J.P.. Morgan North America Equity Research
25 July 2013
Overweight
Facebook FB, FB US
Price: $26.51
Facebook Beginning to Show the True Potential of Its
A Price Target: $44.00
Ad Platform; We'd Continue to Be Buyers, PT to S44 Previous: $35.00
Facebook delivered its strongest quarter yet as a public company—results that we Internet
think could be thesis-changing for many—and we would continue to buy Facebook Doug Anmuth AC
shares even after the —17% move up in the after-market. Our revenue and non-GAAP (1.
EPS estimates increase 12% and 38% for 2013, and 22% and 46% for 2014. Our price
target moves from $35 for year end 2013 to $44 for year end 2014, based on the Bloomberg JPMA ANMUTH <GO>
average of our DCF analysis ($48), 15x 2015E EBITDA ($45), and 30x 2015E non- Kalzad Gotta, CFA
GAAP EPS ($38). We reiterate our Overweight rating. (I
• Significant Mobile Advertising upside. Mobile revenue of $656M was well above
Bo Nam
our $446M estimate, driving 15% upside in total Ad revenue and 45% upside in
(I
both non-GAAP operating income and EPS. One year into Facebook's Mobile
Advertising efforts, Mobile has increased from zero to 41% of total Ad revenue. As Diana R Kluger
Mobile becomes the majority of Ad revenue in 2H13, we believe the Desktop to
(I
Mobile mix-shift bear argument should fade as Mobile benefits from secular
growth and higher pricing potential. It is also where Facebook's ad platform is J.P. Morgan Securities Lit
most differentiated. Quite simply, Mobile moves from a headwind to a tailwind.
• Inflection in advertiser demand and ad quality. We believe 2Q matted an
inflection point in advertiser demand and ad quality for Facebook, enabling the
company to increase inventory while simultaneously realizing higher pricing. This
is the first quarter we have seen such strong auction dynamics play out on
Facebook's platform and we believe it can continue as advertiser ROI improves.
Overall ad impressions increased 43% YA' and eCPMs 13% YN, and pricing Join 0012 aril Apt) Mil
would have been even higher if not for the lower pricing floor in int'l markets. — PS Mon price ($)
- SIP500 Owen*
YTD 1m 3m 12m
• Greater clarity on engagement and back-half comps. We think management Me I -sax 10.6% 1.sx 4.6%
provided greater insight into engagement trends and tougher 2H 13 comps. Beyond Rel I -20.2% 3.6% -53% -322%
DAUs/MAUs increasing to 61%, management indicated that time spent per person
on Facebook continues to increase and that internal data shows steady usage and
engagement among teens. Management noted tougher 2H comps, but also showed
greater confidence in News Feed ads and the company's ability to improve quality
and relevance. Ow 2HI3 YN advertising growth increases from 27% to 51%.
• Significant increases to numbers. We now project 2013/2014 revenue of $7.3B
(+44% WY) / $9.6B (+31% WY) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.74 (+38% YN) $0.98
(+32%). Ow 2015 non-GAAP EPS goes to $1.25.
Facebook Inc. (FB;FB US)
FYE Dec 2011A 2012A 2013E 2013E 2014E 2014E Company Data
(Prey) (Curr) (Prey) (Curr) Price (5) 26.51
EPS - Repotted (S) Date Of Price 24 Jul 13
O1 (Mar) 0.10 0.12 0.12A 0.12A 52-week Range (5) 32.51-17.55
O2 (Jun) 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.19A Market Cap ($ run) 64,976.01
O3 (Sep) 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.19 Fiscal Year End Dec
04 (Dec) 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.23 Shares O/S (run) 2,451
FY 0.51 0.54 0.54 0.74 0.67 0.98 Price Target ($) 44.00
CONSENSUS_EPS Price Target End Date 31-Dec-14
Bloomberg EPS FY (5) - 0.51 0.58 0.76
Source: Company data. Bloomberg. J.P. Morgan estimates.
See page 13 for analyst certification and important disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
EFTA01104713
Dou Anmuth North America Equity Research
1 25 July 2013
J.P.Morgan
Key Takeaways•
• Strong 2Q results. Facebook reported 2Q total revenue of $1.88 (+53% WY),
14% ahead of our forecast and 12% ahead of the Street. Ad revenue of $1.6B
(+61% WY) was 15% ahead of our $1.48 (40% Y/Y) estimate. Upside to ad
revenue was driven by greater than expected mobile ad revenue, an increase in the
number of marketers to over I M active advertisers in 2Q, and strong performance
of News Feed ads. Payments and Other revenue of $214M (+I I% YAP) also came
in 4% above our $205M (+7% VA') estimate as revenue from games was up 11%
VA' when adjusted for revenue recognition timing in 2012. EBITDA and PF EPS
of $1.08 and $0.19 also beat our/consensus estimates of $783M/$848 and
$0.13/$0.13.
• Solid user engagement trends. Engagement trends across platforms remain strong,
users continue to grow in all geographies, and total DAUs/MAUs have reached
61%, with the most penetrated U.S. market at over 70%. Facebook continues to
make good progress on mobile as mobile DAUs were up 60% Y/Y and reached 57%
DAUs/MAUs in 2Q. Despite recent negative sentiment around teen engagement
levels, Facebook indicated that it is nearly fully penetrated among U.S. teens and
DAUs and MAUs have been steady over the past year and half. Beyond teens,
Facebook cited comScore and Nielsen data highlighting Facebook's share of time
spent in the U.S. is either steady or increasing as the market expands due to mobile.
As these metrics highlight Facebook only, the inclusion of Instagram would add to
the growth in engagement.
• Upside to ad revenue driven by News Feed ads and mobile monetization. 2Q
ad revenue of $1.68 (+61% Y/Y, +63% VA' ex-FX) came in well above our
$1.48 estimate, driven by strength across all regions as Facebook captures a
growing portion of budgets. News Feed ads continue to be the main driver of ad
revenue growth without a meaningful drop in user satisfaction—ads on average
now make up 5% of stories in the News Feed. In an analysis by Datalogix,
marketers saw a median return on ad sales of 3x for non-News Feed ads vs. 5.9x
for News Feed ads. Facebook noted increased spend from Direct Response
marketers, mobile app developers, local businesses, and brand marketers.
Facebook exceeded 1M active advertisers in the quarter and reached —18M local
businesses with Facebook Pages, and 88-100M people actively used Facebook
daily during primetime TV hours. Additionally, mobile ad revenue of $655.6M
(41% of total ad revs) was significantly higher than our $446.1M (32% of total ad
revs) estimate.
• Expecting tougher 2H compares. We're encouraged by the acceleration in 2Q ad
revenue and we expect continued strong ad revenue growth in 2H13, driven by
continued advertiser penetration, ad quality improvements, and new ad products
such as video which could potentially launch in 4Q. However, Facebook faces
tougher Y/Y revenue compares in 3Q and 4Q given the introduction of News Feed
ads in 2H12. Facebook noted it expects 2013 revenue growth to be somewhat
slower than its 50% opex growth target for 2013 and we're modeling 50% and
36% growth in 3Q and 4Q respectively.
