EFTA00812107

Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study 2017 • This study is not intended for members of the public or retail investors. • Full audience information is available inside the front cover. _At t. ..1 _ : ; '. t :... , . ... .. .....• ,- . ..•,. 4,.w..o.... _ • .• . 'e,t z: : . • •• - .,. ...... : 7.r.2 — •.1- ..fir •• r ca,, Tit :t.a?:. ..:.4.-....:-• 4-::-..7: irs...:>. ll'esb •••:* ..? aar ..._ .1.s..-r. .- •-•••••• -• • .• • VA .1-.7crs.-s...? 413.• 6:: --....str---' • a' ' ...-... . :•:::::. • • ; • •• •• 34,0• .4 ••:, •,, ••• . . •: Pa — 0.4e: • ""PlI ••,. • ••••••••••• • ; -•• • 7, `. a *a- a ' • , 2"3 .• ". " •• -• - •-• • • * 4114 • , • • I •a, le :••P p ••• .—•••••• •••• •• • "••:. • • • . ••••••• . • • ••••-. - •-• • • Pp. • • • . ..‘,./` EFTA00812107 Important information This document is intended only for Professional Clients and Financial Advisers in Continental Europe (as defined in the important information); for Qualified Investors in Switzerland; for Professional Clients in, Dubai, Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Man, Ireland and the UK, for Institutional Investors in the United States and Australia, for Institutional Investors and/or Accredited Investors in Singapore, for Professional Investors only in Hong Kong, for Qualified Institutional Investors, pension funds and distributing companies in Japan; for Wholesale Investors (as defined in the Financial Markets Conduct Act) in New Zealand, for accredited investors as defined under National Instrument 45-106 in Canada, for certain specific Qualified Institutions/Sophisticated Investors only in Taiwan and for one-on-one use with Institutional Investors in Bermuda, Chile, Panama and Peru. Cover Aerial view of Midtown South. New York EFTA00812108 Introduction Key themes We published our first report on the sovereign asset management industry in 2013 following Shift from investment strategy to business model interviews with 43 sovereign investors. This year The gap between target and actual portfolio returns marks our fifth annual study with evidence-based along with declines in investment commitments are findings based predominantly on face-to-face reshaping sovereigns' strategic agendas. interviews with 97 leading sovereign wealth funds, state pension funds and central banks with assets Increasing appeal of perceived 'safe haven' markets in excess of US$12 trillion. Geopolitical uncertainty is leading to a focus on Over the past five years we've noted a number perceived 'safe haven' international markets and of factors influencing sovereigns such as low home markets. interest rates, the falling oil price and reduced funding. This year however we note geopolitical Attraction to real estate for matching and shocks in developed markets are shaping decision flexible participation making. When coupled with uncertainty over the Sovereigns are increasing allocations to high-quality end of quantitative easing, the commencement direct real estate given perceived return, matching of quantitative tightening and ongoing volatility and flexibility attributes. in currencies and commodities it's clear sovereign investors are faced with a challenging macroeconomic Environmental, social and governance (ESG) and therefore investment environment. growth dependent on performance data The first theme in this year's report addresses Perspectives on ESG are polarised with supporters the aforementioned factors and notes a continuing moving to further embed and integrate ESG in return gap between target and actual returns with investment processes while non-supporters wait asset deployment challenges limiting the ability for for evidence of investment implications. sovereigns to match strategic asset allocation targets. We note sovereigns are increasingly looking to evolve Central bank risk appetite driven by financial their business models through internalisation or market exposure investment partnerships to reduce management Central bank investment priorities and risk costs and improve placement efficiency. appetite vary according to the size of the country's Geopolitical risks have led to an increased reserves and to the level of exposure to financial concentration on perceived 'safe haven' international market shocks. markets such as the US, India and Germany as well as an increasing focus on home market allocations in an effort to reduce foreign currency exposure. We focus on real estate in our third theme, highlighting accelerated growth in the asset class. We examine the drivers for these allocations as well as setting out how and where assets are being deployed. Despite sovereigns being well placed to implement Environmental, social and governance (ESG) strategies due to their size and long-term orientation, the uptake of ESG practices by sovereigns appears to have varying success. We highlight sovereigns' polarised perspectives on ESG investing across various regions. We conclude with a theme focused on central banks. This year we have expanded and segmented our central bank sample to understand differences in strategy and pace of change with respect to investment trenches across developed and emerging markets. We hope the unique, evidence-based findings in this year's report provide a valuable insight into a fascinating and important group of investors. Alexander Millar Head of EMEA Sovereigns 8 Middle East and Africa Institutional Sales igsams.invesco.com alexander.millarginvesco.com to view more content +44 1491416180 on this year's themes 01 EFTA00812109 Sovereign segmentation is crucial to understanding Investment sovereigns attitudes and responses to external themes Investment sovereigns do not have any liabilities, Economic challenges affect sovereigns differently, allowing for long time horizons and high exposure to according to their liabilities, risk appetites, funding illiquid asset classes. Due to this investment freedom, dynamics and other factors. We use the framework return targets are high - investment sovereigns have in figure 1 to categorise sovereign investors. We will responded to falling returns by targeting greater explore the unique implications of the themes in illiquid asset exposure (to generate higher returns) this report for each of these segments. and developing internal management capability (to capture more of the value chain), however many funds are reaching limits on these allocations. Liability sovereigns Liability sovereigns are split into funds with existing outflows (current liability sovereigns) and funds with future liabilities (partial liability sovereigns). While partial liability sovereigns have similar strategies to investment sovereigns (due to their long time horizons), matching outflows is a key concern for funds with current liabilities. The return gap is therefore of particular significance to liability sovereigns and many funds expect their target rates to eventually increase as they update models to lower 'risk free' rates and increasing life expectancy. To manage these concerns, many current liability sovereigns are seeking greater exposure to high- yielding asset classes. Fig 1. Sovereign profile segmentation Sovereigns and central banks Primary objective Investment 8. liability Global sovereign profile Liability sovereigns (LIA) Sovereign investors 'Central banks have secondary frpactityobjectwes as well as primary capdal preservation objectives. They are distinct from sovereigns through thew role in local market money supply and thew regulatory function. 