EFTA02135422

From: Ike Groff Sent Wed 6/12/2013 9:55:01 AM Subject Early Tour 6.12.13 Good Morning ... European Markets up 0-40 bps (Turkey +2.1%, Spain +1.4%, Norway +0.91%, Germany -0.15% )... ASX -0.68%, NKY225 -0.21%, KOSPI -0.56% EUR 1.3278 (-0.26%) JPY 96.57 (-0.56%) EUR/JPY 128.24 (+0.32%) AUD 0.9536 (+1.16%) NZD 0.7964 (+1.15%) Spain 10yr 4.57% Italy 10yr 4.30% Portugal 6.27% Germany 10yr 1.60% Japan 10yr 0.88% US 10yr 2.18% Futures: Dow +62, Nasdaq +9, S&P +7 DXY 581.21 (+9c) Crude $95.44 (+6c) Gold 51376.40 (- 60c) Copper +0.86% Silver +0.41% Asia muted overnight with China, HK, Taiwan, Philippines all closed for holidays. Japan kept it interesting after gapping lower on the open following overnight moves in the JPY but the Nikkei grinded higher in the PM session and briefly traded in positive territory before closing -0.21%. Sentiment was helped by the JPY weakening back > 96.50 level and the Nikkei holding 13k. Retail seemed to have been active with Mothers +2.4%, but also chatter that BOJ could have started buying ETFs (since Topix was down >1% at break) helped lend support. Australia ended lower ahead of tomorrow's employment data. India is currently on lows after economic data disappoints with April IP coming in at 2.0% vs. expectations of 2.4%, and May CPI was +9.3% vs. consensus view of +9.0%. ASEAN markets remain broadly under pressure with Singapore - 0.47%, Malaysia -0.57%, Thailand -1.09% and Indo -1.3%. European markets generally flat to up small in choppy trading (Germany lags -0.15%) Emerging markets have stabilized this morning after the sharp sell-off yesterday, helping sentiment. Media outperforms (SXMP +0.92%) after Vodafone confirms a much anticipated preliminary approach to Kabel Deutschland (KD8 GY +8.3%). In retail: Inditex is out with inline #'s and after opening lower buyers have stepped in and pushed the stock +3.0% on the day -- H&M sales also out this morning and were slightly disappointing but stock has recovered off the worst levels of the session and is now — flat on the day due to short covering. Autos underperforming (SXAE -1.67%) after UBS downgrades Fiat and Volkswagen announces a convert (looks like Daimler coming out with some cautious comments right now as well). US 10yr yield back < 2.20% and SPA's are on the morning highs +7 handles = 1634.50 last. EFTA_R1_00783643 EFTA02135422 ***FTSE UK Index Series changes announced after close, Russia closed today*** ***Piper Consumer & DB Industrials & Materials conferences begin••• ***Monthly Budget Statement @ 2pm, HRB & PVH report after the close*" • Coty IPO pricing today (57.1 million shares, $16.50-$18.50 range) via BofA, JPM, MS (COTY) • Herbalife: Nielsen survey of 10k people suggests 7.9M end users in US within past 3 months • Apple bonds lose 9% in six weeks as sharp turn in treasury rates hits corporate bonds (E) • Liberty Global announces $3.58 buyback program over next 2 years (Class A & C shares) • Vodafone confirms that it has made preliminary approach to Kabel Deutschland (KD8 GY +8.3%) • Inditex Q1 net & rev inline, EBIT slight ahead, higher inventories may weigh (trading +3.0%) • H&M Q2 sales slight light, May same store sales flat vs expected +0.9% (trading -0.10%) • Sainsbury Q1 LFL sales ex-fuel inline, solid online, non-food good, outperforms peers (trading +0.60%) • ASOS O3 total sales growth inline, solid across all regions, positive on FY outlook (trading +1.8%) • SAS O2 revs slight below, remains on course to deliver positive income by year end (trading +0.70%) • Antofagasta 2013 performance inline, challenging environment, significant cost pressures (trading +0.40%) • Axel Springer: Good Media places 2.8% stake (2.77M shares) © E32.18 = 5% discount (trading - 4.0%) • Gemalto elected by Softbank