• 2013 opex guidance maintained, though cape: guidance was reduced.
Facebook maintained its 2013 opex (including COGS, excluding SBC) guidance
of 50% YAP growth and we're modeling some deceleration in opex growth in
2HI3. 2Q capex of $268M was lower than expected due to efficiencies and timing
and the company now expects 2013 capex of $1.68, down from $1.88.
2
EFTA01104714
Dom Anmuth
1
North America Equity Research
25 July 2013 J.P.Morgan
Summary of the Quarter
Facebook reported 2Q revenue, EBITDA, and PF EPS of $1.81B, $1.02B, and $0.19,
compared to our estimates of $1.59B, $783M, and $0.13, respectively.
Figure 1: Facebook 2Q Performance v J.P. Morgan Estimates
2Q13
(5 in millions) JPME Actuals Diff (%)
Advertising 1,390 1599 15.0%
Payments and Other Fees 205 214 4.2%
Revenue 1,596 1,813 13.6%
EBITDA 783 1,024 30.8%
EBITDA Margin 49.1% 56.5%
GAAP EPS $0.08 $0.13 56.0't€
PF EPS $0.13 $0.19 49.7%
YN Growth
Advertising 40.1% 61.2%
Payments and Other Fees 7.0% 11.5%
Revenue 34.8% 53.1%
EBITDA 19.7% 56.6%
GAAP EPS NM NM
PF EPS 8.2% 62.0%
Sequential Growth
Advertising 11.7% 28.4%
Payments and Other Fees -3.6% 0.5%
Revenue 9.4% 24.3%
EBITDA -2.6% 27.4%
GAAP EPS NM NM
PF EPS 4.3% 56.1%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Company date.
EFTA01104715
Doug Anmuth
1
North America Equity Research
25July 2013
J.P.Morgan
Adjusting Estimates
Facebook reported higher than expected mobile ad revenues and payments revenues,
which offset lower than expected desktop ad revenues. As a result, we are adjusting
our estimates as follows:
Figure 2: Adiustino J.P. Morgan Estimates
Facebook 3Q13 JPME 4013 JPME 2013 JPME 2014 JPME
(S In moan) Old New Old New Old New Old New
Advertising Revenue 1,425 1.693 1.647 1.952 5.708 6.489 7.088 8,830
YN Growth 31.2% 55.9% 24.0% 46.9% 33.4% 51.6% 24.2% 36.1%
% ehg vs. old 18.8% 18.5% 13.7% 24.6%
Mobile Revenue 505 804 623 996 1,947 2.829 3.412 5,092
Y/Y Growth 231.9% 429.1% 103.8% 225.7% 314.7% 502.5% 75.2% 80.0%
% chg vs. old 59.4% 59.8% 45.3% 49.2%
Desktop Total Rev 921 888 1,024 957 3.761 3.660 3.676 3,738
Y/Y Growth -1.4% -4.9% 0.1% -6.5% -1.3% -3.9% -2.2% 2.1%
% dig vs. old -3.5% -8.6% -2.7% 1.7%
Desktop Right Rail Rev 690 628 707 646 2.817 2.666 2.416 2,289
Y/Y Growth -19.5% -26.8% -17.2% -24.3% -20.3% -24.6% 14.3% -14.2%
% chg vs. old -9.1% -8.6% -5.4% -5.2%
Desktop News Feed Rev 230 261 318 311 943 994 1.261 1,450
Y/Y Growth 201.7% 241.7% 86.8% 82.7% 242.5% 260.9% 33.7% 45.9%
% chg vs. old 13.3% -2.2% 5.4% 15.0%
Payments Revenue 203 203 201 201 822 831 779 788
Y/Y Growth 15.3% 15.3% -21.4% -21.4% 1.5% 26% -5.2% -5.2%
% ehg vs. old 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.1%
Total Revenue 1,628 1,896 1.849 2.153 6.530 7.320 7.868 9,618
Y/Y Growth 29.0% 50.2% 16.6% 35.9% 28.3% 43.8% 20.5% 31.4%
% ehg vs. old 16.4% 16.5% 12.1% 22.2%
EBITDA 781 1,045 915 1,182 3.283 4.055 3.841 5,102
Y/Y Growth 7/.4% 49.1% -4.7% 23.1% 12.9% 39.4% 17.0% 25.8%
Margin (%) 18.0% 55.1% 49.5% 54.9% 50.3% 55.4% 48.8% 53.0%
% dig vs. old 33.8% 29.2% 23.5% 32.8%
PF EPS SO 13 $0.19 $0.15 $0.23 $0.54 $0.74 $0.67 $0.98
YN Growth 5.5% 58.5% -9.6% 33.9% 0.1% 38.0% 24.4% 32.2%
% ehg vs. old 50.3% 48.2% 37.9% 46.4%
Source: J.P. Morgan estmates. Darn:any data.
4
EFTA01104716
Dou Anmuth
1
North America Equity Research
25 July 2013
J.P.Morgan
Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks
Facebook (Overweight: Price Target: S44.00)
Investment Thesis
We believe Facebook's virtual ownership of the social graph, strong competitive
moat, and focus on the user experience position the company to significantly
improve monetization over time and to become an enduring, blue-chip company built
for the long term. Facebook's massive reach and engagement continue to drive
network effects and its targeting abilities provide significant value to advertisers,
though it is still early. We believe Facebook's ad platform is just beginning to shift
toward mare social ads with higher-quality formats, and it will become increasingly
valuable to advertisers.
Valuation
Raising PT to $44. We are establishing a 2014 year end price target of $44, which
replaces ow prior 2013 year end price target of $35. Our new PT employs an average
of a DCF and multiples (EV/EBITDA and PIE) based valuation. We're using this
valuation approach as we believe it appropriately balances Facebook's valuation
relative to its growth and industry peers, while a DCF gives the company some credit
for the opportunity to improve monetization over the long term.
Our DCF results in a $48 price per share and employs an 11% WACC and 3% long
term growth rate. We expect Facebook to generate $26.96B in revenue in 2020 with
a 53.5% EBITDA margin.
Our EV/EBITDA valuation results in a $45 price per share and employs a I5x target
EV/EBITDA multiple on our 2015 EBITDA of $6.39B. Our 15x target multiple is
in-line with high-growth industry peers such as Netffix and TripAdvisor.
Our P/E valuation results in a $38 price per share and employs a 30x PIE multiple on
ow 2015 PF EPS estimate of $1.25, which is slightly below Facebook's 33% 2012-
15E PF EPS CAGR.