02 EFTA00812110 Liquidity sovereigns Central banks Liquidity sovereigns manage assets to stimulate Central banks are 'lenders of last resort' - managers economies that are highly dependent on commodity of a large foreign reserves portfolio to bail out prices during a market shock. Due to the unpredictable financial institutions of public importance. Due to and sudden nature of outflows, liquidity sovereigns the importance of maintaining reserves to sufficiently have extremely short time horizons and prioritise cover such requirements, preservation of capital portfolio liquidity above investment returns. Despite is of greatest importance. Central banks also have low yields of government bonds, liquidity sovereigns high levels of public accountability and disclosure, are unable to seek higher returns from alternative encouraging risk aversion through short time horizons asset classes due to the inherent liquidity risk. and highly liquid investments. While other sovereigns invest in home market assets, central bank reserve Development sovereigns managers hold the majority of their assets in foreign The asset and geographic allocation of development securities, increasing the importance of currency sovereigns is driven by the requirement to encourage exposure relative to other sovereigns. local economic growth (rather than investment Unlike sovereign investors, central banks have return). Development sovereigns take large (often objectives outside of reserves management, including controlling) stakes in companies of economic local market liquidity management and maintenance significance in order to grow their presence in of currency pegs. Since these external factors have the local market. While other sovereigns adjust influence over the foreign reserves, in this study we allocations to maximise their asset growth and yield, consider central banks separately from sovereign development sovereigns consider their success investors. However, as many government bonds have in economic metrics such as GDP growth and job negative yields, certain central banks have looked to creation, working closely with their investments to invest in non-traditional asset classes (e.g. equities) grow long-term strategic assets. This means that to preserve their capital, closer aligning their foreign development funds are relatively unreactive to reserves investment strategy to that of sovereign return shortfalls and asset allocation trends. wealth funds. Funding challenges and the low return environment have unique implications for each sovereign segment. N., Investment & liquidity Investment & development Capital preservation Liquidity sovereigns Development sovereigns Central banks- (Lie) (DEV) (CB) 03 EFTA00812111 Shift from investment strategy to business model The gap between target and actual portfolio returns along with declines in investment commitments are reshaping sovereigns' strategic agendas. EFTA00812112 EFTA00812113 The outlook for macro policy and for the geopolitical Sovereigns face a continuing 'return gap' environment remains uncertain These dynamics suggest a continuation of the Our fifth annual cycle of interviews Look place 'lower rates, lower return' environment over at between January and March 2017. In speaking with least the next 24 months. While the lower return leading sovereign investors and central banks (with environment has been a consistent theme in past assets in excess of US$12 trillion) we identified a years, in 2017 the implications are compounded, number of critical themes that shaped interview with low interest rates the factor of greatest responses. Unsurprisingly, we noted that the outlook importance to both strategic and tactical asset for macro policy and the potential for further allocations in figure 2. Risk asset valuations have geopolitical shocks dominated discussions. inflated over a number of years, while the near- - Sovereigns see the end of OE (Quantitative uniform tilt to alternatives such as infrastructure Easing) without a clear indication as to the form or has resulted in supply challenges and delays. timeframe for further OT (Quantitative Tightening). In 2016, all sovereign profiles displayed a While the US has begun to raise interest rates, the return gap (figure 3), driven by the low interest rate Federal Reserve is engaged in parallel measures environment, however this shortfall was greatest that may reduce the quantum and pace of further among investment sovereigns. Traditionally, liability increases; and there is uncertainty whether and sovereigns have hedged fixed income against when other major markets will follow suit inflation (due to the focus on matching outflows - The bifurcation of the US and other developed to beneficiaries), while investment sovereigns have markets (notably the UK, Germany and Japan) left their Inflation exposure open. This has led to had significant implications for currency rates, investment sovereigns having the greatest return challenging sovereign geographic allocations gaps, as developed economies return to growth - Political change in developed markets (notably and inflation rises. While liquidity and development Brexit and the US election) created volatility in sovereigns are also suffering from low interest sovereign portfolios, challenging the robustness rates, respondents noted that investment returns of sovereign risk models. As policy changes are were of secondary importance, relative to liquidity worked through governments (e.g. the terms of and development objectives. Furthermore, liquidity Brexit and US corporate tax reform), there will be sovereigns noted that their long-duration fixed wider implications for long-term geographic and income assets had increased in value as rates fell. asset allocation Against this, sovereigns are challenged by fixed - Emerging markets face various macro challenges, return targets, which are typically set to match with commodity prices recovering slowly (e.g. oil, potential liabilities and do not adjust to market natural gas and copper) and an increasingly unstable conditions. Despite return challenges, we do not political outlook in Brazil and South Africa see a concurrent shift in investment activity year-on-year (as we go on to explore). The challenges of the return gap are most severe among investment sovereigns. 06 EFTA00812114 Fig 2. Importance of macroeconomic conditions to strategic and tactical asset allocation • Importance to SAA ■ Importance to TAA 8.1 Low interest rates 9.1 7.4 US election 8.5 7.1 Commodity prices 6.6 6.9 Brexit, EU break 7.5 6.5 Stock market volatility 7.5 5.7 Terrorism 5.9 5.6 War in Syria 5.5 5.5 Emerging market 6.9 5.1 Climate change 7.0 5.0 Chinese volatility 6.1 Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. SAA =Strategic Asset Allocation. TAA=Tactkal Asset Allocation. Sampte=20. Fig 3. Past year returns and target returns (% AUM) • Past year returns ■ Target returns 4.1 Sovereign sample 57 6.1 2.6 Investment sovereigns 12 6.3 4.9 Liability sovereigns 27 6.0 2.4 Liquidity sovereigns 3.3 4.6 Development sovereigns 11 7.7 Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Sample size shown in grey. Data is not weighted by AUM. 07 EFTA00812115 Fig 4. Expected time (years) to deploy assets ■ 2016 ■ 2017 Infrastructure Private equity Real estate Hedge funds 4 2.4 2.3 2 1.7 SS Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Sample: 2016=21, 2017=35. 08 EFTA00812116 Deployment challenges are limiting sovereign Risk of fund withdrawals is slowing further ability to match targets illiquid asset investment In previous reports, we observed sovereigns' return The ability of sovereigns to respond to the return gaps, driven by low Interest rates and challenging gap is being limited by the increasing likelihood of targets for fixed income allocations. We have also withdrawals. Over the past three years, governments noted how appetite for alternatives has grown as have responded to economic volatility by reducing sovereigns seek greater returns from private markets. new funding to sovereigns and, in some cases, In last year's report, we demonstrated that high levels drawing down from sovereign reserves, as seen of competition in infrastructure and private equity in figure 5. were causing sovereigns to shift deployment of real While previously only liability sovereigns assets towards real estate. experienced regular drawdown of funds (in the form Competition for infrastructure and private equity of outflows to beneficiaries), an increasing propensity deals has accelerated in 2016, with deployment for government withdrawals is encouraging times increasing across alternative asset classes investment and liquidity sovereigns to consider the (figure 4). While the growth in these times is small, liquidity of their portfolio. Liquidity sovereigns were it is significant: sovereigns are increasingly dependent comfortable in their ability to withdraw from their on their alternative investments to generate yields, portfolio at short notice, however, many sovereigns however, growing levels of undeployed capital for stated that liquidity management was an entirely alternative investments are being held in cash and new objective, with certain investment sovereigns money market funds, so that sovereigns can respond responding by creating tactical allocations to cash quickly when real asset opportunities arise. These and money market funds. This has led to conflicting highly liquid investments offer limited returns, liquidity requirements: sovereigns have to manage particularly in comparison to sovereign targets for withdrawal risks by shortening time horizons while real asset investments, causing further growth in simultaneously seeking to access illiquidity premia the return gap. to generate greater returns. Fig 5. Expected new funding and cancelled Investments (%AUM) • New funding • Cancelled investments Sovereign sample Investment sovereigns Liability sovereigns Liquidity sovereigns Development sovereigns 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 37 56 58 9 10 10 17 26 27 14 6 8 7 14 13 0 Sample is based on sovereign ewestors and excludes central barks. Sarrcle sizes shown in grey. Data is not weighted by AUM. Periods shown reflect past year new funding/cancellations. 