EFTA00788475

Global Liquid Markets Weekly Bank of America e-a Bitcoin: a new liquid market? Merrill Lynch 24 July 2017 The View: Bitcoin: a new liquid market? Liquid Markets Weekly Global Is bitcoin a currency? A commodity? Neither? A proper store of value like the EUR. T- bills, or gold is measured by 3 factors: safety, liquidity, and return. Diversification is a Francisco Bland. plus. Bitcoin remains very volatile. But it has experienced a surge in liquidity in the last Commodity & Dertv Strategist six months, surpassing $2bn a day. Moreover, bitcoin is uncorrelated to any financial MLPF&S asset, commodity, or currency we study in this note. The flipside of extreme See Team Page foe Ust of Analysts diversification is that there is no way to explain let alone predict returns. Could bitcoin see a virtuous cycle of increased liquidity, lower volatility, attractive returns. and wider acceptance? Possibly, if regulated financial institutions move to allow bitcoin as pledgeable collateral. However, large inherent risks to digital tokens such as fraud, hacking, theft, new protocol adoption, limited acceptance, and that it is not legal tender many places in the world make it an unlikely development. — F Blanch 610 FX: Despacito until the fall More short-term EUR upside, balanced JPY risks, downside for GBP, prepare for higher FX vol this fall, hedge long EM. — A. VarnvakIdls; R. Gal Rates: Trading the central bank aftermath We review yesterday's ECB meeting and its impact on EUR rates. With the tapering discussion implicitly pushed back, the ECB have given the green light to carry trades. With our econ team pushing the first hike to Spring 2019, we stay long Mar19 Euribors. — S. Salim R. Hounhane; E Satko; 6 Moec EM: The girl with the dovish tattoo With the Fed moving to a more dovish stance, solid growth in China and lower geopolitical tensions, inflows into EM continue and despite tight valuations. We like receiving rates in the belly in Brazil, long Indonesia and Turkey local debt and TRY/2AR. We like long EUR/PLN call spread and JPY/KRW as efficient risk off hedges. — C. lrigoyen Commodities: Get ready for a nat gas rally The recent drop in US nat gas prices hard to justify and the underlying fundamentals are painting a far more positive picture. We expect the inventory surplus to be gone early August and end of October stocks at just 3.5 tcf, the tightest since 2008. We re-iterate our bullish call for 2018 US natural gas prices to average 53.50/MMBtu, significantly above the current forward. — S. Schels; F. Blanch 1 je Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not aa absorb suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in FX markets and the financial resources to any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. BofA Merrill Lyndt does and seeks to do business with issuers covered In its research reports. As a 5 result, Investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 26 to 28. 11766548 Timestamp: 24July 2017 0131AM EDT EFTA00788475 Our medium-term views Rationale GIOFX USD is likely to continue to face near-term headwinds as central banks move in tandem towards poky normalisation. eroding the US Wad advantage. Our expectations fora stronger USD by yearend are being challenged as the GOP has not repealed Obamacare. The path of least resistance remains for a weaker JPY as the Bei continues to anchor YCC towards 0%. The ECB has taken the director) of going further towards poky nonalsafion and the risks are building that EURIJSD ends the year closer to $1.20. GBP is stuck in a range and remains a trade on the Brexit deal. Data continues to play a secondary role but we ream a structurally higher vol bias. Scandnavian FX should beneft from a more constructive ECB and we remain directionally long NOK and long SEK volatility. G10 Rates With game' risks fading, we expect EUR duration to move more in line with the (improving) economic data and the effective reduction in the amount of duration the ECB absorbs in Buts through OE (compared to late last year). We see toy term premium as having the potential to rise by another 10-15bp. Very few Technical hkes" are priced in the very fronlend so we Ike paying Jan18 Eonia. However, we view the 30bp of hkes priced by 1019 to be excessive. With tapering inevitable. hvd guidance on rates• beyond any potential technical move early in 2018. would have to be strengthened. We are bearish Gifts on stretched crossmarket valuations and challenging demand 8, sup* dynamics ahead. We like being shod 3y Gilts vs. OIS on Brexit risks and paying 1y2y forward yield in Gifts on midi:upload rate hke risks and RV anomalies. EM While we expect valuations to get more expertsigus long as the DXY is weak or stable. we are watchful of crowded positioning that could be vulnerable. Triggers for a correction could be weakness in the crowded and HY trades in the US. possbly from weaker corporate earnings or conceded ECPSFed tightening in the autumn. We prefer RV trades or idiosyncratic longs in pockets of remaining vake and take out inmate in options formal However. we remain structwally buyers of EM dips. as we believe that growth is likely to continue to outperform relative to DM for a while. Comedies With OPEC cuts working at a slower pace than we expected. we are adjusting our nventery projections. With output set to rise and oft demand disappointing. global balances point to deficits of 210 kbd in 2017 and 90 kbd in 2018. We lower our WTI forecasts to average $47 this year and $50.bbl next year. We cut Brent to $50 this year and $52bbl in 2018. We now beleve oil stays in contango by yearend. but see a WTI forward anchor al $45.50 and S5 backwardation by next summer. Our key forecasts 3017 4Q17 1Q18 2018 3m Libor 1.35 1.60 185 2.10 10y Thole 2.60 2.85 285 245 toy Efund 0.50 0.55 OR 0.60 EUR4JSD 1.10 1.08 1.10 1.10 USD4PY 119 117 117 115 LtSCi•CNY 6.95 7.05 7.10 7.15 USEIRRL 3.35 3.40 145 3.50 USDINR 66.50 66.80 66.30 66.00 USD•RUB 60.00 60.00 63.00 63.00 WTI Crude Oil 44.00 47.00 47.00 47.00 Gild 1.275 1.350 1.400 1350 Safe, gnfAhleff 11t)n,h(iibYRef"..-sol rvermoilities Research What we like right now IX Buy 6M ATM EURSEK straddles: We see a number of key events for the rest of the year wtich should see EURSEK vol rise including ECB and Riksbank meetings as well as the announcement of a new Riksbark Governor. EUR?SEK vol looks cheap on our metrics. Buy EURAJSO out spreads: near.temi headwits for EUFL1JSD are moulting: the Fed remains hawkish & p3sitioring is a constraint. Risks to the trade are further deieriorat& in US data and Fed officials turning more dovish. Buy teionth 102/107 USCUPY out spreads: the upside for USD is likely fmited until there is greater clarity on tax reform. positioning is relatively clean and there are signs that Japanese investors have lately been soling USCL'JPY. Rates In EUR. we like gong long Mar19 Eunbors on ECB Sequencing. We also like peripheral hedges and shod breakevens. In the UK. we pay ty2y Gilt retds. EM Long JPYARW: long USDHKD forward: long INR and IDR against SGD: long OTIA USD callIDR put. long USDKRW 3m NDF points: long EURPLN 3m call. spreads. stay cautious RUB. long TRWZAR: long ARS: shod CLP: neutral BRL. MXN. PEN: long I rontend MXN volatility: construcfive on India: receive China rates: long 15y IndoGB: receive 1.2.5y MYR NDIRS. receive 1.2-5y INR NDIRS: pay Czech 5y. Nand 2yty IRS: long forward steepeners in Turkey swaps: receive Jans19 and Jan21 in Brazil: pay ly IBR and 2y inflation breakevens in Colontia: 2w5y TIIE sleepeners in Mexico: long end of Soberanos Curve. Convnothes We like buying the crude oil dips. We also see a continued run.te in copper. zinc and nickel paces. Still. gold prices could potentially drop further as the USD strengthens and US rates move higher. For a complete list of our open trade ideas and our trade ideas closed, please refer to pace 19. 2 Global Liquid Markets Weekly 124 July 2017 Bankof America 40' Merrill Lynch EFTA00788476 The View Francisco Blanch MLPF&S From metal-backed to fiat to aypto, money keeps evolving The world economy has used different types of currencies as a means of exchange for millennia. From commodity-backed to precious metal-backed to fiat to crypto. the meaning of currency has changed with varying economic needs, political trends, and technological change. For example, salt was once mined and treasured in the ancient world and used a means of exchange. However, commodity-backed currencies were often neither a practical nor a durable means of exchange. So the global economy moved on. Governments coined currency to create standard economic units of account using either precious metals like gold or industrial metals like copper, a practice that continues to this date. Huge deposit discoveries preceded the advent of silver currency The discovery of large silver deposits in Bolivia by the Spanish in the 16th century set the basis for the world's monetary system until late in the 19h century (Chart 1). These silver dollars were the international trading currency of choice for nearly 400 years and kept a stable value relative to gold. The Spanish milled dollar was even used as a standard to set up the US dollar by the Federal Government. However, carrying large amounts of silver or gold was not practical. So the world