Risks to Rating and Price Target
Downside risks include: I ) user-first mentality could create short-term revenue risk
and volatility; 2) competition from purpose-driven social services; 3) advertiser ROI
on Facebook may remain difficult to measure; 4) privacy, security, and regulatory
risks; 5) competition for online and mobile ad dollars from Google, Yahoo!, and
other online advertising companies; and 6) dual-class share structure and Mark
Zuckerberg's control.
5
EFTA01104717
Dou Anmuth
1
North America Equity Research
25 July 2013
IRMorgan
Figure 3: Facebook Income Statement
2011A 1012A 2012A 3C112A 4012A 2012A 1013A 2Q13A 3013E 4Q13E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Revenue 3,711 1,058 1,184 1,262 1,585 5,089 1,458 1,813 1,896 2,153 7,320 9,618 11,924
Cost of Revenue 851 273 295 317 387 1.272 404 454 474 528 1.860 2.414 2.981
Gross Profit 2,860 785 888 045 1,198 3,817 1,054 1,359 1,422 1,626 5,461 7,204 8.043
Operatrig Expenses
Marketing and Sales 383 136 135 149 162 582 175 235 252 286 949 1.270 1.514
Research and DeMopment 273 93 112 142 157 504 165 186 218 241 810 1.154 1.479
General and Administrative 225 72 127 129 143 471 151 144 152 166 612 789 954
Stock-based Compensation 217 103 1.106 179 184 1.572 170 224 227 258 880 866 954
Payroll Tax Related to SSC 6 152 (31) 29 150 20 8
Total Operating Expenses 1,104 404 1832 568 675 3.279 681 797 849 952 3.251 4,078 4.901
Operating Income 1.756 381 (743) 377 523 538 373 562 573 674 2,210 3,126 4.042
PF Operating Income 1.970 484 515 525 736 2,260 563 794 800 932 3,089 3,991 4,996
Other income (expense)• net (61) 1 (22) (5) (18) (44) (20) (17) 0 21 (16) 102 162
Pre-tax Income 1.695 382 (765) 372 505 494 353 545 573 695 2,194 3,228 4,204
Income Taxes 695 177 (608) 431 441 441 134 212 252 306 904 1,356 1.724
Effective Tax Rate 41% 46% NIA 116% 87% 89% 38% 39% 44% 44% 41% 42% 41%
GAM Net Income 1.000 205 (157) (50) 64 53 219 331 321 389 1,290 1,872 2,481
GAO EPS 50.43 $0.00 ($0.08) ($0.02) $0.03 $0.02 $0.09 $0.13 $0.13 $0.15 $0.51 $0.73 $0.16
Diluted Shares Out £.332 2,361 2.451 2.579 2.506 2.474 2.499 2,502 2.511 2.515 2.507 2.557 2.608
Non-GAAP Pretax Income 1.918 485 493 S20 718 2,216 543 777 800 954 3,0741 4,093 5,158
Income Taxes /32 192 198 209 292 891 231 289 320 382 1.222 1.596 1.909
Effectrve Tax Rate 38% 40% 40% 40% 41% 40% 43% 37% 40% 40‘c 40% 39,1 37%
Non-GAAP Net [name 1.186 293 295 311 426 1.325 312 488 480 572 1.852 2.497 3.250
Non-GAAP EPS 50.51 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12 $0.17 50.54 50.12 $0.19 $0.19 $0.23 50.74 50.98 5115
EBITDA Calculation
Operating Income 1.756 381 (743) 377 523 538 373 562 573 674 2,210 3,126 4,042
Stock-based compensated., 217 103 1,106 179 184 1,572 170 224 227 258 880 866 954
Payroll Tax Related to SEC 6 152 (31) 29 150 20 8
Depteciabon and Arnortzation 323 110 139 176 224 649 241 230 245 249 965 1.111 1.396
EBITDA 2.302 594 654 701 HO 2.909 804 1,024 1,045 1.182 4.055 5.102 6.392
2011A 1012A 2012A 3012A 4012A 2012A 1013A 2013A 3013E 4013E 2013E 2014E 2015E
WY Growth
Revenue 88% 45% 32% 32% 40% 37% 38% 53% 50% 35% 44% 31% 24%
Cost of Revenue 73% 63% 43% 36% 59% 49% 48% 54% 50% 36% 46% 30% 23%
Gross Profit 93% 39% 29% 31% 35% 33% 34% 53% 50% 36% 43% 32% 24%
Marketing and Sales 110% 100% 48% 38% 40% 52% 29% 74% 69% 77% 63% 34% 19%
Research and Development 102% 75% 78% 89% 91% 85% 77% 66% 54% 54% 61% 42% 28%
General and Administrative 101% 50% 123% 139% 120% 109% 110% 13% 18% 16% 30% 29% 21%
Stock-based Compensation 985% 1371% 1628% 156% 142% 624% 65% -80% 27% 40% -44% -2% 10%
Total Operating Expenses 146% 130% 481% 85% 99% 197% 69% -51% 50% 41% -1% 29% 20%
Total Operating Expenses (Ex-SBC) 88% 71% SO% 57% 67% 63% 56% 52% 49% 44% 50% 33% 23%
Operating Income 70% -2% -283% -9% 4% 49% -2% NM 52% 29% 311% 41% 29%
PF Operating Income 88% 23% 8% 8% 18% 14% 16% 54% 52% 27% 37% 29% 25%
GAAP Net Income 65% -#216 465% -139% -79% -95% 7% NM NM 508% NM 45% 33%
GAM EPS -trA -179% -125% -80% -95% 1% NM NM 506% NM 42% 30%
Non-GAAP EPS 20% 4% 4% 2% 5% 1% 62% 58% 34% 38% 32% 28%
EBITDA 93% 33% 19% 21% 32% 26% 35% 57% 49% 23% 39% 26% 25%
OM Growth
Revenue -6% 12% 7% 26% -8% 24% 5% 14%
Operating Income -30% -295% -151% 39% -29% 51% 2% 18%
PF Operating Income -22% 6% 2% 40% -24% 41% 1% 17%
EBITDA 48% 10% 7% 37% -16% 27% 2% 13%
% of Revenue
Ccet of Revenue 22.9% 25.8% 24.9% 25.1% 24.4% 25.0% 27.7% 25.0% 25.0% 24.5% 25.4% 25.1% 25.0%
Gross Profit 77.1% 74.2% 75.1% 74.9% 75.6% 75.0% 72.3% 75.0% 75.0% 75.5% 74.6% 74.9% 75.0%
Marketing and Sales 10.3% 12.9% 11.4% 11.8% 10.2% 11.4% 12.0% 13.0% 13.3% 13.3% 13.0% 13.2% 12.7%
Research and Development 7.4% 8.8% 9.5% 11.3% 9.9% 9.9% 11.3% 10.3% 11.5% 11.2% 11.1% 12.0% 12.4%
General and Administrative 6.1% 6.8% 10.7% 10.2% 9.0% 9.3% 10A% 7.9% 8.0% 7.7% 8.4% 8.2% 8.0%
Stock-based Compensation 5.8% 9.7% 93.4% 14.2% 11.6% 30.9% 11.7% 12.4% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 9.0% 8.0%
Operating Income 47.3% 36.0% -62.8% 29.9% 33.0% 10.6% 25.6% 31.0% 30.2% 31.3% 30.2% 32.5% 339%
PF Operating Income 53.3% 45.7% 433% 41.6% 46.4% 44.4% 38.6% 438% 422% 43.3% 42.2% 41.5% 41.9%
EBITDA 62.0% 56.1% 552% 55.5% 60.6% 57.2% 55.1% 56.5% 55.1% 54.9% 55.4% 53.0% 53.6%
Source: J.P. Morgan estrretes.Conwany data.
