28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Deutsche Bank CI
Euro area (EUR
Figure 1: The basic balance has turned positive... Figure 2: ...as current account surplus outweigh the
net FDI outflows
200 150 100
1.6 100 - 60
103
1.5 50 -
0 -y 1.4 0 -so
-100 1.3 .60
-100
1.2 -100
-200 -150
1.1 -150
-300 1.0 .200 -203
—C lot to t 12 moth
0.9 -260 -250
-400 Bmle B moue 12-inaren Met F01 12 month
Q0
-300 -300
.500 USCVEUR 0.7 J en-01 Jan43 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jar.09 Jan-11 Jan-13
Feb.01 Feb03 Feb06 Feb07 Feb09 Feb.11 Feb.13
E.M.. C.8 FA ,r. Ary
Figure 3: EUR/USD strongly correlated (0.88) with Figure 4: Bilateral basic balance explains 84% of
bilateral basic balance with the US EUR/USD movements since inception of the euro
D3 200
100 — Eti lateral Be sic Bs lance,legged (6m) 0.80
FORUM:00.0 0326•90tva1 94nc esurcot.
USD .1 129
110 EURUSD(th s) I BO I90
Semple I119N16-20079A4
60 1.06 Ob senentton 17
1.90 190
10
40 40
-40 1 30
-93 120 IA
.140 Correlation= 0 ES 1.55
1.00 1.00
-190
-240 090
vv I Mal LARtA13
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inta Jan-01 .1.M:3 ltn05 hnO7 lt"09 hail hal
Jun-99 Jun01 Ji.n03 JunCS Ji4.07 Juiu:9 Jun41 Jun13
?rut* C€ PA Pc-Awci+ E.rog.v
kw. CO fl Ry.yay. 4.1CVOS.
Figure 5: The bilateral basic balance with the US has Figure 6: ...as US purchases of euro area bonds have
moved in favor of the US recently.. . continued to be replaced by sales
--13inonal Baia BOanco 100
ISO 160 — Not A.;ency
•••••—. Net Non Toomey Ftw• IIM Not Compote.
100 Natal T o Balance 100 —1011 rot IA one
12/A eel Ibett nodes 11
• tit
SO SO 12m MM Pomp. eorott,i 1
0 0 20 20
-93
.20 -20
-100 100
493 450
-200 .200
-11:0 400
.250 .250 Dez-77 Dec43 Dec-03 Dec-96 Da-01 Dec-07 Dec-13
Dec-90 Dec-01 Doc-04 Dec-07 Dec-10 Doc-13 Sane Deutsche foor 4, 4 VS rrcovin
Sow* OP Fr A•Ndith MP Anita
Pago 24 Deutsche Bank AG/Lonclon
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