
10.00
0.00
Au 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12 Nov 12 Isktel3 May 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 May 14
1. 09/16/2011: Buy, Target Price Change USD95.00 6. 02/)3/2013: Buy, Target Price Change USD85.00
2. 10/31/2011: Buy, Target Price Change USD48.00 7. 07/30/2013: Buy, Target Price Change USD100.00
3. 07109/2012: Buy, Target Price Change USD63.00 8. 10/28/2013: Buy, Target Price Change USD95.00
4. 10/28/2012: Buy, Target Price Change USD70.00 9. 0028/2014: Buy, Target Price Change USD100.00
5. 12113/2012: Buy, Target Price Change USD80.00
Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships
Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total 500 0
share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in 450
share price from current price to projected target price 4C0
350
plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that 3C0 55 %
investors buy the stock. 250 38%
2C0
Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share- ISO
holder return, we recommend that investors sell the ICO
1 %31 %
50
stock 0
Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months Buy Hold Sell
out and, based on this time horizon, do not
recommend either a Buy or Sell. @Companies Covered aCce. w/ Banking Relationship
Notes:
North American Universe
1. Newly issued research recommendations and
target prices always supersede previously published
research.
2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:
Buy: Expected total return (including dividends)
of 10% or more over a 12-month period
Hold: Expected total return (including
dividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12-
month period
Sell: Expected total return (including dividends)
of -10% or worse over a 12-month period
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 15
EFTA01100361
29 July 2014
Chemicals / Specialty
Eastman Chemical
Regulatory Disclosures
1. Important Additional Conflict Disclosures
Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the
"Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.
2. Short-Term Trade Ideas
Deutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas (known as SOLAR ideas) that are
consistent or inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer term ratings. These trade ideas can be found at the
SOLAR link at htto://gm.db.com.
3. Country-Specific Disclosures
Australia and New Zealand: This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the
meaning of the Australian Corporations Act and New Zealand Financial Advisors Act respectively.
Brazil: The views expressed above accurately reflect personal views of the authors about the subject company(ies) and
its(their) securities, including in relation to Deutsche Bank. The compensation of the equity research analyst(s) is
indirectly affected by revenues deriving from the business and financial transactions of Deutsche Bank. In cases where
at least one Brazil based analyst (identified by a phone number starting with +55 country code) has taken part in the
preparation of this research report, the Brazil based analyst whose name appears first assumes primary responsibility for
its content from a Brazilian regulatory perspective and for its compliance with CVM Instruction # 483.
EU countries: Disclosures relating to our obligations under MiFiD can be found at
htto://www.alobalmarkets.db.com/riskdisclosures.
Japan: Disclosures under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law: Company name - Deutsche Securities Inc.
Registration number - Registered as a financial instruments dealer by the Head of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau
(Kinsho) No. 117. Member of associations: JSDA, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association, The Financial Futures
Association of Japan, Japan Investment Advisers Association. Commissions and risks involved in stock transactions - for
stock transactions, we charge stock commissions and consumption tax by multiplying the transaction amount by the
commission rate agreed with each customer. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of share price fluctuations
and other factors. Transactions in foreign stocks can lead to additional losses stemming from foreign exchange
fluctuations. "Moody's", "Standard & Poor'?, and "Fitch" mentioned in this report are not registered credit rating
agencies in Japan unless Japan or "Nippon" is specifically designated in the name of the entity. Reports on Japanese
listed companies not written by analysts of Deutsche Securities Inc. (DSI) are written by Deutsche Bank Group's analysts
with the coverage companies specified by DSI.
Malaysia: Deutsche Bank AG and/or its affiliate(s) may maintain positions in the securities referred to herein and may
from time to time offer those securities for purchase or may have an interest to purchase such securities. Deutsche Bank
may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed herein.
Qatar: Deutsche Bank AG in the Qatar Financial Centre (registered no. 00032) is regulated by the Qatar Financial Centre
Regulatory Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - QFC Branch may only undertake the financial services activities that fall
within the scope of its existing QFCRA license. Principal place of business in the QFC: Qatar Financial Centre, Tower,
West Bay, Level 5, PO Box 14928, Doha, Qatar. This information has been distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related
financial products or services are only available to Business Customers, as defined by the Qatar Financial Centre
Regulatory Authority.
Russia: This information, interpretation and opinions submitted herein are not in the context of, and do not constitute,
any appraisal or evaluation activity requiring a license in the Russian Federation.
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia LLC Company, (registered no. 07073-37) is regulated by the
Capital Market Authority. Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia may only undertake the financial services activities that fall
within the scope of its existing CMA license. Principal place of business in Saudi Arabia: King Fahad Road, Al Olaya
District, P.O. Box 301809, Faisaliah Tower - 17th Floor, 11372 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
United Arab Emirates: Deutsche Bank AG in the Dubai International Financial Centre (registered no. 00045) is regulated
by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Deutsche Bank AG - DIFC Branch may only undertake the financial services
activities that fall within the scope of its existing DFSA license. Principal place of business in the DIFC: Dubai
International Financial Centre, The Gate Village, Building 5, PO Box 504902, Dubai, U.A.E. This information has been
distributed by Deutsche Bank AG. Related financial products or services are only available to Professional Clients, as
defined by the Dubai Financial Services Authority.
Page 16 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
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Chemicals / Specialty
Eastman Chemical
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 17
EFTA01100363
David Folkerts-Landau
Group Chief Economist
Member of the Group Executiva Committee
Guy Ashton Marcel Cassard Richard Smith and Steve Pollard
Global Chief Operating Officer Global Head Co-Global Heads
Research FICC Research & Global Macro Economics Equity Research
Michael Spencer Ralf Hoffmann Andreas Neubauer Steve Pollard
Regional Head Regional Head Regional Head Regional Head
Asia Pacific Research Deutsche Bank Research, Germany Equity Research, Germany Americas Research
International locations
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Sydney, NSW 2000 Tel: (49) 69 910 00 Hong Kong Japan
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Tel: (61) 2 8258 1234
Deutsche Bank AG London Deutsche Bank Secunties Inc
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London EC2N 2EO New York, NY 10005
United Kingdom United States of America
Tel: (44) 20 7545 8000 Tel: II) 212 250 2500
Global Disclaimer
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Cops0;1402014 Dustastps Bank AG
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