EFTA01475956

Deutsche Bank Research Global Cross-Discipline Date 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016 Managing with less liquidity David Folkerts-Landau 'tors Peter Hooper Chief Economist Matthew Luzzetti Chief Economist Mark Wall Chief Economist Torsten Slok hi f E n mi t Deutsche Bank AG/London DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015. EFTA01475956 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Table of Contents Global Overview Managing with less liquidity US Dollar drag Europe Not a global engine Japan Return to steady recovery trend China Rising challenges to trigger further policy easing Asia (ex Japan) Triple troubles Latin America Still adjusting to low commodity prices Bond Market Strategy Peak policy divergence US Credit US credit feels the pressure of high commodity exposure European Credit Strategy To follow the US or march to its own beat? US Equity Strategy Still low Treasury yields despite Fed hikes to boost S&P PE — Heavy tilts to Health Care & Tech European Equity Strategy 7% upside in 2016 but beware of the risk of a near-term correction FX Strategy Plenty of run left in the USD upswing Commodities Supply adjustment is well underway for oil, not so for the metals Global Asset Allocation The case for normalization Geopolitics The EU's geopolitical crisis eclipses its economic crisis Forecast table Key Economic Forecasts Key Financial Forecasts Long-term Forecasts Contacts 3 18 23 32 34 37 40 42 49 51 EFTA01475957 53 57 59 61 67 71 74 76 77 78 Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01475958 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Global Overview: Managing with less liquidity IIThe long-awaited turn toward the normalization of US monetary policy should finally get under way next week, with the Fed set to raise rates for the first time since 2006. In the year ahead, we could also see signals that the monetary spigots in Europe will begin to close as well. While such indications are probably more than a year away in Japan, we do not expect the BoJ to add to its asset purchases. In a world that has been awash with central bank liquidity for most of the past decade, the central question for the year ahead is how the global economy and financial markets will react as the tap on that liquidity begins to tighten. IIWhile the pivot away from this great monetary experiment is unprecedented and will not be without risks, we expect the world economy and financial markets to weather this turn in policy reasonably well. Supporting this adjustment is the expectation that major central banks -- and the Fed in particular -- will be moving far more cautiously than they have in the past as they withdraw accommodation. IIThe economic backdrop should allow for this gradual pace of policy normalization, at least initially. Global growth is expected to rebound gradually from the weakest growth rate since the financial crisis in 2015. Growth in advanced economies is projected to hold steady just shy of 2% over the next three years, with growth in the US slowing to near 2%, Europe's steady recovery continuing and Japan rebounding from disappointing growth this year. IIThe coming year should see growth in emerging market economies rebound, as the severe contractions in Russia and Brazil moderate and recent declines in export growth are expected to reverse, albeit weakly. Nonetheless, 2016 will be challenging for the emerging markets as falling commodity prices and still-weak global trade growth extend the recent experience with budgetary and balance of payments pressures. China is expected to continue its gradual deceleration, offering little respite to commodity producers. IIMarket interest rates should rise next year — we see the 10-year Treasury yield ending the year at 2.5% with risks skewed to the upside -- as the market prices a tightening Fed. US credit spreads are likely to widen further as defaults rise moderately, but we do not see Fed hikes proving problematic for credit next year. The US dollar upswing should continue, though at a more modest pace. And we see equities remaining resilient and presenting some upside, as long as the rise in rates is limited and orderly. IIThe risks around our baseline view seem more numerous than in the past due to the unprecedented shift in monetary policy. The main downside is that the market adjustment to a tightening Fed is more adverse than we anticipate. A spike in yields could set off a significant re-pricing of EFTA01475959 global risk assets. This reaction would intensify if the Fed finds itself behind the curve as inflation rises from a tight labor market. Beyond the Fed, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China next year would have obvious knock-on effects on commodities, global trade and emerging markets. Meanwhile, intensified European political risk is also possible if differences of opinion between countries on divisive themes like the refugee crisis spill over into other policy areas IIOn the positive side, a surprising recovery in productivity growth in advanced economies, especially the US, would allow normalization to proceed very slowly and support a stronger recovery on the demand side of the economy. Risks are also skewed to the upside of our US economic outlook. The rebound in business fixed investment from a low base could be stronger than expected, especially with the peak impact from the drop in oil likely behind us, and the drag from a stronger dollar should begin to wane after mid-year. Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 3 EFTA01475960 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Introduction and Summary Barring a significant negative economic or financial shock in the week ahead, the long-awaited turn toward the normalization of US monetary policy should finally get under way before the end of this year. The 25-basis-point fed funds rate hike now widely anticipated at the Fed's December meeting would be the first such move since June 2006. In the year ahead, we could also see signals that the monetary spigots in Europe will begin to close as well. While such signals are probably more than a year away in Japan, we don't expect the BoJ to add to its asset purchases, implying a gradual easing of stimulus there. In a world that has been awash with central bank liquidity for most of the past decade, there is both great curiosity and great concern about how the global economy and financial markets will react as the tap is finally shut on that liquidity. This question is a central focus of our World Outlook for 2016. The pivot away from this great monetary experiment is unprecedented and will not be without risks. However, we expect both the world economy and global financial markets to weather this turn in policy reasonably well, partly because major central banks -- and the Fed in particular -- have made it abundantly clear that they will be moving far more cautiously than they have in the past as they withdraw accommodation. Markets appear so far to have settled comfortably into the expectation that the Fed will be moving very slowly, expecting only about half the pace of hikes as the median Fed expectation, which is, in turn, about half the pace of historical Fed hiking cycles. The economic backdrop should allow for this gradual pace of policy normalization, at least initially. Global growth has been slowed by significant headwinds on both the demand side and the supply side of major economies. While moderate consumer spending growth has increasingly been the principal driver of a sluggish recovery, capital spending has been very slow to advance. A result of weak business investment has been that labor productivity growth has slowed to historically low rates in advanced economies. The inevitable slowing of China's economy to a more sustainable pace has also been a significant headwind to growth with dramatic implications for the world economy. China's slowdown has been a major factor underlying the weakening of commodity markets, trade flows, business investment, and manufacturing activity globally. But the slow growth of supply—or decline in potential growth—has also meant that sluggish recoveries in demand have been able to achieve considerable progress in removing economic slack. The US and Japanese economies are already nearing full employment, and even Europe's labor market has shown gains. The progress to date in reducing unemployment will help, along with the stabilization of energy and other commodity prices, to push inflation higher in the year ahead from recent extreme lows. The prospective pickup in wage and price inflation, as well as the continuing improvement in the labor EFTA01475961 market, is what is inducing the Fed to commence policy normalization. Spillovers from the Fed's move will help the ECB and the BoJ to achieve their inflation targets, as prospective rate increases in the US further strengthen the dollar against the euro and the yen. This raises the question of how far this policy divergence can go. Economic slack is declining enough to push Europe's core inflation close to its historical average by end-2016. Stable and eventually rising commodity prices, supportive currency developments, and rising inflation expectations could lead the ECB to start talking before year end about tapering in 2017. In this light, the recent extension of its QE program, while disappointing to the markets, could prove to have been unnecessary. For the Bo], any change in policy stance seems unlikely until well after the April 2017 consumption tax increase. Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01475962 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity But the changing market expectations for ECB and Bo] policy have the potential to induce another bout of market turbulence akin to the taper tantrum of mid-2013, though likely with more limited implications for the global economy and financial markets. While our baseline scenario sees a global economy that continues to grow at a moderate pace over the next two years, there are substantial risks on either side. On the down side, global financial markets could respond much more negatively to Fed normalization than we expect, with adverse repercussions for household and business spending around the globe. The gap between the market's and the Fed's forecasts for interest rates suggests that this negative response could result from an upward adjustment in market expectations towards the Fed, even without more aggressive tightening than the Fed currently envisions. A signal that the Fed will begin to wind down its reinvestment of securities could add to this turbulence. This downside risk would be exacerbated if there were a surprising resurgence of inflation pressures in the US as the unemployment rate moves below full employment. Such a development would likely prompt the Fed to adopt a significantly more rapid pace of normalization. A more aggressive Fed would, in turn, be negative for risk assets with potentially strong depressing effects on aggregate demand. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in China next year would have obvious knock-on effects on commodities, global trade and emerging markets. But on the positive side, it is possible that the recent poor performance of productivity growth globally (especially in the US) has been an aberration, and that recent technological advances could spur a surprising recovery. Faster supply-side growth would allow normalization to proceed very slowly and support a stronger recovery on the demand side of the economy. In addition, the risks to our US outlook are skewed to the upside: the peak drag on business investment from the sharp drop in oil prices is likely behind us, and the drag from net exports from the dollar surge is likely to dissipate beyond mid- year. In what follows, we begin by presenting our baseline forecast for the global economy and financial markets, with an emphasis on 2016, but also a peek into 2017. We then provide a more detailed description of the outlook for the globe's major economic blocks. Next, we summarize our asset class views for the year ahead. We conclude by fleshing out the upside and downside risks to our baseline outlook in more detail. Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 5 EFTA01475963 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Global outlook Disappointing global growth to pick up slightly next year Growth in global economic activity is now projected to bottom this year and rise gradually toward trend by 2017, led primarily by an acceleration in emerging market economies. We expect global growth will have dipped to 3.1% in 2015, its slowest pace since the global financial crisis in 2009. This slowdown has been driven primarily by a deceleration in emerging market economies, where growth is expected to have fallen by more than one-half of a percentage point from 2014. The sharp contractions in Russia and Brazil are the main reason for this deceleration. Conversely, faster growth in the euro area and Japan implies a modest pickup in growth in advanced economies this year. Over the next two years changes in the global growth outlook are likely to be driven entirely by fluctuations in emerging market growth. Next year growth is projected to rise gradually, as the severe contractions in Russia and Brazil moderate. This should help boost emerging market growth by almost one-half of a percentage point, even with growth slowing further in China. But the emerging markets growth story is not simply a technical one: recent declines in export growth should reverse, albeit weakly, providing a more positive basis for recovery than the 'less bad' Brazil and Russia outlooks. Growth in advanced economies should remain stable at just below 2% in 2016, as a more- thandoubling in growth in Japan and a slight pickup in the euro area offset deceleration in the US. Further acceleration in global economic activity in 2017 is likely to be due to additional improvement in Russia and Brazil, while a pickup in India and stability in China would imply a modest acceleration in emerging Asia. Advanced economy growth is once again expected to remain just shy of 2% in 2017, despite a halving of growth in Japan. Figure 2: Fluctuations in growth in emerging market economies driving global growth dynamics over next two years GDP growth, % G7 US Japan Euro area Asia (ex-Japan) China India EEMEA Russia Latin America Brazil EM economies Global EFTA01475964 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 1.8 1.7 2.4 -0.1 0.9 6.4 7.3 7.1 2.4 0.6 0.8 0.1 Advanced economies 1.7 4.6 3.4 Source: Deutsche Bank Research 1.9 2.4 0.7 1.5 6.1 7.0 7.3 1.0 -3.7 -0.8 -3.7 1.9 4.0 3.1 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.6 6.1 6.7 7.5 1.9 -0.7 -0.1 -2.4 1.9 4.4 3.3 2.1 0.8 1.5 6.3 6.7 7.8 EFTA01475965 2.5 0.5 2.2 1.0 1.8 4.9 3.6 1.5 1.6 2.8 0.4 3.4 2.0 6.7 6.0 7.8 CPI inflation, % 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.1 2.4 1.4 4.9 8.7 15.6 9.0 0.3 5.6 3.4 1.5 1.9 0.7 0.9 2.9 1.8 5.4 6.7 9.2 8.5 1.4 5.9 4.0 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.6 2.9 1.8 5.0 EFTA01475966 5.9 7.1 12.5 15.2 18.8 19.4 6.3 6.2 1.3 5.3 3.6 2.0 5.7 4.2 Figure 1: Global growth to rise toward trend from its slowest pace since 2009 10 % yoy -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Real GDP growth Forecasts World Advanced economies Emerging economies Note: Trend period: 1995:2017 Source: IMF, Haver Analytics LP, Deutsche Bank Research Page 6 Deutsche Bank AG/London 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 EFTA01475967 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EFTA01475968 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Growth marked down broadly this year and next Compared to our previous global update in June, growth has once again been marked down broadly for 2015 and 2016. Sharper-than-expected contractions in emerging market economies were the main downside surprise to our growth forecast for 2015. Projectedd growth in Russia has been marked down by 0.5 percentage points — after downward revisions earlier this year, while the forecast for Brazil has been reduced 2.3 percentage points since June. On the other hand, growth expectations for advanced economies were upgraded modestly, as upside surprises to growth in the US and the euro area more than offset disappointing growth in Japan. Figure 3: Global growth projections revised down for 2015 and 2016 GDP forecast & revision (% yoy) Forecast level Current G7 US Japan Euro area Asia (ex-Japan) China India EEMEA Russia Latin America Brazil Advanced economies EM economies Global 1.9 2.4 0.7 1.5 6.1 7.0 7.3 1.0 -3.7 -0.8 -3.7 1.9 4.0 3.1 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.6 6.1 6.7 7.5 EFTA01475969 1.9 -0.7 -0.1 -2.4 1.9 4.4 3.3 2.1 0.8 1.5 6.3 6.7 7.8 2.5 0.5 2.2 1.0 1.8 4.9 3.6 Forecast change since June 15 WO Update 2015F 2016F 2017F 2015F 2016F 2017F 1.8 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -1.0 -2.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -2.0 -3.0 -0.4 -0.5 EFTA01475970 -0.4 Note: June 15 World Outlook update forecasts have been recalculated using IMF WEO October -15 PPP weights Source: Deutsche Bank Research The downward revision to expected global growth is more significant and broad-based for 2016. This growth is now expected to be 0.4 percentage points slower next year compared to our June forecasts, as advanced and emerging market economies were downgraded by similar amounts. Within advanced economies, the downward revision to US growth (-0.9 percentage points) is most severe. This downgrade is due mostly to the increased drag on net exports from greater-than-expected dollar appreciation, while reduced estimates of potential growth have also contributed. Expected growth in Japan was also revised down, though by a more modest 0.3 percentage points, while the growth outlook in the euro area is unchanged. Once again, Russia and Brazil represent the main downgrades to growth within emerging markets, while our outlook for a slight slowdown in China and pickup in India is unchanged. DB's top-line global growth forecast roughly consistent with alternative projections Our downgraded global growth forecast is about in line with outside alternatives from the IMF and Bloomberg through 2017. However, this consistency masks significant regional differences. In particular, while our US growth forecasts are nearly one-half of a percentage point below alternative Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 7 n.a -0.7 -0.2 -0.1 n.a 0.0 -0.2 n.a -0.8 n.a -1.1 n.a n.a n.a EFTA01475971 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity forecasts for 2016 and 2017, our China growth forecasts are a few tenths above alternatives over this same timeframe. The Chinese government may clarify in the coming weeks its growth target for 2016, and forecasts for growth below 6.5% may be revised higher if, as seems likely, the government's target is at least that high. Meanwhile, our outlook for growth to remain near 1.5% in the euro area is close to alternative forecasts from the IMF, Bloomberg and Consensus Economics. Figure 4: In-line global growth forecasts mask regional differences Consensus Forecast table, GDP growth, % Global DB (Jun'15 WO) DB (Current) Bloomberg (Nov Survey) Bloomberg (DB aggregation) IMF (Oct'15) IMF (DB aggregation) US DB (Jun'15 WO) DB (Current) Bloomberg (Nov Survey) IMF (Oct'15) Consensus Economics (Oct Survey) Euro area DB (Jun'15 WO) DB (Current) Bloomberg (Nov Survey) IMF (Oct'15) Consensus Economics (Oct Survey) China DB (Jun'15 WO) DB (Current) Bloomberg (Nov Survey) IMF (Oct'15) Consensus Economics (Oct Survey) 2015F 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.5 1.4 1.5 EFTA01475972 1.5 1.5 1.5 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 n.a 2016F 3.8 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.3 n.a Note: June 15 World Outlook update forecasts have been recalculated using IMF WEO October -15 PPP weights Source: Deutsche Bank Research, cited sources 2017F n.a 3.6 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.6 2.8 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.5 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.6 6.7 EFTA01475973 6.7 6.3 6.0 n.a Global inflation to accelerate after bottoming in 2015 Global inflation is projected to rebound strongly over the next two years after falling to its lowest level since the financial crisis. Both the decline and the anticipated rebound are driven primarily by the sharp decline in global commodity prices over the past 18 months and our expectation that prices will be roughly stable in the coming year. But inflation dynamics are varied across regions. In advanced economies, headline inflation fell about 1 percentage point this year, leaving price increases only a few tenths above deflationary territory. The sharp drop in headline inflation was driven by the 60% decline in oil prices since mid-2014. Meanwhile, inflation in Latin America and EMEA economies rose this year, due mostly to sharp currency depreciations. Weak currencies don't seem to have had the same effect in emerging Asia, though. Figure 5: Global inflation to rebound strongly 10 % yoy Inflation Forecasts 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 World Advanced economies Emerging economies Note: Trend period: 2000-:2017 Source: IMF, Haver Analytics LP, Deutsche Bank Research Page 8 Deutsche Bank AG/London 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 EFTA01475974 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EFTA01475975 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Inflation is expected to rebound sharply in 2016 and rise modestly further in 2017. The initial acceleration is driven primarily by the stabilization of energy price, removing what has been a considerable downward force on broad price indexes. Hence, the gap between headline and core inflation will close in the coming year. In addition, core inflation rates in the G3 economies have already begun to rise gently, and our expectation is that even after the commodity price effect lifts headline inflation, the underlying rising trend in core inflation will continue to push inflation higher. Advanced economy inflation is projected to rise by 1 percentage point next year and 0.6 percentage points in 2017. On the other hand, inflation in emerging market economies — less influenced in most cases by energy prices -- is expected to rise modestly next year and remain stable in 2017. Upside risks to inflation from food prices are a concern-this year has seen the most pronounced El Nino cycle on record and weather patterns may be equally disruptive next year. As yet, however, food prices globally are not showing any upward momentum. Figure 7: Global inflation revised up led by emerging market economies Inflation forecast & revision % yoy G7 US Japan Euro area Asia (ex-Japan) China India EEMEA Russia Latin America Brazil Advanced economies EM economies Global Forecast level Current 1.5 1.9 0.7 0.9 2.9 1.8 5.4 8.7 15.6 15.2 EFTA01475976 9.0 0.3 5.6 3.4 6.7 9.2 18.8 8.5 1.4 5.9 4.0 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.6 2.9 1.8 5.0 5.9 7.1 19.4 6.2 2.0 5.7 4.2 Forecast change since June 15 WO Update 2015F 2016F 2017F 2015F 2016F 2017F 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 2.4 1.4 4.9 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.4 2.2 0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.6 EFTA01475977 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.9 -0.3 1.0 2.2 6.2 2.6 -0.5 0.7 0.2 Note: June 15 World Outlook update forecasts have been recalculated using IMF WEO October -15 PPP weights Source: Deutsche Bank Research Our inflation forecasts have undergone significant revisions since the June update. Global inflation expectations have been revised up by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points for 2015 and 2016. The impetus for this revision is higher inflation in emerging market economies resulting from greater-than-expected currency depreciation. This is most pronounced in Latin America, where forecast inflation has been revised up by 2.2 and 6.2 percentage points for 2015 and 2016, respectively. Inflation has been marked down broadly across advanced economies and emerging Asia, with forecasts falling by a few tenths for 2015 and by about one-half of a percentage point for next year. n.a -0.3 0.2 -0.1 n.a -1.2 -0.5 n.a 0.3 n.a 1.2 n.a n.a n.a Figure 6: G3 core inflation %yoy US (PCE) -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 EFTA01475978 3.