started to move steadily to paper money, particularly in the last 200 years. At first, most governments maintained an asset or precious metal-backed currency system where paper currency could be exchanged for hard metal at a fixed rate. However, the supply of this money was fixed, creating huge inflationary and deflationary waves in the economy as the business cycle fluctuated every few years (see US example in Chart 2). Chart 1: Silver dollars were the international tracing arrency of choke Chart 2: However, the supply of this money was fixed, creating huge for nearly 400 years and kept a stable value relative to gold inflationary and deflationary waves every few years History of gold and silver price US inflation rate history $1.800 $35 30% annual M. $1.600 $30 25% change $1.400 20% $25 $1.200 15% $1.000 $20 10% $800 $15 5% $600 0% $10 $400 -5% $200 $6 -10% $0 -15% N COON cl'0030N 0'000N mr<DOZI 0) 0— 0 <0 N. CO — NO •O' CD l•-• CO 0) 0 N CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO Or 0 0 01 01 01 01 01 0 -20% —Gold (LHS) Silver (RHS) 2.7agS3Z2S6- MSSZT;MSSCRialIRMET: Source Mco.Elloonterg Source. Minneapolis Fed Macro financial stability considerations propelled flat currencies Following the Great Depression in 1933. the US government moved away from the gold standard domestically and left the economy running solely on silver, in effect a quantitative easing of sorts. Still, international payments were settled in gold. The domestic silver standard was eventually constrained by Kennedy in 1963. as inflation caught up with dollar silver certificates issued by the Treasury. Then Nixon announced in 1971 that the US government would no longer redeem US dollar currency for gold in international markets. A major spike in precious metals prices followed (Chart 3). As of today. most countries have moved to locally minted fiat currencies that have no intrinsic BankofAmenca'," Global Liquid Markets Weekly 124 July 2017 3 Merrill Lynch EFTA00788477 international value other than the full faith of the issuing government In effect, central banks safeguard the value of the fiat currency mainly by complying with their inflation mandate. However, central banks have the ability to create fiat currency at will as long as the pre-established inflation target has not been met (Chart 4). Chart 3: The end of dollar/gold convertibility In 1971 led to a major Chart 4: Central banks safeguard the value of a fiat currency by mainly spike in precious metals prices complying with their inflation mandate, but can create currency at will _ Pit o history of precious metals Total assets of major mutat banks 2000 40 20000 -USD bn USD 800 - 35 18000 1600 - 16000 - 30 1400 - 14000 1200 - - 25 12000 1000 - - 20 10000 800 - - 15 8000 600 - 10 6000 400 - -5 4000 200 CO 0 2000 co .0 1,P.- 03 00 0:1 0) 0 g0)03010101010101 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 It 12 13 14 15 16 17 —Gold — Platinum — Palladium — Silver (RHS) • FED = BOJ • PBoC n ECB Source INoombergioth Memll Lynch Global Research Some FRED- St. LouisFed Bbomberg Technological advancements have enabled cryptocurrencles Decentralized digital cryptocurrencies first came about at the depth of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009 when a group of developers created Bitcoin. The idea of a virtual means of exchange that is controlled by an algorithm and escapes government control certainly has appeal to many. Ever since, cryptocurrencies have expanded in a dramatic fashion by making transactions cheaper and faster. Indeed. cryptocurrencies have a few advantages over fiat currencies, such as the ability to transfer money instantaneously anywhere in the world at a low cost or to code in specific contractual obligations. Also, while paper money is arguably untraceable and digital money can be hard to trace at times, cryptocurrencies allow for full transaction traceability through a digital ledger. also known as a blockchain. True, users in some jurisdictions may remain anonymous, but that is unlikely to be the case for bitcoin trades happening in exchanges based in the US. Europe, or Japan. Now, what turns a digital token into a proper store of value? We would argue that a reserve currency has to meet three "must have" criteria: safety, liquidity, and retum. Also, there are "nice to have" criteria such as diversification benefits. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies score well on some, and not so well on others. Bitcoin does not score well on the safety parameter On the first parameter, safety, it is hard to argue that a crypto token meets the criteria of a reserve currency. On the one hand, the system creates enough incentives for miners to guarantee settlement of bitcoin transactions within hours, compared to 2 or 3 days for conventional securities such as equities or bonds. On the other. the lack of a centralized decision-making process or authority creates risks such as a currency split. If participating coders (also referred to as miners) cannot agree on a solution to a specific problem. a digital currency can break into two. This risk is arguably behind the sharp selloff observed across the cryptocurrency world in recent weeks. Also, risks such as hacking, identity theft or outright scams are a recurring problem. But you could also argue that fiat currency holdings are exposed to them. Most importantly. volatility is the key parameter to understand the concept of safety in a reserve currency, in our view. In that regard. bitcoin's score has improved in recent years as volatility has continued to drop (Chart 5). Still, bitcoin's volatility is very high compared to the euro, the yen or even gold. But it fell twice last year below the volatility of silver (Chart 6), the world's currency for 400 years. 4 Global Liquid Markets Weekly 124 July 2017 Bankof Amenca 40" Merrill Lynch EFTA00788478 Chart 5: Volatility is a key parameter for safety Ina reserve armicy and Chart 6: True, bitcoin's volatility is very high compared to the euro, the blurt vols have been falling for a while yen or even gold, but it is starting to approach silver Annualied STDEV of daily returns 3M-rolling annualized stdev of daily returns 100% 300% 90% 80% 250% 70% - 200% 60% 50% 150% 40% - 30% 100% 20% - 50% 10% - 0% 0% Bitcoin Gold Silver EUR any • Last 5yr Last 4yr • Last 3yr • Last 2yr • Last tyr —Sltcoln —Gold -Silver Source &tombs& Both MentliLynCh Elctd Research Source Blomberg BoWAMm11Lynch Gbbal Research A wide array of risks obscure the future of cryptocurrencles When examining the safety of any asset, volatility is not the only source of concern. In the case of bitcoin and other virtual tokens, worries are magnified given that it is not legal tender in many places in the world or regulated by any government bodies. In fact. decentralization is central to bitcoin. As such, risks like fraud, hacking, and outright theft have plagued the cryptocurrency world in recent years. In particular. the surge in initial coin offerings seems hard to justify and creates a risk of fragmentation in the market. Confidence could suffer if many of these offerings tum out to be outright scams to circumvent investor protection regulations. After all, it is hard to "know your client' if a bitcoin transaction happens through an exchange in an obscure jurisdiction. Other issues more specific to the functioning of cryptocurrencies, such as finding an agreement regarding the adoption of certain protocols, are also worth mentioning. For example. should bitcoin split into two digital tokens because miners cannot find common ground. a collapse in confidence and value could follow. Lastly, it is worth noting that cryptocurrency transactions are taxable in many jurisdictions, presenting additional challenges to users that are unfamiliar with the fiscal implications of using bitcoin. Yet, EM currency pegs and capital controls encourage bitcoin use True, bitcoin is still volatile compared to even Emerging Market currencies. But it is also worth noting that EM FX volatility tends to be artificially suppressed by controls. When looking at 16 countries with severe capital controls based on IMF indicators (Algeria, Angola, China, Malaysia, Tunisia, Cote d'Ivoire. India. Morocco, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Swaziland. Tanzania, Togo, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan), we find that bitcoin is more volatile than these currencies (Chart 7). However, it is not uncommon for these EM currencies to suffer from high inflation rates (Chart 8). When pegged or semi-pegged FX regimes face high inflation or sharp FX reserve drawdowns, steep exchange rate adjustments eventually follow. So the more official and black market exchange rates diverge, the more attractive bitcoin may appear to some as a means of payment and store of value. And the more liquidity and scale bitcoin builds to, the lower the volatility over time, in our view. BankofAmenca ea* Global Liquid Markets Weekly I 24 July 2017 5 Merrill Lynch EFTA00788479 Chart 7: We find that bItcoin is more volatile than the currendes with Chart 8: However, it is not uncommon for these EM currendes to suffer severe capital controls from high inflation rates Annualized STDEV of weekly returns Average inflation rates over the past 5 years 60% 55 50 50% 45 