to further expand Japan's mobile NFC ecosystem (trading -0.15%) • Norsk Hydro sees reduced Alunorte O2 output due to power outages (trading -1.0%) • Technicolor planning refinancing to improve their financial structure (trading +5.0%) • Sandvik's Materials Technology takes further restructuring charges, hits Q2 order intake (trading +0.40%) • BAE Systems nominate former CBI head Carr as successor to Olver as chairman (trading +0.10%) • Severn Trent; Borealis lead consortium walk away from bid as deadline expires (trading -7.6%) • Generali sells minority stakes in Mexican companies to Seguros Banorte for $857.5mn (trading ) • Invensys: ex-dividend 76.70p and 4:5 stock consolidation takes effect today (ISYS LN trading - 3.4%) EFTA_R1_00783644 EFTA02135423 • MSCI classification changes: Greece (DM to EM), Qatar & UAE (FM to EM), Morocco (EM to FM) • Eurozone April industrial production +0.4% m/m vs est +0.0% (-0.6% yly vs est -1.2%) • CPI's: May consumer price index for Germany, Spain, Italy out this morning (all look inline with ests) • UK May jobless claims -8,600 vs est -5,000 (ILO Unemployment Rate 7.8% versus estimate 7.8%) Leading European Sectors: Media +0.97%, Utilities +0.86%, Fin Services +0.80% Lagging European Sectors: Autos/Parts -1.61%, Construction -1.03%, Tech -0.17% ULTA profit beats ests - OXM cuts top end yr revs — PRU $16 buyback RMBS patent license agreement — YUM sss drop slowed — CTS buyback Secondaries (announced/priced): CLVS, IEP, NCT, FSLR, CSOD (convert), POR, WDAY (convert), SPR GY, ARCM SS, NEX LN, VOW3 GY (convert) IPO's (filed/priced): Gigamon (GIMO) 6.75M shares priced at $19 (middle of range), Coty pricing today (57.1 million shares, $16.50-$18.50 range) IPO's (lock-up expires): Vipshop Holdings (VIPS) US Key Research: • Barcap initiate FRC (ow) & SIVB (ew), Bernstein downgrades DF, Citi downgrades BIIB e Atlantic downgrades USBNVFC, GS upgrades SAM and APO (buy) & cuts LM (sell) MS upgrades SE/SEP, KBW upgrades LEN, HSBC upgrades AWK, Opco initiates BOBE (op) • Sterne Agee initiates AMRI/MDAS/CRUMDRX (buys) & CERN/ATHN/CVD/ICLR/PRXUQSII (neuts) & Q/GWAY (up's) Piper upgrades BG, Stifel initiates MTW/TEX (buys), JPM upgrades PX, RBC cuts PRU, Raja upgrades THOR Europe Key Research: EFTA_R1_00783645 EFTA02135424 JPM upgrade TUPRS TI, +ve SAB LN, initiate WRT1V FH (ow), DB initiate RMV LN (h) • UBS dig F IM, add NOBN SW to least pref list — remove STMN SW, Oriel upgrade GPOR LN BofAML upgrade APN SJ, Citi remove F IM from least pref list — add NRE1V FH, HSBC downgrade BVT SJ Bare upgrade LLOY LN, RBS LN, downgrade DMGT LN, MS upgrade UG FP, BW IM, downgrade HEI GY KepChev downgrade LHA GY, NK FP, Banca IMI upgrade MS IM, ES IM, Cantor resume OCN LN (b) • RBS downgrade ECM LN, Natixis upgrade SW FP, Cana downgrade ASC LN • GS remove VOE AV & SDR LN from cony buy list, Danske downgrade YAR NO Reporting Pre-Open: AGYS, RLOG Reporting Post-Close: HRB, PVH, SIGM, CFI, FIVE, LUB, MW Economic Data: MBA Mortgage Applications © 7am, Monthly Treasury Budget Statement © 2pm DOE crude oil inventories @ 10:30am, Treasury Auction of 10-Year Notes @ 1pm ($21B) Conferences: MS Financials (NYC), GS Healthcare (Rancho Palos Verdes, CA), Piper Consumer (NYC), DB Industrials & Basic Materials (Chicago) Analyst/Investor Days: EA, AXS, CODI, TAP, DSCI, EKTAB SS, WPP LN, ANTO LN, RHK GY, ASC LN Non-Deal Roadshows: AAWW, AIG, ANGI, AOS, BGC, BIOS, BLDR, BWLD, CA, CINF, CSGS, CTSH, DEI, DRC, EXPE, IMPV, IVZ, JPM, KAR, LPX, MET, METR, NSM, ONE, PBCT, PKD, PSMI, STSA, SWI, TAL, USTR, VZ, WBS, XXIA Shareholder Meetings: CAT, CBST, BIIB, CETV, KAR, PBY, UAL, COWN, GNRC, LSE, PENN, PGNX, PHH, PTGI, SAVE, SONS, SSTK, WTT, CADX, FCFS, S, SF, SNDK, ZIXI, BGMD, CERS, EFTA_R1_00783646 EFTA02135425 