6
EFTA01104718
Doug Anmuth North America Equity Research
25 July 2013
J.P.Morgan
Figure 4: Facebook Revenue Segment Summary
2O11A 1012A 2O12A 1012A 4012A 2O12A 1O13A 2011A 3013E 4011E 2013E 2014E 2015E
ummary
Advertising 3.154 872 992 1.086 1.329 4279 1.245 1.599 1.693 1.952 6.489 8.830 11.161
WY Grov4h 69% 37% 28% 36% 41% 36% 43% 6I% 56% 47% 52% 36% 26%
Ex-FX Revenue (Y/Y) 38% 33% 43% 43% 43% 63%
44 Smyth a 14% 9% 22% -6% 28% 6% 15%
% of Total Revenues 85% 82% 84% 86% 84% 84% 85% 88% 89% 91% 89% 92% 94%
Payments and Other Fees 557 186 192 176 256 810 213 214 203 201 831 788 762
WY Growth 425% 98% 61% 13% 36% 45% 15% 11% 15% -21% 3% -5% -3%
CVO Growth -1% 3% -8% 45% -17% 0% -5% -I%
% of Total Revenues 15% 18% 16% 14% 16% 16% 15% 12% 11% 9% 11% 8% 6%
Total Revenue 3,711 1,058 1,184 1,262 1,585 5,089 1,458 1,813 1,896 2,153 7,320 9,618 11,924
WY Growth 88% 45% 32% 32% 40% 37% 38% 53% 50% 36% 44% 31% 24%
WY Growth (Ex-FX) 86% 46% 36% 38% 42% 41%
414 Growth a 12% 7% 26% a 24% 5% 14%
Seasceality 21% 23% 25% 31% 20% 25% 26% 29%
Revenue per MAU (ARPIN Summary
US & Canada $11.50 $2.90 $3.20 $3.40 $4.08 $13.61 $3.50 $4.32 $424 $4.83 $18.95 $19.59 $22.64
Europe $5.61 $1.40 $1.43 $1.37 $1.71 $5.94 $1.60 $1.87 $1.82 $1.99 $7.33 $8.84 $10.43
Asia $2.08 $0.53 $0.55 $0.58 $0.69 $2.37 $0.64 $0.75 $0.78 $0.76 $2.96 $3.39 $3.88
Rest of World $1.56 $0.37 $0.44 $0.47 $0.56 $1.88 $0.50 $0.63 $0.79 $0.96 $2.95 $4.14 $4.68
Total $5.11 $1.21 $1.28 $1.29 $1.54 $535 $1.35 $1.60 $161 $1.77 $6.38 $7.28 $8.05
XaSamith
US & Canada 33% 17% 73% 22% 28% 18% 21% 35% 25% 18% 25% 16% 16%
Europe 46% 18% 7% 2% 7% 6% 14% 31% 33% 16% 23% 21% 18%
Asia 40% 25% 17% 3% 22% 14% 21% 36% 36% 11% 25% 14% 14%
Rest of World 468% 78% 13% 78% 38% 21% 36% 44% 70% 70% 57% 40% 13%
Total 25% 7% 1% 4% 12% 5% 11% 25% 25% 15% 19% 14% 11%
Growth
us& Canada -9% 10% 6% 20% -14% 23% -2% 14%
Europe -73% 2% -4% 25% -7% 17% -2% 9%
Asia -6% 4% 5% 19% -7% 18% 4% -3%
Rest ol World -9% 19% 6% 2f% -11% 26% 26% 21%
Total -12% 5% 1% 19% -12% 19% 1% 10%
Geo ra • hic Revenue Breakdown
Based on User Location
US & Canada 1.914 525 590 637 780 2.532 679 848 840 963 3.330 3,957 4.649
Europe 1.155 328 346 341 440 1.455 423 505 499 552 1.979 2,518 3.010
Asia 363 118 135 154 198 605 197 247 274 280 998 1,397 1.863
Rest of World 218 87 113 130 167 497 159 213 283 359 1.013 1.746 2.321
Total 3,711 1,058 1,184 1,262 1,585 5.089 1.458 1.813 1.896 2,153 7,320 9,618 11,924
% of Total
US & Canada 52% 50% 50% 50% 49% 50% 47% 47% 44% 45% 45% 41% 39%
Europe 31% 31% 29% 27% 28% 29% 29% 28% 26% 26% 27% 26% 26%
Asia 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 14% 14% 14% 13% 14% 15% 16%
Rest of World 8% 8% 10% 10% 11% 10% 11% 12% 15% 17% 14% 18% 19%
Total 100% 103% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
YN Growth
US & Canada 67% 33% 25% 32% 38% 32% 29% 44% 32% 23% 32% 19% 17%
Europe 100% 43% 26% 18% 22% 26% 29% 46% 46% 25% 36% 27% 23%
Asia 145% 90% 65% 48% 72% 67% 67% 83% 78% 41% 65% 40% 33%
Rest of World 907% 89% 69% 68% 90% 79% 83% 88% 118% 115% 104% 72% 33%
Total 95 45% 32% 32% 40% 37% 38% 53% 50% 36% 44% 31% 24%
Source: J.P. Megan estimates. Company Bata.