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Note: Japan "core core" inflation, net of the consumption tax increase. Source: CEIC, Deutsche Bank Research Euro area Japan Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 9 EFTA01475979 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Regional detail US outlook US GDP growth is projected to have slowed to less than 2% in the second half of 2015, and we see it picking up slightly to just over 2% during 2016 and 2017. The economy should be driven predominantly by a healthy expansion of consumer spending, plus some outsized gains in residential investment as the housing market continues to tighten. Business investment growth should remain relatively subdued, held back by, among other factors, a strengthening dollar, election-year uncertainties, subdued corporate earnings growth, and in the longer term, tightening financial conditions. Output growth should be restrained substantially in the year ahead by the lagged depressing effects on net exports of past substantial appreciation of the dollar and some further increases to come. That restraint should ease over time, but domestic demand growth should slow as the Fed's normalization of monetary policy progresses. And that slowing should help keep the labor market from overshooting too much The modest pace of GDP growth that we are projecting should be more than enough to effect ongoing tightening of the US labor market. With labor productivity growth and labor force growth both running at historically depressed rates, we estimate that potential GDP growth has slowed to around 1% currently, and is likely to rise only gradually as productivity and labor force growth pick up over the period ahead. We see the unemployment rate falling into the mid-4% area over the next couple years, putting it noticeably below NAIRU, but not by enough to effect more than a gradual pickup in wage and price inflation. We see core PCE inflation returning to near 2% two years hence, roughly in line with FOMC projections. However, our forecast for growth is a bit below consensus and the FOMC median projection, and we see the dollar rising more than the Fed is likely to have assumed. On a trade-weighted basis, we expect the dollar to rise nearly 5% next year. While significant, this appreciation is a notable deceleration from the 20% rise in the trade- weighted dollar since mid-2014. Accordingly, we expect the Fed to raise rates slightly less rapidly than anticipated in the most recent (September) FOMC median projection (a projection that could be revised down somewhat for the December FOMC meeting). At the same time, our projection for 100 bps of Fed rate hikes by the end of 2016 (including a 25 bp liftoff this month) and another 100 bps during 2017 is noticeably more than the market has been pricing. We also expect the Fed to taper the reinvestment of its maturing asset holdings and allow its balance sheet to begin to run off naturally after mid-2016. Outlook for Europe We expect euro area GDP growth to be broadly unchanged at 1.6% in 2016 and to slow in 2017. This reflects the shifting intensity of countervailing EFTA01475980 headwinds and tailwinds. Global growth should rise, but less than we previously thought. Lower oil prices were a source of strong stimulus in 2015 and allowed private consumption to compensate for weaker net trade. However, we expect oil prices to be flat in 2016 and to rise about 10% in 2017 as supply constraints bite. Dual monetary and fiscal easing should help protect euro area economic growth from the fading oil stimulus in 2016. With both monetary and fiscal policy likely to tighten modestly in 2017, economic growth will be more exposed to the squeeze from higher oil prices. The net result is that we expect the average annualised rate of GDP growth to slow from 1.7% in 2016 to 1.4% in 2017. The euro exchange rate is expected to fall about 5% in trade weighted terms in 2016, with EURUSD breaching parity. A partial normalisation of euro area rate markets is likely to cause some tightening of financial conditions later in the Page 10 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01475981 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity year. With productivity and potential growth running low, the output gap should gradually narrow even with these modest rates of GDP growth, and past euro depreciation starting to become more visible in inflation. Core inflation should be close to historical norms in H2 2016. By end 2016, the ECB's medium-term headline inflation projections should be at levels consistent with tapering starting to be discussed at the ECB and implemented in 2017; we see the first ECB policy rate hike only at the end of 2018. The risk is that oil prices continue to decline in the near term and weigh on headline inflation. If this weakens medium-term inflation expectations, the late-2016 tapering risk should dissipate and the pressure for further ECB easing will grow. The refugee crisis will remain a theme in Europe and fear of a repeat of the Paris terror attacks will linger. While refugee and security-related public spending is likely to lead to some relaxation in the fiscal stance in the year ahead, we expect compliance with Europe's fiscal rules to improve into 2017. We expect euro area political uncertainty to rise as 2017 approaches. The refugee crisis has created frictions within and between countries, but the common threat to security highlighted by the attacks in Paris may unify Europe and reduce the risk of local political events — including Greek debt relief negotiations, Portugal's minority government, Catalonia's independence bid and the UK's EU negotiations — from undermining area-wide stability in 2016. In our view, the unity won't last into 2017. The closer we get to the Dutch, French and German elections in 2017 — Italy may bring forward its election into 2017 too — the more political tensions are likely to build and impose a risk premium on the recovery. There is little basis to expect a strong non-cyclical euro area recovery either. France may make some further modest progress on structural reforms in early 2016, but reform progress across the zone over the next couple of years is likely to remain slow. UK economic growth appears set to slow over the next couple of years — but despite fiscal austerity, sterling currency strength and maybe some EU referendum-related uncertainty, GDP growth should be no worse than trend. We expect the robust labour market to keep private consumption growth well supported. Inflation base effects should push inflation up to close to the lower bound of the Bank of England's inflation target range before mid-year. We continue to expect the Bank of England to raise policy rates for the first time in this cycle in May. The EU referendum could be held as soon as late next year. According to opinion polls, the outcome looks closer than the last referendum in 1975 when 66% voted to remain in the EU. Outlook for Japan After what we view as a soft patch over the summer, due in part to unseasonable weather but also to a temporary pullback in capital investment, EFTA01475982 we see the economy bouncing back strongly in Q4 and then returning to its underlying 1-1.5% trend during 2016. For an economy that has been repeatedly buffeted by shocks — some self-inflicted, most genuinely exogenous — we are conscious of the difficulty of making firm forecasts. But we do see Japan's economy as following an underlying growth rate well above its longrun potential and are therefore likely to continue to see the labour market tightening from what is already the lowest unemployment rate in 20 years. Household income growth, reflecting the combination of rising wage growth and employment, should remain at about 2-2.5%, providing the main driver of growth for the economy. While headline inflation should rise through 2016 as the base effect on past oil price declines drops out of the year-on-year comparison, we don't see it rising beyond 1% until 2017. "Core core" inflation, excluding food and energy prices, Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 11 EFTA01475983 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity has risen sharply in recent months and we expect this to continue for a few more months, rising to above 1% in the first half of 2016. But with the lagged effects of yen depreciation wearing off, we expect inflation to stabilize at about 1% rather than moving higher. This may induce the BoJ eventually to add to its asset purchases, but our base case is that it would choose to continue the current level of investments for longer rather than increase the scale of purchases. In any event, the risks likely remain tilted in the direction of any negative shock to growth or inflation expectations leading to an augmentation of QE. China and other emerging markets The coming year will likely remain challenging for emerging markets as falling commodity prices and weak global trade growth are likely to extend the recent experience with budgetary and balance-of-payments pressures and slow growth in many EM economies. We expect growth in China to slow further in the coming year to 6.7% from 7.0% in 2015 and 7.4% in 2014, offering little respite for commodity producers. This will probably force continued output cuts to close the supply-demand gap for resources. We think that by the end of 2016, this will have been achieved in the oil market, thanks to production cuts, especially in the US; but in most other commodity markets, balance should be restored only in 2017. But the China forecast offers some hope in that the source of demand growth could shift at the margin back towards more commodity-intensive infrastructure and property investment. The 2017 forecast offers more encouragement for commodity exporters in the form of an end to the China slowdown — growth is expected to be maintained at 6.7% — perhaps allowing for the return to a positive cycle in commodity prices once supply cuts have been effected in 2016. In the near term, we think maintaining the gentle downward glide path to growth in China will require more fiscal and monetary stimulus — we expect two more rate cuts, for example — but the recovery in the property market could remove some of the downward pressure on Chinese growth. The rate at which property prices are rising — and the stabilization of prices in more and more smaller cities — combined with the rise in land sales revenues could be taken as indicators that property investment could be heading for a familiar boom following the 2014 'bust'. Our forecast is for a more restrained rebound, however, as a large stock of unsold properties and slowing of rural-to-urban migration serve to limit developers' enthusiasm to reinvest. In India, we expect only a very modest pickup in activity and only late in our forecast horizon. Banks and corporates will have to resolve a growing stock of problem assets and stalled projects, a task that we don't expect will be EFTA01475984 completed quickly. The growth outlook, therefore, has a very gradual rise over the next two years. We are optimistic that the government's reform plans can, in the medium term, put India on a path towards much higher growth rates, but much hard work remains to be done in the meantime, including the implementation of tax, labour, land acquisition and investment reforms. For 2016, growth forecasts for Brazil and Russia offer only the prospect of a slowing pace of decline and eventual stabilization in activity, with growth expected to return in 2017. Given the size of these economies, this should be enough to boost regional growth forecasts. But a slower pace of recession is hardly cause for celebration. More encouragement comes in Argentina's likely adoption of more positive economic policies. The path to restoring investor confidence and market access will not be easy — likely involving a devaluation of the official exchange rate and a significant decline in government spending — but we have a fundamentally positive outlook for the Argentine economy at last, albeit again one that offers more growth potential in 2017 than in 2016. Page 12 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01475985 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity For most other emerging markets, a positive outlook requires an end to commodity price declines and also an end to the puzzling weakness in exports. In Figure 8, we plot the growth in real exports of goods and services in the major EM economies by region against US and EU combined GDP growth. Aside from weighting EM countries by the size of their exports rather than GDP, we have made one other notable change, adjusting Chinese exports for alleged over-invoicing in early 2013. This latter modification serves to highlight that the decoupling of Asian exports from US and EU GDP growth is really a very recent phenomenon, emerging only in the last year. Growth in Emerging Europe exports has similarly decoupled from EU growth over the past year. Export growth in Latin America has been weak but reasonably closely aligned with US growth. Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain the loss of export vitality, some of which we find unconvincing. "Onshoring" of manufacturing back to the US seems inconsistent with the weakness in US manufacturing output — particularly in information and communications technology, which is the mainstay of Asian exports to the US. Manufacturing output growth in the EU has followed a similar pattern to imports, implying again that domestic production doesn't seem to be rising at the expense of imports. Indeed, import penetration into the US and European Union is not falling. While China has seen a loss of competitiveness in labour-intensive manufacturing, that has more than been offset by increasingly competitive higher-value industries. China now exports automobiles, high-speed trains and, soon, passenger jets; its share of global manufactured goods exports is rising today at about the same pace it was in the pre-crisis years. With only about a year's data, it is hard to arrive at a convincing explanation, but we think the following factors are important. First, slower growth in Chinese demand for commodity imports may have depressed overall export volumes among the commodity exporters. Second, those sectors that saw the greatest outward migration in production from advanced to emerging economies are now much more mature. Of particular importance, consumer electronics devices — mobile phones, laptops and tablets — are now ubiquitous in advanced economies and most emerging markets too. There simply doesn't need to be the growth in sales of such products since for most consumers the need simply is to replace worn-out devices. Third, as China moves up the value chain, production networks may be shrinking. As Chinese suppliers become more proficient, it may require fewer imports of intermediate goods to produce exports. And as multinationals in China focus more on serving the domestic market — now growing in USD terms as fast as the US market — they may be replacing more expensive imported components with locally sourced 'good enough' parts. Finally, the sharp depreciation of the euro in 2014 must surely have played a role, as the weak euro has depressed the growth of imports EFTA01475986 while stimulating exports in Europe. Some of these influences depressing EM exports may become less of a constraint in the year ahead. The much slower pace of growth in the IT sector noted above likely reflects a temporary inventory depletion phase, which we think could end in the coming months with both production and imports rebounding. Even a mature sector like IT is likely still to see some growth as long as the broader economy is growing. The euro is expected to depreciate, but less than it did in 2014. As the competitive advantage of China shifts to higher-value goods, carrying the rest of Asia with it even if to a lesser degree than ten years ago, it is reasonable to expect export volume growth to recover. This matters for the large number of small open economies in the EM universe, for which export growth has a highly significant influence on economic activity. Even the modest recovery in export growth that we forecast for 2016 and 2017 will be enough, we think, to take GDP growth somewhat higher in most emerging economies. Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 13 Figure 8: EM exports of goods and services vs. G2 GDP Asia (lhs) EMEA (lhs) 10 15 20 25 30 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Note: Regional data weighted by 2014 nominal USD goods and services exports. Source: Haver Analytics LP, Deutsche Bank Research %yoy Latam (lhs) US&EU GDP (rhs) %yoy -6 -4 EFTA01475987 -2 0 2 4 6 8 EFTA01475988 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Given the challenges facing many EM economies, the coming year will likely see a marked divergence in monetary policy across the regions. In Latin America, despite a reasonably subdued growth backdrop, we expect central banks to raise interest rates in most countries and by almost as much as the Fed. In EMEA, we see rates going up in South Africa and Turkey and later in the year in Israel, but continuing to come down in Russia. In Asia, in sharp contrast to past Fed cycles, we expect only the Philippines will see rate hikes in 2016. Instead, we expect central banks in China, India, Indonesia and Taiwan to cut rates. By implication, interest rate differentials in Asia should move in favour of the US dollar, implying a risk of continued weakness in Asian currencies against the dollar. We expect most emerging market currencies to outperform the euro, though. Of particular note, we expect only about a 4.5% depreciation of the RMB against the USD, mostly late in the year as the PBOC cuts rates. The possibility that policymakers in China decide to move the exchange rate in a larger, discrete, devaluation is probably the greatest risk to the emerging markets currency outlook as that would likely trigger similar moves in other EM currencies. Partly for that reason — that it wouldn't get much of a competitive advantage from a devaluation — we don't expect China to devalue the RMB. Summary of strategy views on the markets Rates: Peak policy divergence As the divergence between US and European monetary policy may have peaked, we believe that 2016 should see a partial convergence of US and European bond yields. Our end-year forecasts see the 10-year Bund around 1.1% and 10-year US Treasury at 2.5% (although our macro forecast—with the Fed on a slow but steady uptrend — may be consistent with a somewhat higher yield by end 2016). In Europe, absent an external shock, the market is likely to focus in the second half of the year on the prospects of the ECB discussing (but not implementing) a tapering-off of asset purchases, while the front end should remain anchored. This should lead to steeper curves. In the US, the terminal rate priced by the market is arguably too low, and we see scope for the market to re-price this on the back of some improvement in historically low productivity and a reduction in growth headwinds that have been suppressing the neutral rate. However, the pace of hikes next year looks closer to fair given the lagged impact of the US dollar on core PCE inflation, which should limit the scope of hikes in 2016. Credit: US credit feels the pressure of high commodity exposure US credit markets made a U-turn midway through 2015, as doubts began to surface with respect to issuer fundamentals and exposure to commodities and EM. Though current spread levels are more attractive than those prevailing just a few months ago — both HY and IG are at 3- to 4-year wides — we expect the EFTA01475989 push-and-pull to continue between those seeking more yield and those seeing signs of a cycle turn. However, we expect only a moderate rise in ex-energy defaults and continued pressure on HY spreads. Higher vulnerability of HY therefore makes IG credit a more attractive alternative, especially in light of current levels. We recommend avoiding sectors exposed to the energy sector's capital expenditure declines, such as capital goods. Two to three hikes by the Fed should not be problematic for credit. Fundamentals are better for European credit: debt accumulation has been nowhere near as aggressive as in the US market, and European credit has far less exposure to the energy and materials sectors. Overall, Europe is some way behind the US in terms of a deteriorating credit cycle, so we believe European credit can continue to outperform even if US credit widens further. Page 14 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01475990 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity US equity strategy: Still-low Treasury yields despite Fed hikes to boost S&P PE Our S&P 500 targets are 2100 for 2015 end and 2250 for 2016 end, representing 5-10% upside. Health Care and Tech — which represent more than one-third of the S&P 500 — are why we are reasonably bullish for 2016, while Energy and Industrials remain a significant concern. Most of the rest of the market, both the S&P and the Russell 2000, seems fully valued except a few big Banks, Utilities, Airlines, and some of our specific stock picks. We do not believe that a recession looms or that S&P profits will fall again in 2016. We also do not expect the S&P will suffer a bear market or a sharp correction. But there are a number of key risks for equities: any further dollar gains must be slow, wage gains must be accompanied by better productivity, and the rise in yields as the Fed hikes must be gradual and contained. European equity strategy: 7% upside in 2016E but beware of the risk of a nearterm correction We see around 7% upside for the European equity market by end 2016, with a target of 410 for the Stoxx 600. European equities should benefit from stronger EPS growth, low real bond yields, FX support from a further decline in the euro and relatively attractive valuations. Among sectors, we like European banks, where investor pessimism persists despite relative return on equity rising to a seven-year high, and cyclicals, especially tech and auto. We are more cautious on the outlook for the resource sectors and consumer staples, which are exposed to a further decline in commodity prices and an additional drop in emerging market exchange rates and rise in US bond yields. There is a risk of a 5-10% correction in the near term if an adverse reaction to Fed hikes leads to a substantial tightening in global financial conditions. FX: Plenty of run left in the USD upswing Following the historical 20% surge in the US dollar over the past year and a half (on a trade-weighted basis), we see the dollar upswing extending for at least another two years, though at a more modest pace. There are several unique circumstances with the current dollar upcycle, including that G10 central banks are not expected to follow the Fed's tightening impulse this time around. How 2016 shapes up will be heavily influenced by whether the main macro driver is the Fed or China. If it is the Fed, US dollar gains are likely to be slow and broad-based. Conversely, if the RMB again becomes a source of instability, US dollar gains should be heavily concentrated in commodity and EFTA01475991 EM currencies. Our end-2016 forecasts are largely unchanged: EUR/USD at 0.90, USD/JPY at 128, and GBP/USD at 1.27. Commodities: Supply adjustment is well underway for oil, not so for the metals We expect OPEC will have engineered one of the sharpest historical declines in US production by next year. While we expect that the first half of 2016 will remain oversupplied and risks remain to the downside during this period, the steady contraction of US supply along with trend rates of demand growth should lead to a more normalised market balance in 2017. However, the current recovery period for oil will likely be one of the slowest and most extended on record. We remain bearish on the outlook for gold as the Fed enters a tightening cycle and the US dollar appreciates further. Several factors contribute to a difficult outlook for industrial metals: the barriers to exit for many industrial metals are high, the industry still has not adjusted to structurally lower Chinese demand growth, and long gestation projects continue to add supply to the market. While supply cuts should gather momentum in 2016, we expect price stabilisation only in 2017 when markets should start to look more balanced. Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 15 EFTA01475992 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Asset allocation: 2016 Outlook: The Case for normalization Our global asset allocation strategists discuss several key themes and catalysts for the year ahead: First, rate normalization cycles have always been associated with significant price losses on 10-year Treasury securities. Second, although credit spreads tend to tighten with higher rates, the over- allocation to credit — especially high grade — tends to keep credit vulnerable to rate hikes. Third, the equity risk premium is at a 70-year high and should fall as rates rise, providing some upside to equities. Fourth, although oil should continue to be pressured by a rising dollar, it now looks close to fair value. Fifth, rising EM growth and more favorable positioning should support EM once US rates reprice the Fed. As a result, our asset allocation is overweight equities in the US and Japan but neutral European equities and underweight EM; underweight bonds, cash and commodities; and long the dollar. Geopolitics: The EU's geopolitical crisis eclipses its economic crisis Our geopolitical strategist considers the implications of the accelerating external and internal geopolitical threats to the EU. The migration crisis, the war in Syria, and tensions with Russia related to its association with the Ukraine are likely to push the economic disputes of the euro crisis to the back burner and bring the geopolitical dimension — the original motivation for European unity — back to the forefront. The still-incomplete Union now has to develop policy through a security lens, as bringing stability to its surroundings is vital to the stability of the EU. Risks to the Outlook: Downside risks IIFed exit tantrum. We have assumed that the market's reaction to Fed normalization will be relatively muted, partly because we assume the Fed will strive, initially at least, to ease its way gradually into the exit process Given the current gap between Fed expectations and market expectations, the reaction to the exit path we forecast, as well as to the tapering of reinvestment, could be substantially more negative than we envision. Tenyear yields could spike above the nearly 3% peak level reached during the taper tantrum in 2013. This shock could spill over into a sharp drop in risk asset values, with negative implications for consumer and business spending domestically, as well as major declines in emerging market and ther risk assets abroad. i Inflation surge. The negative scenario we have just described would be EFTA01475993 intensified substantially if the Fed proves to be significantly behind the curve and inflation pressures pick up more rapidly than expected, forcing the Fed to tighten policy a good deal more aggressively than now envisioned. This could easily happen if labor force participation continues to trend down, GDP growth picks up more in line with consensus expectations, and productivity growth remains depressed. Under these circumstances, unemployment could easily move below 4% over the year ahead, and wage inflation, which is already showing signs of stirring upward, could surge enough to influence longer-term inflation expectations and push up core price inflation substantially more than currently expected or desired. IIEuropean politics: Our baseline expectation is that the common threat to security highlighted by the recent terror attacks in Paris unifies Europe at least temporarily. This should prevent various national idiosyncratic events from undermining area-wide stability. The risk is that the differences of opinion between countries on divisive themes like the refugee crisis spill over into other policy areas, creating less beneficial outcomes to situations such as Greek debt relief talks, the minority government in Portugal, fiscal Page 16 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01475994 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity flexibility, the UK's EU membership negotiations, etc. We expect the fiscal crisis early warning indicators based on macro fundamentals to remain low and improve very modestly in 2016. The risk in the disunity scenario is that idiosyncratic national political risks materialise and amplify market concerns. IIManaging rebalancing in China: We continue to see downside risks in China, especially from the external vantage. While the government may be committed to keeping growth from falling below 6.5%, the need to restructure commodity-intensive heavy industrial sectors, coupled with the weak property investment outlook, offers little support to commodity exporters who will have to continue to make cuts of their own. We see this challenge as being fraught with downside risks in China, as restructuring will inevitably lead to job losses, which we struggle to see being offset by hiring in other sectors. A rise in unemployment and consequent slowing of consumption growth could weaken neighbouring economies' exports to China. pside risks I Productivity rebound: We have assumed that business fixed investment remains subdued, helping to keep labor productivity growth depressed. But given recent technological advances, it might take only a relatively moderate increase in capital spending to reap a substantial rebound in productivity growth. Incentives to raise productivity will increase as the labor market continues to tighten, so our pessimism about