11 September 2015
Asset Allocation
Figure 15: Gold and industrial metals in particular still remain very expensive
--Industrial metals price —Fated model ind metals price index
Fitted (Log Real IM Metals Pnce) = 16.9 -2.541Ln USOTW1) + 3.71World Output Gap)
550 (-172.2) 163.61 550
500 rstimated Sample Period: Jan 1993 to Feb 2013 500
P-Squared = 86%
450 450
400 400
350 u 350
300 300
250 -1rY. 250
200 200
150 150
100 3 r 100
8 8 th ;5
O O O O O O O O O O O O
s=ew lecotrbeg /Vino LA Hoe. DalsaManit
Figure 16: Underlying earnings growth, i.e., adjusted for the impacts of oil
price declines and the dollar up cycle are robust across the developed
markets
02 2015 Earnings growth yoy exci crude and currency Impacts
US EMU Japan
a companies reported 487 132 168
Proportion of companies beating estimates (%) 73.1 60.6 68.5
Initial headline growth expectation (%) -5.1 10.7 14.5
Size of beat (blended. pp) 4.9 05 18.8
Final headline growth (%) -02 112 332
Energy sector impact on headline (pp) -6.1 -0.1 NM
Currency impact on headline (pp) -4.8 4.0 3.9
Growth ex dl and FX impacts, % 10.8 7.4 29A
Skin. Neat Oa<hem. ant
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 11
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