7
EFTA01104719
Dou Anmuth
1
North America Equity Research
25 July 2013
J.P.Morgan
Figure 5: Facebook Bottom-Up Ad Model
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Taal in-pnwm6raiDay 0 72 300 1142 241 801 1037 1240 1143 1.151 1744 2519
Ignal linpredions in Pond • 1,722 ras 55.444 44,114 72,077 943441 114101 IA/747 411.515 514.104 man
7, Y doven 1111 10.1 NV HM MA 0397% 314% 125% 3056 04% 84%1
013 0/0.0] /IN /d 1501% 114% 21% 31% 21% 16%
4CPM 5100 $144 $5.52 $5.14 5531 15.15 54.93 $7.95 $7.10 ad 1400 54.25
WYG46,411, 111.1 10.1 N11 AM /0.1 1% 20% 45% 29% 17% 316I
00 dodo, 111.1 MA 4% 0% 34% 2% 6%
119anualINIU 9100 50,32 5027 9044 1010 10.52 5034 5195 $1.10 53.52 493 tere
Pond on0n9 ttnendgey (muon,' 00.50 3301 $395 $3.55 14.55 5971 $777 $1387 411.95 3164 125.53
WY down AM /d NM HM /0.4 1843% 159% 281% 225% 35% 59%.1
CO 0.4.44% HU dl 500% 11% 28% 109% .20% 78%
Mg Pdod Rdandady Ine Inas, •• 50.41) 51.65 5332 515 1,4.15 57.18 $6.74 51082 17.75 51396 12170
Mobas 149477 rad donwed 10.0 145 1162.0 305.7 4 715 50553 lia 11 OMA 7 d
MI 046,69, TW 1414 426% 726% 503% la 49%
00 Oases 118314 101% 22% 76% 23% 24%
% of tooi /4 dan.. IX 14% 13% 11% 10% 41% 48% 51% 44% 58% d%
I
,1•51477.• 1449. Fd3
......on, Wd. 803 813 887 EDO 843 010 02/ 915 962 935 1.099
1.377,V74•047. 4.07 403 1.02 1Ø 1.03 0.06 0.10 02,5 078 0.87 080 0.70
1.909396691•941.6.4.. 005 037 0,5 060 0.30 070 010 026 090 035 0Ø 1.05
70001n•Ore5747,01D 44 145 310 634 257 512 569 032 070 000 750 754
Taal dwalen* In Pond 1.581 tsset 23.10* 44.594 omes 55.037 61.002 42.700 42.158 240.147 276.101 278.840
16YØ/, HM 10.1 NM MA Mi 363% 323% N% 157% 15% 1941
00 Ontsal TW HU Ia 73% IS% 13% 3% 1%
sePtå $1.50 51.75 $2.71 $3.50 02.03 13.35 53.03 54.15 $5.00 14.12 5536 16.75
WI Giones HM 10.1 NM AM lal 123% 53% 43% 41% 27% 10%1
000Ø I(/1 Id 59% 29% -4% 16% 6% 10%
1199%,7110.1.1 17101 50,33 50,39 $0.19 50.3'1 10.20 5023 $1323 5032 51.06 5146 51.54
ritme rdeirrenucibeYrarr 00.50 5100 32.74 127a d.» 531,1 $1.81 496 13.71 $524 $3.55
~Gom.), TW /N AM 9,4 10.4 873% 81% fim .1% 93% al
00 0,441 I11.1 /d 100% 174% 184% -53% 373%
Mg drad Rdodntlay Onland •• 50.25 5034 $137 30.75 52.05 1281 $21:1 5338 12.72 5397 54.39
1)** Ad% 304.6.4venue 14.0 7112 1703 12753 11843 .5 3103 1513.7 1M.5 S1403.1
WYGmmeh MI 93" 242% 83% 241% 40% 11%
00 Droes 294% 231% 113% 6% 29% 16% 19%
% cd Tata Aa 114,nnum 2% 7% 13% 6% 15% 15% 15% 16% 16% 16% 14%
Total da* Fdd Rond.* /Mobile • 127452601 10.0 $3,19 1228.3 $475.7 17419 1567.0 18034 11.0450 $1.104.4 11.822.0 50415 061895
Va, 0.4401, 1/11 IN 367% 175% 415% H% 4011
00 dong, 484% dr% 106% 17% 65% 39% 13%
0,75klop RIEM Rad
Mende dun 503 536 667 Ed 043 910 929 943 902 935 996 1.039
vrruirc.y tot 4.07 1,03 4.02 IDO 1.03 0.98 010 085 078 0.87 080 0.70
hnotoran213.,o...3., 0315 58.9 592 431.9 77.8 645 79.7 83.0 66.0 85.0 812 75.0 750
TONI trepets., I,. 43.119 50505 501034 54.725 89289 56.034 69.832 60.59 64250 63610 68.222 59.719 64.560
yntoetnone.1.07., 2 5.1 4.9 50
Dans n Proa 30 91 BI SI 91 315 90 SI 92 92 365 Ø 3415
Droef In n7 410-6, 3.070.549 929.094 929.718 9444»578.077 3.502.221 924.426 921292
ge•fnue to, III00 99,7451 31 00 8093 5103 50.91 $097 $0.95 $0.74 50.77 .. - -
001.1 kondslons In Peelod 15.73,1340 4.5514011 4.621554 4060.461 4303.412 20.501386 6.246.808 I 6.444.512 1276346 5.870321 24.1180.845 21351414 15.114.303
wl, 046.41, 34% 17% 26% 44% 30% 36% 40% 26% 21% .11% al
cro Gfe." 5% I% e% II% •1% 3% .3%
ecru 50 MAP $121 9/17 59.14 5937 51111 $0.11 $0.10 $0.11 10.11 $0.11 10.10
»V G.7••••,, 216 3% -37% .14% 111.1 .47% 412% .19% -6541
00 Otosat .12% I" .37% .21% .49% .1% .8% 30%
arratersu 3407 4.05 $1.15 50.99 »90 419 $0.773 $070 50.05 $007 12.55 3230 $1.90
4.17 da,04 Edononthlyloiliod 1864 50.52 570.52 5943 5311 5905 57.63 57.73 56.82 5700 5733 5527 16.40
Enigs*IS Rol Itervinga IS I Iade 59471 tasr 7 mrt", tissu, 106r il tross ten • 564171 S22KL Stel 5
WI Went 69% 38% 23% 7% .16% 12% .21% .26% .27% .24% .25% .14% 4411
00GØ .9% 11% -10% -I% 49% 3% .11% 3%
% DI Toga Xf Rendue 01% 79% 64% 53% 35% 44% 37% 33% 41 20% 18%
Total Desktop Revenes (Non Ind $3,1$4.0 $41%0 $0103 SILO 11.023.3 $4.00.4 $0714 $0
4434 DUS $9544 kkaall 13,739.1 5$4144
16Y0444/, 60% 37% 26% 17% 0% 21% 0% 4% .5% 4% 2% -4%l
00 Pass -9% 12% -.5% 10% 45% 8% .6% 9%
% ad To14 Aa Retants 100% 100% 99% 56% 77% E% 70% 59% 52% 49% 55% 42% ars
RenexdANJ 407 11.09 51.17 5105 $1.15 $4.52 10.95 5102 $0 94 8099 $3.91 3370 $3.44
Y/3* 0100/11 7% 3% .1% 4% .1% .33% .14% -13% 4% -6141
HOTEL ADDERMINQ
morde lAnd 727 573 925 dl 1.032 951 1.003 1.133 1.177 1214 1.147 1322 1.492
Q5457.174•1205, 1.31 1.35 IS? 146 149 1.42 1.51 161 1.05 1.55 1.53 1.4 I.78
Indedd0V77,11.fe• 45 43 40 39 44 42 43 42 39 35 40 29 22
