EFTA00390547

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 5.10.13 Date: Fri, 10 May 2013 09:50:07 +0000 Inline-Images: image001.jpg: image002.png La.:Description: Description: Good Morning ... Europe up 20-70 bps (Italy +1.2%) ... NKY +2.93%, SHCOMP +0.62%, HSI +0.47%, ASX +0.15%, TWSE -0.07%, KOSPI -1.75% EUR 1.3010 (-0.25%) JPY 101.32 (-0.71%) EUR/JPY 131.82 (+0.47%) AUD 1.004 (-0.51%) NZD 0.8342 (-0.61%) Spain 10yr 4.24% Italy 10yr 3.89% US 10yr 1.85% Futures: Dow +35, Nasdaq +5, S&P +2 DXY $82.93 (+14c) Crude $95.71 (-68c) Gold $1448.00 (-$20.60) Copper -0.18% Silver -1.34% It was all about Japan again overnight as the JPY weakened > 101 for the first time in 4 years, driving the Nikkei +2.9% to new 5.5yr highs (Topix +5.0% and Nikkei +6.7% on the week, Nikkei now +40.5% ytd). SHCOMP closed +0.62% on the session and is now only -0.98% ytd. China new loan data came out after the close at 792.9B yuan vs est 755B yuan. Hong Kong Q1 GDP also out and comes in less than forecast at +0.2% q/q vs est +0.5%. AUD testing parity after the RBA cut its 2013 inflation forecast and reiterated forecast for below trend growth this year. The Kospi lagged the region -1.75% and gave back yesterday's surprise rate cut gains as exporters slumped on the won strength and Samsung closed -2.57%. European markets higher this morning across the board despite sovereign yields widening a touch and Eurozone banks underperforming on profit taking (aside from some short covering in the Italian banks ahead of Unicredit its @ 12:30 pm GMT). German exports inline with expectations at +0.5% m/m in March. G7 FinMins & Central Bankers meeting today in the UK. Bemanke is speaking this morning in Chicago. SPA's +2 handles = 1626.80 last. "*Bernanke speaks at 9:30am (Chicago), Treasury Budget @ 2pman • Priceline.com posted Q1 beat but profit forecast fell short on sovereign debt concerns (trading -2.5%) • Gap April Comp sales +7% yielded better prelim eps & profit guidance topped ests (trading +6%) • Sotheby's loss doubled (wider than ests) as auction profit margins fell & expenses rose (trading -8%) • Nvidia sales & earnings better than expected as margins strengthened but forecast bit light (trading +1%) • Carter's initiates 16c/share quarterly dividend and approved $300M share buyback plan • Stifel profit down in Q1 due to costs related to acquisitions but global wealth posted records • ABB CEO Joe Hogan leaving for personal reasons, date to be confirmed (trading -1.2%) • Drillisch Q1 profit & EBITDA rise, focus on Freenet unwind, dividend & guidance maintained (trading -1.9%) • Arcelor O1 sales inline, EBITDA beats, net debt inline, reits 2013 guidance, sees improving Q2 (trading +4.6%) EFTA00390547 • BT O1 sales slight ahead, net debt falls, good across all divisions, raising 3yr guidance (trading +11.7%) • IAG O1 op loss worse, revs inline, no op profit guidance for 2013, current trading inline (trading -3.9%) • Tui Travel H1 revs better, div increase, strong Nordic growth, strong momentum continues (trading +1.4%) • Swedish Match: spec that flavored snus will not be affected in new tobacco directive (trading +3.9%) • UK March construction output +12.1% m/m versus est +15.0% (-7.4% y/y versus est -6.6%) • India March industrial production +2.5% y/y versus estimate +2.4% and +0.6% in prior month • Vietnam to cut refinancing rate to 7.0% from 8.0% effective May 13, Sri Lanka cuts reverse repo rate • Panasonic FY net income forecast below, sales forecast light, no div projection for this year • Nissan FY net ahead, sales slight better, operating below, lowering 2014 guidance, ex div Leading European Sectors: Telco +1.64%, Healthcare +0.65%, Tech +0.60% Lagging European Sectors: Trav/Les -0.02%, Construction +0.01%, Food/Bev +0.13% RCKY declares div — BEBE quarterly div — WIFI midpt above ests CFN cuts yr rev view — MDRX sales missed — BBOX raises div CALL #'s light — UBNT eps beat — MBI $20M net loss PANL loss wider — TNGO penny better — MCP loss narrower revs beat Secondaries (announced/priced): SNTS, DSCO, APPY, FSP, TRNX, DDD, APO IPO's (filed): QEP Midstream Partners (QEPM) files for $400M IPO through Wells Fargo Securities IPO's (priced): BioAmber (BIOA) prices 8M-units at $10, Capitol Acquisition Corp II (CLACU) 18M-shares priced at $10 US Key Research: •• Citi downgrades DNDN (sell), GS upgrades GVA, Opco initiates WDAY (op) •• Baird downgrades LOPE, BMO initiates TEVA/ACT/AGN (op) & AGN/MYUFRX (up) ir Wells initiates ENSG (mp) & ESC (op) & upgrades BSX, Janney initiates DDD (buy) •• UBS cuts AES, SocGen upgrades BA, Wedbush initiates ININ (neut) & JCOM/NUAN (op) •• Johnson Rice downgrades MDR, JMP downgrades MU, Canaccord downgrades RCII •• BB&T upgrades SRI (buy), JPM downgrades GEVA, Nat Bank cuts GSS EFTA00390548 Europe Key Research: • JPM upgrade GARAN TI and downgrade SHI LN & YKBNK TI, KBC downgrade AALB NA • UBS upgrade TL5 SM, initiate ASC LN (b), cut AIP SJ from least pref list • Barc downgrade SAP SJ, Citi initiate EVK GY (s), downgrade RTN LN, upgrade YOOX IM • BofAML upgrade BT/A LN, GS upgrade OCDO LN, CS upgrade ASHM LN & SZG GY • CS short list names: AZN LN, EN FP, CARLB DC, CNA LN, BN FP, LXS GY, RBS LN, UU/ LN, WCH GY • CS short list names: SGE LN, SBRY LN, SAND SS, SKFB SS, STAN LN, SWMA SS, SREN SW • MS downgrade GTO FP, DB initiate BAW SJ (s) and downgrade ENRC LN • HSBC initiate INCH LN (ow), uig VASTN NA, DOAS TI, WHA NA, dig EOAN GY, CORA NA, COFB BB SocGen downgrade BES PL, BA/ LN, REP SM & upgrade MGGT LN, MTX GY Reporting Pre-Open: AWR, AXAS, BECN, BTN, CDTI, DRH, EGT, ERF, ETAK, EVEP, GFI, HL, HZNP, LIWA, LMIA, LXRX, MGA, PGNX, RDNT, SIRO, STRL, TRLG, URRE, USAT, VTG, WCRX, XIN, YONG Reporting Post-Close: ADEP, ATEA, BSTC, SLW Economic Data: Treasury Monthly Budget Statement @ 2pm Fed Speakers: Evans @ 8:25am (Chicago), Bemanke @ 9:30am (Chicago), George @ 2pm (Jackson, WY) Conferences: No major conferences Analyst/Investor Days: SWFT, WY, CPT Non-Deal Roadshows: ADNC, AIMC, ALXN, AMRI, BUD, EPAM, FHN, MLM, OREX, PDM, QLYS, SMCI, SPG, SPRD, TRI, WPRT Shareholder Meetings: E, ANDE, ACT, CMLS, CPN, GENT, CYS, CL, CTB, GGP, HVT, MGA, VMC, WMS, BBG, MAR, ATSG, BFS, EDG, ERF, ICUI, MAT, CY, MCRI Equity/Mixed Shelfs: ACRE ($1.5B) EFTA00390549 Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Quest Diagnostics (DGX) Barron's WSJ cautious: Being short Telsa (TSLA) WSJ • Annan report blasts ENRC for costing Congo $725m FT • Hester vows to oversee RBS sell-off FT • Icahn proposes rival proposal to $24bn Dell buyout FT • Fannie Mae's $59bn dividend lifts hopes of US taxpayer profit FT • UK watchdog probes KPMG in fresh blow FT • Google launches YouTube subscriptions FT • Investor warns on lack of capital to develop UK infrastructure FT • Dynasty's end in sight as Bhutto family loses its grip FT • JPMorgan sued over credit card debt collecting FT • Abenomics propels yen weakness FT • Markets Insight: Europe and US lines cross on household debt ratio FT • LNG deal opens door for Texas imports to UK FT • Fannie Mae: cha-ching? Lex • Timken: metal testing Lex • Germany: for richer, for poorer Lex • UK housebuilders: raise the roof Lex • Do not blame democracy for the rise of the populists FT Comment • The time for a decision on Europe is now, not 2017 FT Comment • Yen Leaps Over Milestone WSJ • In London, an Underground Real-Estate Revolution WSJ • Japan Data Suggest Strengthening WSJ • Australia Central Bank Warns of Mining Slowdown WSJ • Bulgarians Disillusioned Ahead of Vote WSJ • Shrinking Budget Forces Army Into New Battlefield WSJ • Co-op Bank chief steps down amid downgrade The Times EFTA00390550 • Kofi Annan turns up heat on ENRC and Glencore in pursuit of Africa's lost tax The Times • RBS 'has £10bn of undisclosed loan losses', claims fund group The Times • Pension age change gave us huge savings, says Osborne The Times • Stay in the EU. It's clearly in our interests The Times Opinion • Mondelez: Looking sweet after all sorts of bust-ups Independent • The rise of designer outlets in the age of austerity Telegraph • 'Manufacturing isn't dead ... we're better than the Germans', says Pailton Engineering's John Nollett Telegraph • Britain's universities should take a lesson from the land of the free Telegraph • 100 of UK's richest people concealing billions in offshore tax havens Guardian • Labour must stand firm: no to a referendum on Europe Guardian Key Events Next Week Monday: Retail Sales, Business Inventories, China FAI/retail sales/IP, Eurozone FinMin meeting, Imperial Capital Consumer Summit (Santa Monica), Earnings (ANTH, TTWO) Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism, Import Price Index, Eurozone IP & ZEW survey, Bofa Global Metals & Mining Conf, Bofa Health Care Conf, Citi Energy/Utilities Conf, JPM Global TMT, UBS Global Financials, Earnings (A, XONE, CACH) Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, US PPI & IP, NAHB Housing Index, Empire Manufacturing, TIC Flows, Bofa Global Transports Conf, Earnings (CSC, DE, ACAT, WAG, M, CSCO, WYY) Thursday: CPI, Philadelphia Fed, Housing Starts, RBC Capital Markets Aerospace & Defense Conference (NYC), Earnings (KSS, WMT, ADSK, AMAT, ARUN, JCP, JWN, SINA) Friday: U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence, Leading Indicators, China April Property Prices, Earnings (BH) Key Events on the Horizon May26/27 — Mayoral elections in 720 cities across Italy June 10-14 —Apple's Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC) in SF EFTA00390551 June 14 — Preliminary adds/deletes to the Russell indexes published after 6pm EST June 21 — Updates to the lists of adds/deletes for the Russell Rebalance June 28 — Russell Rebalance on the close of trading July 1 — Mark Camey takes over as BOE Governor September — German elections Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd I Stamford, CT 069011 It ty]Description: Description: This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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