09 EFTA00812117 Fig 6. Change in past year allocations by asset class (% citations) ■ Decrease ■ Stay the same ■ Increase Global equity 2013 52 24 24 2014 20 46 34 2015 12 52 36 2016 20 55 25 2017 13 63 23 Home market equity 2013 40 30 30 2014 18 41 41 2015 23 50 27 2016 25 57 18 2017 23 67 10 Global bond 2013 55 27 18 2014 25 64 11 2015 22 63 16 2016 23 65 13 2017 17 69 13 Home market bond 2013 42 25 33 2014 45 45 10 2015 53 47 2016 36 57 7 2017 25 73 3 Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Sample: 2013=22, 2014=36, 2015=33.2016=44, 2017=60. 10 EFTA00812118 Uncertain market direction has challenged response to return gaps through asset allocation Political change across developed markets challenges high conviction geographic allocations outside a small number of perceived 'safe haven' markets. Similarly, the staggered shift to OT is creating uncertainty over sovereign forecasts for asset class performance. Additionally, in many cases allocations to illiquid assets were approaching restrictions put in place by investment boards, with little room to further tilt to risk classes. Such uncertainty over investment strategy means that very few sovereigns are willing to adjust strategic asset allocations, and internal restrictions are a challenge to those that are seeking to change. This can be seen in figure 6, in which an increasing number of sovereigns state they have 'frozen' asset allocations to traditional asset classes. A focus on business model to drive implementation efficiency and liquidity premium capture As willingness to take active positions in geographic and asset allocation decreases, the effects of the return gap are compounded. Sovereigns are unable to respond to growing shortfalls through asset allocation alone, and are instead looking at how to evolve their business models to drive more efficient realisation against portfolio objectives, notably through internalisation or investment partnerships to reduce management cost and improve placement efficiency. However, sovereigns acknowledged that any changes to business models carried trade-offs against execution and investment risk: - Many respondents have struggled to reach target alternative allocations and the shift to internalise or move to co-investment or operating partnerships may create further constraints - Over-investing in privately listed assets puts sovereigns at risk of future valuation adjustments while utilisation of alternative deployment models (working directly with operating partners) has implications for governance processes and disclosure - Reducing intermediation while potentially improving line-of-sight to placement also reduces external objective inputs to asset selection and valuation - Finally, the tilt to internalisation may not be consistent with geographic diversification objectives, and there is some evidence of an increasing 'home market' bias despite stated objectives to the contrary While the motivation for business model changes is clear and aligned, there is an acknowledgement amongst participants that not all sovereigns will be successful in executing, with the potential for risk or investment shocks where execution is unsuccessful. As willingness to take active positions in geographic and asset allocations slows, sovereigns must engage with investment boards to include consideration of market conditions (as well as potential outflows) in their return targets to continue to work towards their long-term objectives. With limited scope to act through allocation sovereigns are focused on alternative levers. ll EFTA00812119 Increasing appeal of perceived 'safe haven' ma Geopolitical uncertainty is leading to a focus on perceived 'safe haven' international markets and home markets. • EFTA00812120 Construction of subway system extension, New Yak EFTA00812121 Sovereigns are targeting markets offering security g 7. Attractiveness of markets to sovereign investors and growth Traditionally sovereigns have grouped countries by economic development or geographic region to form their overall geographic allocations. Indeed, last year, we highlighted increased allocations to North America, based on perceptions of the US as a 'safe haven' for sovereign assets, driven by the strength of its currency and positive tax changes for international investors. While at a high level, sovereigns have been unwilling to adjust regional allocations (as outlined in theme 1), idiosyncratic geopolitical risks are causing sovereigns to reweight to countries within these allocation bands. In developed markets, uncertainty over global interest rates is shifting this focus to identifying markets to shelter assets (as shown by the increased attractiveness of the US and Germany in figure 7), with Brexit and the US election cited as the factors of fastest growing importance to asset allocation (growing importance cited by 82% and 68% of sovereigns respectively). Similarly, emerging markets sovereigns are identifying countries with the greatest potential for long-term economic growth. is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. on a scale from 1 to 10 where 10 is the most attractive. Rating scored as of O1 of the given year. 2015=26. 2016=44. 2017=58. Sovereigns are seeking greater exposure to perceived 'safe havens' within each key region. 14 EFTA00812122 15 EFTA00812123 Growth of the US for both returns and protection Currency strength The attractiveness of the US has been driven by underlies optimism interest rate rises (with expectations for further raises for the US. this year) and bond yields lagging in other developed markets (figure 8). There is also market confidence of a 'pro-business' corporate tax regime following Trump taking office in January 2017, causing sovereigns to note the growth potential of US equity markets (with 40% of sovereigns expecting to increase North American allocations in 2017), as other developed market stocks remain flat. Currency strength underlies this optimism (USD up 3% against EUR and 20% against GBP in 2016'), with some sovereigns deliberately targeting dollar exposure through their international investments. Liability sovereigns noted the dual benefit of the open currency position, both eliminating hedging costs and generating additional returns relative to home market currency. In our 2015 sovereign study, we highlighted the attractiveness of real estate investments in developed markets. Under FIRPTA (Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act), sovereign appetite for real estate investment in the US has further grown. Most notable, however, is the growing optimism around the potential for new infrastructure deals in the US following political campaigning suggesting an investment opportunity of US$1 trillion. Despite positivity, sovereigns in Europe and Asia noted that successful US real estate investments gave no guarantee of similar opportunities within infrastructure. Many respondents were concerned about growing protectionism in the US, questioning if it might both limit access to infrastructure and real estate investments for foreign sovereigns and would have long-term economic implications as foreign relations are strained. 'Source: XE currency data. Data from 01January 2016-01 January 2017. Fig 8. 10-year government bond yields US UK Germany Japan 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 Source: US - US Treasury Resource Center, UK - Bank of England Data, Germany - Bundesbank Statistics, Japan - Mrmstry of Finance Interest Rate Index. Data taken as daily average yield co 30 December 2016. 