investment growth may not be so well founded. In any event, a relatively quick return of the growth in US labor productivity for overall GDP from its near-zero level in recent years to a historically more normal level of 1.5-2% would mean the economy could grow at 2%-plus without tightening the labor market further, and allowing the Fed to normalize rates at an even slower than we are projecting. This would be a plus for the US and global economy. IIUpside surprise to US growth: Our substantial markdown to US growth expectations has lowered the bar for an upside surprise next year. And there are reasons to view the risks to this outlook as skewed to the upside: fiscal headwinds have faded and there is potential for a stronger fiscal boost next year; the peak response of business investment to the sharp drop in oil prices is likely behind us; and the peak drag of the dollar on net exports should dissipate beyond mid-year. With the consumer expected to continue to show solid gains, especially as wages rise, and with housing market activity still well below normalized levels, we could see our first upward revision to US growth — relative to the start of the year — since the financial crisis. Peter Hooper, (1) 212 250 7352 Matthew Luzzetti, (44) 20 754 73288 Michael Spencer, (852) 2203 8303 EFTA01475995 Mark Wall, (44) 20 754 52087 Torsten Slok, (1) 212 250 2155 Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 17 EFTA01475996 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity US: Dollar drag IIOn the back of weak manufacturing and international trade data, secondhalf 2015 real GDP growth is poised to rise by less than 2% as currentquarter output is projected to increase just 1.5%. This would result in 2015 growth of 2.0% (04/Q4), slightly below the 2.2% average annualized gain in economic output since the economy exited recession more than six years ago. More importantly, we expect 2016 real GDP growth to come in at only 2.2% (Q4/Q4), down 50 basis points from our previous estimate. This is due to a reassessment of the negative effects of the rising dollar and the possibility of further appreciation yet to come. IINevertheless, with real potential GDP growth only around 1% due to slowing productivity growth, even a trend-like 2% GDP growth rate would likely be enough to put further downward pressure on the unemployment rate. Consequently, this should keep the Fed on track to raise interest rates, albeit at a very modest pace, as policymakers gain confidence that a tightening labor market will engender faster wage gains and a cyclical firming of inflation toward their 2% long-term goal. IIThe US factory sector is bearing the brunt of depressed global demand. The manufacturing ISM survey is in contraction territory, and the industrial production index is down from its cyclical peak in December 2014. Given that changes in the trade-weighted dollar tend to affect net exports with a substantial lag, the economy has yet to experience the full impact of the appreciating dollar. If the trade-weighted dollar remains at its current level or appreciates further, net exports could pose a more significant drag on US economic activity. IIBased on the appreciation to date, we estimate the rise in the dollar is worth roughly 60 basis points of monetary tightening. The fact that the currency is doing some of the Fed's work for it is one reason why we expect the trajectory of interest rates to be mildly shallower than that implied by the FOMC's central-tendency forecasts. The strong dollar will also weigh on import prices, and hence consumer goods inflation. To be sure, there is a risk that the US dollar will rise substantially further because the Fed is the only major central bank that is beginning to remove monetary accommodation. Other central banks, notably the ECB, are further easing monetary policy. Furthermore, the US factory sector is being hamstrung by a mini-inventory cycle that is also depressing output. This destocking will likely end next quarter. In the interim, the consumer looks set to continue to do the heavy lifting with respect to growth, but we expect spending to modestly slow over the course of next year because of the waning impact of the energy tax cut, a substantial portion of which appears to have been saved. EFTA01475997 II Additionally, we see only modest scope for non-residential investment to fill the void, as the uncertainty around global growth prospects and the outcome of the US Presidential Election may keep companies in a waitand-see mode with respect to capital spending plans. While the drag from energy-related capital spending should dissipate in the coming quarters, it is not likely that we will see a meaningful boost to output growth from non-residential investment over the next several quarters. Page 18 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01475998 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Figure 1: Macro-economic activity & inflation forecasts: US Economic activity 2015 (% qoq, saar) GDP Private consumption Investment (inc. inventories) Gov't consumption Exports Imports Contribution (pp): Stocks Net trade Industrial production Unemployment rate, % Prices & wages (% yoy) CPI Core CPI Producer prices Compensation per empl. Productivity Source: National authorities, Deutsche Bank Research Q1 0.6 1.7 8.6 -0.1 -6.0 7.1 0.9 -1.9 n.a 5.6 -0.1 1.7 -3.3 1.8 0.6 Q2 3.9 3.6 5.0 2.6 5.1 3.0 0.0 0.2 n.a 5.4 0.0 EFTA01475999 1.8 -3.2 2.4 0.8 3.0 -0.3 1.7 0.9 2.1 -0.6 -0.2 n.a 5.2 0.1 1.8 -3.2 2.4 0.4 1.5 2.7 2.0 2.7 -1.3 1.4 -3.0 0.0 -1.2 -0.4 n.a 5.0 0.9 2.0 -1.2 2.6 1.3 6.4 1.6 -7.0 2.0 0.0 -1.2 n.a 4.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 3.3 2.0 2016 2.2 2.7 EFTA01476000 6.1 1.6 -5.0 2.0 0.0 -1.0 n.a 4.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 4.0 1.4 2.1 2.3 6.3 1.6 -3.0 3.0 0.0 -0.9 n.a 4.7 2.0 2.0 2.5 4.4 1.3 2.4 2.2 6.2 1.6 0.0 3.0 0.0 -0.5 n.a 4.6 2.0 2.1 2.5 4.5 1.3 2015F 2016F 2017F Q3 Q4F 01F Q2F Q3F Q4F % yoy % yoy % yoy 2.1 2.4 3.1 5.0 0.8 1.1 EFTA01476001 5.0 0.1 -0.6 0.0 5.3 0.2 1.8 -2.7 2.3 0.8 2.1 2.7 3.9 1.6 -3.3 1.9 -0.3 -0.7 3.0 4.8 1.9 2.0 2.3 4.1 1.5 2.1 2.1 4.5 1.6 0.9 3.6 0.0 -0.5 3.0 4.4 2.3 2.2 3.2 4.5 1.3 The Fed goes it alone. As US monetary policy diverges from that of its major trading partners in 2016, the dollar should continue to appreciate. As a result, we expect net exports to continue to drag meaningfully on economic activity. At the same time, the strong dollar will weigh further on import prices, likely suppressing consumer goods inflation through 2017. These projections are corroborated by simulations of the Federal Reserve Board's FRB/US macroeconomic model. Therefore, we have cut our 2016 real GDP growth forecast (Q4/04) to 2.2% from 2.7%. Additionally, we have lowered our 2016 core PCE inflation forecast (Q4/Q4) by two-tenths to 1.7%. For 2017, our EFTA01476002 growth and core PCE inflation forecasts are similarly modest at 1.9% and 2 1%, respectively. Moreover, the effect of the appreciating dollar on growth and inflation should serve as a headwind to rate hikes. For this reason we expect only a cumulative 100 basis points (bps) of interest rate increases through yearend 2016, and 200 bps of hikes through 2017. These forecasts are slightly more conservative than the FOMC's most recent median projections, which call for policy rate increases of 125 bps and 250 bps through 2016 and 2017, respectively. The Greenback goes gangbusters. Since July 2014, the inflation-adjusted broad trade-weighted dollar has appreciated 16%, among the largest moves on record. The dollar has gone from strength to strength because the US economy is arguably the healthiest of the major industrialized economies, and the Fed has consistently signaled its intention to raise interest rates this year. Other central banks such as the BOJ and the ECB are at very different stages of the business cycle and are pursuing expansionary monetary policies to lift inflation. What does FRB/US say? To gauge the implications of the strengthening dollar for monetary policy, we simulated a one-time, 16% shock to the real tradeweighted dollar in the Fed's macroeconomic model of the US economy, often referred to as FRB/US. All else being equal, the simulated shock causes the real output gap to widen by nearly -50 bps by yearend 2016 and more than -70 bps by yearend 2017. Even absent any additional shocks, the dollar drag will remain substantial for about four years according to the FRB/US model. With the dollar likely to remain firm, if not appreciate a bit further, it is possible that the dollar drag might persist even longer than the FRB/US model presently projects. Deutsche Bank AG/London Figure 2: The real trade-weighted dollar has appreciated sharply Index 100 110 120 130 80 90 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: FRB, Haver Analytics LP, Deutsche Bank Research Real broad trade-weighted USD index Figure 3: According to the FRB/US model, dollar appreciation would result in a large drag on output Response of output gap bps 10 EFTA01476003 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Quarters after shock Source: FRB, Deutsche Bank Research Page 19 EFTA01476004 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity The impact of the trade-weighted dollar on inflation is much more benign than the impact on growth. According to our FRB/US simulations, the recent dollar appreciation would subtract between one- and two-tenths from core PCE inflation over the next couple of years. This may not seem like much, but core inflation has been running significantly below the Fed's 2% target for the past three years. For inflation to rise toward that level, either dollar strength will have to reverse, or services prices will have to rise further, thereby offsetting the effect of the former on goods prices. Given our expectation of a further significant decline in the unemployment rate, services prices, which are dominated by the cost of labor and housing rents, should increase further. Since services account for roughly two-thirds of the core PCE deflator and goods the remaining one-third, acceleration in services prices could offset the deflationary impact of the strong dollar on goods prices. Our forecast assumes that services inflation will continue to accelerate, thus allowing policymakers to proceed with interest rate hikes, but at a very gradual pace relative to prior monetary tightening cycles. Inflation is expected to only gradually return to its 2% target over the next couple of years. The estimates of the FRB/US model are broadly consistent with our estimates of the impact of the appreciation of the dollar on the contribution of net exports in the GDP accounts. 1 Figure 4: According to the FRB/US model, dollar appreciation would result in a modest drag on inflation Response of core inflation -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 bps 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 EFTA01476005 Quarters after shock Source: FRB, Deutsche Bank Research Traditionally, changes in the trade-weighted dollar tend to impact net exports with a lag of approximately two years. When the dollar strengthens, net exports tend to weaken as US export prices become less competitive in the global marketplace and imported goods become relatively cheaper. In the process, domestic production and employment could suffer. The manufacturing sector is most acutely impacted by the strength of the dollar. However, this weakness is being exacerbated by the excessive inventory building in the first three quarters of the year, which has left inventories elevated relative to demand. Hence, de-stocking is likely contributing to the slowdown in manufacturing output as well. While the inventory unwind should prove temporary, the lagged impact from the dollar will likely prevent a meaningful recovery in the manufacturing sector, which is in contraction territory. It is noteworthy that the manufacturing ISM is highly correlated with real GDP growth, even though the manufacturing sector accounts for only 12% of total economic output. Watching the dot plot. The appreciation of the dollar is a key reason why the Fed trimmed its growth and inflation forecasts this year. A stronger dollar has the same effect on growth and inflation as monetary tightening. Therefore, dollar strength will likely continue to be a meaningful headwind to rate hikes in 2016 and 2017, and possibly beyond. The Figure 8 below shows the FOMC's "dot plot" versus our forecasts and the latest futures market pricing. While the fixed income market is nearly fully pricing a December rate hike, financial market participants expect a much shallower trajectory for the fed funds rate than what the Fed is currently projecting. If the Fed does not reduce its longerterm forecasts of the fed funds rate, the ongoing divergence between what investors are expecting and the Fed is predicting could cause financial market turbulence. Our own estimates of the path of interest rates are between those of the financial markets and monetary policymakers. Figure 5: The expected drag from net exports due to dollar appreciation is meaningful % yoy 10 15 -15 -10 -5 0 5 Real broad trade weighted USD (lhs) Contribution of net exports in real GDP (rhs) EFTA01476006 %, inverted axis 2015 estimates Correlation = 0.54 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: FRB, BEA, Haver Analytics LP, Deutsche Bank Research -2 -1 0 1 2 Figure 6: The manufacturing ISM and the new export orders series are both in contraction territory ISM manufacturing 30.0 37.5 45.0 52.5 60.0 67.5 PMI composite index Index New export orders Correlation = 0.62 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: ISM, Haver Analytics LP, Deutsche Bank Research 2015 1 Fed Vice Chair Fischer cited similar effects in a Jackson Hole speech earlier this year. Page 20 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476007 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity The "energy tax cut" was saved. Our forecasts are predicated on the continuation of decent consumption growth, because there is little evidence pointing to a sustained increase in business fixed investment. Conceivably, the latter could be boosted if oil prices rebound, thereby providing a lift to energyrelated capital expenditures. However, rising energy prices could dampen consumer spending as real incomes would compress. Essentially, there is asymmetry in consumer behavior, as falling energy costs do not really lift spending but rising energy costs hurt spending. Note that despite easy money, good job gains, rising net wealth and falling energy costs, the household savings rate has increased 110 bps over the last 12 months to 5.6%.2 As the Fed attempts to push short-term rates higher, it is possible that households will allocate more disposable income to savings. If consumers become more cautious about the economic outlook—the recent declines in consumer confidence bear watching—and spending is reined in, growth will slow to an even more underwhelming pace that leaves the economy vulnerable to an external shock, as there will be even less of a cushion between expansion and contraction. In this case, the Fed will likely pursue a much shallower path of rate hikes than what it is presently assuming. Despite our baseline expectation of just 2% economic growth, the unemployment rate is likely to continue to decline further. Our central forecast assumes the rate will fall to 4.6% by yearend 2016, which is below the Fed's 4.9% median central tendency of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, also referred to as the NAIRU. The unemployment rate is then expected to move even lower in 2017. In turn, this should keep the Fed on a monetary-policy tightening track, as wage costs accelerate in response to tightening labor supply. As always, there are risks to the economic and financial outlook. Arguably, there is greater uncertainty than in the recent past because of the notable divergence in global central bank policy. This makes the economic outlook much more tenuous than in recent years. IIWith respect to downside risks to growth, the recent dollar appreciation could continue to exert a larger-than-anticipated drag on the economy through the exports channel. IIBeyond the possible further strengthening of the dollar, financial market conditions could tighten because of higher interest rates. As the Fed begins the process of interest rate normalization and contemplates the wind-down of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, a sudden spike in rates, similar to the 2013 "taper tantrum", could meaningfully dent housing activity (a current bright spot in the US economy) and engender an even weaker profile of investment spending. EFTA01476008 II With the economy nearly 6.5 years removed from recession, the business cycle is getting old in terms of years. While cycles do not die from old age but rather from imbalances built up in the system, downturns tend to be unexpected. The current cycle is longer than the 2001-07 episode and ranks as the fifth-longest in the last 150 years. It is hard to see the economy expanding for another six-plus years without a recession. In an environment of just 2% GDP growth, the economy is vulnerable to a negative exogenous shock, especially with little countercyclical policy available to the authorities—monetary policy is providing record stimulus and fiscal policy is paralyzed at the moment. Figure 7: Underlying GDP growth has consistently reverted back to a sub-3% trend % yoy -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Real GDP Current business cycle Average of last 9 cycles -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 "0" represents the recession end date Source: BEA, Haver Analytics LP, Deutsche Bank Research Figure 8: Our forecasts for rate hikes are between those of the market and the Fed -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Minutes Sep-15 Sep-15 Median DB Forecast OIS 2015 2016 Source: Deutsche Bank Research 2017 2018 Longer Term Figure 9: The unemployment rate has fallen below the CBO's estimate EFTA01476009 of the NAIRU 10 2 4 6 8 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: BLS, CBO, Haver Analytics LP, Deutsche Bank Research Unemployment rate vs NAIRU Unemployment rate NAIRU 2 "Oil prices and consumer spending: A crude relationship" US Economics Weekly November 20, 2015. Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 21 EFTA01476010 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity IIOf course, there is always the possibility that growth surprises to the upside—although this is less likely because the economy has underperformed policymakers' expectations over the past half-dozen years. In terms of the upside risks to growth, the rapid appreciation of the dollar may already reflect the expected divergence of central bank policies. In turn, the pace of dollar appreciation may slow significantly over the coming quarters, and could even reverse, resulting in less drag on domestic production from the export sector than we currently assume. IIAnother potential upside risk is the labor market. As the job market continues to strengthen and the unemployment rate declines meaningfully further, wage and income growth may rise faster than expected, providing households with even more spending power than we envision. In this scenario, the pace of Fed rate hikes would be significantly faster than that implied by the current median FOMC projections. IIThe final upside risk pertains to inflation. The aforementioned potential for accelerating wage gains combined with a more dramatic recovery in energy prices relative to our projection—possibly due to either a stronger recovery in overseas growth or substantially less oil production—may push headline inflation more quickly back toward the Fed's 2% target. Relative to all of the aforementioned risks, this is perhaps the one that financial markets are least prepared for. Figure 10: External balances & financial forecasts Fiscal balance, % of GDP Trade balance, USD bn Trade balance, % of GDP Current account, USD bn Current account, % of GDP Financial forecasts Official 3M rate USD per EUR JPY per USD USD per GBP 2014 2015F 2016F -2.8 -508 -2.9 -390 -2.2 -2.4 -545 -3.0 -436 -2.4 EFTA01476011 0.13 0.46 1.09 123 1.51 -2.2 -664 -3.6 -531 -2.8 0.875 1.08 0.97 128 1.37 2017F -2.1 -742 -3.8 -593 -3.1 Current Q1-2016 02-2016 Q4-2016 0.625 0.83 1.01 127 1.42 1.125 1.33 0.90 128 1.27 Source: Deutsche Bank Research as of December 07. Joseph A. LaVorgna, (1) 212 250 7329 Brett Ryan, (1) 212 250 6294 Aditya Bhave, (1) 212 250 0584 Page 22 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476012 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Europe: Not a global engine IIWe expect euro area GDP growth to be broadly unchanged at 1.6% in 2016 and to slow in 2017. The global recovery will be less supportive than we previously thought. This year's stimulus from lower oil prices won't be repeated and probably reverses in 2017. Joint monetary and fiscal policy will help compensate in 2016 but not in 2017. II Broad financial conditions should start 2016 easy before tightening into year-end. The output gap will gradually narrow even with these modest rates of GDP growth and past euro depreciation is starting to become more visible in inflation. By end 2016, the ECB's medium-term headline inflation projections should be at levels consistent with a tapering discussion. While refugee and security-related public spending is likely to see fiscal policy relax next year, we expect compliance with fiscal rules to [Improve in 2017. Political uncertainty is likely to rise into 2017. The refugee crisis has created frictions but the common threat to security may unify Europe and reduce the risk of local political events — Greek debt relief negotiations, Portugal's minority government, Catalonia's independence bid, the UK's EU negotiations — from undermined area-wide stability in 2016. The unity won't last into 2017. The closer we get to the Dutch, French and German elections in 2017 —Italy may bring forward its election into 2017 too — the more disharmonious the EU is likely to sound. This will weigh on structural reform, and market may take notice. Despite fiscal austerity, a strong currency and maybe some EU referendum-related uncertainty, UK GDP growth will be no worse than trend in 2016, helped by robust private consumption. Inflation base effects will push inflation back up and we continue to see the Bank of England achieving rates lift-off in May. The referendum vote could be as soon as late next year. According to opinion polls, the outcome looks closer than the last referendum in 1975 when 66% voted to remain in the EU. II The EMEA region is a case of contrasting paths. CEE is characterized by decent growth with little or no inflation and scope to ease further if necessary. The economies elsewhere in EMEA are either experiencing recession or faltering growth but high inflation affords little if any room to provide offsetting policy support. Figure 1: Macro-economic activity & inflation forecasts: 2015F 2016F 2017F GDP (% yoy) EU Euro area Germany France EFTA01476013 Italy Spain UK Sweden Denmark Norway Switzerland 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.7 3.2 2.4 3.2 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.4 2.8 2.5 2.7 1.7 1.4 1.2 Source: National authorities, Deutsche Bank Research 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.0 2.3 2.3 2.5 1.8 2.2 1.6 CPI (% yoy) 2015F 2016F 2017F 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.6 0.0 0.0 EFTA01476014 0.5 2.1 -1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 2.4 -0.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.3 0.3 EEMEA Poland Hungary Czech Republic Romania Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Israel Turkey South Africa GDP (% yoy) 2015F 2016F 2017F 1.0 3.4 2.7 4.5 3.7 1.9 3.5 2.4 2.7 4.0 -3.7 -9.7 1.5 EFTA01476015 2.4 2.9 1.3 -0.7 3.0 2.0 2.8 3.1 1.1 2.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.0 0.5 3.0 3.6 3.5 3.5 1.3 CPI (% yoy) 2015F 2016F 2017F 6.7 1.1 2.1 1.6 8.7 -0.9 0.0 0.4 -0.6 15.6 48.7 6.4 -0.5 7.6 4.6 -0.2 9.2 15.3 14.2 0.8 7.8 6.4 5.9 1.7 2.7 2.0 2.6 7.1 9.3 EFTA01476016 6.5 1.2 7.5 6.5 Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 23 EFTA01476017 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Euro area Modest growth to continue in 2016, slow in 2017 Our forecast for euro area GDP growth in 2016 remains unchanged at 1.6%. A modest pick-up in global growth should help as should the benefits of easier monetary and fiscal policy, including a weaker currency. Compared to our previous forecasts, policy easing has increased in volume. This is balanced by less external support than we were expecting earlier. Political and geopolitical risk may weigh too. The net impact is we see a little less growth in exports, private consumption and investment in 2016, a little more from government consumption but overall GDP growth broadly unchanged at 1.6%. Our expectation is that euro area GDP growth will decelerate in 2017 to 1.5%. Full-year GDP growth masks the true extent of the slowdown: average annualized rates of growth should slow from 1.7% in 2016 to 1.4% in 2017. Global growth should accelerate into 2017, but we expect headwinds from rising oil prices, the euro exchange rate, fiscal policy and political uncertainty. Euro area and global GDP growth are normally highly correlated. Disappointing external growth was masked in 2015 by much lower-than-expected oil prices. Global growth is expected to accelerate modestly in 2016, but less than we expected in our last quarterly review. The ratio of global trade to global GDP growth has also deteriorated further. We expect the euro exchange rate to depreciate over the next year thanks to the ECB's monetary policy stance but to be no weaker than we were previously assuming. Lower oil prices helped private consumption compensate for disappointing net trade in 2015. Employment was a little better than expected, compensation growth was weaker, but a lower deflator (lower oil prices) pushed real private consumption growth higher. Real PCE growth will probably slow in 2016. Base effects will push the deflator up while small improvements in employment and wages, a looser fiscal stance and a decline in savings (low interest rates, robust confidence) should limit the deceleration in PCE growth. 2017 will likely be more difficult for private consumption as oil prices are expected to rise 10% in dollar terms and the fiscal rules are expected to bite again. Figure 2: As the lower oil price effect fades in 2016, real compensation growth should deteriorate, dragging on private consumption % yoy -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 EFTA01476018 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2012 2013 PCE deflator Compensation per employee Employment Real total compensation 2014 2015 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Eurostat 2016 2017 Figure 3: Investment spending recovery has flattened EA non-construction investment spending (lhs) German mfg orders from EA ex heavy transport (rhs) 10 15 20 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 % yoy %yoy 10 20 30 correlation, orders lagged 1 qtr: 0.88 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Eurostat, Haver Analytics LP -40 -30 -20 -10 0 EFTA01476019 Figure 4: Macro-economic activity & inflation forecasts: Euro area Economic activity 2015 (% qoq, saar) GDP Private consumption Investment Gov't consumption Exports Imports Contribution (pp): Stocks Net trade Industrial production Unemployment rate, % Prices & wages (% yoy) HICP Core inflation Producer prices Compensation per empl. Productivity Source: National authorities, Deutsche Bank Research Page 24 Q1 2.1 1.9 5.6 2.2 4.2 6.3 0.2 -0.7 0.9 11.2 -0.3 0.7 -2.9 1.4 0.4 1.4 1.5 -1.9 1.0 6.5 3.9 -0.5 1.3 1.9 11.0 0.2 0.8 -2.1 EFTA01476020 1.