PM* mmiliont
Ftcm.
Th ey5 Nana
kwortmall t* is
Atte.4.404.5 NrspntLos
004101.0
144011.0401044011 0001
The big picture
Our strategic forecasts
The Fed decided to postpone its first rate hike. Its decision was
not focused on the U.S. economy alone but on the deceleration of
growth in emerging markets.
Asoka Wahrmann, Chief Investment Officer
Economic data Capital markets
OP:
02-ited Suatcl 2.3 or 2.4 urivul Sum;StP 500 In.*-0 1,943 A 2.160 13
Eumntync 1.4 1.6 fume: (5715)0 Etna'', MO maux, 34/ 1 390 16
Unttd Kegdorn 2.5 2.2 Eusomom IEIJRO 510X4 50 Undo.' 3,076 A 3,600 21
Japan 0.6 0 1.2 Gennury WAX, 9,5/1 P 11,400 19
Our.) 6.6 1 6.0 IM•iucc Kundwo iFESE 15O 000; 5,936 1 6,500 13
WrAd 3.2 1 3.5 ...srun !PA-SUSI:pin imsms 999 1 1,020 17
MSC! Eftwoop Male!, lire., 808 -. 790 1
World (GDP growth)
MSC! AC Apt 04 .010,14: mete 497 .0 510 6
3.2% a 3.5 % MSCI EM 1.30 '0 0310004 - 1,920 1 1,700 9
9,571 $ 11,400
We revise our global growth forecast for 2016 down by 0.3
percentage points. Global growth will be particularly hampered
by decelerating growth in emerging markets.
(Current 25 i i;f)
The recent sell-off was caused by low growth figures from China
n in PtrCent (year-on•yeaff and renminbi devaluation. The DAX suffered severe losses and is
now moderately valued compared to other European markets.
2015 tfi 2016 (F)
0.1 •L 1.4 1.6 s 0.7x0.8
United Statet Japan
Eurozone
F refers to forecasts. Our forecasts are as of 9/21/15.
1.5 u1.2 0.5$1.8 Past performance is not Indicative of future returns.
It is not possible to invest directly in an index. No assurance can
be given that any forecast or target will be reached Forecasts
China United Kingdom are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical
models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. Investments
A continuing economic recovery and the fading effect of low oil come with risk. The value of an investment can tall as well as
prices should boost inflation in the Eurozone next year. rise and your capital may be at risk. You might not get back the
amount originally invested at any point in time.
si 0 =Az—. CFSMeet 1110‘44,mi famed Omoinf 2015
CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0118577
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00264761
EFTA01458597