40 40% 35 30% 30 Average inf ation rate for the world 25 over the past 5 years = 2.93% 20% 20 15 10% ......,1,11.._•_11•1. ri<% .8. -4, .4., 4.,.4,e .40 t issp .., et my> cp oe .Oe ae 10 5 0 0-cr#etse,z,c4? _-0 o,.21,1,/.0.0 ..43 „0 4.6v ,„ se ,be „N." .t e> ,,-- o rie sbte secsla-204., x -, .3v 0.9 ,et? 0> et• cp „," e e <te eg „e CR Sarre Bloomberg. Bofn Merrill Lynch00M Ftesea«h Some FRED- St. LouisFed Bbomberg BMA Memll Lynch GlobS Researth Liquidity, however, keeps increasing at a very fast rate Moving on to our second parameter, liquidity, it is hard to ignore that trading volumes for major digital currencies like bitcoin and ethereum have skyrocketed in recent years. For example, daily trading volumes for bitcoin were $400mn in 2012 and have now moved up to about $2bn a day at present (Chart 9). Meanwhile. ethereum had daily trading volumes of $1.5mn when it first launched in 2015 and it is now experiencing daily trading of about $1bn. Most importantly. for a digital token to become a currency. it must build to a certain scale, a bit like the silver mine in Bolivia found by the Spanish. In some ways, this is exactly what has been happening in recent quarters, with the total market value of digital tokens growing exponentially from $1.5bn to around $87bn at present (Chart 10). Put differently, cryptocurrencies have built scale rapidly and are now accepted as a means of payment by some corporations and individuals. Chart 9: Daily trading volumes for bitcoin were $0.04bn In Jan. 2014 and Chart 10: The total market value of bitcoin exploding growing have now moved up to about $1bn a day at present exponentially from $1.5bn to around $43bn at present Daity trading volume for GLD and BItcoln Market cap of cryptocurrencies 6 100 bn USD bn USD 90 5 80 4 70 60 3 50 40 2 30 20 10 0 0 Jan-14 Aug-14 Mar-15 Oct-15 May-16 Dec-16 Jul-17 Ap -13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr, t 6 Apr- 17 —GLD US Equity —Bitcoln ■ Bitcoin • Ethereum • Ripple . Litecoin Source conmarketcap ccol Source corcroketcap corn Returns of cryptocurrencies depend mostly on price appreciation... On our third parameter, there are several ways to look at the return produced by a reserve currency. Because a government issues both debt and currency simultaneously. perhaps the most important measure of value for a reserve currency is the real interest rate (Chart 11). Then there is the term premium, as fixed income markets typically make it more expensive to borrow for longer periods of time. In fact despite quantitative easing, most major currencies like the EUR, the USD, or the GBP maintain a positive 6 Global Liquid Markets Weekly 124 July 2017 Bankof America 40' Merrill Lynch EFTA00788480 spread between their 2 year and their 10 year interest rate (Chart 12). Yet, there are some widely accepted reserve assets like gold or even the WY that do not pay a yield. Chart 11: The most Important measure of value for a reserve arrency is Chart 12: The term premium means that currencies maintain a positive the real Interest rate spread between their 2 year and their 10 year interest 7 Real 10 year yield based on headline CPI 2Y10Y goverment bond yield spread 6 5 4 3 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 —US —Japan —Euro Area — Euro US - UK Source Bloomberg Smoce Bloomberg ...although some exchanges offer a return for borrowing tokens Bitcoin and other digital currencies do not have an interest rate set by a central bank And it is hard to calculate a real interest rate, as there is no specific national inflation metric to match it against However, just like in gold, there is still an interest rate set by the market After all. bitcoin exchanges need digital currency for short lending purposes. Some of the most popular services offer 1% for 14 days and scales to 5% for 1 year. Even then, retums paid by exchanges are arguably more of a credit spread than a real interest rate. Moreover, with volatility in excess of 50% or higher, a 5% return on a cryptocurrency over the course of 1 year as compensation for lending a bitcoin to an online exchange does not seem like a particularly attractive proposition. A key step for bitcoin would be to become pledgeable collateral Still. bitcoin and ethereum have delivered impressive returns so far (Chart 13) as fiat currency flowed into these digital tokens. Is it realistic to assume cryptocurrencies will continue to appreciate over time? The dollar price of gold has appreciated over centuries in line with inflation (Chart 14), but some periods have experienced much faster gold price appreciation than others. Moreover, periods of high real interest rates have been particularly damaging for gold returns in the past. In our view. cryptocurrency returns will mostly depend on the faith placed by individuals, corporations, and financial institutions on this emerging technology. As discussed earlier, there are large inherent risks to digital tokens such as fraud, hacking, outright theft, new protocol adoption. limited acceptance, and that it is not legal tender in many places in the world. Moreover, a crucial hurdle remains. Most regulated financial institutions allow their clients to borrow against financial or physical assets. but we are not aware of any major institution that takes cryptocurrency as collateral at the moment. Thus, in our view, a key step for bitcoin would be for it to become pledgeable collateral. BankofAmencae Global Liquid Markets Weekly 124 July 2017 7 Merrill Lynch EFTA00788481 Chart 13: So far, bitcoin has delivered exceptional returns as flat Chart 14: The dollar price of gold has appreciated over centuries in line currency flowed into these digital tokens with inflation, but returns have fluctuated over the cycle 1 Yearly once returns (Bitcoin) Annual gold returns 600% 140% 120% 500% - 100% 400% - 80% 300% - 60% 40% 200% - 100% - 20% 0% -20% 11 ILI 1) ir 1 1 0% -40% -100% -60% •-• <0 •-• <0 •-• <0 •-• CD •-• <0 •-• <0 •-• <0 •-• <0 •-• <D 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 0 0 el. O N <0 <0 03 03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (YTD) CY CY CY CY Source Bloomberg Saute Bloomberg Note Data avarbbie fromjuly1010 u> current There were almost non puce fluctuations before 1011 Bitcoin correlations to EM and 610 flat currencies are near zero-. Lastly, a financial instrument tends to be more attractive if it offers diversification benefits. In that regard. bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies score well. For starters, we find near zero correlation in weekly returns between bitcoin and fiat currencies (Table 1). Remarkably, while some currency like DXY arid CHF exhibit a correlation of 0.67, bitcoin returns are uncorrelated to any other major EM or G10 currency in our analysis. Table 1: EM and GIO currencies - weekly returns correlation BItcoln DXY EUR JPY GBP MXN CNY KRW CAD CHF Bitcoln -0.04 0.04 4.01 0.05 -0.06 4.04 0.02 0.01 4.01 DXY -0.96 0.45 -0.69 0.33 0.25 025 0.53 0.67 EUR .0.30 0.59 -028 -0.20 -0.25 0.42 -0.62 JPY 4.19 0.02 0.17 0.11 0.14 0.32 GBP -026 822 -0.34 0.44 -0.43 MXN 0.19 0.43 0.55 0.19 CNY 025 0.26 0.14 KRW 0.49 026 CAD 026 CHF Source Bloomberg Bofil blemll Lynch Gobi Research Note Dauasailiok fromiltiy 2010 tocurrenc There~wimps,nopnce flucruauons bete«lot I ...and bitcoin is also uncorrelated to volatile, inflation prone EM FX Arguably. bitcoin is not particularly attractive as a means of exchange in a very large and stable economy like the US that boasts the world's pre-eminent trading currency. But what about emerging markets? After all, bitcoin does not face the same capital controls and banking rules as do some currencies in highly constrained economies. It could potentially deliver low cost fast cross border transactions. We look again at the correlations between EM FX and bitcoin and we find that bitcoin lacks correlation to a whole range of EM currencies (Table 2). 8 Global Liquid Markets Weekly I 24 July 2017 Bankof America e Merrill Lynch EFTA00788482 Table 2: Inflation prone EM FX - weekly returns correlation Bitcoln DZD AOA CNY MYR TND XOF INR MAD PKR PHP LKR SZL TZS UAH UZS Bitcoin 4.07 4.03 403 4.06 0.02 4.02 4.01 4.02 0.03 401 4.06 0.02 4.01 406 .0.07 DZD 0.03 0.32 0.31 0.40 0.49 0.17 0.54 0.06 0.13 0.05 0.27 0.01 0.05 -0.15 AOA 0.25 0.12 0.00 0.01 0.02 1.01 1.03 -0.01 0.00 0.13 0.16 0.01 -0.07 CNY 0.30 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.17 1.01 0.20 0.09 0.26 0.03 0.07 0.01 MYR 0.15 0.23 0.43 0.26 0.02 0.56 0.14 0.45 0.03 1.10 -0.07 TNO 0.77 0.17 0.79 0.06 0.10 0.05 0.31 0.03 1.03 -0.08 XOF 0.22 0.95 0.10 0.16 0.04 0.34 0.03 1.03 -0.09 INR 0.24 0.07 0.45 0.20 0.39 0.00 1.01 -0.14 MAD 0.08 0.17 0.05 0.37 0.04 -0.04 -0.07 PKR 0.07 0.09 0.01 1.05 .0.09 -0.06 PHP 0.15 0.31 0.03 0.01 0.03 LKR 0.05 0.01 0.04 0.03 SZL 0.01 -0.04 -0.05 TZS 0.19 -0.06 UAH -0.01 UZS s.urct, tiii.:niters, Befit Memll Lynch Glohal Research Note Data aattabk fromMy2010 COcurrent_ There were almost no puce flt.ctuations before 2011 Bitcoin correlations to gold, oil, or copper are also about zero The same applies to commodities. While gold and silver maintained a correlation on weekly returns of around 80% since 2011, we do not observe any meaningful correlation between bitcoin and precious, industrial or energy commodities (Table 3). Table 3: