Deutsche Bank
Markets Research
Date
• US Integrated Oils 31 May 2015
North America
United States
Industrials
Integrated Oil
Hyatt [odd !v.:4 Crnuram
Research Analyst Researdi Analyst
1+11212 250-8342 (+1) 212 250-4278
ryan.todd@db.com igor.grinmarY.Pdb.com
Dav,J Firroculta
Research Associate
1+11212 250.3191
davIdiernandez@db.com
F.I.T.T. for investors
The "Other" 40 Million Barrels a Day
and the Call on US Crude Growth
The Coming Highs & Lows of Non-OPEC Production (and what it means for US)
While significant attention has been dedicated to the analysis of the US supply dynamics over
past 6 months, we turn our attention to the less-well understood 40 MMb/d of global crude
production (ex-OPEC, ex-US onshore, ex-NGLs), and the outlook for the coming 2-5 years. Key
takeaways: 1) Don't expect a major roll-over in Non-OPEC supply through 2017, 2) we still see a
call on US onshore growth of 500 Mb/d in 2017 with 2H16 ramp 3) we likely need $65-$70/bbl oil
to incentivize and support this growth, 4) post-2017, Non-OPEC shortages to drive rapidly
escalating call on US crude and price inflation.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
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consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015.
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