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.8 0.4 3.2 5.3 0.3 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.8 4.5 4.1 -0.7 2.0 10.8 0.1 0.9 -2.6 1.4 0.7 -0.6 0.3 2.0 10.7 0.3 1.0 -2.5 1.4 0.5 1.7 1.7 3.6 1.2 4.1 5.3 0.2 2016 2015F 2016F 2017F Q2 Q3F Q4F 01F Q2F Q3F Q4F % yoy % yoy % yoy 1.6 1.7 1.4 3.2 1.3 4.1 4.9 0.2 -0.3 EFTA01476021 1.8 10.6 0.9 1.2 -0.6 1.4 0.4 -0.2 1.8 10.4 0.6 1.2 -0.6 1.4 0.5 1.8 1.4 3.7 1.2 4.1 5.1 0.3 -0.3 1.6 10.3 1.0 1.3 0.5 1.5 0.6 1.8 1.4 3.4 0.8 4.1 4.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 10.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.6 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.2 4.7 5.1 EFTA01476022 -0.2 0.1 1.4 11.0 0.1 0.9 -2.5 1.5 0.6 1.6 2.8 1.2 4.2 4.8 -0.1 0.0 2.0 10.4 0.9 1.3 0.2 1.5 0.6 1.5 1.4 2.8 0.6 4.1 4.6 0.3 -0.2 2.3 10.0 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 0.6 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476023 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity The investment spending recovery is losing momentum and turning volatile. Financing conditions should remain supportive — most visible to date in construction spending — but sluggish export demand and geopolitical risks will likely weigh. The euro area labour market has improved more rapidly than the historic Okun coefficient would have implied. This is consistent with weaker post-crisis productivity. Limited prospective returns may be dampening the investment recovery. The Juncker investment plan (European Fund for Strategic Investments or EFSI) will help to lean again this trend. Sovereign QE began in early 2015. The principal transmission channel was a weaker exchange rate but the benefits were squeezed by the 7% appreciation of the euro trade-weighted index between March and September, reversing half the decline that preceded QE. This knocks 0.1% off 2016 GDP growth. There are also domestic transmission channels for QE. Real economy credit conditions have improved to pre-crisis levels. The average interest rate on bank loans to the non-financial corporate sector has fallen 80bp from the peak. Lower interest rates supported asset prices and 2015 saw collateral values play a role in easing lending standards for the first time since 2007. Policy stance to benefit from joint monetary/fiscal policy push Financial conditions remain close to the easiest levels of the cycle even after the miscommunication ahead of the December ECB meeting that left the market disappointed with the outcome. What the ECB announced was nevertheless close to our original expectations. We have not changed the FX assumption underlying our economic forecasts that the euro falls by 5% in trade-weighted terms between 2015 and 2016. The ECB appears confident its unconventional policies are working, for example, through the bank lending channel. There are challenges, however. First, it may prove difficult to accelerate the credit impulse in 2016. The credit impulse is based on the second derivative of bank credit. The credit impulse improved in 2015 from the transition from deleveraging to credit expansion; for some large countries like Spain, there was only a slower pace of deleveraging. Maintaining the credit impulse at the same level in 2016 requires lending to accelerate. With high debt ratios in several countries, this will be challenging, not least in Spain. Second, the ECB is concerned about the high level of NPLs and the slow pace of dealing with them. The flattening in the rate of GDP growth could raise banks' caution. The flattening yield curve will also reduce banks' incentive to lend. The euro area benefited more from a combined monetary/fiscal stimulus in 2015 than had been anticipated with the fiscal stance supportive of economic growth for the first time since 2010. This should continue in 2016. The bottomup aggregation for the fiscal stance looks no stronger than 2015 but is EFTA01476024 probably an underestimate (e.g., higher refugee and security-related public spending). We do not believe the joint policy push will persist. We are concerned that the Commission's flexibility on the fiscal rules will reverse. Our early warning indicator of fiscal crisis risk is below the levels it reached for the peripherals in 2009-2010. A moderate slippage in fiscal performance over the next year won't change this assessment; the fiscal risk sub-index should be no worse in 2016 than in 2014. Our concern is more that idiosyncratic national political risks materialise and amplify market concerns, for example, in Portugal (see below). End 2016 could see the first ECB tapering discussion If growth and inflation perform in line with our baseline forecasts, the measures announced by the ECB on 3 December ought to be the last major Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 25 Figure 5: Unexpected 2015 euro appreciation dampens 2016 GDP growth Index 100 105 110 80 85 90 95 2012 2013 Actual Current assumption Source: Deutsche Bank Research , ECB 2014 2015 Euro trade-weighted index Forecast Difference equivalent to -0.1% off GDP growth in 2016 2016 2017 Previous assumption Figure 6: Financial conditions are easy 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 EFTA01476025 0.8 1.0 1.2 Euro area narrow Financial Conditions Index (market-based) Rising means easier, falling means tighter # of standard deviations 20140101 20140618 20141203 20150520 20151104 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Bloomberg Finance LP, Haver Analytics LP Figure 7: Bottom-up fiscal stance estimates underestimating extent of fiscal easing in 2016 1.5 0.5 1 -0.5 0 -1.5 -1 -2 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , European Commission 2017 Forecasts 'Fiscal Stance' (change in the structural primary budget balance ), pp of GDP positive numbers are a tightening of the fiscal stance, negative numbers a loosening of the fiscal stance EFTA01476026 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity easing moves of the cycle. The outlook for economic recovery is not strong, but modestly above-trend economic growth means a gradual narrowing of the output gap and hence a gradual normalisation of core inflation. We expect that roughly a year from now the ECB will have to think about whether to extend QE again or to taper in 2017. It may be slightly more marginal after what happened on 3 December, but the balance of probabilities suggests that a tapering discussion is likely to take place. On current expectations, core inflation will have risen to within a couple of tenths of its historical average in H2 2016 and will be on course for a further correction upwards in 2017 and 2018. The ECB has tended to announce new unconventional policy measures when the two-year ahead consensus headline inflation forecast is 1.6% or lower and tighten policy when it is 1.9% or higher. If our forecasts for core and non-core inflation are correct — in particular our expectation for rise in oil prices in 2017 — headline inflation ought to satisfy the criterion for tightening policy. Mario Draghi is likely to be cautious A sustainable correction in inflation is the objective — this means more than just reaching the inflation target for one year. The ECB will be nervous of creating its own 'taper tantrum'. We expect the ECB to taper its QE purchases, meaning that purchases will continue after the current scheduled end date of March 2017 at a declining rate. A decision to taper is the first step towards exit and that is likely to result in a euro fixed income market correction/normalisation later in 2016, tightening financial conditions. We see the first ECB policy rate hike only at the end of 2018. The risk is that oil prices continue to decline in the near term and weigh on headline inflation. If this weakens medium-term inflation expectations, the late2016 tapering risk will dissipate and the pressure for further ECB easing will grow. Political risks to rise into 2017 In Spain we think the tail risk of a radical party having a position of influence within the new government is low. Beyond that, however, the euro area is dotted with potential risks. Portugal's minority Socialist government looks unlikely to survive a major test, particularly if it requires more austerity and reform. The Catalan independence bid is a source of uncertainty. Ireland's outgoing coalition has a tailwind from strong GDP growth but is short of majority on current polls. Italy is the peripheral with the largest proportion of votes going to eurosceptic and populist parties. The risk is that the 2018 Italian EFTA01476027 election is brought forward one year. Opinion polls leave the UK referendum on EU membership — possibly in late 2016 — too close to call for now. The greatest political tests for Europe next year come from the refugee and terror crises. The conservative backlash in Germany against Merkel's initial welcoming is very gradually narrowing differences across countries on how best to address the refugee wave. The new terror dimension to the refugee crisis we believe will more likely than not lead Europe to a more unified stance. Germany may be more willing to compromise on otherwise more divisive issues like Greece debt and fiscal easing to secure a better deal for refugees, for example, or more funds to deal with the crisis 'at source'. However, we do not expect any real progress on euro area integration — greater fiscal autonomy as a compromise for Catalonia would be the opposite of what a stronger euro area requires — nor do we expect the unified stance to last into 2017. The closer we get to the German, French and Dutch elections in 2017, the more disharmonious Europe is likely to sound. Political uncertainty will likely be another hurdle to growth in 2017 while elections create reasons for further delays to structural reforms. Page 26 Figure 8: Balance of probabilities points to initial ECB tapering discussion in late 2016 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 Policy tends to tighten above 1.9% Probable area of forecast by H2 2016 Unconventional policies implemented below 1.6% ECB Survery of Professional Forecasters two-year ahead consensus headline inflation forecast 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , ECB Figure 9: Fiscal risk get more worse in 2016; it is political risk we need to focus on 0.0 0.1 0.2 EFTA01476028 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Early warning indicator fiscal sub-index Forecast EA weighted avg max min 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 0.0 indicates none of the components are above the crisis threshold level, 1.0 indicators all are above the crisis threshold Source: Deutsche Bank Research Figure 10: Other indicators & financial forecasts: Euro area 2014 M3 growth, % yoy eop Fiscal balance, % of GDP Public debt, % of GDP Trade balance, EUR bn Trade balance, % of GDP Current account, EUR bn Current account, % of GDP Financial forecasts Official 3M rate 10Y yield USD per EUR JPY per EUR GBP per EUR 3.7 -2.6 94.5 241.8 2.4 245.6 2.4 2015F 4.7 -2.2 94.6 328.0 EFTA01476029 3.2 308.0 3.0 0.05 2016F 5.5 -2.0 94.0 295.8 2.8 290.8 2.7 0.05 2017F 5.2 -1.6 92.8 256.3 2.3 251.3 2.3 Current 01-2016 02-2016 04-2016 0 05 0.05 -0.11 0.69 1.09 134 0.72 -0.15 0.65 1.01 128 0.71 -0.15 0.80 0.97 124 0.71 Source: National authorities, Deutsche Bank Research, as of December 07 -0.15 1.10 0.90 115 0.71 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476030 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Summing up The net result of all these forces is that we see euro area GDP growth at 1 6% in 2016, the mildest of accelerations on 2015 and consistent with our earlier views. However, the composition of growth has changed compared to earlier views. Export growth is expected to be a little slower, with indirect impacts on investment and employment. Monetary and fiscal policy will try to fill the hole left by the discontinuation of this year's oil stimulus. The biggest risk to g rowth in 2016 is that the joint policy effort does not replace the fading oil stimulus. We fear 2016 will mark the peak rate of growth in this recovery and GDP growth will be slower in 2017. Oil prices pose a significant threat in 2017. Our commodity strategists expect oil prices to rise in 2017, for supply reasons, not demand. The fiscal rules are likely to bite more in 2017 than 2016. If inflation is rising, the ECB will probably not turn on the monetary spigot again either. Structural reform has been very modest, meaning little expectation for a noncyclical recovery. The onus will increasingly be on the global recovery to compensate. Given the repeated overestimation of global growth in recent years, a stronger global economy has a lot to prove. Euro area inflation: Normalising Euro area inflation should recover gradually over the coming quarters as (1) the drag from lower commodity costs is assumed to progressively fade, (2) the weaker exchange rate is putting upward pressure on non-commodity import prices and (3) improving economic conditions and ECB support for expectations allow some normalisation in domestic inflation. Point (1), above, is likely to mean that consumer energy inflation will rise quickly into 2016; under our assumptions, headline and core inflation are expected to converge by the end of 2016. Indirect effects via domestic production costs are however one factor working against a quick rise in underlying inflation. (2) has been increasingly visible in some HICP components, with HICP durable goods inflation for example running at close to record highs in October. This should continue to exert some upward pressure on consumer prices through next year, especially on goods prices, but also on some services components, such as package holidays. (3) Growth above trend and falling unemployment are expected to support margins and allow some rise in labour costs, while higher spot inflation and ECB policy should push up inflation expectations. In that context, domestic inflation is projected to rise, although only gradually. We see inflation close to 1% on average next year and around 1.6% in 2017. EFTA01476031 UK: On course to a mid-year rate hike The outlook remains for GDP growth to slow to trend over 2016 and 2017. In our view, government spending will slow due to ongoing austerity and we expect investment and exports to be held back by the EU referendum and a fragile external backdrop/strong currency, respectively. Growth will likely be weighted towards consumption. Inflation should rise and undermine purchasing power, but only slowly. We expect interest rates to rise too, and household finances are more highly geared than ever. However, the slowdown in private consumption growth should be more muted thanks to robust employment growth and the capacity for households to reduce the savings rate. Figure 11: Headline and core inflation to correct upwards in 2016 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 % yoy Euro Area HICP inflation Forecast Headline Core (ex efat) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Eurostat Figure 12: The inflation benefits of euro depreciation are materialising 1.5 2 0.5 1 -0.5 0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , ECB, Eurostat 2015 HICP core goods (NEIG) (lhs) EUR trade-weighted, 18m lead (rhs) % yoy % yoy, inverted -20 EFTA01476032 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Figure 13: Household confidence points to inflation turning point HICP, recreation & personal services (lhs) Household confidence, financial situation (15m lead, rhs) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 % yoy % balance 10 -15 -10 -5 0 5 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Eurostat, European Commission Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 27 EFTA01476033 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity After remaining within a narrow band (0.lpp) of zero for most of this year, inflation looks set to rise with base effects likely to add 0.6-0.7% by February. We expect CPI to average 1.1% in 2016 but it will probably still be shy of 1% at the time of the May inflation report. Evidence of rising inflation will be important to the BoE when it comes to deciding to tighten policy, as will improved prospects for wages and economic growth generally. Some on the Monetary Policy Committee would no doubt feel uncomfortable raising rates at the same time as having to explain the downside miss to its inflation target, but we do not expect this to stop the Bank from hiking. Should the Fed raise rates in December as we expect, then our call for the first BoE move in May looks reasonable based on past experience. The Bank is not governed by US policy — but there are numerous reasons we think the MPC will follow suit with a lag: i) globalisation has meant increased synchronisation, with both the BoE and Fed facing the same external conditions, ii) the UK is sandwiched between the tightening Fed and loosening ECB, iii) given the potential risks from a Fed move (particularly to EM), it seems reasonable for the BoE to wait given the UK's external sensitivity, and iv) in signaling the start of a hiking cycle a Fed tightening could push the dollar higher leaving the pound weaker (note our bearish sterling forecasts) — giving the BoE more room to cut. Figure 14: Macro-economic activity & inflation forecasts: UK Economic activity 2015 (% qoq, saar) GDP Private consumption Investment Gov't consumption Exports Imports Domestic demand Contribution (pp): Stocks Net trade Industrial production Unemployment rate, % Prices & wages (% yoy) CPI Producer prices Compensation per empl. Productivity Source: National authorities, Deutsche Bank Research The timing of UK rate rises could be impacted by the EU referendum. Currently the referendum bill is going through the upper house, where peers have amended the legislation which — if retained — would allow 16/17-yearolds EFTA01476034 to vote. This is contentious, as younger voters are seen as more supportive of EU membership. Whether or not this amendment is upheld, allowing 16/17-year-olds to vote could delay the previously expected timing of the vote — either because of the time it takes to register the additional voters or because the bill goes back and forth before the elected Commons finally gets its way to drop the amendment. A pre-summer vote thus looks difficult (given the referendum cannot be held within four months of the bill being passed), with autumn more likely — if not into 2017. The Conservative Party's manifesto pledged a referendum before end 2017. A delay raises the risk that inward investment is not merely deferred but diverted to other countries. This could be particularly disruptive to growth given that the UK has the largest stock of inward investment globally outside Page 28 Figure 15: Other indicators & financial forecasts: UK 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F M4 growth, % Fiscal balance, % of GDP, FY Trade balance, GBP bn Trade balance, % of GDP Current account, GBP bn Current account, % of GDP Financial forecasts Official 3M rate 10Y yield USD per GBP GBP per EUR -1.1 -4.9 -92.9 -5.1 0.4 -4.0 -6.6 -80.4 -4.3 0.50 0.58 1.90 1.42 0.71 2.6 -2.5 -6.8 -60.6 -3.1 0.75 0.84 EFTA01476035 2.00 1.37 0.71 3.5 -1.0 -123.7 -124.9 -133.4 -146.0 -6.8 -7.1 -60.0 -3.0 Current 01-2016 Q2-2016 04-2016 0.50 0.57 1.93 1.51 0.72 1.00 1.12 2.40 1.27 0.71 Source: National authorities, Deutsche Bank Research, as of December 07 Q1 1.5 3.1 6.3 4.4 -4.7 4.1 0.1 -0.6 1.6 5.5 0.1 -1.8 2.3 0.8 Q2 2.6 3.7 4.2 1.6 7.8 2.5 -10.4 -2.3 -1.3 1.4 2.4 5.6 0.0 EFTA01476036 -1.6 2.6 1.1 1.9 3.0 5.4 5.3 3.6 0.9 -1.5 0.8 5.3 0.0 -1.8 3.0 0.7 23.8 7.9 2.5 2.4 4.1 0.0 2.4 1.9 1.7 2.4 4.9 0.0 2.4 2.6 2.6 -0.1 0.0 0.8 5.3 0.1 -1.2 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.8 5.2 0.7 -0.1 2.4 1.7 2016 2.6 2.4 5.7 EFTA01476037 0.0 2.0 2.6 2.8 0.1 -0.1 0.8 5.1 1.0 0.1 2.3 1.5 2.5 2.4 5.7 0.0 2.0 2.5 2.7 0.0 -0.1 0.8 5.1 1.1 1.0 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.4 5.7 0.0 2.0 2.5 2.6 0.0 -0.1 0.8 5.0 1.5 1.6 3.0 2.1 2015F 2016F 2017F Q3 Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F % yoy % yoy % yoy 2.6 2.4 3.0 3.9 2.4 3.5 3.4 EFTA01476038 2.4 -0.9 -0.1 1.2 5.4 0.0 -1.6 2.4 0.9 2.5 2.6 5.1 0.8 2.7 4.0 2.8 0.2 -0.5 0.9 5.1 1.1 0.6 2.6 1.9 2.3 2.4 6.0 0.0 1.8 2.2 2.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.8 4.9 1.9 1.9 3.4 1.8 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476039 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity of the US. The government needs to balance the competing objectives of a swift enough vote to retain investment, but allowing sufficient time for negotiations with Brussels. EU membership renegotiations will begin at this month's European Council meeting. A deal seems more likely at the February Council meeting at the earliest. Mr Cameron's four themes for renegotiation are explored in our 27 November Focus Europe, but in short the key demands are: i) improving competitiveness by reducing red tape and deepening the Single Market — where work is already under way, ii) economic governance — ensuring that rules governing the euro area are not automatically imposed on the UK, iii) returning greater sovereignty to the UK — the 'Europe where necessary' philosophy, and most contentiously iv) constraining migration by use of the benefits system. The vote looks likely to be closer than the last EU referendum in 1975 when the tally was 66% for remaining in. Polls have swung towards those favouring exit recently, with some even showing a majority wanting to leave. However, the average poll shows "In" slightly trumping "Out" (around 43% vs 40%). But similar to 1975, a government campaigning to remain in, supported by the opposition and the media in general, may well produce a vote to remain in the EU — albeit in modestly amended form. Still, we should expect a bumpy ride between now and then as some polls raise the risk of exit. European politics: Testing times to continue into 2016 The environment for European policymakers has become even more challenging following the terrorist attacks in France in mid -November. Managing (and containing) the massive influx of refugees since the summer was already keeping many EU member states busy, above all Germany. The controversial decision on a quota for the redistribution of refugees and the lack of full application of European rules has provided some evidence for the different interests and the respective understanding of solidarity on this topic. Politics has started to move. Fuelled by the threat of terrorist attacks, a more coherent response to the refugee crisis should be felt in different policy areas. Foreign and security policy will become more extensive including a stronger control of the EU's external borders and most likely a more conservative European response to the refugee crisis. In terms of fiscal monitoring, the fiscal framework in the euro area provides sufficient flexibility (to a reasonable extent) should higher public spending related to foreign and security or asylum policy drive budget deficits beyond the agreed trajectory up. The European Commission intends to provide a thorough assessment of member state budget plans in Q1/ 2016. EU-28 relations with Russia might be reviewed as Russia is seen as an important partner in coping with the tensions in the Middle East and by extension the refugee crisis and the threat of terrorism. A number of the sanctions imposed in 2014 have been linked to a successful implementation of EFTA01476040 the Minsk 2 agreement by the end of this year. The overall political environment — if not again deteriorating after the most recent events in Turkey and Ukraine — might work towards a re-assessment of parts of the sanctions over the course of 2016. The Netherlands will assume the EU Council Presidency in the first half of 2016. One major topic will be re-negotiating the terms of British EU-membership. The Dutch are well positioned as a mediator in this complex process as they share some of the demands put forward by British PM Cameron but firmly support European integration. There is considerable political goodwill by the EU Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 29 Figure 16: Huge influx of refugees in Europe* 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *Schengen states, i e. EU28 + Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland Sources: Eurostat, Deutsche Bank Research eop, Thous. monthly figures ,Thous. application proceedings pending (lhs) asylum applicants (rhs) 100 120 140 160 180 20 40 60 80 0 EFTA01476041 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity partners to keep Britain in the EU. However, there is also a substantial risk that the deal struck is not perceived as sufficient by the British public to vote in favour of EU membership in the in/out referendum. The Juncker Commission is following through on its promise to reduce the deluge of laws and to focus on clear priorities. One of them is improving and extending the single market. Proposals have been presented for the service sector as well as the digital economy. Another is the September Action Plan to establish a Capital Markets Union by 2019. It seeks better integration of capital markets to complement bank financing of the real economy in Europe, e.g., with less restrictive rules for securitisation. Aimed at unlocking investment in Europe (additional EUR 315bn over the next three years) is the European Fund for Strategic Investment EFSI, which is up and running now. Finally, the Commission has tabled a proposal on the third pillar of the banking union, a pan-European deposit insurance scheme. The proposal envisages a gradual merging of national schemes starting in 2017 with a system of reinsurance and ending with a European backstop fund in 2024. Despite the longer phasing -in of the new system, Germany has already expressed its strong reservations regarding the Commission's initiative. Thus the time line appears to be more than ambitious. EMEA: Contrasting paths Growth in EMEA appears set to accelerate, to nearly double to 2% next year as Russia and Ukraine emerge from their deep recessions. Elsewhere, we expect growth to remain relatively stable or contract slightly. We're not quite ready to call the end of the recession in Russia just yet but the economy has shown clear signs of bottoming over the last few months. The recovery, however, is likely to be slow. Oil prices look set to remain low, likely prompting the government to rein in spending over the coming year. Access to financing will remain difficult so long as sanctions are