Commodities - weekly returns correlation Blicoin Gold Silver Platinum Palladium BCOM Brent Copper Bitcoin 0.05 0.04 _ 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.02 Gold 0.80 0.70 0.35 0.40 0.14 0.26 Silver 0.68 0.46 0.56 0.27 0.44 Platinum 0.60 0.50 0.28 0.43 Palladium 0.44 0.27 0.48 BCOli1 0.74 0.57 Brent 0.34 Copper Sout<e 0gvntr8 Befit Memil LynchGlobal Research Note. Data asailtok fromMy2010 COcurrent_ There were almost noprice flLctuations before 2011 When looking at equities, we also observe minimal correlations Equity markets, partly because of their interconnectedness. tend to move together with average correlations nearing or exceeding 50%. Once more. bitcoin exhibits near zero correlation with all major equity markets around the world (Table 4). Table 4: Equities • weekly returns correlation EURO STOXX Bitcoln .500 MSCI World HSCEI HSI NIFTY 50 Nikkei Bitcoin IL 0.04 0.05 0.02 IMIliale rliarliC • 500 0.96 0.50 0.54 0.51 0.78 0.53 MSCI World 0.58 0.65 0.57 0.85 0.61 HSCEI 0.93 0.60 0.49 0.50 HSI 0.64 0.55 0.56 NIFTY 0.53 0.49 EURO STOXX 50 0.58 Nikkei Source Bbomberg Bak Memil LynchGobi Research Note. Data asailtok fromMy2010 COcurrent_ There were almost no pnce flLcuations before 2011 Sitcom's Is also uncorrelated to Treasury securities or the VIX Lastly, we test the correlation of bitcoin to other liquid markets such as Treasuries and the VIX and our own BofA Merrill Lynch GFSIIU. Once more, the correlation between bitcoin and both near-term and long-term Treasury bonds and breakevens is near zero BankorAmenca.:3" Global Liquid Markets Weekly I 24 July 2017 9 Merrill Lynch EFTA00788483 (Table 5). Interestingly, the correlation of bitcoin to the VIX and to other risk indicators such as the BofAML GFSI is also very low, near zero, but negative (Table 6). Table 5: Correlation between weekly returns of Bitcoln and weekly changes In rates Bitcoln 2YR UST 10YR UST 2YR BE 10YR BE Bitcoln 2YR UST 0.74 •0.08 4.04 10YR UST 0.17 4.01 2YR BE 0.62 10YR BE Source Bbomberg BOK Memll Lynch Global Researdi Note Dacaavaibble from July 2010 co current There were almost no puce flicuations before 2011 Table 6: Correlation between weekly returns of Bitcoln and weekly changes in BofAML VIX and MI Bitcoln VIX BofAML GFSI - Risk BofAML GFSI - Flow B01MAL GFSI — Skew Bitcoln VIX 0.55 0.44 0.66 Bol4ML GFSI - Risk 0.46 0.59 BoIAUL GFSI - Flow 0.45 BofAML GFSI - Skew Clobal Research notr [ca Jo JIL jLI, It, to currenc Therewerealmost no price fl scuanons before 2011 However, bitcoin returns are correlated to other cryptocurrencles To complete ou correlation analysis, we have also looked at the correlation patterns of the 10 major cryptocurrencies by market value. Our work suggests that bitcoin and other digital currencies are correlated for the most part (Table 7), although nowhere nearly as correlated as equity markets are to each other. Moreover, bitcoin and ethereum, the two biggest coins, seem uncorrelated to each other. Table 7: Ctyptocurrencies - weekly returns correlation Ethereum Sitcoin Ethereum Ripple Litecoin Classic Dash NEM Monero Bitshares Shells Bitcoln 0.01 0.21 0.56 0.t4 0.19 0.27 0.23 0.31 0.34 Ethereum 0.04 0.06 0.44 0.34 029 0.18 0.35 029 Ripple 0.60 OAS 4.12 022 0.02 0.35 0.19 Lltecoin 0.07 0.09 022 0.15 0.40 021 Ethereum Classic 0.19 024 .0.07 0.17 0.18 Dash 027 0.20 022 0.13 NEM 0.19 0.33 025 Monero 0.19 0.02 Bitshares 024 Stratis Source Bbomtere, Both memll Lynth Globi Research Note. Daca asailtok from My 2010 CO current There were almost no puce fltcuations before 2011 Rising production costs have supported bitcoin prices for now One final consideration in bitcoin and other digital currencies is their cost of production. Unlike gold. which is mined at a high cost (Chart 15). the marginal cost of creating a new digital token is near zero. This is the reason why the number of cryptocurrencies has risen to more than 900 in recent years. However, the marginal cost of "mining" established cryptocurrencies like bitcoin has increased exponentially (Chart 16) while the rewards for mining are designed to experience a logarithmic decline. The operational and electricity costs required to maintain ledgers have increased as tasks have become more complex. This could change with the advent of quantum computers or through agreements among developers to adopt simpler protocols. Thus, while rising marginal costs of production for bitcoin have been arguably a source of support for prices, falling mining costs for incremental units could also force prices to fall. 10 Global Liquid Markets Weekly 124 July 2017 Bankof Amenca 40" Merrill Lynch EFTA00788484 Chart 15: Gold is mined at a high cost. with most companies facing Chart 16: The marginal cost of "mining- established ayptocutzendes breakevens around 5600/oz on average and 51200+/oz on the margin like bitcoin has increased exponentially Gold production cost curve (CI, C2, and C3 costs) Bitcoin mining diifieully and block chain blocks size 2500 800 1200 US$/oz Giga block size 700 - Difficulty i 1000 2000 600 800 500 1500 400 - 600 1000 300 400 200 200 500 100 - of total production 0 0 0 12 13 14 15 16 0 20 40 60 80 100 — Difficulty Block size (RHS) Source Bloomberg8°1A Memll Lynch Global Research Saute data bitcornicyorg Note. The difficulry is a unit of measurement &signed to indicate how ddficult it is to find a hash bebw the given target Bitcoin faces many hurdles and risks, but liquidity keeps growing So is bitcoin a new liquid market? Certainly. cryptocurrencies score well in terms of liquidity when compared to other assets. But liquidity in equity, fixed income, or currency markets remains a large multiple of bitcoin (Chart 17). Also, while cryptocurrencies are still very volatile and thus not particularly safe, that could change as both their value rises and liquidity increases. Importantly. cryptocurrencies score well when it comes to diversification, as their correlation to equities, bonds, commodities, FX or selected measures of risk is near zero. A big uncertainty facing bitcoin and other digital tokens we see is their expected real rate of return. So far, early adopters have enjoyed a sharp appreciation in prices. While bitcoin seems to have followed a pattern similar to gold over a much more compressed time period (Chart 17), there is no certainty that that will continue and, most certainly, no way to predict it. Also, there are large inherent risks to digital tokens such as fraud, hacking, outright theft, new protocol adoption, limited acceptance, and it is not legal tender in many places in the world. Chart 17: Liquidity in equity, fixed income, or currency markets Is still a Chart 18: It is still early days. but bitcoin seems to have followed a huge multiple of bitcoin pattern similar to gold over a much more compressed time period Daily trailing volume (yearly average) Overlap of bitcoin and gold prices as 30 3000 bn USD 2500 2 25 2000 20 1.5 1500 15 1000 1 500 10 0 0.5 5 NN 01 01 01 01 et et et et LO LO LO LO CO CO CO CO 0. 0- 88888888RRRR8R8RRRRR 0 I 0 CM 0) WOO CO 0) CP, W) Qin IV CV ill 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD 01 01 01 01 01 6-, ass ssss s § RR TLT + HYG GLD Bitcoin —SPY (RHS) — Bitcoin —Gold Source B/oomberg Some Bloomberg Note. Years in parentheses correspond to Bacon Bankof Amenca ea* Global Liquid Markets Weekly 124 July 2017 11 Merrill Lynch EFTA00788485 G10 FX Athanasios Vamvakidis Rohit Garg MLI (UK) Merrill Lynch (Singapore) For a detailed view on global FX markets see: Global FX Weekly Draghi and the EUR EURUSD has been the best performing G10 FX cross so far this year. Although the market is long EUR, positioning is not stretched. EURUSD has appreciated despite the market already knowing that the ECB will have to announce QE tapering and the Fed already hiking more than markets have been expecting this year. The EURUSD move has been consistent with the data and could continue if relative EZ data keeps improving. At first glance, the ECB meeting this week should have not affected the Euro much. First, the EUR weakened as the ECB statement kept the option to do more QE if necessary. Then, the EUR strengthened when Draghi avoided talking the EUR down when he was asked about its recent strength. However, the EUR continued strengthening during and after the press conference, as the market was digesting all information. We believe that on balance the ECB meeting suggests more positive risks for the EUR. The pre-ECB EURUSD level was a key threshold for the market as this was the level at which the ECB used to intervene verbally in the past to express concerns about the strong currency and its negative implications for inflation. By avoiding such statements. Draghi has effectively removed the acceptable EUR ceiling for the ECB. Further EUR appreciation could become easier, as the ECB seems to have given up trying to "control" the currency. In practice, we do not see what policies the ECB could use to weaken the EUR, as they have removed the option to reduce depo rates further and they have to taper QE soon because of the issue limit and the capital key. These policy constraints may explain why Draghi gave up on the currency this week. But something has been lost in the process and the Euro could now appreciate freely if Eurozone data keeps improving. BoJ only dovish major central bank The BoJ left its policy unchanged this week and Governor Kuroda justified the current policy framework amid sluggish price developments. With little expected from the BoJ prior to the meeting, it was a non-event for the FX markets. We expect the BoJ to keep the current policy framework well into 2018. and just wait for policy normalization by the Fed and other central banks. After a round of sluggish data, failure to pass the healthcare bill, and not-so-hawkish Yellen comments, it may take some time before the USD reclaims its upward trend. At the same time, low volatility, high equity price, and policy divergence keep JPY from appreciating, though politics pose some risk We think USD/JPY will eventually rise beyond 115 into the autumn, and we would buy the pair's dip, but also remain concerned about downside short-term risks from a risk-off correction in global markets. Time to sell GBP We see bearish GBP risks mounting. The second round of Brexit negotiations this week show no progress. Press reports suggest that the ELI is not including the UK rebates in its calculation of UK budget contributions post-Brexit, which we believe would be a non- started for the UK In the meantime, the polyphony in the UK government on the Brexit strategy and goals, and high uncertainty about the government's sustainability in its current form continue. 