To: Tazia Smith; Vinit Sahni
Subject: usdcad update for JE (IJ
Classification: For internal use only
three points
1. commodity px are much higher - bullish cad
2. CAD 2 swa • rate tit her not lower as i had ex • - cte vs US rates coin • ared to 2mths a o - bullish cad
1.&165
1.6000 Last 0.8755
Mean 0.932
-17.95 Off Avg -0.0565
1.3460 ttedlan 0.9566
0.0796
Low: 1.2460 1.2000 5tDey from mean
St0ev -0.7098
Last Price Percentile 28.4615
cl CDSW2 Curncy 1.3460 1.0000 huh 09/18/13 1.0675
n USSW2 Curncy 0.4705 Low 01/23/14 0.754
0.8000
0.6000
;• 0.4705
U.94.S.X./
CDSW2 Curncy - USSW2 Curncy 0.8755 LOS
1.00
0.95
.8755
0.85
0.80
0.75
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2013 2014
CDSW2 Cun, (CAD NAP 2 YR) Daily CSSEP2013-05MAR2014 Copyright@ 2014 Bloomberg Finance L.P. OS-Mar-2014 12:56:14
canada still has v vulnerable housing sector and several high profile clients have been exiting canadian risk (pimco ed
devlin in ft last week) but nevertheless given 1 and 2 above im less bearish cad vs usd than 2mths ago when JE entered
the trade.
so given 1 and 2 im surprised usdcad hasnt moved lower - i dont have a view on usdcad here and therefore dont like the
trade anymore
Nav
Nav Gupta
Managing Director
Deutsche Bank AG, Male London
Deutsche Asset a Wealth Management
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