16 EFTA00812124 UK challenges centred on currency, but future role Fig 9. Exchange rate, geographic allocations to the UK (% AUM) ■ 2016 as European hub is unclear ■ 2017 While the UK has faced short-term challenges over low interest rates (relative to the US), the Brexit decision poses a threat to the long-term attractiveness of GEtWUSD exchange rate Geographic allocations the UK. Brexit is seen as a significant negative for (External data) to the UK (%AUM) UK investment, and investment sovereigns with (Sovereign sample) European interests questioned the future of the UK as an 'investment hub' for Europe, given uncertainty over taxes on imports and market access. Liquidity 1.48 sovereigns also noted their concern that demand for UK government bonds would drop, challenging the liquidity of their holdings. Despite this negative sentiment, UK allocations remain relatively stable with stated declines likely linked to currency fluctuations rather than withdrawal, as demonstrated in figure 9. Furthermore, the fall in value of the pound has led to a rally in UK stocks as export-linked businesses benefit from more competitive pricing. The low value of the pound also allows UK asset managers to offer their services at '1.23 a discount to international competitors. This low entry price into the UK represents an opportunity for UK managers who can demonstrate local market expertise and robust currency hedging processes to international sovereign investors. There has also been a demonstration of ongoing sovereign commitment to long-term alternative investments in the UK. Many sovereigns noted that they were unlikely to cancel UK real estate assets in the near future and there have been several high-profile statements of renewed commitment to UK infrastructure investments following the Brexit decision, including Thames Water and Heathrow Airport. However, respondents noted that these are long-term investments which are unlikely to move until the outlook of the UK as a preferred investment destination (comparable to the US or Germany) becomes clearer. LHS: Source - XE currency data. Data as of beginning of given year. RHS: Sarnple is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Data Is not weighted by AUM. Sample: 2016=55,2017=57. 17 EFTA00812125 Positivity towards Germany amidst concerns for Continental Europe Brexit has raised awareness of the related threat of wider EU disbandment, although this has had a relatively small effect on Continental European allocations on the whole (from 12.8% of AUM in 2016 to 11.2% in 2017). Instead, it has caused sovereigns to focus on the more stable countries within the EU. Sovereign investments in Germany have increased based on its economic strength (with its attractiveness increasing year-on-year in figure 10), and many respondents attribute this to Germany's industrial sector (an estimated 30.3% of GDP relative to 19.2% in the UK, 19.4% in France and 23.9% in Italy). However, investment sovereigns identified German financial markets as an area of potential growth post-Brexit, offering a stable platform for investments across Europe. Furthermore, liability sovereigns explained that if the eurozone were to disband, Germany's role as the financial hub of Europe would have significant upside for the German currency, with many funds building currency hedging strategies to take this into account. Fig 10. Attractiveness of continental European markets ■ 2015 to sovereign investors • 2016 • 2017 Germany France Italy a 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.6 Germany is seen Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. as a stable platform Rating on a scale from 1 to 10 where 10 is the most attractive. Rating scored as of 01of the given years. for investments Sample: 2015=26, 2016=44. 2017=58. across Europe. 18 EFTA00812126 Sovereigns see potential in Indian private markets Despite tactical switching between developed markets, increasing investment into emerging markets remains a long-term strategic objective for many sovereigns (as stated in our 2016 report). Stock markets have relatively small coverage of emerging market economies, driving greater emphasis on illiquid real asset categories. In fact, many sovereigns use infrastructure deals to manage near-term macro and geopolitical risk, as outlined in our 2015 study. However, challenging placement dynamics and uncertainty over commodity prices mean sovereigns are being more selective in their emerging market investments, focusing on the identification of high- growth markets. While many emerging markets have struggled with slow commodity price recovery and political instability, India has experienced consistent growth in GDP (figure 11). However, India's economic structure is complex and publicly listed investments have relatively low coverage of the wider economy (with stock market capitalisation 65%of GDP in India, relative to 146% in the US and 112% in the UK). Indeed, many sovereigns are focusing on opportunities within Indian private equity (as seen in India's increasing private sector attractiveness in figure 12), seeking returns from its rapid urbanisation. Fig 11. Gross domestic product of ■ 2015 Typically, in emerging markets sovereigns have emerging markets (US$, trillions) to 2016 faced considerable regulatory and governance ■ 2017 challenges to direct private equity investment, leading them to seek assistance from external managers. However, in 2016 India introduced reforms to foreign 1.86 India direct investment, loosening government restrictions 2.03 on investment in certain sectors, with wider reform expected in 2017. This has enabled large investment 2.09 and liability sovereigns to invest heavily in Indian Brazil private equity, and many funds are developing internal management expertise based in India to have greater 2.46 access and control over private equity investments. 1.8 Despite sovereign desire to invest directly in Indian private equity, the development of local management Russia capability is often complex and deployment of assets 2.05 to meet targets will be lengthy. While concerns remain over governance and liquidity of private equity 1.33 investments in emerging markets, sovereigns note South Africa that local management teams are best equipped to deal with these concerns. Source: World Bank Data - GDP (Current USS) data as at 17 Aprd 2017. Fig 12. Opportunity of Indian private sector ■ 2015 and attractiveness of India to sovereign investors ■ 2016 to 2017 Private sector opportunity Attractiveness to sovereigns 7.1 6.1 5.9 5.6 Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Rating on a scale from 1 to 10 where 10 is the most oppertunistc/attractive. Patric scored as d 01 of the given years. Sample: 2015=26, 2016=44, 2017=58. 19 EFTA00812127 Fig 13. Geographic allocations to home market (% AUM) ■ 2015 ■ 2016 • 2017 Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Data is not weighted by AUK Sample: 2015=39, 2016=55, 2017=57. 20 EFTA00812128 Home market investment allows for greater internalisation and reduced hedging costs Given recent increases in the likelihood of outflows, figure 13 shows how sovereigns are growing their focus on home market allocations to reduce foreign currency exposure. While home market investment aligns to greater internalisation, it also grows correlations between sovereign portfolio performance and local economic performance. Since sovereign funding is also heavily dependent on the local market, sovereigns are at risk of increasing cashflow strains (from both investment returns and new funding) when the local economy underperforms. Sovereigns may need to revert to greater geographic diversification, at the cost of short- term returns The combination of continuing home market tilts, along with a concentration in a small number of 'safe havens', threatens to squeeze allocations to markets that lack clear growth or stability attributes. As the granularity of geopolitical risk models increases, sovereigns are at risk of being overly selective in their geographic investments and becoming dependent on single markets within geographic regions. However, many of the driving forces behind concentrated geographic allocations are unlikely to last. Interest rate disparity in developed markets is expected to reduce if European and Japanese quantitative tightening begins, suggesting that increased fixed income allocations to the US are tactical. Similarly, while growing emerging market allocations is a strategic initiative, India has been targeted due to its recent economic growth, relative to other major emerging markets. While sovereigns are willing to be overweight individual countries to capture additional returns (either through short-term tactical allocations or greater internalisation), they may shift their focus back to managing risk across diverse geographic allocations, fulfilling their aim to make government reserves independent of local economic performance. These is an inherent risk in overcommitting to individual markets. 