12 Global Liquid Markets Weekly 124 July 2017 Bankof Amenca 40" Merrill Lynch EFTA00788486 Time to buy vol We reiterate our view that market volatility will increase this fall. In this report, we argue that brinksmanship over US tax reform and North Korea could be possible triggers. We add to our long vol trades by recommending buying a 6m EUR/SEK ATM straddle (see below for details). The difficulty in justifying EM longs There is no doubt that the last few weeks have been difficult for investors in deciding which way to lean in EM. On one hand, volatility continues to be depressed, equity markets keep making new highs (or at least are not showing any signs of slowing down) and emerging markets keep receiving inflows. In Best in 5 years we highlight that EM Asia has received the highest YTD inflows in the last 5 years on an aggregate level. On the other hand, positioning, stretched valuations, record low levels of volatility, increased geo-political concerns, uncertainty around US —China trade talks, uncertainty around Fed/ECB actions and, last but not the least, adverse August seasonality is making investors think twice or thrice before putting cash to work. This is despite cash levels being quite high within the investor community. How to hedge ? Our two latest risk off trade recommendations are long 4M USD puts. WY calls with strikes 107/102 (current 37bps) or entering long IPY. short KRW (current 10.017, target 10.4). The obvious risk to these trades is that N Korea backs down from further aggression and engages in talks. A more likely risk is that immediate confrontation is postponed and that EM asset inflows continue to accelerate. We are also long EUR/PLN through options as a hedge. Apart from hedges, we also recommend RV trades or idiosyncratic trades to navigate the current uncertain times. Specifically, we like long INR vs USD via options (current 30bps), long TRY vs ZAR and short CLP vs ARS. Otherwise, China data still kicking and we have a long bias In EM Asia Beyond the above risk factors, China data continues to show strength. 2Q GDP numbers surprised to the upside and the overall economic surprises for China/Asia have so far held up well (Chart 2). This is probably one big reason why, weaker US data has not been able to shake investor sentiment just yet. Consequently, we continue to be long EM Asia through long 6y bonds in India (current 6.66%) and Indonesia (FR73, current 7.40%). We are also constructive on China bonds and believe they are cheap by at least 20 bps. In EEMEA FX, we are short EUR/RON. We are also long EGP as a carry trade. In LatAm FX, we have a bearish bias on COP and MXN on valuations. Chart 19: Aggregate cumulativeInflows into EM Asia debt and equity Chart 20: Economic Surprises for China have held up well so far markets 100 - US Economic Surprise Index 140 — China Economic Surprise Index 2013 —2014 —2015 120 50 llh 41/4 100 fti 80 0 60 4 \ o, 40 -so 20 0 -100 -20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -150 ••• sl• 0 sr It) It) It) It) CI, CCI <0. CO I, - A o- Noses Each line shows fix Indonesia. Thailand Korea the aggregate cumulate& Ott ad equity *t t 00.4 only equty 00.6 for Taiwan ard Phiippines and only debt fkrns for Malaysia Swrce BofA LrxhGlohal Researdt Bloomberg Soiree 8ofA Mend Lynch Global Research Bloomberg Bankof Amenca Global Liquid Markets Weekly I 24 July 2017 13 Merrill Lynch EFTA00788487 Rates Sphla Salim Rualrl Hourthane MLI (UK) MLI (UK) Erjon Satko Gilles Moec MLI (UK) MLI (UK) • The ECB opted for a dovish tone, unanimously maintaining the easing bias in QE and pushing back the timing of a taper decision, with full details unlikely before October. • Draghi's message argues for a slower pace of tightening than what the market is pricing in terms of rate hikes and what investors are expecting in terms of tapering. • If the light was amber for summer carry trades, the ECB has now set it to Green. We are long ERH9. Given the tightening in peripherals, we reiterate our positive carry hedges. The ECB's focus on QE flexibility reinforces our long EU Supras view. ECB economics: Rendez-vous in the fall, whenever that Is The ECB took stock of market movements since the "Sintra speech" and opted for a dovish tone today. We were expecting a more balanced press conference, with in particular the removal of the easing bias on QE. Still, even the dovish tone did not suffice to convince the FX market This could reflects the fact that the market considers the ECB as inevitably on its way to reduce policy accommodation and does not see the possibility of an upgrade in QE as credible, in spite of Draghi's insistence on the flexibility embedded in the programme. Reasons aside, the stronger Euro will be a major issue for the ECB. In fact, its appreciation relative to the June forecasts could force the central bank to revise its inflation projections down by at least 25/30 bps. This, in our view, combined with the very cautious message from Draghi. strengthens our call for a very slow pace of tapering from Jan18 onward, in contrast with investors' expectations (discussed last week and in the FX and Rates Sentiment survey). We continue to think the ECB will opt for a two-step strategy, starting with a fixed quantum of 640bn/month for the first 6 months of 2018, followed by a gradual decline to zero by year end. However, we now change the call on policy rates. So far, we had a one-off deposit rate hike in Dec18. We push it to the spring of 2019 (+20 bps). We thought that shortening the delay between the end of QE and the first hike could be a compromise between hawks and doves in exchange for the ECB being in the market late into next year. We now believe that pressure from financial conditions, and the growing awareness at the ECB of the difficulty to bring inflation back to target, will force them to stick to a "fundamentalist" version of forward guidance. Finally, the ECB today made it clear that they would not pre-commit to a given date for the announcements on the future of QE. simply mentioning "the fall", which, according to Draghi, explicitly includes September. Further, Draghi affirmed that technical committees had not yet been tasked to review the possible options. While we know that the ECB likes to make announcements at the same time as new forecasts become available, we think the central bank will want more visibility and would prefer getting a sense of where market conditions are going throughout September. We think a key input there will be the Fed's decision. A more hesitant Fed, triggering more upward pressure on the euro, would help convince hawks that the slowest possible pace of tapering — scarcity permitting — is the right way to go. In rates, clearest takeaways are for front-end & spreads While the QE easing bias was maintained (unanimously) and the date to discuss tapering was implicitly pushed back, Bunds failed to meaningfully sustain their gains post the policy announcement. Interestingly, Draghi's insistence on the fact that his message in 14 Global Liquid Markets Weekly 124 July 2017 Bankof Amenca 40" Merrill Lynch EFTA00788488 Sintra was no different from that at the June meeting, and that the ECB's focus is still on the weak inflation outlook, had little impact on yields. We believe this confirms our interpretation that the selloff since then was most likely the result of a wake —up call. with term premia readjusting to the new reality of (1) already reduced QE purchases in Germany, and (2) diminished flight to quality bid, past Italian election fears. In that context, we believe that the clearest signals to take away from today's ECB meeting in rates are for peripheral spreads, front-end rates and EU Supras. If the light was Amber for summer carry trades, ECB Just turned It Green The easing bias kept for QE and the delay in the tapering decision, with full details unlikely to be announced before October. buys more time for peripheral