still in place. Inflation is falling and this will support a recovery in real incomes and confidence. Overall, however, we would expect the recovery to be hesitant, with the economy bouncing along a floor for the next year or so. This points to a contraction of 3.7% this year and a further 0.7% drop in 2016. The longer-term outlook is barely less challenging. Poor productivity performance and a shrinking work force should cap potential growth to 1-2%. Structural reforms are needed to raise the economy's productive potential but these seem further away than ever as Russia has pursued a more inwardlooking growth strategy following the deterioration in its relationship with the west. The outlook for Russia is subject to significant risks, mostly associated EFTA01476042 with the price of oil and geopolitics. But these risks are much more balanced, if not slightly skewed to the upside, than was the case heading into this year. The geopolitical landscape has shifted since last month's terrorist attacks in Paris, which have raised the prospect that Western leaders might soften their stance on sanctions in exchange for Russian support in targeting Islamic State forces in Syria. Whether this will prove to be the case is still far from clear. It will be difficult for the EU to start to remove sanctions as early as January (when they are set to expire) while progress in implementing the Minsk agreement remains so patently partial. But recent developments do make a reduction in sanctions at some point next year more rather than less likely. The economy has held up rather better in Turkey, the region's other geopolitical hotspot. After multiple elections over the last two years, the domestic political outlook became clearer when the AKP regained its overall Page 30 Figure 17: EMEA: pickup in growth reflects fading recessions EMEA -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2009 2011 Source: Deutsche Bank Research 2013 2015F 2017F EMEA excluding Russia and Ukraine Figure 18: Russia recessions compared -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 EFTA01476043 Peak-to-trough drop in output 1998 2008-09 * estimated/forecast Source: Deutsche Bank Research 2015 * Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476044 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity majority in parliament last month. This should at least provide investors with a bit more clarity, even as the risks emanating from its southern borders remain acute. Against this backdrop, we think growth will remain positive albeit relatively mediocre at around 3% over the next year or so. Any upside will likely be capped by the need to further tighten monetary conditions to shore up the lira and keep inflation in check as and when the Fed begins to normalize its policy. The economy in South Africa has been in the doldrums, growing by barely 1% this year. The year ahead is unlikely to be any better as declining profits weigh on investment and household demand. The government will be unable to provide offsetting support as it will need to stick to its hard spending ceilings, and possibly raise taxes, to stabilize the level of debt. Monetary policy will be similarly pro-cyclical. Longstanding structural weaknesses have continued to weigh on the rand. The resulting upward pressure on prices may now be amplified by a severe drought. The central bank has already hiked rates a couple of times in the last few months and, like the Turkish central bank, will likely to have to tighten further in the coming year in response to the Fed. Central Europe by contrast has been a relative island of stability over the past year, growing by around 3.6%, the fastest pace since 2008. Public investment might weaken a little following the shift to a new EU budget envelope. Some transitory factors that supported growth this year will also fade, such as the surge in inventories in the Czech Republic and the provision of refunds to holders of foreign currency mortgages in Hungary. Growth is thus set to slow this year, but only moderately, as the region's fundamentals remain generally healthy. The risks to the growth outlook are primarily external and, as ever, tied to a slowdown in the Euro Area. An escalation of the VW crisis would also weigh on the region's prospects given the importance of the group in the region's manufacturing base. The outlook is particularly uncertain in Poland given the lack of clarity on the new government's fiscal policy stance and the significant upcoming changes in the central bank's rate-setting monetary policy committee. With domestic demand expected to remain strong and the sharp drop in oil prices in late 2014 now dropping out of the base, inflation should start to inch higher in the coming quarters (except in Romania where another VAT cut will offset this). Food prices are also expected to climb as the impact of the earlier EFTA01476045 drought starts to bite. Imported inflation, however, is expected to remain very subdued. This will likely limit the pace of any acceleration in inflation, which we expect to remain below target across the region in the first half of the year. While we're not expecting any rate cuts, the benign outlook for inflation leaves scope for some further loosening of monetary policy across the region in the near term if growth disappoints. In contrast to other emerging markets in the region, Central Europe is also less exposed to the Fed rate hiking cycle and should continue to benefit from the tailwinds provided by further ECB easing. Figure 19: EMEA: two very different inflation stories % yoy 10 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2014 Russia, South Africa, & Turkey CEE & Israel Inflation* 2015 * simple averages Source: Deutsche Bank Research 2016 2017 Figure 20: CEE: growth set to remain robust % yoy -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Real GDP growth in Central Europe * EFTA01476046 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015F 2017F * Simple average Source: Deutsche Bank Research Mark Wall, (44) 20 7545 2087 Markus Heider, (44) 20 7545 2167 Stefan Schneider, (49) 69910 31790 Barbara Boettcher, (49) 69 910 31787 George Buckley, (44) 20 7545 1372 Caroline Grady, (44) 20 7545 9913. Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 31 EFTA01476047 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Japan: Return to steady recovery trend IIWe forecast the Japanese economy to return to underlying trend growth of real GDP at annualized 1.0-1.5% after a temporary soft patch in Q2 and Q3 2015 IIWe see low likelihood of meaningfully negative second-round effects from the global slowdown to domestic non-manufacturers despite an inevitable impact on the Japanese manufacturers. A soft patch, not a recession Real GDP shrank 0.2%qoq (annualized -0.8%) in Q3, the second consecutive negative contraction, but we do not think this means the economy has entered a recession because of the large negative inventory contribution in Q3 growth and the low accuracy of Japanese preliminary GDP estimate. Our Nowcast index (DBNCI) has been revised upward and is now trending gradually higher. We think the Japanese economy was in a soft patch in Q2 and Q3 but these instances were mild and transitory and should be followed by real final sales (GDP minus inventories) growth at an underlying trend of an annualized 1.0-1.5%. Resiliency of non-manufacturing sector Because the scale of the ongoing global economic slowdown from early 2015 is limited compared to the collapse of the IT bubble in 2000-2001 or the global financial crisis of 2007-08, we forecast a low likelihood of meaningfully negative second-round effects from the global slowdown to domestic nonmanufacturers, thus leading to a recession, despite an inevitable impact on the Japanese manufacturers. Predicting an expansion in domestic demand (mainly private consumption) Although we predict a return to an economic expansion with annualized growth of 1.0-1.5% from Q4 2015, this is likely to be driven not by exports but rather by domestic demand (in particular private consumption). Nominal aggregate wages (= total cash earnings per person x number of employees) are maintaining growth of an annualized 2.0-2.5% and inflation is predicted to converge at around 1%, so 1.0-1.5% growth in real aggregate wages is probably the underlying trend. Therefore, we think real private consumption could maintain annualized growth of 1.0-1.25%. Figure 3: Macro-economic activity & inflation forecasts: Japan Economic activity 2015 (% qoq, saar) GDP Private consumption Investment Gov't consumption EFTA01476048 Exports Imports Contribution (pp): Private inventory Net trade Industrial production Unemployment rate, % Prices & wages (% yoy) CPI Core CPI Producer prices Compensation per empl. Productivity Source: National authorities, Deutsche Bank Research Q1 4.6 1.7 6.4 1.1 Q2 -0.7 -2.3 -0.4 2.6 8.0 -16.1 7.8 -10.8 1.8 0.2 6.3 3.5 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.6 -1.9 0.9 -1.3 -5.5 3.3 0.5 0.5 -2.2 0.2 1.3 -0.8 2.1 -2.7 1.2 10.9 7.1 -1.9 EFTA01476049 0.8 -5.2 3.4 0.1 0.8 -3.6 0.8 1.0 3.4 1.4 2.0 1.2 4.6 0.5 0.9 3.0 3.4 0.3 0.9 -2.8 1.3 1.2 -0.5 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.2 5.8 5.4 0.2 0.2 2.6 3.4 0.6 1.1 -0.9 1.9 1.1 2016 1.1 1.4 0.7 1.2 6.6 8.1 0.0 -0.1 3.0 3.4 0.5 1.1 EFTA01476050 -0.9 1.9 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 7.4 6.6 0.0 0.3 3.4 3.4 0.8 1.0 0.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.4 1.6 1.2 7.6 7.1 Figure 1: DBNCI turned to uptrend 29-Oct-15 19-Nov-15 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Index 30-Nov-15 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Note: Horizontal line shows -0.25 threshold for recessions. Source: Deutsche Bank Research Figure 2: Rising nominal wages Nominal aggregate wages, 3mma Nominal wage index per-capita, 3mma Employment index 100 105 110 115 90 95 EFTA01476051 2000 2003 2006 2009 Source: MHLW, Deutsche Bank Research 2012 2015 Index, CY 2010=100, sa 2015F 2016F 2017F Q3 Q4F 01F Q2F Q3F Q4F % yoy % yoy % yoy 1.6 0.7 -0.6 0.0 1.4 3.3 0.7 -0.4 0.3 4.1 3.4 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.5 -0.9 3.4 0.8 1.1 -2.0 0.7 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.3 5.1 4.1 -0.1 0.3 1.4 3.4 0.7 1.0 0.0 1.9 1.2 0.8 EFTA01476052 -0.2 1.0 1.2 6.9 4.7 -0.1 0.5 1.7 3.3 2.1 1.9 2.6 1.8 0.5 Page 32 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476053 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Little hope for an export recovery We do not carry high hopes for exports to recover due to Japan-specific factors (continued outward foreign direct investment, low price elasticity for luxury goods exports, an exclusion of Japanese manufacturers from the global supply chain since the Great East Japan Earthquake) as well as a global factor, namely the shift to a closed economy regime (disappearance of growth frontiers: decline in benefits of international trade). CPI inflation to converge at around 1% The level of CPI excluding energy clearly turned around in H1 2013 after 15 years of declines up to 2012, and has maintained an upward trend of around 1% annualized since then. Deflation has clearly ended, mainly as the result of QE that started at a cautious pace under former-BoJ Governor Shirakawa in 2012. There is an argument that inflation will slow from now on due to a stable JPY exchange rate and a weak rise in wages; however, the fact that the Japanese economy is moving from the flat section on the Phillips curve to the steeper section indicates that an economic expansion will have larger impact on inflation than before. This regime shift should fully offset possible drags on inflation from a stable JPY exchange rate and slow wage growth. Not predicting additional monetary easing Based on the facts that the BoJ at present is promising an almost open-ended easing with no set limit on the timeline and that the scale of the monetary base increase is an annual JPY8Otrn (16% of GDP), an overwhelming scale compared to other countries, we forecast monetary policy is likely to maintain the current easing stance (no more rounds of easing). Were the BoJ to enact additional monetary easing reluctantly, we believe this would only occur in the case of a sharp slowdown in the global economy, JPY appreciation, and a slump in share prices. Japanese economy almost reaches its new steady state We have reiterated several times that the new steady state of the Japanese economy since the introduction of QQE in April 2013 is 2% nominal GDP growth, 1% CPI inflation, 1% 10-year JGB yield, and 5% M2 growth. The Japanese economy has been in the transition process and seems to be very close to this new steady state. Figure 7: Other indicators & financial forecasts 2014 M2 growth, % Fiscal balance, % of GDP Public debt, % of GDP Trade balance, USD bn Trade balance, % of GDP Current account, USD bn EFTA01476054 Current account, % of GDP Financial forecasts Official 3M rate 10Y yield JPY per USD JPY per EUR 3.4 -5.9 213.6 -99.8 -2.2 24.9 0.5 2015F 3.8 -5.4 211.6 -9.3 -0.2 137.0 3.3 0.10 0.15 0.40 127 128 Figure 4 : Export volume of major countries Total (38 countries) Germany Japan 100 120 140 160 40 60 80 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Note: Total includes EU 28 countries, US, Japan, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, China, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. China is included from January 2005. Source: Haver Analytics LP, Deutsche Bank Research Index, CY 2010=100 US China EFTA01476055 Figure 5 : Consumer price index 101 103 105 107 109 97 99 1995 2000 2005 Note: Excluding the consumption tax hike effect Sources: MIC, Deutsche Bank Research 2010 2015 Overall Overall, excluding fresh food Overall, excluding food and energy Overall, excluding fresh food and energy Index, CY 2010=100, sa 2016F 4.8 -4.5 210.5 -22.6 -0.5 152.4 3.6 0.10 0.15 0.45 128 124 2017F 5.1 -3.4 208.4 -23.5 -0.5 168.8 3.9 Current Q1-2016 02-2016 Q4-2016 0.10 0.17 0.32 123 134 0.10 0.15 0.55 128 EFTA01476056 115 Source: National statistics, Deutsche Bank Research, as of December 07 Note: DB forecast from Q4 2015. Source: Cabinet Office, METI, Nikkei NEEDS, Deutsche Bank Research Mikihiro Matsuoka, (81) 3 5156 6768 Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 33 Figure 6 : Nominal GDP and industrial production Industrial production (lhs) 100 105 110 115 120 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Index, CY2010=100, sa Forecast Nominal GDP (rhs) JPY trn, sa 450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 550 EFTA01476057 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity China: Rising challenges to trigger further policy easing China's economy had a tough year in 2015. 2016 will likely be even more challenging. The current round of policy easing may help to boost growth in Q4 2015 and Q1 2016, but it will exacerbate overcapacity and raise leverage, both are damaging in the long term. In mid-2016 the government may face a policy dilemma again. Downside pressure on growth may resurface, and pressure the government into further policy easing. Growth will likely stabilize in 2016Q1 The economic difficulty that troubled China for most of 2015 may be arrested temporarily in Q1. The difficulty in 2015 was to some extent due to a large fiscal contraction caused by the decline of lands sales revenue in Hl. Land auctions have rebounded strongly since mid-2015 because of policy easing (Figure 1). As growth of land sale revenue usually lags growth of land auctions by 1-2 quarters, the fiscal revenue has improved in Q4 2015 and should rebound further in Q1 2016. This will likely help GDP growth to pick up in Q4 and Ql. Investment is still the channel to boost growth, in our view. Higher land sales in Q3 2015 indicate the weak property investment may finally show some signs of stabilization in Q4 and Ql. Growth of infrastructure investment may pick up again as land sales help boost fiscal revenue. Property and infrastructure combined account for almost half of investment in China. Hence we expect investment growth may pick up modestly in Q4 2015 and Q1 2016. Challenges may rise beyond 2016Q1 The rebound of land sales was driven primarily by policy easing rather than economic fundamentals. The property sector remains in an oversupplied condition, as indicated by a rising level of inventory (Figure 2). This round of rebound in land sales helps to address economic and fiscal pressure in the short term, but will exacerbate the oversupply problem in the property sector. The policy easing since mid-2015 also led to another undesirable outcome — acceleration of leverage buildup. The growth of credit stock as measured by the total social financial picked up in Q3 to 12.5% yoy from 11.9% in Q2. Based on our estimate this is the first time it rebounded since 2014Q4. The rising leverage in the economy imposes financial risks. The authorities are clearly aware of this, but decided to focus on the short-term growth concern in H2 2015. Given the undesirable side effects of policy easing, we believe the government may switch to a neutral policy stance in Q4 2015 once growth shows signs of stabilization We expect the effect of policy easing will run out of steam in H1 and growth will then face downward pressure again. Labor market dynamics may drive the policy outlook The key macro uncertainty in 2016 lies in the labor market. In spite of expectation of slower growth beyond Ql, the prospect of unemployment is EFTA01476058 unclear. The best indicator in the market about labor condition is the ratio of job vacancies to job seekers. This ratio dropped in H1 as growth slowed, which is intuitive as it suggested weak labor demand. But it surprisingly rebounded in Q3. Moreover the ratio has been above 1 for 20 consecutive quarters (Figure 3) This suggests the job market does not show signs of rising unemployment despite of the slower growth. Figure 2: Rising housing inventory Floor space for sale 500 550 600 650 700 Mln sq metres Figure 1: Land sales and local government land sales revenue % yoy 20 40 60 80 -60 -40 -20 0 Sep-2013 Mar-2014 Sep-2014 Mar-2015 Sep-2015 Source: CREIS, Ministry of Finance, Deutsche Bank Research SouFun land sales, value Local government land sales revenue Feb-2014 Jul-2014 Dec-2014 May-2015 Oct-2015 Source: WIND, Deutsche Bank Research Figure 3: Job vacancies to job seekers ratio 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 Job vacancies to job seekers ratio Source: WIND, Deutsche Bank Research Page 34 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476059 Dec -10 Mar -11 Jun-11 Sep -11 Dec -11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep -12 Dec -12 Mar -13 Jun-13 Sep -13 Dec -13 Mar -14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec -14 Mar -15 Jun-15 Sep -15 EFTA01476060 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity We understand why the labor market has been resilient, but we do not have full confidence it will stay so in 2016. The stable labor market reflects three factors. The labor force is shrinking, hence less pressure to supply side. The demand side has been boosted by a robust service sector, which helps to absorb labor from the weak industrial sector. Moreover, the government managed to prevent large scale layoffs so far, despite the growth slowdown. This delays job destruction. The labor market outlook is uncertain because the delayed job shedding may occur in 2016. The government started to send signals recently that it would tolerate more bankruptcy. Premier Li Keqiang mentioned the risk imposed by "zombie companies" on the economy in a State Council meeting in November. The lack of government intervention in the recent Shanshui cement bond default may also indicate the subtle change in government's thinking. The government recently mentioned the importance of managing the supply side of the economy, which suggests it may finally address the overcapacity problem more seriously. We believe it is the right policy to allow some "zombie companies" to go bankrupt. It will help improve the efficiency of the economy and avoid building up of bad loans down the road. The impact on the labor market in the short term is difficult to forecast. We assume as a baseline case that there will be some signs of rising unemployment in the economy. In such a scenario we believe the government will respond by cutting interest rates twice in H2 2016 and expand fiscal spending. There is room for policy easing in 2016, but with caveats The government has the capacity to ease policies. On the monetary front, the reserve requirement ratio is still quite high (Figure 4). We expect 4 RRR cuts in 2016. The one-year deposit rate is currently at 1.5%. With inflation relatively low, the PBoC can cut the benchmark interest rates if downward pressure on growth intensifies. On the fiscal front, total government debt is around 39.6% of GDP, not including the RMB8.6 trillion debt of local government financing vehicles, which has been recognized by the central government. This is lower than the level in major developed economies. Further policy easing clearly has its costs. The leverage ratio of the economy will likely rise further and imposes higher financial risks. Loosening of monetary policy may delay the resolution of "zombie companies" and overcapacity problem further. The benefit of short-term growth stabilization will come with pains in the longer term, and the tradeoff is becoming increasingly unfavorable. There is room for easing in 2016, but this may come with a hefty price. SDR inclusion is structurally positive EFTA01476061 The SDR inclusion of the RMB on November 30 is a structurally positive development for China (Figure 5). The most significant macro implication is on reform outlook. The progress of structural reforms has been slow. There is doubt among investors about whether China is truly committed to marketoriented reforms. Such doubt heightened in the summer after what happened in the equity market. The SDR inclusion may work as a catalyst to boost the momentum of reforms in China. It indicates that the authorities are keen to integrate China's economy further with the global economy, which may help better align China's domestic market operations with international best practices. The size of capital inflows in the short term may not be high, as the SDR inclusion itself will only begin effective Oct 1 2016. But China has opened its fixed income and foreign exchange markets to foreign central banks and Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 35 Figure 6: Deutsche Bank forecasts: China (% yoy, unless stated) Real GDP growth CPI inflation, pavg. Current account balance, % of GDP USD/CNY, eop Fiscal balance, % of GDP Government debt, % of GDP 1-year deposit rate, % M2 growth 7.3 2.0 3.1 6.1 -1.8 37.1 2.75 12.3 7.0 1.4 3.3 6.4 -3.2 39.6 1.50 13.6 Source: National authorities, Deutsche Bank Research 2.8 6.7 -3.5 40.0 1.00 EFTA01476062 12.7 Figure 4: Reserve requirement ratio 12 16 20 24 8 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: PBoC, Deutsche Bank Research Reserve requirement ratio for large financial institutions Figure 5: SDR basket 100 20 40 60 80 0 2005 2010 Source: IMF, Deutsche Bank Research 2016 11 11 34 USD EUR RMB GBP JPY 9.4 11.3 37.4 8.33 8.09 30.93 10.92 44 41.9 41.73 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 6.7 1.8 6.7 1.8 2.5 6.7 -3.5 40.5 1.00 12.4 EFTA01476063 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity sovereign wealth funds this year. We expect these institutions will start investing in 2016. Some argue that the market expectation of RMB depreciation may jeopardize the inflows. We do not think this is the key constraint, as central banks hold Euro and Yen assets despite these currencies also facing depreciation expectations. In our minds, the key constraint is that the domestic market is not ready for foreign reserve managers yet. Infrastructure needs to be established, liquidity condition needs to improve, and rules need to be revised to facilitate trading. This will take time, but we have no doubt it is doable. We maintain our view that the Chinese government will not allow sharp RMB depreciation in the rest of the year. As the market expectation for a December rate hike heightens, RMB depreciation would cause high volatility in the financial market, which is damaging to China's economy. We believe the PBoC may want to wait for the Fed to hike rate first and see how risks in the emerging markets evolve, before it takes the next move on the exchange rate. Zhiwei Zhang, (+852) 2203 8308 Page 36 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476064 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Asia (ex Japan): Triple troubles At first glance, Asia's ongoing economic slowdown could be explained away in cyclical terms that could bottom next year. After all, the hangover from the global financial crisis of 2008-09 persists and global economic recovery is uneven. With appropriate policy support, the recovery could gain strength, and it appears that 2016 may well be the year of strong fiscal spending in many parts of the world. The recent commodity bust may turn out to be temporary, with only short-lived impact on investment. G2 economies could continue to get stronger and re-emerge as a source of vigorous exports demand for Asia. China's cyclical measures to deal with overcapacity and financial system stress could pave the way for healthier growth. Even if some of these favorable developments were to transpire, Asia may find the economic environment in 2016 and 2017 to be about the same as the last couple of years. There may be further slowing of China, but India and Indonesia could see growth accelerate, Malaysia and the Philippines could maintain trend growth, and the rest of Asia could see less disappointment. Indeed, our forecast for the next two years assumes such a path. We see China settling at sub-7% growth in an orderly manner, while by 2017 India's growth should head past 7.5% and Indonesia should go back to 5%. 