21 EFTA00812129 EFTA00812130 Trains arriving at Liege-Guillemins train Station by Santiago Calatrava. Belgium iks vcc‘ xxxxxx xV ilk ,sv..., .***ZZ•% V\xxxxxxxxx\XIVlmis‘ \\ANA. - cc\ \\‘ • \\‘\ \`‘ \\‘\ lik\aN NN\ \\\ \\\\ \\\ \ V\ANNAII.flNA %.'/14• Nx. \\\ • \\\\ N' \\Nilo e e• e • • • \\\ I° • •N \\\ \\\\\\\ \\ \ • ‘. \\\\\\\\\\\A s".• ••• N\•\\\\\\ %IN \‘‘` • a * • •:•• 0141001 , %.".• k%S 4‘ ‘ \‘ -Way gi ;7/Hililifill fi n 1 . 1 -a EFTA00812131 Real estate is perceived as attractive based Target illiquid on supply of investment opportunities alternative In last year's report, we monitored sovereign allocations have investment in real estate, with its perceived superior mcreased, despite supply-side dynamics relative to other real asset and deployment alternative categories. While asset allocation shifts challenges. have slowed this year, the trend towards real estate has accelerated, driven by capacity for sovereign investment. For example, it is noted that while relatively few countries offer private investors access to a wide range of investment-grade infrastructure investments, there is broad access to commercial and office sectors across major developed and emerging markets, causing sovereigns to cite real estate as the asset class with the fewest execution challenges (figure 14). Furthermore, investment sovereigns with large internal teams noted that real estate was unique in its scope for greenfield investment. Sovereigns continue to develop internal asset management capability in real estate (figure 15 highlights the high levels on internal management within real estate), enabling them to generate investment opportunities themselves, rather than source and compete for real estate deals with other investors. In an environment where challenges executing against target real asset and alternative allocations Fig 14. Underweight asset classes due to ■ 2016 drag on investment returns, supply depth is a key execution challenges (% citations) ■ 2017 differentiator for real estate. Infrastructure Private equity Real estate 70 71 60 45 27 Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Sarno*: 2016=20, 2017=41. Fig 15. Internal management of international • Real estate illiquid alternatives (0/0 AUM) • Private equity t• Infrastructure Sample is based on sovereign investas and excludes central banks. Data is not weighted by AUM. Sample: Real estate=31, Private eguity=26 Intrastructure=24. 24 EFTA00812132 Real estate offers income generation and Low fixed income access optionality yields means This year, sovereigns cited a range of reasons for sovereigns are increasing target real estate allocations, including beginning to view the scope to capture liquidity alpha, the potential property as a to generate income matching mid- to long-term reliable source of liabilities and the potential for internalisation and income. control. With lower interest rates, lower funding commitments to sovereigns and a lack of appetite to vary asset allocations, the potential for leveraged participation in real estate (equity and debt) appeals to sovereigns seeking alternative means of scaling 'frozen' asset allocation to match liabilities. In addition, while there are few alternatives to third-party management and fee structures across infrastructure and private equity (with co-investment in many cases challenged by fund governance and risk appetite), sovereigns have a broad range of options to participate in the development, acquisition and management of real estate. Indeed, there was no consensus among sovereigns on the best placed real estate manager, with internal and external managers, developers and operators cited as preferred real estate partners in figure 16. Sovereigns are also attracted to the flexibility of real estate value chain participation as it reduces upfront funding commitments and allows for a gradual internalisation Fig 16. Preferred manager for • Real estate developer of expertise and resource. real estate investments (% citations) • Real estate operator • Internal investment team ■ External asset manager Sample is based on sovereln investors and excludes central banks. Sample.-28. 25 EFTA00812133 Fig 17. Allocations to international and home market real estate (%ALIM) • International real estate • Home market real estate 2015 2016 2017 4.7 4.4 3.4 p • 2.8 2.2 I • Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Data is not weighted by AUK Sample: 2015=44, 2016=57, 2017=62. Fig 18. Primary factor driving real estate investment (% citations) Generate higher yields Accessing liquidity premium Diversification from Long-term investment traditional assets 1 58 18 15 9 Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Sample=33. 26 EFTA00812134 Property allocations are concentrated in Fig 19. Primary source of funds for new real estate investments (0/0 citations) 'home market' to match liabilities While real estate allocations account for a small portion of sovereign portfolios, there has been Fixed income significant relative growth in allocations, particularly in sovereign home markets (figure 17). Home market real estate is attractive for liability and investment sovereigns, as there is no need to hedge currency exposure, as outlined in theme 2. The increase in home market allocations is mirrored in sovereign appetite for income-generating real estate assets (with yield generation the lead factor for increased allocations shown in figure 18), matching home currency-denominated liabilities at higher yields than domestic fixed income. Consequently, the tilt to real estate in home markets is substantially funded from lower allocations to fixed income (figure 19). Home market allocations also benefited from the trend to internalisation of real asset management. With limited capability to source and manage real estate globally, sovereigns noted that internal investment teams focused more on the local market, Equities particularly in respect of greenfield or residential investments. Domestic real estate investment was greatest among Western and Asian sovereigns (4.9% and 3.1% of assets respectively), due to the depth of high-quality domestic real estate markets. Home markets were viewed as more familiar and accessible; there was a view that proximity facilitated oversight and control, which in turn afforded greater comfort in higher risk categories. Many respondents were also more confident in their ability to pitch for real estate deals locally, given the positive reputation of sovereign investors. Liquid alternatives New contributions Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Sample.31. 27 EFTA00812135 International real estate focused on key markets Sovereigns acknowledged the benefits with potential for long-term investment of external asset managers, particularly International real estate allocations also grew in for international allocations the period to 2016, though at a lower rate than The success of domestic real estate investments in home market. Sovereigns reported that increased matching liabilities and the scope to capture liquidity international allocations in many cases represented alpha through internal models is reflected in the pace tactical factors such as restrictions in domestic of home market allocations over the past three years. market or challenges achieving target allocations in However, looking forward sovereigns appreciate infrastructure or private equity. that further increases may be constrained by asset As a result, increases in international allocations allocation or the maturity and depth of the local were relatively concentrated in terms of asset quality market. Many sovereigns also noted that there were (tier-1assets offering a comparable return profile risks associated with further internal investment in of private equity and infrastructure). This has led home market real estate: sovereigns to expect greater growth in high grade - Despite a focus on high-quality assets, liquidity office and commercial real estate (figure 20), with is a challenge for real estate investors and many long-term tenancies underpinning income generation, sovereigns are approaching limits on the size of over industrial or residential categories which offer their investments asset growth and development potential. - Growing internalisation leaves sovereigns without The importance of quality to international real third-party support in governance and compliance estate allocations is also evident in geographic for their real estate investments allocations. Sovereigns prefer 'safe haven' markets - If Interest rates rise, demand for real estate is such as North America and Western Europe when expected to slow, with implications for both asset investing in overseas real estate, with developed pricing and liquidity markets leading sovereign citations for preferred real However, on the assumption that interest rates estate locations shown in figure 21. globally remain lower near-term, we expect that sovereign demand for real estate will grow faster than sovereigns are willing or able to deploy to home markets. As a result, we expect that over the next three years allocations to international markets will grow, and diversification outside preferred geographies and classes will accelerate. Despite success in green(ield investing in their home market, sovereigns are less able to influence supply of real estate opportunities overseas, providing an opportunity for external asset managers to support sovereigns in sourcing and managing real estate deals. Developed market sovereigns have access to a wide range of high- quality domestic real estate assets. Fig 20. Future increase in real estate sub-asset class allocations (% citations) 40 Office 40 Commercial 28 Residential 16 Industrial Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Sample=25. 