Toul inddnenrooDur 43,119 929/9 51027 55.341 70.452 56.532 71.044 72.769 70.172 65.929 70.015 62210 57.50
%mal worsoons in Pand 15,711.140 4.501000 490,414 5.931095 5311.140 29,551649 5.194,900 5940,142 1455.455 0055.427 25.541447 73.719.019 25,112.700
WY ~MI, 30% 15% 27% 40% 31% 39% 43% 25% 24% • 11% -rrtl
00 Gettlei 316 1% e% 27% Q%
•CP1A 50 50.10 $0.11 5032 5021 1121 50.19 1034 $0.1* 16.32 10.25 $0.38 10.53
>VIT 04440, 2% 5% 7% -4% 3% 3% 13% 12% 56% 23% 53% 391I
00 GE•701 42% 13% I% .4% 6% 24% rs 23%
TOTA1 ADVERMOIC REVENU/ 33154. 51172.0 MTS 11.004.0 I Jake 4 A 113460 5~0 51.6123 11142.1 24,315 g 54830.1 1111613
WY044441, 46% 37% 28.% 36% 41% 38% 45% 5)% 56% 47% 52% 36‘ 26 4% I
0.4•FX ViVG/onth 0% N% 33% 43% 43% 0% 43% 03% 35% 47% 52% 30% 26%
00GØ 4% 14% 9% 22% 6% 28% 0% 10%
% ol Toud Ad Ratimus 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Ia 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Hees Ted esa % ol +zo 9•27710071 0.09% 032% 1.11% 1013% 1% 159% 234% 274% 321% 206% 40!% 5.55%
g„,,,,..., 8„. % „,,,, g..„„., „.. 07% 36% 71606, '65% 174%. NA, 569%, 67 0% mtn 51199... 7471E d 3%,
Source: J.P. Waan esbmwes. Compa y Paft
8
EFTA01104720
Dou Anmuth
1
North America Equity Research
25 July 2013
J.P.Morgan
Figure 6: Facebook Revenue Drivers — Advertising
2011A 1012A 2O12A 3O12A 4O12A 2012A 1O13A 2O13A 3O13E 4O13E 2013E 2014E 2015E
:anti &some
Global Advertising
Advenising impressions On billions) 15 :: 4,600 4,643 5,015 6.411 20.691 6,394 6,640 6,456 6,065 25,555 22,710 21,113
Y/Y Growth 0/% 35% 18% 27% 48% 33% 39% 43% 28% -5% 21% -11% -7%
0/0 Growth 5% 1% 8% 27% 0% 4% -3% -6%
Average Cost Per Thousand (CPM) 30 $0.19 $0.21 $0.22 $0.21 $021 $0.19 $0.24 $0.26 $0.32 $0.25 $0.39 $0.63
Y/Y Growth 20% 1% 8% 7% -4% 1% 3% 13% 22% 55% 23% 53% 36%
CVO Growth -12% 13% 1% -4% -6% 24% 9% 23%
Global Advertising Revenue 3.154 872 992 1.086 1,329 4.279 1,245 1,599 1,693 1,952 6,489 8,&10 11,161
V/Y Growth 69% 37% 28% 36% 41% 36% 43% 61% 56% 47% 52% 36% 26%
0/0 Growth -8% 14% 9% 22% -6% 28% 6% 15%
Re Ana: Seakciovm
US & Canada
Actrenising Impressions (ri bdions) 4 455 1.203 1.103 1,212 1,337 4.6 : 1.265 1.169 1.175 1.283 4.893 4.697 4.509
WY Growth 8% -2% 14% 16% 9% 5% 6% -3% -4% 1% -4% -4%
0/0 Growth 4% -8% 10% 10% -5% -8% 1% 9%
Average Cost Per Thousand (CPM) $0. $0.35 30.43 $0.44 $047 $0.4 $0.44 $0.62 $0.63 $0.67 $0.59 $0.77 $0.96
WY Growth 16% 24% 20% 18% 2 25% 42% 42% 43% 38% 30% 25%
CVO Growth -13% 20% 2% 6% -8% 41% 2% 7%
US & Canada Advertising Revenue 1.583 419 479 538 631 2,0: 552 721 741 866 2,880 3,595 4,314
YN Growth 48% 26% 22% 36% 37% 31% 32% 51% 38% 37% 39% 25% 20%
% of Total Advertising Revenue 50% 48% 48% 50% 47% 48% 44% 45% 44% 44% 44% 41% 39%
Europe
Advenising Impressions On billions) 5.54 1.803 1.715 1.638 2.045 7.1 : 2,341 2,328 2,162 2,250 9.080 9.535 9.535
WY Growth 40% 26% 27% 27% 30% 30% 36% 32% 10% 26% 5% 0%
CVO Growth 12% -5% -5% 25% 14% -1% -7% 4%
Average Cost Per Thousand (CPM) $0.t $0.15 $0.17 $0.18 $0.18 $0.1 $0.16 $0.19 $0.20 $0.22 $0.19 $0.24 $0.30
V/Y Growth -5% -5% -5% -4% -5% 3% 13% 13% 20% 12% 25% 25%
CIO Growth -20% 13% 5% 2% -14% 24% 5% 8%
Europe Advertising Revenue 1.002 274 294 295 374 1,2 367 451 440 494 1,752 2,299 2,874
Y/Y Growth 81% 33% 20% 20% 22% 23% 34% 53% 49% 32% 42% 31% 25%
% of Total Adverosing Revenue 32% 31% 30% 27% 28% 29% 29% 28% 26% 25% 27% 26% 26%
Asia
Advenising Impressions (ri billions) 2.64 650 841 953 1.315 3.7 : 939 1.219 1,287 1.381 4,826 5.309 5.734
VittGrowth 28% 25% 30% 80% 42% 45% 45% 35% 5% 28% 10% 8%
0/0 Growth -11% 29% 13% 38% -29% 30% 6% 7%
Average Cost Per Thousand (CPM) $0.1 $0.15 $0.14 $0.14 $0.13 $0.14 $0.19 $0.18 $0.20 $0.19 $0.19 $0.24 $0.30
Y/Y Growth 38% 24% 16% -2% 17% 23% 35% 40% 45% 37% 28% 25%
CYO Growth 17% -10% 2% -6% 47% -1% 6% -5%
Asia Advertising Revenue 31 99 115 133 168 51 ' 176 225 251 256 908 1,279 1,726
Y/Y Growth 119% 77% 55% 51% 77% 65% 78% 96% 89% 52% 76% 41% 35%
% of Total Advertising Revenue 10% 11% 12% 12% 13% 12% 14% 14% 15% 13% 14% 14% 15%
Rest of World
Advenising impressions (ri barons) 3. 950 984 1,233 1,714 4.881 1.849 1.924 1.832 1.151 6,756 3,169 1,335
Y/Y Growth 77% 25% If% 93% 58% 95% 95% 49% -33% 38% -53% -58%
0/0 Growth 7% 1% 25% 39% 8% 4% 4% -37%
Average Cost Per Thousand (CPM) $0. $0.08 $0.11 10.10 $0.09 $0. ' $0.08 $0.10 $0.14 $0.29 $0.14 $0.52 $1.68
Y/Y Growth 5% 32% 22% 1% 14% -4% -1% 46% 221% 49% 272% 222%
CVO Growth -8% 25% -8% -6% -11% 29% 35% 106%
ROW Advertising Revenue 2 80 104 120 156 4 : 150 202 260 336 949 1,658 2,248
Y/Y Growth 934% 86% 65% 71% 95% 80% 88% 94% 117% 116% 106% 75% 36%
% of ToralAdverosi Revenue 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 11% 12% 13% 15% 17% 15% 19% 20%
Source: J.P. Morgan esbrnales. Company data.