carry trades. This, coupled with QE purchases in a low liquidity month. may set the stage for a similar spread tightening as in Aug16, with 150bp seen as next key level for 10y BTP-Bunds. Further, Draghi's reference to spreads having tightened as a reason not to be concerned about recent market price action, and his insistence on the flexibility embedded in QE (currently engineered through deviations from capital keys via Supras purchases) are both opening the possibility for ECB tapering discussions to be less negative than feared for peripheral spreads in the short term. That said, with the 1" principal component of peripheral spreads already back to its tightest levels since QI 2016, and with risks set to pick-up in autumn, we reiterate our recommendation to consider positive carry hedges. such as long 10y swap spreads, short the belly of the 5y10y30y BTP fly and 30y50y BTP flattener. Note that all three positions should be supported by heavy July index extensions in Germany and Italy at the end of next week. The trades are currently priced at 45bp. -30bp and 25bp respectively. The main risk to all is the market turning fundamentally bullish on the periphery. Dovish language supports our long (positive carry) position in Marl 9 Euribor The ECB meeting reinforces our high conviction recommendation to be long Marl 9 Euribor entered on 18-Jul at 100.035 — see Front end — EU (current: 100.065, target: 100.135). Ultimately, with Draghi insisting on "patience and "persistence", and our econ team pushing the first rate hike to Spring 2019, we believe the -30bp of hikes priced by 1Q19 appear excessive. Any delay in the QE decision should allow front-end vol to remain low and Euribors to grind higher over coming months. In this low vol context, the 6.5bp of roll on the trade also appears even more attractive. Interestingly, the Euro rally seen yesterday may actually support the trade even further. With the ECB running out of tools to combat Euro strength, and technical constraints potentially forcing a premature end to QE. forward guidance on rates may have to be explicitly reinforced to avoid an aggressive tightening of financial conditions. The risk to the trade is that the ECB, by choice or otherwise, ends QE in HI and hikes aggressively through 2H18 in order to engineer a rapid exit from negative rates. However, such a scenario appears overly hawkish to us given the 2018 inflation outlook 'When we needed flexibility, we were successful in finding IC: long EU supras When asked about the limited availability of Bunds in the context of a QE extension, and the potential need to up other parts of the programme to compensate for that, Draghi went beyond his usual response that QE changes had not been discussed, and instead affirmed that the ECB could find flexibility in its current programme, as it did before. To us, this reinforces the view that technical changes will be implemented, in particular with an increase in the target for EU Supras. Indeed, it is the inclusion of EU Supras as part of the PSPP that allows a first level of flexibility vs capital keys. National central banks using them as substitute purchases when not enough domestic bonds are available. As a result, we remain bullish EU supras vs Bunds ahead of QE extension, and especially so in the long-end, where valuations vs govies are most attractive. BankorAmenca".* Global Liquid Markets Weekly I 24 July 2017 15 Merrill Lynch EFTA00788489 Emerging Markets Claudio lrigoyen +1 646-855-1734 The girl with the dovish tattoo • With the Fed moving to a more dovish stance, solid growth in China and lower geopolitical tensions, inflows into EM continue and despite tight valuations. • We like receiving rates in the belly in Brazil, long Indonesia and Turkey local debt and TRY/ZAR. We like long EUR/PLN and JPY/KRW as efficient risk off hedges. Enjoy the silence Global interest rates continue driving asset prices in EM, with stronger impact on A( as local rates dynamics have been highly influenced by domestic developments. The change in rhetoric from the Fed, with more focus on the lack of inflationary pressures and less on the dynamics of financial stability (asset pricing bubbles) triggered a bull flattening of the US curve and a weaker USD across the board. Lack of progress in Washington is also helping feed lower rates and the USD. In addition, stronger data in China has help stabilize commodities, favoring commodities exporters within EM. Despite the fact that European rates can still contaminate the dynamics of US rates and through that channel EM asset prices, the global backdrop has become more favorable for EM. In this environment, EM inflows continue but at a lower rate and we have already seen some ETF outflows (Chart 21). Positioning is crowded in some high carry currencies. Valuations are not attractive, which limits the extent of the rally, but cash on the sidelines remains high, suggesting that EM dedicated investors have room to buy the dips. Beware of global rates beyond the Fed Even though the Fed has moved to a more dovish stance last week triggering the bull flattening/weak USD price action, it is fair to say that the change in stance represents more a convergence from the Fed to the market view than a true market repricing of the Fed's policy stance. One more time the Fed capitulated to the market view. The difference is particularly important this time because it implies that the room for a rally in US rates from current levels is certainly more limited. Two additional factors add to that view. First, the repricing to higher global rates was driven to a large extent by European rates (Chart 22). In that particular regard, the ECB tapering next year and how this can impact on the long end of the US curve in addition to the FX channel is a key development to watch. Chart 21: LID cumulative flows since Dec 2010 Chart 22: Change in 2018 rate expectations over the last low weeks 0.3 440 380 0.25 320 0.2 260 0.15 200 140 0.1 80 0.05 20 -40 C Eurodollars Euribors Short Stering Canada Euro Swiss Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 ■ Change in 2018 expedations since 6/20 —Small retail . . ,ETF —High net worth ex-ETF SOME. BoaMerrill Lynch Ciotti Iteseanch Source 8ofA Aleml Lynch Global Researck INoomberg 16 Global Liquid Markets Weekly l 24 July 2017 Bankof America Merrill Lynch EFTA00788490 Second, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the impact the Fed's balance sheet runoff will have on the long end of the US curve. We think the market remains too complacent on how disruptive this can be for financial conditions. An additional consideration could be a new shift from the Fed toward financial stability concerns. Can the Fed be concemed about a strong equity market and by signaling tighter policy induce a correction? As we have elaborated in the past, we think it unlikely, as that is not a credible strategy. If the Fed succeeds, history shows the Fed will backtrack with the idea of delivering the hikes once the stock market retraces. Therefore, the market is right in not believing in that threat. We have discussed that EM FX is more sensitive to global real rather than nominal rates, with long term rates being the most relevant ones for risk premium. A continuation of the recent bull flattening in US rates is positive for EM despite tight valuations. Our fair value model for EM rates Scope 90 recommends flatteners across the board (Chart 23). However, we remain cautious and focus on relative value trades driven by domestic developments. Our US team expects the US curve to steepen from current levels and volatility will likely pick up from excessively depressed levels. Therefore also take the opportunity to initiate some efficient hedges for risk off scenarios. As our Sentiment Survey shows, geopolitical risks are still one of the main risks for investors (Chart 24). What we like in EM In LatAm, we still like receiving rates in the belly of the Brazilian curve (Jan 21) and we closed Jan 19 receivers. We think there is room for some short term bull flattening in Mexico, and we keep paying ly IBR in Colombia and receive 2y Camara in Chile. We stay neutral on most LatAm FX as valuations are not attractive. We like to short MXN at current levels. Positioning is crowded and we expect the economy to decelerate in 2H17. NAFTA and presidential elections risks have been completely priced out In EEMEA. we stay long beta but take out some cheap 3-month protection against a pickup in vol hurting the crowded carry trade. In EEMEA FX, the best hedge is via long EUR/PLN call spread due to positioning and low vol. We see scope for recovery in Turkey local debt and TRY, and like the short-end of local bonds, TRY/ZAR and 2v5 steepeners. CEE reflation remains a medium-term theme, supporting our bullish Zloty bias. We like paying rates, especially in Czech. We rolled over our long EGP into 3m T-bills. In Asia, the weak USD and diminished tensions with North Korea helped KRW price action, so we closed our long 3M USD/KRW. We like long JPY/KRW as an efficient risk off hedge. We like long Indonesian bonds (1Sy IndoGB). We are also overlaying an FX hedge by paying 1x6 NDF points. We like 2m 1x2 USD put/INR call spread. We stay long OTM USD call/IDR put, long IDR+INR vs short SGD. We are biased to pay 12M USD/HKD outright. We are receiving 1-2-Sy MYR NDIRS and 1-2-Sy INR NDIRS. Chart 23: Scope 90 - 2yl0y Chart 24: What are your biggest concerns? 