28 EFTA00812136 Fig 21. Preferred location for real estate investments (% citations) ■ UK • Western Europe • North America • Home market Residential Commercial Office Industrial fer 5 27 10 32 19 Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Sample.22. 29 EFTA00812137 Invironme TM, socia A e (ESC) growth dependent on performance data Persper.tives on ESG are polarised with supporters moving to further embed and integrate ESG in AInvestment processes while non-supporters wait for evidence of investment implications. EFTA00812138 rir The Hoover Dam on the Cotorado Prver, r- Artzona, US 41 4 * - \I _ r :re r iv! _ cleat- .49k • EFTA00812139 In the absence of long-term risk and performance Qualified support for 'environmental' and 'social' data, the role of ESG is unclear for many sovereigns screens given reputational risks of non-adoption, Environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing however further commitment depends on emerging looks to incorporate ethics and sustainability into evidence of investment implications the investment process. Sovereigns are well placed For sovereigns looking to adopt ESG investing, the to implement ESG strategies (or component sub- most common step is to introduce negative screens strategies) due to their scale, reach, size and long- on managers and securities which fall below ethical term orientation. In addition, many investment and standards (figure 23). This process lends itself to liability sovereigns have a clear basis to consider environmental and social factors, given growing sustainability factors in delivering their objectives, levels of disclosure of carbon footprint and employee given their own mandates and through their growing diversity within public markets. Indeed, environmental internal management capability. factors are among the ESG issues of greatest However, contrary to early expectations, uptake importance to sovereigns shown in figure 24. of ESG practices appears to be less broad than Certain sovereigns noted that negative initially anticipated. On the one hand, established environmental and social screens can be simply sovereigns across Europe, Canada and Australia have inserted into the investment process as an extra step been pivotal to the evolution of ESG investing among within security selection, with minimal additional institutional investors. Many of these sovereigns were costs of management and expertise. Respondents crucial in the development of sovereign investment also stated that the measurement of the investment strategies over past decades, and continue to have impact of negative screens was simple, as the social high levels of influence over sovereign models globally investment strategy was most often constructed relative to their size. Against this, funds in the US from a fully inclusive benchmark. and emerging markets have been reluctant to commit Despite some non-users citing analysis showing to ESG (figure 22) in the absence of objective data the negative effect of ESG screening strategies on the investment risk/return trade-offs implicit in on short-term returns, there was a sense among these strategies. interviewees that greater levels of disclosure While uptake of ESG has not increased in line increased reputational risk of non-adoption relative with historical expectations, there is a clear appetite to high-profile ESG adopters. for perspectives and analysis from adopters, asset managers and academics. In fact, among institutional investors globally ESG is cited as the most important area for thought leadership (NMG's Global Asset Management Study 2017), highlighting investor demand for greater understanding. ESG adoption has been driven by established sovereigns across Europe, Canada and Australia. 32 EFTA00812140 Fig 22. Sovereign adoption of ESG factors (% citations) West (ex-US) Rest of world 91 Sarno* is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. sample: West (erUS)=11, Rest of world=44. 32 • Fig 23. ESG screen usage (% citations, ESG users) Security negative screen Manager negative screen Manager positive screen Security positive screen Sarriple is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Multiple responses. Sampfe=22. Fig 24. ESG issue importance (ESG users) • Environmental factor • Social factor ■ Governance factor Climate change 71 7.8 Sustainability 7.2 Financial disclosure 7.2 Energy resources 6.9 Human rights 6.9 Executive remuneration 6.4 Diversity 8 Water scarcity Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Ratrig on a scale from 1 to 10 where 10 is the most important. Ratrig scored as of 01of the given year. Sample=22. 33 EFTA00812141 Fig 25. Current approach to investment management by size of assets (% citations, ESG users) • Attend AGMs • Board representation for majority of investments • Actively engage with board • Don't actively engage 26 AUM < US$ 25bn 19 11 29 AUM > US$ 25bn 35 25 23 23 Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Sample sizes shown in grey. Fig 26. Effect of ESG on investment costs/long-term returns (% citations, ESG users) ■ Increase in returns ■ Decrease in returns • No difference Effect of ESG on long-term returns Effect of ESG on investment costs Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Sample=25. 34 EFTA00812142 Leading adopters are embedding governance-based Future uptake of ESG integration requires more engagement, with an expectation of improved long- performance data, while growth in active ownership term returns requires third-party assistance While non-adopters wait on the evidence of ESG The adoption of negative screens is encouraging investment outcomes, leading adopters are moving for ESG advocates; however, the majority of current further down the path of integrating ESG principles non-adopters are unwilling to move further in the into investment allocation and management absence of strong objective evidence of positive decisions, including through active engagement with investment risk/return outcomes from ESG investing or participation in investee company decision-making. relative to cost. ESG adopters overwhelmingly Larger sovereigns with internal asset management observe a positive differential in long-term returns capability were most confident in their ability to (with 70% of respondents perceiving an increase execute their ESG strategies, due to their higher levels in returns from ESG as seen in figure 26), and of engagement with their investments (figure 25). many adopters explained that they were seeking to These larger sovereigns noted that direct engagement integrate systematic ESG risk measurement into the benefits substantially outweighed the cost of external investment process. However, ESG user and non-user advisers and representation; notably respondents acknowledge that there is a need for - The largest sovereigns drew a clear line from long- robust data on integrated ESG strategies, which can term investor influence on corporate structure only be addressed through continued measurement and executive remuneration to 'active' investment of the impact on performance. performance through the cycle Despite uncertainties around the impact of ESG - Sovereigns felt able to better represent the interest Integration, there is a growing consensus among all of government or non-government stakeholders respondents on the positive effect of governance through direct engagement on investment