There is increasing nervousness ahead of Sunday's referendum in Crimea.
G7 leaders said they would not recognize the outcome of the referendum,
while Russia has maintained that they were prepared to "mirror" any sanctions
There were reports of Russian military "training exercises" along the border yesterday
Key events to watch today:
1) Russian Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secy of State John Kerry meet in London.
This is a last-ditch effort to de-escalate the situation
2) Central Bank of Russia meeting today at 9:30 where Bloomberg survey expects no change
Swaps curve is pricing in over a 100bp hike. How will the central bank react to FX pressures?
Ongoing tensions justify a cautious approach into the weekend.
Tactically go long 1m WTI Calls 101 ($1) and short DAX
Russia 5 swa
CIVV1.
1
• Last Price 9.3850
T High on 03/14/14 9.3850 9.0000
4- Average 7.2356
1 Low on 08/08/13 6.8600 8.5000
8.0000
7.5000
rt\
7.0000
Mar Jun Sep Dec tar
2013 2014
RRSWMS Curncy (RUB SWAP VS M0SPRIME 5VR) Daily 14MAR2013-14MAR2014
Copyright? 2014 Bloomberg Finance L.P. 14-Mar-2014 07:18:48
WTI Crude Oil future A •r14
103.00
• CLJ4 COMB Comdty 98.17
T High on 03/09 22:00 102.82 102.00
-I- Average 99.70
.1 Low on 03/12 16:01 97.55 101.00
• Prey Close 102.58
100.00
99.00
10 11 12 13 14
Mar 2014
C1.34 (WIT CRUDE FUTURE Apria) 5 Days Tick Ccpyrigi 2014 1310amtersi Finance LP.
14-Plac-2014 07:20:45
CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 110807
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00256991
EFTA01453283