2 2 Geopolilical risk FLATTENE Assel bubbles (LP Notices • US fiscal policy F Rua BR_ 1 Risnia interest tales E m china .) mmm o e jI • cc KR Slow recovery • • NEUTRAL o Releveraging event risk (such as. uI -1 C NY co., Recession / deflation Trade war •Jul17 -2 STEEPENER -.wilt _1 Inflation Sovereign crisis 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0a Standard deviation (%) Currency war 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% SOME.. RohlMerrill LynchGlobal Research Source 8efAtternl Lynch Global Research Bank of Amenca "ra" Global Liquid Markets Weekly I 24 July 2017 17 Merrill Lynch EFTA00788491 Commodities Sabine Schels Francisco Blanch MLI (UK) MLPF86 Get ready for a gas rally • The recent drop in US nat gas prices hard to justify and the underlying fundamentals are painting a far more positive picture • We expect the inventory surplus to be gone early August and end of October stocks at just 3.5 tcf, the tightest since 2008 • We re-iterate our bullish call for 2018 US natural gas prices to average $3.50/MMBtu, significantly above the current forward Downward pressure on US nat gas prices hard to justify Front-month US Henry Hub prices have been sagging this summer, desperately clinging onto the $3/MMBtu level (Chart 1). CAL18 at $3/MMBtu show no gain on year-ago levels at all, while prices on longer-dated contracts remain under constant selling pressure. Stronger-than-expected injections, a production rebound and a large retrenchment in net spec positions put forward prices under pressure (Chart 2). To us, underlying fundamentals are painting a far more positive picture. We expect the seasonal surplus to be eradicated by early August and end of October stocks at just 3.5 tcf, the tightest since 2008. We believe supply rationing will set in later this year and drive prices substantially higher. We reduce our average 2H17 forecasts by 20 cents to $3.45/MMBtu and keep our average forecast for 2018 at $3.50/MMBtu, significantly above the current forward. Chart 25: US Henry Hub prices have been sagging this summer, on Chart 26: Non-fundamentals factors are also important as the sharp sell- better- than-expected injections, weak cooling demand and output gains off coincided with a retrenchment in net spec positions US natural gas pikes I teny Hub nat gas speculative positions 6.5 (net long speculative positions) SIMMS 100.000 6.0 positions 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 -100,000 3.5 3.0 2.5 -200.000 2.0 1.5 -300.000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 —2014 —2015 —2016 -2017 — 2012 — 2013 -2014 -2015 -2016 -.-2017 Source Bloomberg Some. Bloomberg Forward prices are below the marginal cost of production Producers took advantage of the rebound in prices in late 2016, hedged and doubled the gas rig count. which is now fuelling a steady increase in production (Chart 27). This is an important development as after declining in 2015 and 2016, US domestic nat gas output will likely increase again this year and next. However, gas supply in America is highly elastic to 12 month forward prices. The marginal break-even sits in the $3- 325/MMBtu range, above the 3-year rolling forward strip of $2.90 (Chart 28). The Barnett, large parts of the Fayetteville and the Rockies are off limits to producers. IRR's in the Haynesville are just below 10%. the lowest since November. If prices remain this low, rig count gains could stall or reverse. Even if nat gas prices were to increase sharply 18 Global Liquid Markets Weekly 124 July 2017 Bankof America ' Merrill Lynch EFTA00788492 from here, additional supplies would not come in time for the winter given an estimated six month lag from production to prices. With forward oil prices so low, associated gas production growth will likely also slow. Chart 27: High yield issuers hedged 7596 of their production this year in Chart 28: We see a marginal break-even in the range of $3.3.25/MMBtu, the case of high yield issuers compared to the 3-year rolling forward of $2.90 North America producers - %of gas production hedged US natural gas cost curve 80% $7.00 l l _ wellhead 70% $6.00 nat gas Rockies: 1i Associated Gas: Jonah 60% Warnsuiter $5.00 Permian Uinta Bakken 50% Eagle Ford I $4.00 STACK/ SCOOP 40°4 - $3.00 30% Utica 20% $2.00 10°/ $1.00 mental supply . III ed demand 0% $0.00 ayselw 0 2014 ' 2015 2016 2017 2018 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% • Investment Grade • High yield —2013 -2014 -2015 -2016 -2017 Source BorA Metall LrxhGlota Research estimates Spiro 8ofA Mel, Lynch Global Research estimates Supply will have to be rationed in the power sector in sum low oil and gas prices, insufficient hedging for 2018 and delays to pipeline capacity in the Northeast mean domestic output growth will likely be lower than expected. Contrasting that, the demand growth from three major sources—industry. LNG exports and pipeline exports—is phenomenal and completely price-inelastic. Prices have to be substantially higher than last year in order to curb demand when demand and exports increase structurally. The market has taken the opposite view and bid down prices to generate a coal-to-gas switch. Instead we believe that supply will have to be rationed in the power sector in order to balance the market although the recent shutdown of coal capacity should make this challenging (Chart 29). All told, we continue to see upside to near-dated US natural gas prices (Chart 30). Chart 29: Prices have to be up on last year, and substantially so, in order Chart 30: All told, we continue to see upside to near-dated US mural to curb demand from the power sector gas prices US coal to gas switching to date US Henry Hub nat gas price feast vs. forward 9 (relative to 2007 base year) 5.00 (quarterly averages) bcf/d MBtu 8 - BAML toast 4.50 7 - 4.00 6 - 3.50 5 - 3.00 4 - 2.50 3 - 2.00 2 - 1.50 I - NaP Nt.c> 4:i> 44>i >41) e 49. I I 2010 . 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 — realised/forward —feast Source BoIA Lrxh Gad Reseatch estimates Source. Bloomberg MA Kleroll Lpch Gbhal Research estimates BankofAmenca 4,* Global Liquid Markets Weekly I 24 July 2017 19 Merrill Lynch EFTA00788493 FX forecasts Table 8: G10 FX Forecasts Spot Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 03 EUR•USD 1.14 1.10 1.08 1.10 1.10 1.12 115 USD-JAY 113 119 117 117 115 112 110 EUR-JPY 129 131 126 129 127 125 127 Dollar Bloc USOCAD 1.29 1.32 1.36 1.34 1.33 1.32 130 AUDUSD 0.76 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.75 NZDUSO 0.73 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.70 0.71 Europe EUR•GBP 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.87 027 GBP-USD 1.30 1.25 124 1.26 1.28 1.29 132 EUR•CHF 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.13 1.13 1.15 USDCHF 0.96 1.01 1.04 1.02 1.03 1.01 1.00 EURSEK 9.62 9.50 9.40 9.30 9.20 9.10 9.00 USDSEK 8.46 8.64 8.70 8.45 8.36 8.13 7.83 EURNOK 9.52 9.20 9.00 8.90 8.80 8.70 8.60 USDNOK 8.37 8.36 8.33 8.09 8.00 7.77 7.48 Faecast as °OW-06-2017 Spec exchange rate as of 06-Xill 7 Source. BofAhlemll LrxhOWS Research.Blocrebeig Table 9: EM FX Forecasts Spot Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Lath America USDBAL 3.29 135 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.55 3.60 USDAAXN 18.33 18.80 19.50 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 USDCLP 666 675 680 690 710 715 720 USDOOP 3.082 2.950 2.970 3.000 3.050 3,100 3,150 USD-ARS 17.12 16.80 17.50 18.50 19.00 19.50 20.00 USD-PEN 3.26 3.30 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.42 3.45 Emerging Europe EUR-PLN 4.25 4.15 4.10 4.10 4.05 4.05 4.00 EUR-HUF 309 305 305 300 295 295 290 EURCZK 26.13 26.25 26.00 26.00 26.00 26.00 25.50 USD-RUB 60.09 60.00 60.00 63.00 63.00 63.00 63.00 USD-ZAR 13.48 13.50 13.75 14.00 14.25 14.25 14.50 USD-TRY 3.63 3.50 3.40 3.45 150 155 160 EUR-RON 4.59 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.35 4.35 4.30 USD-1LS 3.53 3.55 3.60 3.65 3.65 3.70 3.70 Asian Bloc USD-KAY! 1.157 1.140 1.160 1150 1140 1,130 1,120 USD-TWO 30.59 30.60 31.00 31.00 30.70 30.60 30.50 USDSGO 1.38 1.40 1.42 1.43 1.41 1.39 1.38 USD-THB 34.08 34.60 35.50 35.00 34.80 34.50 34.50 USDHKD 7.81 7.79 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 USDCNY 6.80 6.95 7.05 7.10 7.15 7.20 7.20 USD-1DR 13.388 13.400 13.500 13,400 13,300 13.200 13.100 USD-PHP 50.67 51.50 52.50 52.00 51.50 51.00 51.00 USD-MYR 4.30 4.44 4.48 4.46 4.44 4.42 4.40 USDINR 64.78 66.50 66.80 66.30 66.00 65.80 65.50 Fotecast as of Ail-OS-2017 Spa exchroge rate as of 060-17 Source. BOA tilemll Lrxh°alai Reseatch.Bloemberg 20 Global Liquid Markets Weekly I 24 July 2017 Bankof America 0' Merrill Lynch EFTA00788494 G10 rates forecasts Latest 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 USA 3m Labor 131 1.35 1.60 1.85 2.10 2y Title 136 1.50 1.55 1.65 1.80 5y T-Note 182 2.05 2.15 225 235 10y T•Note 227 2.60 285 2.85 2.85 30y 743ond 284 305 3.15 325 3.25 2y Swap 159 1.67 120 1 1.78 1.93 5y Swap 189 2.10 2.18 228 2.38 10y Swap 2.22 2.62 290 293 2.93 Gelman), 3m Euolzot -033 434 4.33 -033 -032 2y BKO -064 450 43.55 -050 -0.45 5y OBL •013 -0.15 -0.15 -010 -0.05 10y DBR 055 