returns. However, there are many - Finally, for sovereigns committed to ESG, direct challenges to developing and managing an active governance engagement provided a mechanism ownership strategy: to proactively drive an ESG agenda in future - Many sovereigns have not defined their governance investment and management decision-making principles and were wary of demanding levels of transparency from their investees that the sovereign fund itself did not provide - The adoption of active ownership requires hiring subject matter experts, and many investment sovereign respondents were intent on using recruitment budget to expand internal investment teams - Certain sovereigns did not hold shareholder voting rights across the majority of their securities and were wary of the costs Involved in switching these investments for those with voting rights - Many respondents stated that they were challenged by lack of engagement from consultants and asset managers While smaller sovereigns have been dissuaded from investment engagement by these cost restraints, evidence of benefits in returns and representation of sovereign interests will be key in driving greater uptake of sovereign active ownership. With some sovereigns looking internally to invest, based on the ability to embed government-based engagement, asset managers must respond by offering sovereigns the opportunity participate in the stewardship of companies by means of voting rights. There is a need for robust data on the performance of integrated ESG strategies. 35 EFTA00812143 Altz, UM- J, . i _ •• • 11. -.2 1 Central bank risk appetite driven by financial 4. • • market exposure diii“ I • 0..IL J_ • L- X •_ 4. - _ _ sake Central bank investor priorities and risk •, 4 — t. I i1 1 _ - appetite vary accord o the size of the country , a • • , 4 • \I a _ 4_._ . •,•• ,ft ... •• reserves and to the) of exposure to financial A. l . AI • ••• market shocks • IL • - fr. - l e: r- el • • .0) 4 . elt ‘ I .1 A • ..,,,C. C. 1_,.,1 —_, 71 _..” _ .74 •• • • ••• t • • r 1__.% ‘41- ').± All.,. -i' I\ w • I --i .JIML ‘- • • i 1/2., //_i_ .. t : . .1 I _ _j• ..4 •• \ \ • .1 AHt._ '.- 17- C- A' --1\ a.1/4 _l4 A - _ 11/4 -ill- • lw • %. t .1 a _ 4.4 • — - I••• , , at •c - . I. O r....,•• i ••!..... N \ ii a — Si .0. ... a A. ,4 _Mt I ;4 -,. t• • ad It t ;al /1_ ti.._ -sat t_. t - k_ _ s. I= 1 .1N K I a \ 4' I /3. T. r ..i. ac .1 a ... , • ar.:IL _/ , ‘... — _I di ;N... at .• ,. _ •• 4- Is • i..4 • , . I, Is„, • 4,..- \ • • •• •r • - MI •._ • I. • In • - Jr\ \ I, , N I - $ 1. • - •••• ta _ — , / • /L a— - I< \ _/ I -- \ PAP - II 4 _ _ _ I - EFTA00812144 EFTA00812145 While central bank investment tranches are Low banking sector exposure is accompanied in some ways comparable to sovereign portfolios, by lesser build-up in the levels of reserves and they are differentiated by the former's broader a growing appetite for risk assets market functions In this year's report, we have expanded our central While there are similarities in the approach taken to bank sample and segmented the central bank investment tranches (in terms of risk asset allocation universe into developed and emerging markets to and development of internal capability), central banks understand differences in strategy and pace of change have a broader set of functions, including local market with respect to investment tranches. Within developed money supply, the role of lender of last resort and market central banks, we further segmented them currency exchange rate regime management. These into two categories: those with high exposure to factors have considerable influence over investment financial markets (DM High FME) and those with strategy and capacity, and differentiate central banks low exposure (DM Low FME'). We summarise these from sovereign investors. classifications in figure 27. In last year's report, we focused on emerging While there are various means of calculating market (EM) central banks due to their increasing reserves adequacy (with import coverage and short- use of investment tranches (reserves sub-portfolios term debt coverage most frequently cited in figure which prioritise investment return over liquidity), 28), all measures link level of reserves to potential which have similar allocations to sovereign investor drawdown of funds. Following the Global Financial portfolios. We noted that many of the respondent Crisis of 2008, DM High FME central banks increased banks were moving up the risk spectrum in response estimates of the likelihood and size of potential to achieving capital preservation in the face of low drawdowns, increasing the level of reserves over and negative yields, and that reserve managers were the intervening years to better equip themselves as allocating higher levels of reserves to the investment 'lenders of last resort'. In 2016, this trend continued tranche. We explore how central banks in developed with DM High FME central banks increasing reserves markets with low financial market exposure have more rapidly than DM Low FME and EM (figure 29). followed emerging market reserve managers up the DM High FME reserve managers rely on these large risk spectrum. net inflows to maintain high levels of liquidity (with 67% of respondents describing reserves as 'ample' in figure 30), and focus less on capital preservation and investment returns. Furthermore, reserve managers in High FME markets noted that they are unwilling to invest in risk assets such as equities or asset-backed securities as they are seeking to diversify (not correlate) their reserves from local financial market shocks. 'Measure of financial exposure based on World Bank Global Financial Development - Private credit by deposit money banks and other financial institutions to GDP (%), 24 June 2016. Fig 27. Central bank segmentation High financial Low financial market Emerging markets market dependency dependency (EM) (DM High FME) (DM Low FME) Market economic maturity High High Medium Financial market/GDP (%) High Medium/Low Medium/Low Foreign reserves new flows High Medium Low Reserves adequacy High High/Medium Medium Foreign reserves risk Low Medium High appetite 38 EFTA00812146 Fig 28. Factors used to calculate reserve adequacy (% citations) • Rank 1 ■ Rank 2 Rank 3 Rank 4 42 45 Import coverage 29 33 6 6 Short-term debt coverage 3 6 6 GDP coverage 19 3 3 Money supply 6 13 Capital flight 6 3 Current account deficit 6 3 Exchange rate regime Sample ccrnpnses of central banks only. Hey denotes each factors' level of importance acccrding to central banks. Rankings spirt into four categories in descendng order with rank 1=most important. Rating scored as of 01 of the given year. Sample=31. Fig 29. Net increase in foreign currency reserves (%AUM) DM High FME DM Low FME EM Sovereigns 4 18 58 12 75 4.8 1.8 Sample size shown in grey. DIA High FIAE=Hrgh financial market dependency. DM Low FME= Lox financial market dependency. Fig 30. Level of reserves adequacy (%citations) • Ample ■ Sufficient Insufficient OM High FME DM Low FME EM 6 67 33 14 Sample comprises of central banks only. Sample size shown ngrey. 39 EFTA00812147 Due to the lower capitalisation of local stock and bond markets, economic performance in DM Low FME countries is relatively less vulnerable to financial shocks than in DM High FME markets, giving Low FME central banks greater freedom to invest in higher risk asset classes. Furthermore, whereas most High FME central banks self-assess 'ample' reserves adequacy, the majority of Low FME central bank respondents describe reserve levels as 'sufficient', and are therefore more likely to seek higher returns through the investment tranche to improve their long-term reserves adequacy position (figure 31). Typically, emerging market central banks have the lowest levels of reserves adequacy due in large part to greater vulnerability to foreign shocks. Indeed, certain emerging market central banks with a currency peg noted that falling commodity prices had created pressure on the local currency, causing a drawdown of foreign reserves to maintain the peg. Countries with more flexible exchange rate arrangements are instead seeking greater exposure to risk asset classes to generate positive returns to preserve capital and maintain reserves adequacy. Fig 31. Investment tranche usage (% citations) ■ EM • DM Low FME DM High FME Sample comprises of central banks only. Sample: OM High IME=6, DM Low FME=6 and EM=22. Note low sample. OM HighFME=Hqh financial market dependency. DM Low FME=Lowfinancial market dependency. 