2-3% growth may be the norm for many other Asian economies, but given the challenging nature of the cycle, that ought to be an acceptable outturn. The key assumption in these forecasts is that financial sector risks are managed and economic spillovers from a slowing China are contained. But there are some major fault lines in this somewhat innocuous narrative. Deeper examination of the region's economic dynamic however reveals a series of headwinds that transcend the cycle. In this piece, we go over three key headwinds — aging, stagnant trade, and rising debt — that could get in the way of growth and prosperity in the coming years. There are enough savings and safeguards in place in the region to mitigate risks of an outright crisis owing to these headwinds; a more likely scenario however is a gradual erosion of potential GDP growth rate, worsening of public finances, and a general decline in sentiment about the region's prospects. Aging Considerable attention has been paid in recent years to China's rapid aging. Indeed, recent news on the relaxation of the long-standing one-child policy reflects the seriousness with which the Chinese authorities are considering the aging problem. Beyond China, a number of Asian Tiger economies are undergoing an aging process that will last decades. Aging is problematic for a variety of reasons. As the number of elderly rises, the labor force shrinks, reducing not just the availability of workers but also the output, incomes, and taxes generated by those workers. As a result, potential GDP growth declines, the fiscal position worsens (as transfers to dependents rise and tax collection EFTA01476065 from the shrinking pool of workers declines), and overall economic vitality dissipates. The decline in potential GDP growth along with a rise in the share of dependents also has adverse implications for savings, debt sustainability, and financial markets. Can't public policy arrest this problem? While we welcome China's latest initiative, we find that aging is very difficult to reverse. Singapore is a case in point. Faced with declining fertility and the prospect of rapid aging, the authorities have introduced wide-ranging measures to encourage families to have more children. These measures include longer leave for parents, tax incentives, and a more generous social safety net. But so far, the track record Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 37 Figure 2: Regional growth momentum continues to be weak z score -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Note:. Regional z-score is GDP-weighted, derived as a composite of country-by-country-scores of monthly indicators of domestic demand (.e.g. retail sales, imports, credit growth, and industrial production. Data is from 1995 to present. Source: CEIC, Deutsche Bank Research MMI Figure 1: Deutsche Bank forecasts: Emerging Asia (% yoy, unless stated) Real GDP growth Private consumption Investment Government consumption Exports Imports CPI CA balance, % of GDP Asia ex. China and India Real GDP growth CPI 6.1 6.5 5.7 6.1 6.7 EFTA01476066 6.3 -1.5 -6.1 2.4 2.6 4.1 3.4 3.6 2.2 Source: National authorities, Deutsche Bank Research 4.2 5.3 2.9 2.1 3.8 2.9 16.9 17.6 18.7 4.3 1.7 3.4 2.4 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 6.4 6.7 5.2 6.3 6.9 6.7 5.7 5.9 7.5 2.9 1.8 4.2 3.3 EFTA01476067 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity has been disappointing, with Singaporeans by and large choosing to keep family size small. We think that the Chinese authorities will also find that once set in practice, the culture and social attitude in keeping family size small is very difficult to reverse. Opening up to more immigration could reduce the headwind to aging, but that comes with its own set of political sensitivities and social implications. We reckon that most aging societies in Asia will have to accept the phenomenon and deal with recalibrating public finance, social safety net, and the service sector to take this into account. Not all economies in Asia are facing down the barrel of inexorable aging. India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, with 1.5bn people among them, should have favorable demographics dynamic for decades to come. This could create the potential of redistribution of growth, with the aging economies passing on the mantle of high growth to the relatively young ones. With the right investment policies, the latter economies could become that hub of regional manufacturing and demand. These economies also look set to maintain comfortable growth and interest rate differential to keep debt sustainable. All three are blessed with large populations and a favorable domestic demand dynamic that could generate satisfactory growth. Having a young population is no guarantee of high growth though. Not only do the governments need to put in place the requisite infrastructure and employment opportunities for the emerging workforce, they also need to ensure social stability that can often be challenged if population grows too fast. Trade stagnation Asia's success as a region owes much to its dynamic export sector. Over the past five decades, starting with Japan, followed by the Tiger economies, and then by China, Asian producers have supplied the bulk of manufactured goods consumed globally. A cost-competitive and educated workforce, businessfriendly policies, and efficient infrastructure have combined to give global leadership to Asia. But maintaining global market share and manufacturing leadership is one thing, continuing to grow with trade is turning out to be an altogether different challenge. Even as US growth has picked up, Europe has bottomed, and consumers worldwide have been benefitting from low energy prices (akin to a tax cut), Asia's exporters have had a torrid year. So far this year, all key Asian emerging market economies have reported negative exports growth. Whether they are commodity or electronics exporters, large or small economies, those that rely on China versus those that rely on G2 demand, the underperformance is across-the-board. Given the sharp drop in global commodity prices and the slowdown in China's investment cycle, it is easy to understand why commodity exporters like Indonesia and Malaysia will EFTA01476068 likely report such poor exports earnings. But the weakness among electronics producers seems counterintuitive. Surveys of purchasing managers in the US and EU show a much better environment presently for new orders than they have been in the past, say in 2013. Still, Asian exports are substantially weaker. Indeed, the tight historical relationship between Asian exports and lagged values of US and EU PMI has broken down over the past few years. Indeed, this breakdown in relationship can be seen not just with aggregate data, but with country-by-county analysis. The G2 cycle should have been much more supportive of Asian exports than has been the case. Our conjecture is that the recent bout of poor trade data reflects structural factors that will hold back exports (and export related investment) for years to come. The recovery in the US and EU is atypical, characterized by poor wage growth, low quality jobs, and greater service sector orientation than the past. Also, the aging dynamic in both regions is changing the pattern of consumption (and imports) profoundly. Furthermore, contrary to press reports Page 38 Deutsche Bank AG/London Figure 3: Deutsche Bank forecasts (% yoy, unless stated) China GDP CPI CA bal., % GDP Fiscal bal., % GDP Hong Kong GDP CPI CA bal., % GDP Fiscal bal., % GDP India GDP CPI CA bal., % GDP Fiscal bal., % GDP Indonesia GDP CPI CA bal., % GDP Fiscal bal., % GDP Malaysia GDP CPI CA bal., % GDP Fiscal bal., % GDP Philippines GDP CPI CA bal., % GDP Fiscal bal., % GDP Singapore GDP CPI CA bal., % GDP EFTA01476069 Fiscal bal., % GDP Korea GDP CPI CA bal., % GDP Fiscal bal., % GDP Sri Lanka GDP CPI CA bal., % GDP Fiscal bal., % GDP Taiwan GDP CPI CA bal., % GDP Fiscal bal. % GDP Thailand GDP CPI CA bal., % GDP Fiscal bal., % GDP Vietnam GDP CPI CA bal., % GDP Fiscal bal. % GDP Source: Deutsche Bank Research 7.0 1.4 3.3 1.8 2.8 -3.2 2.5 3.1 0.6 2.4 7.3 4.9 -1.3 -3.9 4.5 6.4 -2.2 -2.3 4.6 2.0 2.5 -3.2 6.0 1.4 2.6 -1.5 EFTA01476070 2.5 -0.4 20.2 2.6 2.6 0.7 8.9 -0.3 5.5 1.0 -1.6 -6.0 1.0 -0.3 15.6 -1.6 2.5 -0.9 3.8 -2.0 6.5 0.8 -1.6 -5.7 -3.5 3.0 4.4 2.0 1.3 7.5 5.4 -1.6 -3.8 4.5 4.8 -2.0 -2.3 4.2 2.7 3.0 -3.1 6.0 3.0 1.1 -1.6 2.5 1.2 19.4 3.3 2.8 1.6 EFTA01476071 7.3 -0.2 6.0 4.5 -1.4 -6.0 2.4 1.1 14.0 -1.8 2.5 0.9 2.7 -2.1 6.7 5.0 -2.9 -5.0 2015F 2016F 2017F 6.7 6.7 1.8 2.5 -3.5 4.0 3.8 2.4 1.8 7.8 5.0 -2.0 -3.7 5.0 5.2 -1.8 -2.2 5.0 2.6 3.3 -2.9 5.8 3.1 1.2 -1.8 2.5 1.8 17.8 3.1 3.0 2.1 7.2 EFTA01476072 0.1 7.0 5.0 -1.5 -5.5 2.7 1.6 12.7 -1.7 2.5 1.7 2.9 -2.2 7.0 5.8 -3.1 -5.0 EFTA01476073 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity of trade liberalization, trade restrictions have risen sharply among the G-20 in recent years, as per UNCTAD data. We don't think any of these drags are going away. Therefore, Asian exporters may well have to settle for a new normal of anemic exports growth. Within the region, there are some additional challenges, starting with China's import substitution drive (which has hurt intermediate and capital goods exports from Japan, Taiwan, and Korea), rising cost of production (Singapore and Thailand), and failure to move up the value chain (Taiwan and Thailand). For aspiring economies like India and Indonesia, these developments are disappointing. The prevalence of regional excess capacity and weak G2 demand for Asian exports will make it particularly hard for these economies to join the club of major export-oriented manufacturers. They will do better relying on manufacturing to satisfy domestic demand, in our view. Debt The rise in regional debt, especially in China, is under a great deal of focus, evidenced by a plethora of reports issued by multilateral agencies. Taking advantage of years of strong growth, favorable investor sentiment, relatively low rates, ample liquidity, expectations of stable currency, and supportive fiscal and financial sector policies, Asian borrowers have accumulated substantial debt in recent years. But the optimistic projections associated with these borrowings have turned out to be mostly wrong. Both nominal and real growth rates have slowed, pushing down ROE, real rates have turned out to be high owing to sharp disinflation or deflation, and for those with foreign currency borrowing, expectations of stable currency have been off by a large margin due to the strong USD cycle. For those in the commodity sector, the risks are the greatest due to the combination of sharp revenue declines and soaring cost of servicing foreign currency debt. In addition to corporates, Asian households have amassed sizable debt in recent years, with Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand characterized by burdens amounting to over 60% of GDP. China's reported household debt figures are lower (slightly below 40% of GDP), but strikingly, its households have added more than 20% of GDP worth of debt in the past five years. Gross debt figures for wealthy economies like Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan may be less alarming due to households' strong asset position, but for the rest of the cohort the high debt level can act as a major deterrent to the credit cycle and consumption outlook. High household debt may not be a source of systemic risk in the near term, but could readily become a chronic drag to growth. Unlike corporations, households don't have particularly orderly routes to restructuring debt. Hence firm level defaults and restructuring could form the headlines in the coming year, but the household debt burden that lies side-by-side could well be a bigger source of long-term headwind to the economy. Conclusion EFTA01476074 II Against this background, Asian policy makers need to recognize the nearterm risk of deflation, debt, and trade dependency, and the medium-term risk of aging and lower potential growth. Aggressive demand generating policy in the immediate future and well thought-out structural policies to address aging and competitiveness are needed. The previously successful model of growing fast as a global beta is unlikely to be replicable for most Asian economies. The key is to recognize the challenges mentioned here and strive for a more domestically (and perhaps regionally) sustainable growth model Taimur Baig (+65) 6423-8681 Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 39 EFTA01476075 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Latin America: Still adjusting to low commodity prices IILatin America's economic growth has continued to surprise on the downside. External demand has remained week, commodity prices low, and investment depressed. This together with a disorderly fiscal adjustment in Brazil and tighter economic restrictions in Venezuela and Argentina finally pushed the regional economy into recession in 2015. Further adjustment is likely to maintain negative growth in 2016, and a final recovery might need to wait until 2017, when we project 2.1% growth, lose to the new medium-term pace of the region. I1 Further exchange rate depreciation is expected to help through the ongoing adjustment process, but some large countries like Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, and Peru do need to see a bigger correction in their current account deficits. Weaker currencies and depressed economic activity will create a growing policy dilemma in the region, but are unlikely to put at risk anti-inflationary commitment among Latin American Central Bankers. IILower public and external indebtedness than in the past should buffer Latin America from a likely rate and USD shock in 2016 and 2017, but debt dynamics are becoming fragile in Brazil while liquidity constrains might warrant a debt re-profiling in Venezuela. Different than in the past, private sector debt does not pose a financing risk, but might be another toll preventing a rapid investment rebound. Within such a mediocre backdrop, Argentina's election brings great hope for significant policy improvement. Economic adjustment to continue in 2016 Economic performance has continued surprising on the downside, forcing new forecasts revisions. We now estimate 2015 to be a year characterized by economic recession. Furthermore, we project negative growth to remain during 2016, based on continued weak external demand, low commodity prices, a disorderly fiscal adjustment in Brazil, and tighter economic restrictions being the case in Venezuela. The region is still suffering from a challenging external backdrop but also from the hangover from the last commodity bonanza. Commodity prices have been falling since late 2011 but some of them have simply tumbled since mid-2014. More importantly, according to future markets, commodity prices are expected to remain weak through much of 2016. Changes to commodity prices in the last three years have greatly harmed countries like Venezuela, Chile, Colombia and Peru, with accumulated income loses since 2012 of 8.0% of GDP, 4.5%, 4.0%, and 2.3%, respectively. Weaker economies have also exacerbated increasing public sector deficits, best reflected by the chaotic fiscal adjustment Brazil has been trying to introduce since the presidential re-election in late 2014. The need to compensate for weaker public sector revenues in the case of Mexico and Colombia is noteworthy too, adding further drags to weak economies. Mexico's relative small dependence on commodities plus its strong link with EFTA01476076 US trade makes it the country with a faster recovery prospect nonetheless. FX weakening is part of the adjustment but more might be needed ahead In tandem with weaker commodity prices, regional currencies have been depreciating steadily in the last couple of years, representing changes in real exchange rates in the 15-30% range, with Brazil, Colombia, and Chile in the upper bound of the spectrum, and Peru and Mexico in the lower. This has obviously helped to improve competitiveness in the region, but it has been certainly not enough. As noted, unit labor costs were very high to start with, as well as domestic absorption. This somehow is reflected in incomplete current account adjustments in countries like Colombia, Brazil, and Peru. The latter is likely to maintain pressure on these currencies but at the same time be an additional tow for investment pickup. Page 40 Deutsche Bank AG/London Figure 1: Current account adjustment still taking place (%GDP) Brazil % GDP -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: IMF, Haver Analytics LP , Deutsche Bank Research 2014 Colombia Peru Chile Mexico Figure 2: Deutsche Bank forecasts: Latin America (% yoy, unless stated) Real GDP growth Private consumption Investment Exports, USD bn Imports, USD bn CPI Industrial production Unemployment, % Fiscal balance, % of GDP EFTA01476077 CA balance, % of GDP -2.5 -0.8 -0.7 -5.7 -0.1 -0.5 -2.7 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 0.8 1.2 2.2 2.0 -3.0 934.1 824.8 843.1 881.0 907.8 820.4 822.5 858.7 12.5 15.2 18.8 19.4 -1.3 5.7 -3.2 6.5 -5.2 -2.8 -7.2 -3.0 Source: National authorities, Deutsche Bank Research 0.2 7.6 -5.9 -2.5 2.3 7.7 -5.0 -2.4 EFTA01476078 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Countries' recent investment performances also allow us to identify the most challenging macroeconomic outlooks in the region, led again by Brazil and Argentina, but including also the special case of Chile. In the latter, the combination of worsening external backdrop and controversial reforms has badly affected confidence and investment, but this effect should be partly temporary in nature, as policy uncertainties are expected to fade, and macro policy is actively helping the recovery in confidence and growth. The suboptimal investment performance is also a good indicator of the need for a second round of reforms in the region. Unfortunately Mexico has been the only country to show a clear determination to push for reforms in a couple of specific areas, particularly in the energy sector. By contrast, in Argentina, Brazil, and in particular in Venezuela, there has been an increasing intervention of some form of state capitalism, with expanding governments, increasing trade protectionism, and economic controls. This appears to explain the observed characteristics of the recent slowdown in the region, particularly visible in the industrial sector, and in countries reporting significant increases in unit labor costs, typical of a middle income malaise. In this regard, recent presidential elections in Argentina provide room for hope The new administration is expected to introduce corrective policies for existing macro-imbalances, while bringing Argentina back to international markets after a likely resolution of the pending holdouts case. Similarly, a mid-term election in Venezuela could bring a more balanced policy making, although the risk of a power vacuum should not be disregarded. By contrast, ongoing political instability in Brazil is likely to remain a big burden for fiscal adjustment and economic performance at least in 2016. A warranted fiscal adjustment has been announced, and steps are being taken to reestablish much needed policy credibility, but President Rousseff's conviction and power to support these policies remain major question marks. Low external debt is a plus but fiscal dynamics could worsen fast The last several years of ultra-low global interest rates have been a bonus for emerging countries and a likely rise in US rates has the potential to create further turbulence in capital flows. Similarly, the recent decline in commodity prices might prove too strong a test to external balances in producer countries. However, low levels of hard currency debt, with Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Mexico being actually creditors of the world economy, provide an exceptional buffer this time around. Expectations for slow-motion rate normalization in the US are another blessing for emerging economies in this cycle. EFTA01476079 This notwithstanding, public debt dynamics show that countries like Brazil, Venezuela, and Colombia might face significant increases in their debt levels if they fail to reduce their large primary deficits. Furthermore, at current oil prices, external conditions in Venezuela remain unsustainable, as a low level of reserves barely covers the projected balance of payment deficit of a single year under the status quo. Besides, a public debt restructuring appears difficult to avoid, with the government being harshly constrained politically by a protracted recession with inflation. Gustavo Canonero, (1) 212 250 7530 Figure 3: Public debt dynamics turning fragile for some countries Source: IMF, Deutsche Bank Research Figure 4: Deutsche Bank forecasts: (% yoy, unless stated) Argentina GDP CPI Brazil Chile -1.5 0.1 -3.7 -2.4 6.3 9.0 1.9 4.4 2.1 4.4 3.0 4.9 2.3 2.5 Peru 2.8 3.5 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 1.0 -0.1 3.9 38.6 27.9 37.3 23.6 CA bal., % GDP -1.7 -2.3 -2.4 -2.3 GDP CPI 8.5 2.2 3.6 2.8 6.0 2.7 3.1 EFTA01476080 3.4 3.8 CA bal., % GDP -4.3 -3.5 -1.8 -1.9 GDP CPI Colombia GDP CPI Mexico GDP CPI CA bal., % GDP -1.2 -0.7 -1.3 -0.9 4.6 2.9 CA bal., % GDP -5.2 -6.2 -5.9 -5.1 2.3 4.0 CA bal., % GDP -2.3 -2.5 -2.7 -2.9 GDP CPI 2.4 3.2 Venezuela GDP CPI 1.0 6.2 2.7 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.4 4.2 3.3 CA bal., % GDP -4.0 -3.6 -3.3 -2.5 -3.4 -9.7 -7.6 -3.2 62.0 120.0 175.0 250.0 4.6 -0.3 -0.9 CA bal., % GDP Source: National authorities, Deutsche Bank Research 0.2 Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 41 EFTA01476081 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Bond Market Strategy: Peak policy divergence IIThe divergence between US and European monetary policy may have peaked. Our year-end forecasts have 10Y Bund at 1.1% and 10Y UST at 502t. In Europe, absent an external shock, the market is likely to focus in H2 on the prospects of the ECB discussing (but not implementing) taper. The urve should steepen as the front-end should remain anchored. 1 In the US, the terminal rate priced by the market is arguably too low. However, the hikes priced for 2016 appear close to fair given the downside risks to core PCE due to the lagged impact of the USD. IIThere are several key risks to this outlook: the policy response in China, oil prices, fiscal and regulatory policies, the US credit cycle and (geo) political risks. Peak policy divergence The end of 2015 was marked by the unusual combination of the Fed likely to tighten policy, while the ECB delivered additional easing (albeit below heightened expectations). There should be some partial policy convergence in 2016. Absent an external shock, conditions could be in place for the ECB to discuss (but not implement) tapering its asset purchase programme in the second half of the year. In the US, the market is close to pricing secular stagnation leaving room for an upward repricing of the terminal rate. However, the pace of rate hikes priced in 2016 looks close to fair given the lagged impact of the USD and commodity prices on core PCE. As a result, we expect yields to remain close to or even below the forwards initially before repricing higher later in the year as (a) the market focuses on the reassessment of the ECB's policy, (b) the factors driving the downside pressures on Core PCE in the US dissipate and (c) the Fed potentially opens the door for a tapering of its reinvestment policy. ECB: From QE quasi-infinity to taper tantrum The final ECB meeting of 2015 disappointed overly hyped market expectations but nonetheless added more stimulus. Is this last round of ECB easing just one of many more to come as Europe is turning Japanese? A Japanese-type outcome can be defined as a situation in which private sector deleveraging is slow and is not accommodated by a more aggressive policy response. As a result, the credit impulse (i.e. the pace of deleveraging) never reverses and domestic demand remains under pressure. Ultimately, the economy converges to a situation in which the output gap widens, inflation is negative and real rates are too high. None of that is happening in Europe. In fact, on most of EFTA01476082 the key metrics, Europe resembles more the US with a —3-year lag than Japan in the 1990s. Indeed, as can be seen below3 , Europe went through a two-step deleveraging process, but ultimately credit growth turned negative and the pace of deleveraging peaked mid-2013 three years after the US (see Figure 1) To accommodate the deleveraging process, the ECB engineered negative 10Y real rates in 2015 vs. 2012 for the Fed (see Figure 2.) Moreover, ECB policy also led to a more aggressive currency devaluation of more than 15% in real effective terms in 2015 vs. less than 10% achieved for the USD in early 2011 (see Figure 3). 