9
EFTA01104721
Dote Anmuth
1
North America Equity Research
25 July 2013
J.P.Morgan
Figure 7: Facebook Revenue Drivers - Payments and Other Fees
2011A 1012A 2012A 3012A 4012A 2012A 1013A 2013A 3013E 4013E 2013E 2014
I Ml i
Olobol PaymoMs and Othoe Foos
Total Payments and Other Fax 557 156 192 176 256 410 213 214 203 201 631 788 762
WY GA:ren 425% 98% 0% 73% 36% 45% 15% t I% 15% -21% 3% .5% -3%
0'0 Womb a 2% .816 45% -17% 0% -5% -1%
0.96
R•vonue pot Avg. DAI) $1.35 30.37 30.34 3031 $0.43 $1.47 3033 30.31 30.21 30.27 $1.20 $1.00 30.48
WYGrakil 232% 37% 16% -13% 8% 7% -10% -12% -9% -37% -1595 47% -12%
CM0 GrOw01 -8% -3% -13% 37% -22% -5% -10% -5%
Revolt* For Avg. NAV IAPJF17. $0.77 30.21 $0.21 30.15 $025 30.8$ 3020 3.0.19 30.17 30.17 $0.72 30.60 30.51
YIY Grovel, 250% 406 23% -12% 9% 71% .8% .9% .4% 33% .15% -18% .14%
CVO GrOwtn . 7% -3% 03,, 16% .71% .4% 9%. -41,
20114 1012A 2012A 30124 40124 2012A 10134 20134 3013E 4013E 2013E 7014E 2015E
" 11___ _.- I
F•cobook Pisyniarito Revenue From Zyngs (30% lake: 436 120 101 88 151 462 75 57 57 62 251 225 210
YIY Groot, 35% .6% -24% 23% 6% -38% -45% -35% -59% -46% -70% -8%
On] Growth -2% -14% -15% 72% -50% -25% 1% 9%
% of FS Per11611:5 R.,, , ria. NA 64% 54% 50% 59% 57% 35% 26% 28% 31% 30% 29% 28%
% of Fe Total Rtet.140 NA 11% 9% 7% 10% 9% 6% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2%
Othor Psymonis Revenue (excl. Zynge; 121 64 59 III 105 346 13$ 157 144 139 580 563 552
YIY Grata NA NA 120% 105% 189% 709% 78% 65% 32% 87% -3% -2%
0.0 Growth 0% 34% 0% 19% 31% Id% -7% .5%
% of FB Payments Remits ut 36% 46% 50% 41% 43% 65% 74% 72% 69% 70% 71% 72%
Total 'setback Payments Revenue (Bottom-up 567 186 192 176 266 810 213 214 203 201 631 7811 762
WY Gromb 425% 98% 61% 13% 36% 45% 15% 11% 15% -21% 3% -5% -3%
000.'oalh 4% 2% -8% 45% -17% 0% -5% -1%
Source: J.P. Morgan esorriales. Company data.
10
EFTA01104722
Dow Anmuth
1
North America Equity Research
25 July 2013
J.P.Morgan
Figure 8: Facebook User Metrics by Region
2011A 1012A 20124 3012A 4012A 20124 10134 20134 3013E 4013E 2013E 2014E 2015E
set Moines
Monthly Active Users (MAU)
US 8 Canada 179 183 188 189 193 193 195 198 199 200 200 204 207
Europe 229 239 246 253 261 261 269 272 276 279 279 293 302
Asia 212 234 255 277 298 298 319 339 359 375 375 449 516
Rest of World 225 245 268 288 304 304 327 346 386 383 383 460 533
Total 845 901 955 1.007 1,058 1.058 1,110 1.155 1,199 1.238 1,238 1,40 1,558
WY Growth
US 8 Canada 18% 12% 10% 7% 8% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 2% 1%
Europe 25% 19% 16% 14% 14% 14% 13% 11% 9% 7% 7% 5% 3%
Asia 54% 50% 47% 41% 41% 41% 36% 33% 30% 26% 26% 20% 15%
Rest of World 69% 53% 46% 39% 35% 35% 33% 29% 27% 26% 26% 20% 16%
Teta/ 39% 33% 29% 26% 25% 25% 23% 21% 19% 17% 17% 14% 11%
gauntry mug
US 8 Canada 21% 20% 19% 19% 18% 18% 18% 17% 17% 16% 16% (5% 13%
Europe 27% 27% 26% 25% 25% 25% 24% 24% 23% 23% 23% 21% 19%
Asia 25% 26% 27% 28% 28% 28% 29% 29% 30% 30% 30% 32% 33%
Rost of World 27% 27% 28% 29% 29% 29% 29% 30% 31% 31% 31% 33% 34%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Mobile MAU 432 488 543 604 680 880 751 819 875 928 928 1.13 1,324
Y/Y Growth 76% 69% 67% 81% 57% 57% 54% 51% 45% 37% 37% 23% 16%
0/O Growth 13% 11% 11% 13% 10% 9% 7% 6%
% of total MAUs 51% 54% 57% 60% 64% 64% 68% 71% 73% 75% 75% 81% 85%
Mobile-Only MAU 58 83 102 126 157 157 189 219 248 266 268 387 499
Y/Y Growth 287% 277% 240% 215% 171% 171% 128% 115% 95% 69% 69% 45% 29%
0/O Growth 43% 23% 24% 25% 20% 16% 12% 8%
% of total MAUs 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 15% 17% 19% 21% 22% 22% 28% 32%
Web and Mobile MAU 374 405 441 478 523 523 562 600 630 662 862 762 826
Y/Y Growth 63% 52% 49% 42% 40% 40% 39% 36% 32% 27% 27% 14% 10%
CVO Growth 8% 9% 8% 9% 7% 7% 5% 5%
% of total MAUs 44% 45% 46% 47% 50% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 54% 54% 53%
Web MAU 787 818 853 881 899 899 921 936 953 972 972 1.019 1.059
Y/Y Growth 33% 24% 20% 1896 14% 14% 13% 10% 8% 8% 8% 5% 4%
0/0 Growth 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
% of total MAUs 93% 91% 89% 87% 85% 85% 83% 81% 80% 79% 79% 73% 68%
Web Only MAU 413 413 412 403 376 376 359 336 324 309 309 267 234
Y/Y Growth 14% 5% 0% -5% -9% -9% -13% -18% -20% •18% •18% -14% -12%
CVO Growth 0% 0% -2% -7% -5% -6% -4% -4%
% of total MAUs 49% 46% 43% 40% 38% 36% 32% 29% 27% 25% 25% 19% 15%
Daily Active Users (DAU)
US 8 Canada 126 129 130 132 135 135 139 142 143 144 144 151 155
Europe 143 152 154 160 169 169 179 182 190 195 195 211 222
Asia 105 119 129 141 153 153 187 181 194 207 207 260 310
Rest of World 109 126 139 151 161 161 180 194 208 222 222 290 352
Total 483 526 552 584 618 618 665 699 738 768 768 912 1,039
Mobile DAUs 293 329 374 374 425 489
Y/Y Growth 60%
0/0 Growth 12% 14% 14% 10%
% of Mobile MAUs 54% 54% 55% 55% 57% 57%
DAU as % of MAU
