broad dollar (chart 3). On a more simplistic level, RUB has been the best performer in EM over the past month, and the
only currency to remain unchanged versus the dollar in this period of broad dollar strength (Figure 4).
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2) RUB is very cheap
After the bout of sanctions-related weakness, RUB now stands out as very cheap on fundamental valuation metrics. On
our preferred DBeer model — which captures inflation, terms of trade and productivity — RUB is now 10% undervalued,
the cheapest it has been since 2016 (Figures 5 and 6).
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0090091
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00236275
EFTA01387448