3 In the analysis we compare in event time the behavior of key financial and economic variables in the US and Europe during this crisis and Japan in the 1990s. The reference time t=0 is defined as the peak in credit growth (Q4-07 for the US and Europe and Q1-90 for Japan). Page 42 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476083 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Figure 1: Europe more resembles the US with a 3Y lag when considering credit... Japan Euro area Rolling 4Q private sector borrowing, % of GDP (MFI loans to the private sector for the euro area) 10 15 20 25 30 -5 0 5 -10 -6 -2 2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 34 No. of quarters from peak: Japan Q1-90, Euro area and US Q4-07 Vertical lines indicate the peak in deleveraging in US and EA Source: : Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg Finance LP, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Deutsche Bank Research US -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Figure 2: _and long term real rate dynamics Japan Euro area US Long term real rate (10Y rate- GDP deflator) , % 100 110 120 130 140 150 Temporary impact of the 1997 VAT hike -20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 No. of quarters from peak: Japan Q1-90, Euro area and US Q4-07 Vertical lines indicate the peaks in easing for long term real rates Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg EFTA01476084 Finance LP, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Eurostat, BEA, CAO Similarly, the output gap has mirrored the dynamics of credit, as the unemployment rate peaked mid-2013 in the euro area vs. late 2009 in the US. At the same time, the GDP deflator has remained around 1% in Europe and is at a similar level to the US. Thus, unlike Japan, the European economy is in a situation in which the deleveraging of the private sector is complete, the output gap is declining, the GDP deflator is positive, real rates are negative and the currency is cheap. If Europe is —3 years behind the US, the latest round of ECB easing would mirror the QE3/4 easing of the Fed at the end of 2012. Even though the incremental easing appears modest, the monthly pace of purchases in Europe was already exceeding (duration adjusted and as % of GDP) the pace of QE infinity. Also, this simple analogy would suggest that sometime in the second half of 2016, the focus will turn to when the ECB could indicate a tapering of its purchases. This conclusion is backed up by the evolution of the output gap. If the unemployment rate declines in 2016 at the same pace as it did in 2015, it will be close to 10% in Q4-16, i.e. about 3% above the pre-crisis level. When both the Fed pre-announced tapering in 2013, and the ECB hiked in 2011, the unemployment rate was at similar levels relative to pre-crisis (see Figure 4) Also, by the end of next year, our economists expect core inflation to be in a 1.25-1.45% range, only about 0.2% lower than the pre-crisis average (see Figure 5). Figure 4: End of 2016, the unemployment rate should be at the level at which the Fed pre-announced tapering mid 2013 Japan -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Unemployment rate (0,% t=0) Euro area US -16 -12 -8 -404812162024283236 No. of quarters from trough: Japan 01-90, Euro area and US Q4-07 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Eurostat, BEA, BLS, CAO, MIC 0 5 0.7 EFTA01476085 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 Figure 5: Core inflation in Europe should be close to its pre-crisis average by the end of 2016 Core HICP %yoy Forecasts Pre-crisis average 80 90 -20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 No. of quarters from peak: Japan Q1-90, Euro area and US Q4-07 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg Finance LP, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, eurostat, BEA, CAD Figure 3: Europe benefits from a sharper currency depreciation than the US a few years ago Japan Euro area REER (100 at t=0) US 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Eurostat Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 43 EFTA01476086 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity From a market perspective, a potential tapering discussion will help support a partial normalization of core euro rates sometime next year. The timing of the repricing could depend on several factors, including the risk from EM countries and oil prices, which we discuss below. From a pure domestic perspective though, the dynamics of inflation and the unemployment rate would suggest a repricing in the second half of the year. Fed: Irregular tightening Now that a December hike seems likely, the market shifted its focus on the pace and terminal rate of this hiking cycle. It is now generally accepted that the rate cycle will be shallower than the most recent tightening cycles. Currently the market is pricing that the neutral real rate (estimated as 4Y1Y OIS minus 2%) will remain close to zero. One side of the argument for low neutral real rates is a structurally lower level of productivity (the secular stagnation argument). Productivity has indeed been close to historical lows during this recovery. However, the uptick in real wages since the trough of the recession would suggest that there could be some upside to productivity from these levels. This would be particularly the case if wages do follow the leading indicators, which suggest some improvement towards 2 5% yoy on a nominal basis (around 1% in real terms based on current core PCE forecasts). Figure 6: Productivity at historical low levels, but the improvement in real wages suggests some upside risks Real output per hour, 12q MA (lhs) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 % yoy Real wage growth, 8q ahead (rhs) % yoy -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 EFTA01476087 85 91 97 03 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, BLS, BEA, NBER 09 15 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, BLS Others (including the Fed) argue that real rates have been low because of headwinds, namely tight fiscal policy, tighter regulation and credit supply, weaker demand for credit due to balance sheet repair and general macro uncertainty (fiscal cliff, Europe, China etc...). For Chair Yellen, we expect the normalization of policy will be driven not by an increase in GDP growth, but rather by the fact that the neutral real rate will drift up. The improvement in lending conditions and the marginally more supportive fiscal policy would also argue for some upside risks for the neutral rate. Irrespective of which side proves to be correct (within our own research team, the views are mixed), given that the market is de-facto pricing secular stagnation, the risks are to the upside in yields. Figure 7: There is scope for a limited normalization of wages % yoy 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 Implied by Quits and Part Time ECI (% yoy) Page 44 Deutsche Bank AG/London Sep-2001 Sep-2003 Sep-2005 Sep-2007 Sep-2009 Sep-2011 Sep-2013 Sep-2015 EFTA01476088 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Figure 8: Improvement in credit conditions would support some improvement in the short-term neutral real rate Neutral real rate implied by Fed Laubach/Williams model (lhs) -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 SLO cumulative supply conditions and demand conditions for mortgages (rhs) 100 200 300 400 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 Figure 9: Easier fiscal policy should also support some improvement in the short-term neutral real rate -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 EFTA01476089 5.5 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Federal Reserve 93 94 95 96 98 99 00 01 03 04 05 06 08 09 10 11 13 14 15 Neutral rate from Laubach Williams model US fiscal drag (CBO estimate, rhs) Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Federal Reserve, CBO Even if the risks are geared towards a higher terminal rate, the pace of tightening may be uneven at least initially. On the one hand, there is scope for an upward surprise to the forthcoming ECI wage data. On the other hand, we continue to see downside risks to the FOMC's core PCE projections for next year, primarily on the back of the lagged impact of the USD strength and commodity weakness on core goods PCE inflation. Figure 10: DB core PCE projections below FOMC projections at the end of 2016 Core PCE 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 % yoy DB forecasts, Nov-15 to Dec-16 2016 FOMC projection for core PCE at 1.7 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Bloomberg Finance LP, Haver Analytics LP, FOMC 2016 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, BLS, Federal Reserve, Haver Analytics LP EFTA01476090 As the gap between the market and the dovish centre of the committee and our economists' expectations (three hikes for 2016) is relatively small, it is difficult to argue for a much faster pace of rate hikes for next year. However, once the downside risks to inflation are reflected in the FOMC forecasts (presumably sometime in H1), there is a case for rebuilding some risk premium in the curve further out. This would be exacerbated if the Fed initiates its tapering of reinvestment in H2 as expected by our economists. This repricing would also coincide with the market focusing on potential tapering signals from the ECB. Figure 11: Downside risks to core PCE are due to expected weakness in core goods on the back of the temporary impact of USD strength Core goods inflation (lhs) % yoy USD TWI, 20 months lead (rhs) % yoy -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 45 Jun-93 Sep-94 Dec-95 Mar-97 Jun-98 Sep-99 Dec-00 Mar-02 Jun-03 Sep-04 EFTA01476091 Dec -05 Mar -07 Jun-08 Sep -09 Dec -10 Mar -12 Jun-13 Sep -14 Dec -15 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EFTA01476092 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Back-end and swap spreads convergence The rationale outlined above would be consistent with a possible underperformance of the European back-end relative to the US. This macro assessment is supported by valuation arguments. Long-term valuation arguments which ignore flow effects such as QE suggest a significant richness of 5Y5Y rates in Europe relative to the US. Accounting for flows, the relative richness is less clear. The corollary however is that any pricing out of flow effect should lead to an underpeformance of European fixed income in the long end of the curve. At the same time, the structural drivers of the cheapness of swap spreads in the US are likely to become more prominent in Europe. This should also lead to a relative cheapening of the long end of the German curve vs. USTs. Figure 12: 5Y5Y adjusted risk premium (which ignores flow effects) indicate some scope for underperformance of European fixed income -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 US vs. Germany spread of adjusted 5Y5Y BRP (lhs) Subsequent 1Y chge in USD vs EUR 5Y5Y spread (rhs) -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1991199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Bloomberg Finance LP, Federal Reserve, ECB, EFTA01476093 Consensus Economics Figure 13: Swap spreads have diverged significantly in the US vs. Germany (cheapening of long UST bonds) bps 10 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 Dec-2009 Dec-2010 Dec-2011 Dec-2012 Dec-2013 Dec-2014 Dec-2015 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg Finance LP„ Federal Reserve, ECB Spread between UST 30Y ASW and German 30Y ASW Key risks to the outlook: As always, there are important risks to this outlook. These include external risks such as China and the dynamics of oil prices, but also domestic risks such as a change in the fiscal policy outlook, political risks in Europe or a turn in the US credit cycle. We summarise the key risks below. China: We argued earlier this year that China rather than Europe was the main disinflationary source at the global level. In contrast to Europe, credit growth remains relatively high, long-term real rates are above 4%, the GDP deflator is in negative territory and the currency has appreciated close to 30% and is now overvalued on some metrics. Our economists are positive on the short-term outlook for growth and China's ability/desire to maintain a relatively stable currency. However, they also recognize the secular decline in growth. Putting it all together, China could continue to exert background disinflationary pressures, but without creating a significant financial shock. Relative to this scenario, the risks would come from a more aggressive adjustment and/or policy response. For instance, a more aggressive devaluation would increase the disinflationary pressures that would be exported to the rest of the world, while enabling a rebuild of FX reserves. Both factors would contribute to a flattening of the curve and would likely lead to more dovish ECB and Fed. Conversely, a more aggressive domestic easing (fiscal and monetary policy) while maintaining the currency stable is likely to reduce disinflationary forces while at the same time putting more pressure on FX reserves. Both factors would lead to steeper core curves. Page 46 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476094 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Figure 14: Chinese REER dynamics tend to more closely mirror the Japanese experience Japan 100 110 120 130 140 150 80 90 -20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 No. of quarters from peak: Japan Q1-90, Euro area and US Q4-07, China Q4-09 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg Finance LP, BIS, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, ECB, PBoC, CNBS, Eurostat, BEA Euro area REER (100 at t=0) US China -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 Figure 15: Long-term real rates have also increased thanks to a falling deflator Japan (lhs) Euro area (lhs) US (lhs) Long term real rate (10Y rate- GDP deflator) China (rhs) Temporary Impact of the 1997 VAT hike 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 No. of quarters from peak: Japan Q1-90, Euro area and US Q4-07, China Q1-09 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Bloomberg Finance LP, BIS, Bank of Japan, EFTA01476095 Federal Reserve, ECB, PBoC, CNBS, Eurostat, BEA Oil: Oil prices are exerting a significant impact on global bond markets. First, there is an obvious and very strong correlation between oil prices and the inflation risk premium and the term premium. Second, the ECB has now introduced a strong link between oil prices and monetary policy. The ECB is primarily concerned about a disanchoring of inflation expectations, i.e. the risk that persistently low spot inflation feeds into inflation expectations. In that respect, the ECB is less focused on why spot inflation is low (supply or demand factors, temporary or permanent) and inclined to react if spot inflation remains too low for too long. Given that spot inflation is itself largely determined by oil prices, there is an obvious link between the latter and the ECB's policy decisions. Our oil strategists see potential downside risks to oil prices in the short term, but are more positive for the medium-term outlook from a supply/demand perspective. The turn in oil prices, when it occurs, is likely to signal both a normalization of the term premium in bond markets and underperformance of European fixed income. Conversely, continued decline in oil prices would delay any prospects of an ECB tapering and further slow the pace of rate hikes in the US. Fiscal and regulatory policies: The past few years have been marked by a policy mix which was relying on monetary policy to (over?) compensate for tighter fiscal and regulatory policies. While the regulatory pressures remain strong, there has been a shift in the fiscal outlook. Indeed, not only have fiscal policies in Europe and the US turned neutral, but there are arguably some upside risks over the next couple of years. In the US, the latest budget agreement has incorporated a small fiscal stimulus. The upcoming presidential election could also open the way for a more constructive dynamics between Congress and the Presidency. In Europe, the refugee crisis and the renewed focus on security will also skew the risks towards more fiscal easing, above and beyond what is recognized in the EC's forecasts. The loosening of fiscal policy is likely to be relatively limited in the short term. However, from a medium-term perspective, a shift in fiscal policy would be an important driver behind a reassessment of monetary policy both in the US and Europe. US credit cycle: Under some metrics, the US credit cycle is already quite mature. Credit growth as percentage of GDP has recently averaged 7.5%, in the range seen in the late 1990s (6-10%) prior to the 04-07 credit bubble (1015%). From this perspective, there are no signs of excess in aggregate, but no clear room for improvement either. Given the significant cumulative accumulation of inflows into specialized credit bond funds over the last few EFTA01476096 years, there is a clear risk that the policy tightening leads to an unwind of these inflows, which would put pressure on credit spreads and in turn could lead to a decline in credit growth. This could prompt the Fed to slow the tightening process and in an extreme scenario reverse it. Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 47 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 EFTA01476097 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Figure 16: Private sector credit growth back to pre-credit bubble levels Net borrowing of the non-financial private sector 10 15 20 -10 -5 0 5 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics LP, Federal Reserve, BEA % of GDP, saar Figure 17: Cumulative inflows into US funds since the Euro area debt crisis -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% US IG US Equities US Govt bonds US High Yield US MM Jun-2010 Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Jun-2015 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, EPFR (Geo) Politics: The Middle East will likely remain, directly or indirectly, an important source of (geo) political risk. One direct effect would be via the rebuilding of risk premium in the oil market (with the associated implications on inflation and bond markets). An indirect political risk would manifest itself in terms of the debate around the handling of the refugee crisis, with associated implications on border controls and by extension the functioning of the single market. This could support anti-EU sentiment in general and be particularly relevant in the UK ahead of the EU referendum. Francis Yared, (44) 20 7545 4017 Jerome Saragoussi, +1(212)250-3529 Abhishek Singhania, (44) 20 7547 4458 Dominic Konstam, (1) 212 250 9753 EFTA01476098 Stuart Sparks, (1) 212 250 0332 Page 48 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476099 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity US Credit Strategy: US credit feels the pressure of high commodity exposure US credit markets have made a U-turn midway through 2015, as doubts began to surface with respect to issuer fundamentals, exposure to commodities and EM, and more recently even certain developed market names. The cavalier attitude that energy sector problems will remain contained has also seen defectors as oil prices set new lows during the course of the year and bonds came under even more pressure. At the same time, the expected pickup in consumer spending still takes time to materialize. The US credit market reflects a much more realistic view of a potential for rising credit losses from here, with spreads in both HY and IG being at 3- to 4year wides. Naturally, we like these levels better that those prevailing just a few months ago, and unless those credit losses start materializing soon, the market could be positioned for a strong rebound. Evidence we look at suggests that this is not the most likely outcome just yet, however. At the core of our view is that the epicenter of this cycle will be in commodities and EM. These areas continued to show few signs of imminent turnaround at the time of this writing. A McKinsey study earlier this year estimated total of new debt created since 2007 at $50trin, capturing all global sovereigns, corporates, and consumers. Much of it was raised with a belief in the commodity super-cycle. Today, we know that such a belief was wrong, and so it would only be logical to assume that meaningful debt write-downs are inevitable. The question really is whether they remain limited to commodity/- EM areas, or spill over to a wider set of sectors. We see three primary risks to the upside from here. The first one, least predictable but most relevant, is the Chinese economy turning the corner. The second, somewhat evident, is equities continuing to diverge in the face of commodity meltdown. The third, perhaps the most obvious, is more stimulus from central banks, at least outside the US. We discuss each of these in greater detail in our full year-ahead publication to be released soon. That they are listed here as risks, and not base case, gives readers a preview as to our assessment of their probabilities. Overall, we expect the push-and-pull to continue, with those seeking more yield and those seeing signs of a cycle turn. We expect variable degrees of success to be claimed by each side at different points over the course of 2016 We find ourselves believing in moderate increases in ex-energy defaults to 3.2% next year, up from 1.9% today, and a continued pressure on HY spreads, where USD DM ex-energy index could widen by about 100bp. Higher vulnerability of HY makes IG a more attractive alternative, in our eyes, especially in light of its current levels; we expect IG to widen only by about EFTA01476100 10bps from here, or well inside of a normal 1:4 relationship to HY. European credit should remain better bid than the US, and loans should continue to quietly outperform HY, just like both of them did in 2015. We are not viewing 2-3 hikes by the Fed as being problematic to credit. In our opinion, their ability to hike multiple times would be proof that credit tightening concerns were overblown. Also critical to our positive outlook on IG is the continued demand for 'safe yield' from overseas investors, particularly those in Asia. Non-U.S. investors absorbed roughly one-third of the net supply of U.S. issuer bonds in 2015 in a great rotation to developed-market debt markets, in flows that appeared to favor financial bonds, single-A corporates and 5-year and 30-year paper. The laggard, 10-year 666s, look cheap on a relative basis and we like owning these bonds outright or through 2slOs flatteners. Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 49 EFTA01476101 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity The energy and materials sectors trade historically cheap to trailing fundamentals, although their prospects are tied heavily to the willingness of management teams to pare back bloated capital spending budgets that now run at double the rate of EBITDA. We recommend avoiding sectors exposed to the energy sector's coming capital expenditure declines, such as capital goods. Trends in non-financial issuer quality outside the energy sector are also worrisome, leading us to revise our view on the relative performance of senior US bank paper, which we think can now trade to spread parity with qualityand duration-matched non-financials. Oleg Melentyev, (1)212 250 6779 Daniel Sorid, (1)212 250 1407 Page 50 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476102 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity European Credit Strategy: To follow the US or march to its own beat? Credit markets do have a late cycle feel about them but it will likely make a big difference to performance over the next 12 months if this cycle ends in 2016 or extends until at least 2017. Fundamentals — US deteriorating, Europe steadier but past peak As Oleg Melentyev has alluded to in his US section, US credit quality has deteriorated. However Europe credit quality remains much more stable. Figure 1: US IG total and net leverage Total Leverage 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 Net (floored at $0) Net Leverage ex-Energy/Metals Figure 2: US HY total and net leverage Total Leverage ex Energy/Mining 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Deutsche Bank Research Source: Deutsche Bank Research In Europe there are sign that earnings have been drifting lower but debt accumulation has been nowhere near as aggressive as in the US market thus helping the ratios. European credit has far less exposure to the Energy and Materials sectors, which has helped create some of the divergence. Figure 3: Euro IG (left) and HY (right) credit fundamentals 1 0 1.2 1.4 EFTA01476103 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2000 2002 Net Debt/EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA/Interest (RHS) 10 11 12 6 7 8 9 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2005 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Bloomberg Finance LP Another reason for diverging fundamentals has been corporate activity. US M&A has risen much more sharply than in Europe. For share buybacks the divergence between the US and Europe is even more extreme. Europe has actually seen less in buybacks in 2015 than what was seen over the past decade whereas the US volume remains historically high even if not quite reaching peak levels. Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 51 Net Debt/EBITDA EBITDA/Interest Net Leverage 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 EFTA01476104 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Figure 4: US and European M&A activity (left) and share buybacks (right) 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 500 0 US Acquirer WE Acquirer 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 US (S&P 500) Europe (Stoxx 600) Data for 2015 up to the end of November Source: Deutsche Bank Research. Overall these charts show that Europe is some way behind the US in terms of a deteriorating credit cycle. As such even if US credit widens further, it's possible that European credit can continue to outperform. We would be mildly bullish European credit and would be more aggressive if we saw some stabilization in the US credit market. Valuations Credit spreads globally are all wider than their 50th percentile observation through history with most rating bands having been tighter 60-80% of the time. Figure 5: Spread percentile rank — Current vs. YE 2013 and 2014 Wide Spread EUR Non-Fin HY B (13yrs) USD Fin Sen (17yrs) EUR Non-Fin HY CCC (13yrs) GBP Fin Sen (17yrs) EUR Non-Fin HY BB (13yrs) EUR Non-Fin BBB (16yrs) GBP Non-Fin BBB (17yrs) USD Non-Fin A (17yrs) GBP Fin Sub (17yrs) EUR Fin Sub (17yrs) USD Fin Sub (17yrs) EUR Fin Sen (17yrs) USD Non-Fin BBB (17yrs) GBP Non-Fin AA (17yrs) USD Non-Fin AA (17yrs) USD Corp HY BB (16yrs) GBP Non-Fin A (17yrs) EFTA01476105 USD Corp HY CCC (13yrs) EUR Non-Fin AA (17yrs) USD Corp HY B (16yrs) EUR Non-Fin A (17yrs) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Current Rank Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Mark-it Group The only caveat to this analysis is that the widest 10-15% of observations usually sees credit spreads gap wider as a recession hits. We are very close to the edge of pricing in a mild recession in global credit spreads. If we avoid it in 2016, spreads look very attractive but given that we're probably late cycle in the US there are risks at this stage to trying to eke out carry for another 12 months. On balance we're mildly bullish European credit due to being less late cycle than the US and due to valuations. Jim Reid, (44) 20 754 72943 Nick Burns, (44) 20 754 71970 Rank (31 Dec 2014) Rank (31 Dec 2013) Tight Spread Page 52 Deutsche Bank AG/London 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 01/01/2001 01/01/2002 01/01/2003 01/01/2004 01/01/2005 01/01/2006 01/01/2007 01/01/2008 01/01/2009 01/01/2010 01/01/2011 01/01/2012 EFTA01476106 01/01/2013 01/01/2014 01/01/2015 EFTA01476107 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity US Equity Strategy: Still-low treasury yields despite Fed hikes to boost S&P PE — Heavy tilts to Health Care & Tech IIWe recently cut 2016E S&P EPS by $3 to $125 on revised assumptions of even lower oil prices and a stronger dollar, but this is still about 5% EPS growth from 2015. We believe an 18x trailing PE is fair provided the climb in Treasury yields is moderate as the Fed hikes. Thus, S&P PE expansion should provide an additional few percent upside. Our S&P targets are 2100 for 2015 end and 2250 for 2016 end or up 5-10%. II2015E S&P EPS is $119, up 0.5% despite sales down 4%, buoyed by net margins climbing to a record high and about 1.5% share shrink. Ex. Energy & Financials, as much less y/y litigation expense at Banks, 2015 S&P EPS was up 6% or 10% ex. 4% FX drag. Growth led by Health Care and big consumer oriented Tech firms. We expect growth to slow at these two S&P segments, but remain key growth drivers. II2016E S&P EPS of $125 is up 5% on 4% sales growth, flat margins and 1% share shrink. Sales should turn positive in 2016 as commodity and currency drags diminish and sales better connects with US GDP. We assume WTI oil averages $55/bbl in 2016 and that DXY averages 100 with euro at $1.05 within DXY. This is a 1.5% FX drag to sales vs. 4% in 2015. If euro is $0.95 then drag is 2.5%, if DXY is 110 then 4%. IISales growth and PE should be the main drivers of performance in 2016. But few sectors offer both strong sales growth and sizable PE upside. Health Care does and should outperform in 2016 on sales-driven superior EPS growth and a higher PE. Health Care is the biggest and fastestgrowing part of US consumer spending. We're excited about the supply of life-enhancing products and the demographic 'destiny' of greater demand. Health Care is cheaper than the S&P, which is very unusual, despite a superior growth profile, balance sheets and less cyclicality. The political risks seem rather exaggerated beyond Managed Care. IIOur 2250 S&P target or 18x trailing 2016E S&P EPS is a PE 10-15% above history and highest on S&P EPS post a cyclical recovery other than the late 1990s. But we believe it's fair given persistently low long-term real interest rates. If Fed Funds and 10yr Treasury yields rise slowly and plateau around 2% and 3.0-3.5% (10yr TIPS yield <1.5%) in late 2017, then an 18x trailing PE looks fair on normalized S&P EPS — about 15x for Financials & Energy and 20x aggregate profits of other sectors. This assumes a fair real return on long-term S&P investment of 5.5%. A fair PE is 1/real CoE when future real EPS growth + dividend yield equals the real CoE. Health Care and Tech are why we are bullish on the S&P 500 for 2016. Energy and Industrials worry us a great deal. Most of the rest of the market, both the S&P and the Russell 2000, seem fully valued except a few big Banks, Utilities, Airlines, and some of our specific stock picks. EFTA01476108 Fortunately, Health Care and Tech represent 35% of the S&P 500. These two sectors dominate Growth style indices and have been outperformers since 2012. We advise sticking with sector and style strength and tilting heavily toward Heath Care and Tech, about 45% of a US equity portfolio, with a material allocation to Utilities of about 5%. IIWe do not think current conditions represent early cycle Fed hiking and we suggest that investors throw out their early-cycle playbooks. However, we also do not believe that a recession looms or that S&P profits will fall again in 2016 or that the S&P will suffer a bear market or a sharp correction. That said, here are five warnings signs to monitor of the cycle or the stock market being in jeopardy of rolling: Deutsche Bank AG/London Figure 2: Earnings weights of Tech & Health Care vs. Energy & Financials 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5 Tech + Health Care Energy + Financials Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Compustat, S&P Earnings weights of Tech & Health Care vs. Energy & Financials S&P EPS estimates & targets: 2015E S&P EPS: $119 2015 end S&P target: 2100 2016E S&P EPS: $125 2016 end S&P target: 2250 Figure 1: S&P 500 Trailing PE and implied ERP 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 Recession Implied ERP (rhs) Avg ERP ex 1975-82 = 3.5% Trailing PE (lhs) EFTA01476109 Avg ERP = 4% Avg PE = 15.9 Red dot shows implied ERP on 10yr TIPS yield of 1.5% instead of 0.28% currently Source: Deutsche Bank Research, IBES, S&P Overstated EPS from inflation distortions Low offered ERP contributes to crash Long-term growth optimism Return to normal 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Page 53 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 EFTA01476110 EFTA01476111 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity 1. Dollar: Dollar strength challenged GDP and especially S&P EPS and performance all of 2015. It is important that any further dollar gains be very slow and not materially exceed 5% in 2016 from DXY —100 levels. 