US 8 Canada 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 71% 72% 72% 72% 72% 74% 75%
Europe 62% 64% 63% 63% 65% 65% 67% 67% 69% 70% 70% 72% 74%
Asia 50% 51% 51% 51% 51% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 55% 58% 60%
Rest of World 48% 51% 52% 52% 53% 53% 55% 56% 57% 58% 58% 63% 66%
Total 57% 58% 58% 58% 59% 59% 60% 61% 61% 62% 62% 65 67%
WY Growth
US 8 Canada 27% 23% 17% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9% 8% 7% 7% 5% 3%
Europe 34% 27% 21% 19% 18% 18% 18% 18% 19% 16% 16% 8% 5%
Asia 64% 65% 52% 44% 46% 46% 40% 40% 37% 35% 35% 28% 19%
Rest of World 91% 68% 58% 51% 48% 48% 43% 40% 38% 38% 38% 30% 22%
TOMf 48% 41% 32% 28% 28% 28% 26% 27% 26% 24% 24% 19% 14%
Country Mix
US 8 Canada 26% 25% 24% 23% 22% 22% 21% 20% 19% 19% 19% 17% 15%
Europa 30% 29% 28% 27% 27% 27% 27% 26% 26% 25% 25% 23% 21%
Asia 22% 23% 23% 24% 25% 25% 25% 26% 26% 27% 27% 29% 30%
Rest of World 23% 24% 25% 28% 26% 26% 27% 28% 28% 29% 29% 32% 34%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Source: J.P. Morgan estrreles. Company dela.
11
EFTA01104723
North America Equity Research
25 July 2013
J.P.Morgan
Facebook: Summary of Financials
Income Statement - Annual FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E Income Statement - Quarterly 1013A 2013A 3013E 4013E
Revenues 5.089 7.320 9.618 11.924 Revenues 1.458A 1.813A 1.896 2.153
Operating income 538 2.210 3.126 4,012 Operating income 373A 562A 573 674
D&A 649 965 1.111 1,396 D&A 241A 230A 245 249
EBITDA 1,187 3.175 4236 5.439 EBITDA 614A 792A 818 923
Net interest Income f (expense) (37) 0 0 0 Net interest income / (expense) (15)A (11)A 0 0
Other income 1(expense) (44) (16) 102 162 Other kome I (expense) (20)A (17)A 0 21
Pretax income 494 2.191 3228 4,204 Pretax income 353A 545A 573 035
Inane taxes (441) (904) (1.356) (1,724) Income taxes (134)A (212)A (252) (306)
Nel Income 53 1290 1.872 2,481 Net Income 219A 333A 321 389
VYaghted average ct'Wed shares 2,474 2.507 2.557 2,608 Weighted average diluted shares 2,499A 2.502A 2,511 2,515
Diluted EPS 0.54 0.74 0.98 1.25 Muted EPS 0.12A 0.19A 0.19 023
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Data FY12A FY13E FY14E RISE Ratio Analysis FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E
Cash and cash equiralents 2,384 3.842 7.133 10,601 Sales growth 37.1% 43.8% 31A% 24.0%
Accounts receivable 719 861 1.020 1,192 EBITDA growth 26A% 39.4% 25.8% 25.3%
Other ctrrent assets 922 1206 1250 1,443 EPS growth 53% 38.0% 322% 27.6%
Current assets 11,267 13.160 16.654 20.687
PP&E 2,391 3.066 4.1(0 4.509 EBITDA margin 57.2% 55.4% 532% 53.6%
Total assets 15,103 17,952 22.479 27.323 Net margin 26.0% 25.3% 262% 27.3%
Total debt 1,500 0 0 0 Debt / EBITDA 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total labittes 3,348 2,140 2.358 2.560
Shareholders equity 11,755 15.812 20.121 24.762 Return on assets (ROA) 12.2% 112% 12.4% 13.1%
Return on equity (ROE) 15.6% 13.4% 132% 145%
Net Income (inducing charges) 53 1262 1.872 2.481
D&A 649 965 1.111 1.396 Enterprise value I EBITDA 19.0 12.9 9.6 7.1
Change in working capital (513) (98) 16 (163) Enterprea value I Free cash low 135.6 22.6 15.1 10.8
Other FIE 1237.6 515 36.2 27.9
Cash flow from operations 1,614 3.544 4.881 5.875
Capes (1,235) (1.224) (1.635) (1,669)
Free cash flow 409 2.320 3246 4,205
Cash flow from imesfing actiNibes (7,024) (1A53) (1.635) (1,669)
Cash flow from financing activities 6,283 (78) (510) (537)
Dividends
Dividend yield
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Note: h rams (except per-snare data).Fiscal year ends Dec
12
EFTA01104724
Dou Mrnuth
1
North America Equity Research
25 July 2013 J.P.Morgan
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Facebook (FB. FB US) Price Chart
Date Rating Share Price Price Target
(S) ($)
27-Jun-12 OW 33.10 45.00
04-Sep-12 OW 18.06 30.00
05-Oct-12 OW 20.91 28.00
24-Oct-12 OW 23.23 29.00
02-Jan-13 OW 28.00 35.00
•
Aug Dec Mar Jul
12 12 19 15
Societe. Bloomitipp and JP. Morph. price data aidpittocl foe scoot splits mid disidtalds_
'Mimed CO.OINO Jun 27. 2012.
13
EFTA01104725
Dots Anmuth
1
North America Equity Research
25 July 2013
J.P.Morgan
The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire
period.
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Coverage Universe: Anmuth, Doug: Amazon.com (AMZN), Bankrate Inc (RATE), CafePress, Inc. (PRSS), Expedia, Inc. (EXPE),
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Yahoo Inc (YHOO), Zynga Inc (ZNGA), eBay, Inc (EBAY)
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Dose Anmuth
1
North America Equity Research
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J.P.Morgan
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Doug Anmuth
1
North America Equity Research
25 July 2013
J.P.Morgan
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