PGI, MOVE, TLYS, APPA, CELG, ENSG, MGM, RATE, SGMO, STMP, WBSN, TGT, CROX, NYMX, AGEN, MGRC, PCTI, MENT Equity/Mixed SheIfs: RSE ($400M), REE ($50M) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's cautious: Lululemon (LULU) Barron's WSJ cautious: Lululemon (LULU) WSJ • Emerging market assets suffer in fierce sell-off FT • Fears of QE3 slowdown drive Treasury rates up FT • Sir Roger Carr confirmed as BAE chair FT • Tech groups urge US to ease security gag FT • Glencore picks former Morgan Stanley boss John Mack for board FT • Dimon pledges to fight 'whale' suits FT • Bundesbank in court clash with ECB over bond-buying plan FT • Nick Clegg to announce drive to narrow gap in UK regional growth FT • Sahaviriya Steel UK turns to British coal to fire Redcar furnaces FT • Bloomberg proposes $19.5bn NY storm plan FT • Microsoft: X marks the box Lex • Severn Trent: water under the bridge Lex • Remy Cointreau: Chinese conundrum Lex • The overstated inflation danger FT (Comment) • America: Church versus state FT (Analysis) • A tech arms race is pitting states against their citizens FT (Opinion) • Global Tumult Grips Markets WSJ EFTA_R1_00783647 EFTA02135426 • SEC Alleges 'Systemic' Lapses in Oversight at CBOE WSJ • U.S. Hardens Tone Toward Iran as Election Nears WSJ • Facebook CEO Gets a Grilling From Investors WSJ • Dole's 90-Year-Old CEO Plots $1.5 Billion Buyout WSJ • The Fed's Eminent Mistake WSJ (Opinion) • Separating the Biotech Wheat From the Chaff WSJ (Opinion) • Personalised cancer files to save thousands of lives The Times • The 'Apple of coffee' loses its grip The Times • America's recovery is not ours, warns Bank official The Times • Savers face more gloom as NS&I cuts interest rates The Times • Labours great surrender on public spending The Times (Opinion) • 'The worst case of scientific censorship since the Catholic Church banned the works of Galileo': Scientists call for drugs to be legalised to allow proper study of their properties Independent • Underpaid and underworked: Real legacy of recession is falling wages and productivity Independent • Satyajit Das: China must not follow Japanese path of growth and stagnation Independent (Comment) • Britain losing business 'every minute' due to Chinese visa rules Telegraph • Banks' PPI deadline talks collapse Telegraph • Germany's brother gladiators battle over euro destiny in constitutional court Telegraph • Greece shuts state broadcaster in shock move to cut costs Telegraph • Wage cuts for British workers deepest since records began, IFS shows Guardian • Latvia: the eurozone member-elect whose growth is the envy of them all Guardian • The US farm bill is a corporate victory and a slap to struggling Americans Guardian (Comment) Key Events This Week Thursday: Advance Retail Sales, Import Price Index, William Blair Growth Stock Conference (Chicago), BMO Fixed Income Insurance Conference (Toronto), Earnings (RH, CASY, RENT) EFTA_R1_00783648 EFTA02135427 Friday: PPI, IP, Michigan Confidence, Preliminary adds/deletes to the Russell indexes published after 6pm EST, Earnings (SFD) Key Events on the Horizon June 19 — FOMC rate decision June 21 — Updates to the lists of adds/deletes for the Russell Rebalance, FTSE UK Index Series & EuroStoxx 600 adds/deletes on close, Options Expiration June 28 — Russell Rebalance on the close July 1 — Mark Carney takes over as BOE Governor July 10 — Fed Minutes from June 18/19 FOMC meeting July 11 — BOJ rate decision July 31 - FOMC rate decision September 18 — FOMC rate decision September 22 — German elections EFTA_R1_00783649 EFTA02135428 Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd I Stamford, CT 06901 I W (203) 302.7300 I This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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