EFTA01459044

As a result, most focus on 16 December beyond the hike decision will be on clues for what to expect next from the Fed How to read the Fed FOMC meeting on 16 December 'I The statement 2 Economic projections • Assessment of US economy bor.. prinlaw• ft,e, 4 0.1•Nelt •• S. el Ia. *Little change expected lrella • Guidance on future policy • Some scope for lowering: - Pace of hikes - Inflation forecast: dovish, - Reinvestment policy* .......,-,.. .... ,._ .... ,... .... ......_ ........ ............ 4., ... .... ... signals gradual pace Discussion of risks, e.g., global - Unemployment forecast: growth, oil prices, dollar hawkish • Last sentence of statement, i.e., signal that policy will remain accommodative • Any dissents to statement 3 Dots plot (individual members' projections of Fed funds rate) 4 Chair Yellen press conference • Only marginal downward • Overall tone revisions expected • Conditions that Fed needs to • Long-run median may come see to continue hiking down — leading to lower dots • What would lead the Fed to trajectory pause or stop hiking • Guidance on reinvestment policy* and interplay between rates and reinvestments Nolo (') Cuttontly. tho Fed toinvests its maturing holdings of MBS and Troesunes purchased during OE. Deutsche Bank r4tit . ei3 oi nt 1ribitt : , hat ietha mtr;a cti ttroateh db 5:irn CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 119254 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00265438 EFTA01459044