40 EFTA00812148 Emerging market central banks have pioneered Emerging markets investment tranches to generate greater returns have led the and developed markets are exploring their ability development of the to follow suit investment tranche In last year's report we identified that emerging due to the relative market reserve managers were developing an importance of capital investment tranche, to diversify away from low- preservation. yielding government bonds and generate better risk adjusted returns. This year, low interest rates again led EM central banks to increase the level of the investment tranche and invest in riskier asset classes, targeting higher returns over time to support future reserves adequacy. Additionally, certain emerging market central banks had recently relaxed fixed or managed exchange rate regimes, allowing for greater freedom to allocate reserves to the investment tranche. As central banks (including DM Low FME) expand the size and risk asset exposure of the investment tranche, they also are assessing how to best manage risk, return and cost, particularly where higher levels of reserves and depth of internal resources support developing internal management expertise. Central banks have a range of resources available in making their assessments, including case studies and performance data from those EM central banks reaching the end of the first cycle of Fig 32. First investment tranche asset class (0/0 citations) risk assessments, with many respondents indicating their willingness to share such information with peers. While we note the long timeline for the first Asset-backed Equities Corporate bonds Alternatives generation of EM central banks to establish their securities investment tranches (an average of 22 months across our emerging market sample), the availability of peer support and information sharing has the potential '2 4 to create a positive network effect supporting future implementations. Central banks acknowledge the need for external support as they move out the risk spectrurn to corporate bonds and equities Typically, the development of the investment tranche starts with asset-backed securities (figure 32). The majority of central banks are comfortable managing 20 investment grade government debt internally and perceive high grade asset-backed securities as comparable in terms of management requirements and risk profile. 3 However, reserve managers are moving up the risk curve, primarily seeking to increase allocations to equities and corporate bonds (figure 33). Many Sample compnses of central banks only. respondents acknowledged they do not yet have Sample=30. the necessary internal governance process or risk management capability to manage these investments Fig 33. Investment tranche asset class future increase (% citations) internally. Respondents also noted that while reserves management peers were able to assist them in planning the development of the investment Equities Corporate bonds US agency MRS Agencies, tranche, their support often lacked technical detail Multilateral debt, on investment governance and asset management Supranational infrastructure. debt 57 39 I Sample compreses of central banks only. Sample=30. 41 EFTA00812149 Central banks are seeking external assistance in !serves managers building internal capability as well as for investment it e seeking strategy and execution assistance in building Central bank decisions on the allocation and risk internal investment profile of the investment tranche allocations are frameworks to generally made internally. Reserves managers support growing risk are seeking wider assistance in building internal appetite. investment frameworks to support their growing appetite for risk asset exposure, whether through asset management mandates or collaboration with academic and multi-lateral institutions such as the World Bank. Central banks will continue to look to external managers for their technical advisory and systems support (figure 34), as sovereigns have done over many years. While 87% of central bank respondents use an asset manager within their entire reserves portfolio, there is less usage when building the first investment tranche (figure 35). This reflects a bias to first develop internal capacity before outsourcing to external asset managers for alpha generation and expansion Into new asset classes. Central banks are reluctant to convert relationships into ongoing mandates until they have developed the capacity to oversee the risks incurred by external asset managers. Those that elect to allocate assets to external managers include requirements to continue supporting central banks in Fig 34. Future asset manager support requirements developing their own internal management capability. (% citations, current users of external managers) External managers must be patient and offer real value through transfer of experience, processes Technology Systems Custodian Broker and technology, and must then have a sufficiently advisory support services relations compelling value proposition to sustain a long-term commercial relationship. 83 63 46 Sample compnses of central banks who use external managers to manage assets. Sample.24. 42 EFTA00812150 Fig 35. Use of external asset managers (0/0citations) • Yes ■ No Entire foreign reserves portfolio First investment tranche investment Samples comprise of central banks only. LHS Samp1e=27. RHS Sami:4e=31. 43 EFTA00812151 EFTA00812152 . •41 •-• •• • • • • • • • • • 0 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . el 14. • 11 mew .• . . • .a ., 7 4 •. • ;.* I• m.01P- r T / A •• • • al& V/1 11/AWar• ; • .• . wal It Pixel Cloud installation in the atrum of an office building, London EFTA00812153 Sample and methodology Fig 36. Sovereign investor sample r 2013 2015 2017 The fieldwork for this study was conducted by 2014 2016 NMG's strategy consulting practice. Invesco chose to engage a specialist independent firm to ensure By profile high-quality objective results. Key components of the methodology included: - A focus on the key decision makers within sovereign Investment Liability Liquidity Development investors and central banks, conducting interviews sovereigns sovereigns sovereigns sovereigns using experienced consultants and offering market insights rather than financial incentives - In-depth (typically one-hour) face-to-face interviews 28 26 using a structured questionnaire to ensure quantitative as well as qualitative analytics were 20 19 collected - Analysis capturing investment preferences as well 11 12 15 , 0 12 12 12 1' as actual investment allocations with a bias toward 9 10 9 9 actual allocations over stated preferences 5 7 6 6 - Results interpreted by NMG's strategy team with L relevant consulting experience In the global asset management sector By region In 2017 we conducted interviews with 97 funds: 62 sovereign investors (compared to 59 in 2016) and 35 central bank reserve managers (18 in 2016). The West Asia Middle East Emerging The 2017 sovereign investor sample is split into three markets core segmentation parameters (sovereign investor profile, region and size of assets under management) in figures 36 to 38. The 2017 central bank sample is broken down by segment in figure 39. 21 22 19 19 16 16 13 12 13 10 o 7 7 8 8 9 I- By size of assets under management US$ 10bn 10-25bn 25-100bn >100bn 23 21 !iwr 11 12 g 10 13 11 13 14 16 13 14 Sampie=62. _ Fig 37. Central bank sample by segment DM High FME DM Low FME EM Sampie=35. 46 EFTA00812154 Invesco NMG Consulting - Shape your thinking Invesco is a leading independent global investment NMG Consulting is a global consulting business management firm, dedicated to helping investors operating in the insurance and investment markets. achieve their financial objectives. With offices Our specialist focus, global insights programmes and globally, capabilities in virtually every asset class and unique network give us the inside track in insurance investment style, a disciplined approach to investment and investment markets, translating insights into management and a commitment to the highest opportunities. We provide strategy consulting, as standards of performance and client service - we are wellas actuarial and research services to financial uniquely positioned to help institutional investors institutions including asset managers, insurers, achieve their investment objectives. reinsurers and fund managers. NMG's evidence-based insight programmes carry out interviews with industry-leading experts, top clients and intermediaries as a basis to analyse industry trends, competitive positioning and capability. 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