31 May 2015
Integrated Oil
US Integrated Oils
Other Risks to the Outlook
Global oil demand and Decline Rates
Our base case assumes global product demand growth of 1.2 Mb/d in 2016
and 2017. To date in 2015, demand has generally surprised to the upside, with
gasoline demand growth in the US (+2% YoY) stronger than anticipated, while
Europe and Asia have also shown surprisingly robust growth. 10%+
incremental upside to YoY product demand growth results in a -+100 mbpd
increase in the 2017 implied call on US onshore crude growth. On decline rates,
we assume an average global decline rate of 1/4%/yr. We estimate a swing of
150 mbpd in the 2017 implied call on US onshore crude growth call for each
1/4% change in modeled decline rates (ex-US onshore and OPEC and
compounded from 2015+).
'Figure 59: 2017 Call on US Crude Onshore Growth (YoY) 'Figure 60: 2020 Call on US Crude Onshore Growth (YciY)
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Figure 61: A +5% premium to '17 demand growth Figure 62: A +1/4 0,10 revision to modeled Non-OPEC
increases implied onshore crude growth by -50 mbpd decline rates increases implied onshore crude growth by
-150 mbpd in 2017 over our base case
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