From: Robert Trivers
To: Jeffrey Epstein <jeevacation@gmail.com>
Subject:
Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2016 17:31:56 +0000
Attachments: Lamba&Nityananda2014.PDF
Jeffrey
great talking to you
attached is a short, paradigmatic paper on just what you were talking about, variance around the mean in
overconfidence
read abstract, then go right to Figure 1, left hand side
you will see that the more a person overrates themselves, others in their group will over-rate them—works in
first week or (left side of Figure 1) six weeks later, but the effect is not 1:1 but below 1 to 1.3
Figure 2 appears to show that the more you overrate yourself the more easily you are deceived by others
one thing to look out for which, trust me, social scientists almost never do, is that we are only dealing with
correlations so cause-and-effect could easily run in the other direction—i note that others are over-rating me, so i
join the fun
i will look up the three business references since i have to lecture to 180 businessmen on all this in early January
in Rochester
i will be in touch with you ahead of time for the best place to meet in person, if at at all possible
in the meanwhile, warmest best, as always
bob
EFTA01059158