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.60 30y DBR 129 1.30 135 140 140 2y Swap 415 -0.10 -004 0.051 5y Swap 028 0.27 035 0.43 10y Swap 0.92 0.94 1.08 1.09 Japan 3m Lbw -0.01 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.03 2y)GB -0.11 -am -0.15 4310 -0.05 5y JGB -005 -0.10 43.08 4305 Q00 10Y /GB 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.10 2y Swap 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.15 5y Swap 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.15 020 10y Swap 026 023 I 025 028 030 U.K. 3m Libor 029 0.32 0.33 035 035 2y UlCr 028 0.40 0.40 0.40 040 5y UlCr 059 0.85 0.90 0.95 100 lOy UKT 1.20 1.50 1.60 130 1.80 30y UKT 183 2.00 2.10 2.20 230 2y Swap li r 060 Q75 0.75 0.75 075 5y Swap IN 088 1.05 1.05 130 1.15 10y Swap 1.25 1.50 1.55 1.65 1.75 Australia 3m BBSW 1.70 140 1.90 200 200 2y ACGB 1 91 135 1.85 1.95 195 5y ACGB 228 220 2.35 245 245 10y ACGB 2.74 2.80 3.05 3.10 3.10 3y Swap 229 2.05 220 230 2.30 10/Swap 2.95 3.00 320 3.25 325 Canada 2y Goa 123 1.10 1.30 1 50 150 Sy Goa 1.53 140 1.60 1 80 180 10y Govt 1.90 130 1.85 2.00 2.00 2y Swap 154 1.41 1.61 181 181 5y Swap 186 1.70 1.95 2.15 2 15 10/Swap 2.19 2.02 224 239 2.39 Some Bo(A Menu L•inch Global Research Sank ofAmenca Global Liquid Markets Weekly 124 July 2017 21 Merrill Lynch EFTA00788495 EM rates forecasts Spot 30 2017 402017 10 2018 20 2018 Asla China ly lending 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 2y 3.48 3.10 3.00 3.00 2.9 1Oy 4.07 3.35 3.30 3.30 3.2 India Repo 625 6.00 6.00 6.00 2Y 6.32 6.10 6.10 6.45 6.50 1Oy 6.45 6.30 6.30 6.85 6.90 Indonesia Policy 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 2Y 6.58 6.95 7.05 7.05 7.05 lay 6.94 8.10 8.20 8.2 8.2 Korea Policy 125 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.50 2Y 1.61 1.75 1.85 1.90 1.90 I Oy 1.93 2.20 2.25 2.30 2 30 Mala eia Policy 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 4 3.57 3.55 3.60 3.6 3.6 1Oy 4.00 4.30 4.40 4.4 4.4 Singapore Policy . • . 2y 1.31 1.50 1.60 1.6 1.6 1Oy 226 2.50 2.60 2.00 3.00 Thailand Policy 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 2y 1.59 1.75 1.80 1.8 1.8 1Oy 2.37 2.70 2.80 2.8 2.8 EEMEA Czech R. Policy 0.05 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 2y 0.74 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.10 1Oy 1.37 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.70 Hungary Policy 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 2Y 0.42 0.40 0.50 0.70 0.90 1Oy 2.35 2.20 2.30 2.50 2.80 Israel Policy 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 2Y 020 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 1Oy 1.78 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.70 Poland Policy 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 2Y 1.94 2.00 2.10 2.30 2.50 1Oy 2.79 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.20 Russia Policy 9.0D 8.50 8.00 7.75 7.50 2Y 7.79 7.75 7.50 7.20 7.20 1Oy 6.60 6.70 6.80 6.90 6.90 South Africa Policy 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.50 6.25 2Y 6.79 7.00 6.90 6.90 6.90 1Oy 7.79 7.95 7.75 7.50 8.00 Turkey Policy 11.95 11.50 10.50 9.50 9.00 2y 11.07 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.00 1Oy 10.16 10.50 10.50 10.00 10.00 Latina Brazil Policy 10.25 8.50 7.75 7.75 7.75 ly 8.35 8.82 8.60 8.40 8.40 5y 9.90 10.30 10.00 10.00 10.00 Mexico Policy 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 2Y 7.00 6.80 6.70 6.70 6.50 1Oy 7.13 7.10 7.30 7.50 7.50 Chile Policy 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2Y 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 1Oy 4.18 4.10 4.20 4.20 4.30 Colombia Policy 5.75 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 2Y 4.97 4.80 4.90 4.90 5.00 1Oy 623 6.20 6.30 6.50 6.70 010 US Policy 125 1.00.1.25 1.25.1.50 1.504 /5 1.75.2.00 2Y 1.35 1.50 1.55 1.65 1.80 1Oy 2.25 2.60 2.85 2.85 2.85 Germ" Policy 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2y .0.64 0.50 .0.55 0.50 0.45 1Oy 0.53 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.60 Spot as of July 20 Source BofAMeml Lynch Gbbal Reseal% 8Icomberg 22 Global Liquid Markets Weekly I 24 July 2017 Bankof America 40" Merrill Lynch EFTA00788496 Commodities forecasts Table 10: BofA Merrill Lynch Crude Oil Price Forecasts (end•of•period forecasts) units Sep•17F Dec-17F WTI Crude 01 (MO 48.00 47.00 Brea Crude Cil (Mil) 51.00 50.00 US nasal gas (SMNBlu) 3.40 4.00 Source BcfA mewl Lynch Glob& Research estimates Table 11: BofA Merrill Lynch Commodity Price Forecasts (period averages) units 3017F 4017F 2017F 1018F 2018F 3018F 4018F 2018F 2019F WTI Crude 01 151:0 44.00 47.00 47.00 47.00 47.00 52.00 53.00 50.00 51.00 Brent Crude Oil ($m) 47.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 49.00 54.00 55.00 52.00 53.00 US NY Harbor ULSO (HO) Cracks to Brent Crude Oil 12.10 13.60 12.50 US RBCO Cracks to Brent Crude Oa (Shbi) 12.20 6.60 11.50 USGC 1% Residual Cracks to Brent Crude Oil 151t4) (10.50) (10.50) (10.40) NWE Low Sulphur Gasoil Cracks to Brent Crude Oil (MM 9.70 11.00 10.00 NWE Eurobob Cracks to Brent Crude Oil 151t0 10.70 6.70 9.00 NWE 1% Residual Cracks to Brent Crude Oil MCI (10.50) (11.00) (10.25) 1 US Natural Gas ISMMBlul 3.20 3.70 3.30 3.80 3.30 3.30 3.60 3.50 3.50 Thermal coal, Newcastle FOB (M) 78.00 80.00 80.00 78 70 65 67 70.00 64.00 Aluminum SI 1.700 2.150 1,902 1.950 1.950 1.950 1.950 1,950 2.000 Copper 54 5,500 4.750 5,434 4.750 5.500 5.750 6.042 5,510 6,400 1 Lead 51 2.150 2.000 2.143 2.129 2.129 2.129 2.129 2.129 2.129 Nickel 54 9,250 9.250 9,494 10,000 10,000 11,000 11,000 10,500 12,500 Zinc S1 2.750 2.750 2.714 2.950 2.950 2.950 2.950 2,950 2.975 Gail Soz 1.275 1.350 1,276 1.400 1.350 1.400 1.450 1,400 1.400 Silver Sim 17.00 20.00 17.93 20.71 20.71 20.71 20.71 20.71 20.00 Platinum Soz 950 925 950 950 950 950 950 950 1.000 Paladum $102 850 800 809 800 825 850 875 838 900 Sw:e KofAhlecr II Lot Clitalfte9,a.rh en m • Bank ofAmenca ea* Global Liquid Markets Weekly I 24 July 2017 23 Merrill Lynch EFTA00788497 Trade Recommendation For our FX trade ideas, see the Global FX Weekly For our Rates trade ideas, see the Global Rates Weekly For our EM trade ideas, see the Global EM Weekly 24 Global Liquid Markets Weekly I 24 July 2017 Bankof Amenca e Merrill Lynch EFTA00788498 Options Risk Statement Potential Risk at Expiry & Options Limited Duration Risk Unlike owning or shorting a stock, employing any listed options strategy is by definition governed by a finite duration. The most severe risks associated with general options trading are total loss of capital invested and delivery/assignment risk... all of which can occur in a short period. Investor suitability The use of standardized options and other related derivatives instruments are considered unsuitable for many investors. Investors considering such strategies are encouraged to become familiar with the 'Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options' (an OCC authored white paper on options risks). U.S. investors should consult with a FINRA Registered Options Principal. For detailed information regarding risks involved with investing in listed options: http:ftwitow theocc.comfabout/publirations/charactPr-ricksjsp Special Disclosures Some of the securities discussed herein should only be considered for inclusion in accounts qualified for high risk investment. 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Neither BofA Merrill Lynch nor any officer or employee of BofA Merrill Lynch accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages cc losses arising from any use of this report or its contents. 28 Global Liquid Markets Weekly I 24 July 2017 Bankof America Merrill Lynch EFTA00788502 Research Analysts US Sebastian Cross Rates Strategist David Woo FX, Rates & EM Strategist Pac Rim Shyam S.RaJan Tony Morriss Rates Strategist Rates Strategist/Economist lial Ralph Mel Adrsh Sinha Rates Strategist FX Strategist MLPF&S Kongl Paul Ciana, CIAT Shuichi ohsaki Technical Strategist Rates Strategist 1011L Vadim laralov Shusuke Yamada, CFA >> EX Strategist FX/Equity Strategist MLPF&S Merrill Lynch 'Japan} Carol Mang Global Emerging Markets Rates Strategist David Hauner. CFA EEMEA Cross Asset Strategist MLI IUK) John Shin FX Strategist Claudio Idgoyen MLPF&S LatArn FIrFX Strategy/Economist MLPF&S Europe Raif Preusser, CFA Claudio Piron Rates Strategist Emerging Asia FUFX Strategist MLI h apore) Ruben Segura-Cayuela Commodities Europe Economist Francisco Blanch Commodity & Deny Strategist MLPF S Mark Capleton Rates Strategist Max Denary MLI Commodity Strategist MLPF&S Athanaslos Vamvakklls FX Strategist Trading ideasand investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not Sphia Salim suitable for all investors. Investors skull have Rates Strategist experience in FX markets and the financial resources MLI KIK) to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies >> Empbyed by a non-US affiliate of MLPFIS and is Kamal Sharma FX Strategist not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the MLI FINRA rules. Refer to 'Other Important Discbsures* for information on certain BofA Merrill Lynch entities that take Myria Kyriacou responsibility for this report inpartscular jurisdictions FX Strategist MLI Rualtt Houdhane Rates Strategist Bankof Amenca "gra" Global Liquid Markets Weekly 124 July 2017 29 Merrill Lynch EFTA00788503