2. Unemployment and Unit Labor Costs: If unemployment falls quickly from 5.0% today despite still-slow growth, on less participation, then Fed hikes might exceed our 1% expectation at 2016 end. It's important that unit labor costs don't jump over 2%. Higher wage growth is great if funded by better productivity, but if unit labor costs approach 3%, Treasury yields could jump over 3% even if US growth stays slow. 3. Yield Curve: Historically, a flat or inverted curve is very cautionary. The curve remains steep, but with exceptionally low Fed Funds rates. If 10yr yields fall well under 2% as Fed hikes we'd likely be concerned. 4. Credit costs: Conditions at high yield credit markets are concerning, but we are encouraged by very low loan losses at banks. 5. Fiscal conditions: US fiscal conditions are healthy, but politically driven tax hikes or government disruptions or broad spending cuts are a risk. Key to 2016 S&P upside: Good S&P sales growth resumes with yields still low 2015 was a lost year of S&P EPS growth owing to exceptional headwinds from the surge in the dollar and collapse in oil prices as well as weak manufacturing, capex and exports. However, growth was strong at Health Care, parts of Tech and Consumer Discretionary, albeit disappointing at many Retailers given macro tailwinds. Ex. Energy, Financials, Health Care and AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, S&P EPS growth is about 2.5% in 2015. Less currency drag and good growth from Health Care and most of Tech should bring 5% S&P EPS growth in 2016. A third of S&P revenue and 40% of its profits are earned abroad. However, a substantial amount of Tech and Energy foreign earnings is still in dollars. We estimate that roughly 25% of total S&P profits are earned in foreign currencies. Thus, every 10% appreciation in the dollar vs. major currencies hits S&P EPS by 2.5% or $3. In 2016, we see 1.5% or $1.75 of S&P EPS drag or 2.5% drag at Tech and Industrials (including exports), roughly 2% at Staples and Health Care and 1.5% at Consumer Discretionary. Yet Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Tech should still deliver 5%+ sales growth. Only slight growth is likely at Staples and Industrials, about 5% growth at Financials. Energy is a wildcard with 2016 earnings possibly -10% to +30%, but Energy is now a small contributor to total S&P EPS. S&P net margin likely flat with 1% share shrink. Financial shock risk? Dominoes of dollar, oil, corporate credit and S&P 500 The S&P's 2015 broad-based revenue recession and flat non-GAAP S&P EPS has underscored a big risk despite the high likelihood of continued US growth. We believe the worst of the profit recession is behind us for the S&P 500, but if EFTA01476112 the dollar surges 10% or more from current levels (DXY 100 now) in early 2016 upon Fed hikes or other central bank actions, it could cause a sharp correction. A surge in the dollar could cause commodity prices to stay this low or drop further, triggering further declines in high yield corporate bonds and flat to down S&P EPS through 1H16. If the Euro were to average $0.95 in 2016 and DXY nearly 110 with oil prices near or below $40/bbl most of next year, then 2016 S&P EPS would likely be about $120 even with about 2.5% US GDP and 3% global GDP. If this were to occur, the S&P could revisit correction levels under 1900. We don't think this would tip the US economy into a full recession, but it raises the risk and it is clearly not a good scenario for stocks. Such a correction could be deep and long, even without a recession, if the Fed kept hiking despite these hits to markets owing to still-falling unemployment. Figure 4: Strong dollar & weak oil weigh on S&P EPS Index 100 110 120 130 140 150 60 70 80 90 Recession US Dollar Index USD TWI (lhs) WTI Crude (rhs) Source: Deutsche Bank Research, FRB, EIA/WSJ Figure 3: 10yr real treasury yields and inflation breakeven 10yr TIPS (lhs) -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 10yr inflation breakeven (rhs) 1.1 EFTA01476113 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2012 2013 2014 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, FRB 2015 USD/ bbl 100 120 140 20 40 60 80 0 Figure 5: Implied ERP vs Credit spread by sector Implied equity risk premium , % Attractive stocks vs bonds Financials Utilities Health Care Tech Cons. Disc. Cons. Staples Energy 1.0 1.5 2.0 Credit spread, % Source: Deutsche Bank Research, S&P, IBES 2.5 3.0 Industrials Materials Telecom Offered Energy ERP if oil is $65-70/bbl in 2016 2 3 4 5 EFTA01476114 6 7 8 9 Page 54 Deutsche Bank AG/London 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 EFTA01476115 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity We don't think this is likely, but it is a known and material risk. It is for this reason, and also demanding valuations despite this risk, that we stay underweight Energy, Industrials and Materials. We see little upside and lots of downside potential at these three highly global (EM), dollar- and commoditysensitive sectors. Whereas upside at Health Care and Tech is at least as good or most likely better with far less risk. Figure 6: S&P 2016 EPS scenarios Poor global growth (China —5%) A continued profit recession, Foreign Cons Disc Cons Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Tech Materials Telecom Utilities S&P 500 per share Avg oil price Euro Avg FF rate US UE yr end US GDP Global GDP Source: Deutsche Bank Research Sales % Profits % 27% 28% 41% 18% 20% 36% 59% 49% 1% 6% 31% FX A possible upside scenario 2015 2016 25% 28% EFTA01476116 20% 15% 20% 35% 37% 40% 0% 6% 25% 115.5 85.5 45 218 154.5 115 225 30.3 33.5 33.4 1055.7 $119 $47 89 y/y 2016 EPS 128 10.8% 14.39 4.1% 10.01 6.75 60 33.3% 234 168 120 242 34.5 1142 $128 $60 1.10 1.10-1.15 0.2% 0.75% 5.0% 4.7% 2.5% 2.5-3% 3% 3.5% 34 12.2% 32.5 -3.0% 3.3% 7.3% 26.31 8.7% 18.89 4.3% 13.49 7.6% 27.21 3.82 EFTA01476117 3.65 3.88 8.2% 128.39 DB's base case for 2016 S&P EPS 2016 125 87.5 2015 115.5 85.5 45 218 154.5 115 225 30.3 33.5 33.4 1055.7 $119 $47 1.05 2.3% 52 15.6% 230 165 117 239 32.5 32.5 34.5 1115 $125 $55 1.05 0.2% 0.50% 5.0% 2.5% -2.5% 3% -3.0% 4.7% y/y 2016 EPS 8.2% 14.05 9.84 5.85 5.5% 25.86 6.8% 18.55 1.7% 13.15 6.2% 26.87 7.3% -3.0% 3.3% EFTA01476118 5.6% 125.35 but decent US and global GDP growth y/y 2016 EPS 2015 115.5 85.5 45 218 3.65 3.65 3.88 154.5 115 225 30.3 33.5 33.4 2016 125 85.5 230 161 232 34.5 8.2% 14.05 0.0% 30 -33.3% 9.61 3.37 5.5% 25.86 4.2% 18.10 105 -8.7% 11.80 3.1% 26.08 3.26 3.65 3.88 1055 7 1064.5 $119 $47 1.05 $40 0.90 0.2% 0.50% 5.0% 4.7% 2.5% -2.5% 3% -3.0% 0.8% 119.68 $120 29 -4.3% 32.5 -3.0% EFTA01476119 3.3% yet 2%+ US growth with low credit costs Tight US labor mkt, Fed hikes >1% in 2016 Global recession and flat US GDP y/y 2016 EPS 2015 115.5 85.5 45 218 154.5 115 225 30.3 33.5 33.4 1055.7 $119 $47 1.05 0.2% 5.0% 2016 122 85 233 160 225 5.6% 13.72 -0.6% 30 -33.3% 9.56 3.37 6.7% 26.16 3.6% 17.99 100 -13.0% 11.24 0.0% 25.30 2.92 3.60 3.82 26 -14.2% -4.5% 1.8% 32 34 1046.7 $118 $40 0.90 1.2% 4.4% 2.5% 2.25% EFTA01476120 3% 2.5% -0.9% 117.68 2015 115.5 85.5 45 218 154.5 115 225 30.3 33.5 33.4 1055 7 $119 $47 1.05 2016 y/y 2016 EPS 110 -4.8% 12.37 83 -2.9% 20 -55.6% 210 -3.7% 23.61 2.3% 17.76 158 90 -21.7% 10.12 210 -6.7% 23.61 23 -24.1% 30 -10.4% 32.5 -2.7% 966.5 -8.4% 108.66 $109 $35 0.85 0.2% 0.25% 5.0% 2.5% 3% 6.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.59 3.37 3.65 9.33 2.25 Figure 7: Our intrinsic valuation model S&P 500 Capi tal ized EPS Valuat ion Deutsche Bank's 2015E S&P 500 EPS DB's "normal 2015E" S&P 500 EPS EFTA01476121 "Normal 2015E" EPS / 2015E EPS Accounting quality adjustment to pro forma EPS Normal 2015E S&P 500 EPS fai r to capi tal ize Key principle: steady-state value = normal EPS / real CoE S&P 500 EPS Capitalization Valuation Normal EPS / (real CoE - (EM/payout) - EM): S&P 500 intrinsic value at 2015 start S&P 500 int rinsic value at 2015 end Implied fair fwd PE in early 2015 on 2015E $119 EPS Implied fair trailing PE at 2015 end on 2015E $119 EPS Normal EPS / (real CoE-value added EPS growth) S&P 500 Dividend Discount Model S&P 500 Long- term EPS & DPS Growth $119 Deutsche Bank's 2015E S&P 500 DPS 2015E dividend payout ratio $122 DB's "normal 2015E" S&P 500 DPS 103% Normal dividend payout ratio -$12.00 EPS directed to net share repurchases Normal share repurchase payout ratio $110 Total payout of S&P 500 EPS Total payout rate S&P 500 DPS Discount Model Normal DPS / (nominal CoE - DPS growth): 2000 S&P 500 intrinsic value at 2015 start 2109 S&P 500 intrinsic value at 2015 end 16.8 17.7 Implied fair forward yield on 2015E DPS of $41.0 Implied fair trailing yield on 2015E DPS of $41.0 2000 DPS discount model using true DPS (all payout) $41.00 Deutsche Bank's 2015E S&P 500 aggregate ROE 34% 2014 end S&P 500 book value per share $41.00 DB's "normal 2015E" S&P 500 aggregate ROE 37% S&P 500 Cost of Equ i ty & Fai r Book Mu 1 t iple 15.9% Fair long-term nominal return on S&P 500 index $750 Components of estimated fair S&P 500 return: 14.7% + Long-term real risk free interest rate + Long-term fair S&P 500 equity risk premium* S&P 500 EPS retained for t rue reinvestment 39% = Long- term real S&P 500 cost of equ i ty $26.50 Est imated ROE on reinvested S&P 500 EPS 7.50% + Long-term inflation forecast 24% Economic margin (EM) or ROE-CoE $67.50 Sources of long-term earnings growth: 61% + Long-term inflation forecast 0.00% = S&P 500 nominal cost of equ i ty * S&P 500 ERP usually 300-400bps, w/ real CoE @ 5.5% - 6.5% 2.00% + Fair return on true reinvestment + Value added return on true reinvestment EFTA01476122 = Long-term earnings growth 2000 + Growth from net share repurchases 2109 = Long- term S&P 500 EPS/DPS growth 2.05% + Fair normal dividend yield 1.94% = Total shareholder return at constant PE 2000 Value added growth premium in fair value est. 2.13% Fair S&P 500 Market Value and Book Value Multiple 0.00% 2014 end S&P 500 book value per share 4.13% Fair PB = Fair PE * normal aggregate ROE 1.33% Fair PE = (ROE-g) / (real ROE*(real CoE-real g)) 5.45% Implied S&P 500 fair value of book at 2015 start 2.05% Steady-state PB = normal agg. ROE / real CoE 7.50% Confirmed by fair steady-state PE = 1 / real CoE 0% $750 2.67 18.2 2000 2.67 18.2 Normal 2015E economic profit per share $68.75 Sensitivity matrix of S&P fair value at 2015 yearend to normalized EPS and Real CoE S&P 500 EPS discount model 5 steps to value: 1) Estimate normalized S&P 500 EPS 2) Adjust normalized EPS for pro forma accounting quality 3) Estimate a fair long-term real return on S&P 500 ownership (CoE) 4) Capitalize normalized and accounting quality adj. EPS at real CoE 5) Consider long-term potential for value added growth opportunities Real cost of equity 5.00% 5.25% 5.50% 5.75% 6.00% $118 2227 2124 2031 1945 1867 Normal 2015E S&P 500 EPS $120 2270 2165 2070 1983 1903 EFTA01476123 $122 2313 2206 2109 2020 1939 $125 2377 2267 2168 2077 1993 $130 2484 2370 2265 2170 2083 $135 2591 2472 2363 2264 2173 7.50% 1.50% 4.00% 5.50% 2.00% 7.50% Source: Deutsche Bank Research Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 55 EFTA01476124 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity 8 December 2015 Page 56 Deutsche Bank AG/London Figure 8: S&P 500 Advised Sector and Industry Allocation (2014/15 PE based on DB US Equity Strategy top down sector and industry EPS estimates) Market Advised Weight (%)Weight (%) Sector 2015 2016 PE PE Biotechnology Health Care Equipment & Supplies 14.5% 20.0% Health Care 17.1 16.1 Health Care Technology Life Sciences Tools & Services Pharmaceuticals Over - weight 21.2% 25.0% Information Technology IT Services 17.4 16.3 Semiconductors Software Communications Equipment Electronic Equipment 2.8% 5.0% Utilities Electric Utilities Gas Utilities 15.4 14.9 Independent Power Producers Multi-Utilities 2.3% 2.5% Telecom 12.4 12.7 Telecommunication Services Banks Capital Markets 16.4% 16.5% Financials 13.7 13.0 Overweight 2015/16 PE 2015 2016 PE PE 14.4 12.9 21.6 20.3 27.8 24.1 19.1 18.4 17.7 16.9 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals11.9 11.2 Internet Software & Services EFTA01476125 30.0 26.7 18.5 17.5 16.9 16.3 21.3 20.1 12.3 11.8 17.0 15.8 14.6 14.3 21.3 19.9 10.5 9.5 16.9 16.4 12.4 12.7 11.8 11.2 Consumer Finance 14.7 13.6 Diversified Financial Services Insurance REITs Real Estate Mgmt. & Development Thrifts & Mortgage Finance Equa lweight Consumer 13.1% 13.0% Discretionary 20.9 19.3 Auto Components Automobiles Distributors Household Durables Leisure Products Multiline Retail Specialty Retail Internet & Catalog Retail Media Food & Staples Retailing 9.7% 7.0% Consumer Staples 21.0 20.5 Airlines Under - weight 10.2% 5.0% Industrials 16.4 16.1 7.3 8.3 Building Products Air Freight & Logistics Commercial Services & Supplies Professional Services Road & Rail Chemicals 3.0% 2.5% Materials 17.7 16.5 11.3 10.9 EFTA01476126 20.4 18.8 12.1 11.6 18.5 17.8 17.3 16.0 33.2 11.6 13.4 12.5 Diversified Consumer Services 8.0 Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 8.4 19.3 18.0 Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods 16.4 14.6 20.5 19.3 15.3 14.3 21.5 19.8 81.5 65.2 18.1 17.1 18.1 17.5 Beverages Food Products Household Products Personal Products Tobacco 23.9 22.3 Industrial Conglomerates 18.1 17.0 Aerospace & Defense 19.1 18.1 Construction & Engineering 19.6 17.9 Electrical Equipment 14.8 13.9 Machinery Trading Companies & Distributors 17.1 16.3 Construction Materials Containers & Packaging Metals & Mining Paper & Forest Products 6.9% 3.5% Energy 27.5 23.8 Aggrega to PE of DB Indus t ry a lloca t ions S&P 500 Index Source: Deutsche Bank Research, IBES Overweight 15.6 14.8 2049.62 Equa lweight 17.6 16.6 Energy Equipment & Services Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Underweight 2015 & 2016 DB St ra tegy EPS 119.0 125.0 2015 & 2016 DB St ra tegy PE Bot tom-up Cons . EPS 118.4 128.1 Bot tom-up Cons . PE 22.8 22.6 24.4 23.4 20.4 19.8 27.4 24.0 EFTA01476127 20.3 20.6 22.7 21.6 17.2 16.3 14.0 14.0 15.9 15.9 15.3 15.9 16.7 15.9 43.2 36.0 16.0 15.3 28.0 18.3 10.6 10.6 20.5 29.3 29.5 22.9 21.3 20.0 17.2 16.4 17.3 16.0 18.4 16.8 24.5 22.4 23.8 21.7 Equa lweight 2015 2016 PE PE Underweight Health Care Providers & Services 2015 2016 PE PE 16.3 15.5 David Bianco,(1) 212 250 8169 Ju Wang, (1) 212 250 7911 Winnie Nip (1) 415 617 3297 EFTA01476128 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity European Equity Strategy: 7% upside in 2016E but beware of the risk of a near-term correction We see around 7% upside for the European equity market by end 2016, with a target of 410 for the Stoxx 600. We think European EPS overall will grow by 9% in 2016 (compared to consensus at 7%), with Euro-area EPS growth as the main driver, at 14% (compared to consensus at 8%). 12-month trailing P/Es, at 16.5x, are currently close to a 10-year high, but we see only moderate scope for de-rating, given the bias within the financial system for real bond yields below equilibrium levels. We think Euro-area equities have scope to outperform US equities in 2016, on the back of stronger EPS growth (our US strategists project 5% EPS growth in 2016), more attractive valuations (the relative Shiller P/E is still close to a 20-year low) and FX support (our FX strategists expect the euro trade-weighted index to fall by 7% in 2016). We see the risk of a 5% to 10% correction in the European equity market near term, as global financial conditions tighten in response to the first Fed rate hike in nearly a decade. Figure 1: The scope for a de-rating is limited by low real bond yields in Europe Stoxx 600 12m trl P/E (lhs) 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 Euro-area 10-year GDP-weighted real bond yield, inverted (rhs) -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Datastream, Bloomberg Finance LP Figure 2: We expect 14% EPS growth in the Euro area in 2016, driven by a cyclical rebound in earnings Euro area EPS growth US EPS growth 15 25 35 45 EFTA01476129 -35 -25 -15 -5 5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 DB Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Datastream Among sectors, we like European banks (the relative RoE has risen to a sevenyear high despite investor pessimism about the sector's profitability outlook — but the relative P/B has not yet reflected this improvement) and cyclicals (tech and autos, in particular). Pharma is our preferred defensive sector, given that its high US exposure means it is a natural hedge in a correction scenario driven by higher US rates and a stronger dollar. We are cautious on the outlook for the resource sectors (which would suffer if commodity prices fall further on the back of a strong dollar) and consumer staples (which would be negatively affected by a further fall in emerging market exchange rates and a rise in US bond yields). Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 57 EFTA01476130 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Figure 3: Banks' P/B relative has not yet reacted to the improvement in relative RoEs P/B relative (lhs) -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 European banks relative to the market 12m forward RoE relative (rhs) -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 80 2007 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Datastream 2009 2011 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Datastream 2013 2015 Figure 4: Consumer staples are priced for an implausible rates trajectory European food & beverage, rel to the market (lhs) US 10-year bond yields, inverted (rhs) 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 EFTA01476131 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 Sebastian Raedler, +44 20 754 18169 Wolf-von Rotberg, +44 20 754 52801 Page 58 Deutsche Bank AG/London Nov-05 Nov-07 Nov-09 Nov-11 Nov-13 Nov-15 EFTA01476132 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity FX Strategy: Plenty of run left in the USD upswing llThe multi-year strong USD cycle should extend for at least another two years, with a further 10% appreciation in the real broad USD TWI. ll2016 year-end forecasts are largely unchanged, with EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD seen at 0.90, 128 and 1.27 respectively. We anticipate extremes in the likes of AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD at 0.62, 0.53 nd 1.40 respectively. I In macro terms, how 2016 shapes up will be heavily influenced by whether the main macro driver is the Fed or China. If the Fed is the driver, USD gains are seen as likely to be slow and broad -based, spread fairly evenly between G4, commodity FX and EM FX. If on the other hand, China, particularly China FX policy, becomes a source of instability, USD gains will likely be heavily concentrated in commodity and EM FX, while the G4 majors all outperform. The USD continues to conform to the multi-year cycle big USD cycles of the past. Since the fall of Bretton Woods, big USD down cycles of 9-10 years have been followed by big USD upswings of 6-7 years. While all cycles are different, the macro backdrop conforms to a view that we are about 2/3rds the way through the big USD up cycle, with the real broad index some 50 months into an upswing. In the same vein, the real Broad TWI has in past cycles largely retraced any prior cycle losses, and increased by 53% and 33% in the 1978 - 1985 and 1995 — 2002 upswings respectively. In the last downswing the USD real broad TWI fell by 28%. We expect that the USD will at a minimum fully retrace these losses, fitting with further real broad TWI gains in the order of 10%. In magnitude terms we are then also likely to be a little over 2/3rds the way through the USD cycle, with USD gains henceforth likely to come at a slightly slower pace. The main departure in this cycle relative to past cycles is that the USD gains before the Fed starts hiking rates have been substantially larger than anything we have seen in any fed hiking cycle. This front-loading of USD gains fits with more modest USD gains to come. It would however be premature to think that we are close to a USD top. This cycle is also likely to be unique in a couple of respects that are very positive for the USD: (1) In this cycle, at least for the coming year the Fed, and perhaps the BOE are the only G10 Central Banks that are likely to tighten. This is in contrast to most EFTA01476133 Fed tightening cycles, when many G10 Central Banks are typically tightening. In the last Fed tightening cycle, all G10 Central Banks tightened. (ii) In addition, in this cycle many Central Banks are still leaning toward further accommodation, including not least in encouraging their own currency weakness. The US is one of the few countries willing to tolerate currency strength. iii) Some of the most important rate spreads for currencies, notably the 2yr US Treasury - Bund yield spread are seen moving in favor of the USD for the next 5 years, if the respective forward curves prove correct. We expect that some of the likely rate spread adjustment will also end up being front-loaded into the next two years. JPN EU* CHE yes no yes no yes yes yes no yes no no yes yes yes yes no yes no yes No, + easing yes yes No, + easing CAN yes yes yes yes yes yes No GBR yes yes No AUD yes yes yes yes yes yes No NZL** N/A N/A N/A yes yes yes No, + easing SWE yes yes yes yes yes yes No NOR yes yes yes no 6 Total 8 8 5 yes yes No, + easing 9 7 1 .*Bundesbank until 1992,ECB onwards.**data available from 1988 onwards Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Datastream yes Maybe yes Figure 1: USD real BROAD TWI performance during USD upward cycles Cycle Upswing gain (%) EFTA01476134 78-85 95-2002 2011 52.7 33.1 20.9 Prior cycle loss (%) -21.8 -34.0 -28.2 Source: Datastream, Deutsche Bank Research Months of upswing 78.0 83.0 50.0 Average gain per month 0.7 0.4 0.4 Figure 2: FX forecasts Q1-16F Q2-16F 04-16F 2015F 0.97 127 GBP/USD 1.42 128 1.37 0.90 128 1.27 2016F EUR/USD 1.01 USD/JPY 1.05 125 1.47 Source: Datastream, Deutsche Bank Research 0.90 128 1.27 2017F 0.85 120 1.15 Figure 3: EUR/USD performance months prior start of FED hike cycle t-24 Median EFTA01476135 Latest -5% -22% t-12 -2% -15% Source: Datastream, Deutsche Bank Research t-6 1% -4% t-3 -1% -6% Figure 4: G10 rate hike cycles Figure 5: 2y US-German spread forward curve 120 150 180 210 240 90 bps Source: Datastream, Deutsche Bank Research Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 59 Nov 76-May 81 Nov 82-Aug 84 Aug 86-May 89 Sep 92-Feb 95 Nov 98-May 00 Jun 03-Jun 06 2016 Curren t 3M0 6M0 1YR 2YR 3YR 4YR 5YR 10YR EFTA01476136 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity (iv) Ongoing QE in Japan and the EUR area should remain a force encouraging a US yield curve bear flattening bias; that is the most favorable backdrop for USD deposit and bond inflows. The past year has shown an extraordinary divergence of over $1 trillion between net inflows into US bond markets of over $600bn, and a mirror image of similar scaled net outflows from EUR bond markets. We expect that this pattern will largely persist consistent with EUR/USD breaking below parity in H1 2016. In contrast to these enormous portfolio flows, Japan largely sits on the sidelines, especially now that the GPIF portfolio reallocation is closing in on completion. Even if the yen does not quite conform to the past pattern of strengthening in Fed tightening cycles, the yen should outperform almost all other currencies barring the USD in 2016, with a USD/JPY peak just shy of Y130. Extreme valuations remain a consideration in limiting yen losses, but will likely only become more of a factor for EUR/USD on a break below 0.95. In contrast to the yen that led the stronger USD cycle, the resilient G10 currencies should display some catch-up in 2016, as USD gains rotate into the GBP, and potentially the Swiss-franc as well. The pound in particular should suffer from a mix of fiscal contraction constraining the BOE tightening cycle, making a C/A deficit of near 5% of GDP more difficult to finance, most especially in the face of 'Brexit' uncertainties. In macro terms, how 2016 shapes up will be heavily influenced by whether the main macro driver is the Fed or China. If the Fed is the driver, USD gains are seen as likely to be slow and broad-based, spread fairly evenly between G4, commodity FX and EM FX. If on the other hand, China, particularly China FX policy, becomes a source of instability, USD gains should be heavily concentrated in commodity and EM FX, while the G4 majors all outperform. Historically, commodity and EMFX have tended to lag the majors at turning points, and this should also be apparent in this cycle when the USD eventually turns. We anticipate extremes in the likes of AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD at 0.60, 0.50 and 1.45 respectively. Alan Ruskin (1) 212-250-8646 George Saravelos (44) 20-754-79118 Figure 6: USD/JPY and USD/EUR performance depending of US yield curve USD/JPY and USD/EUR performance depending of US yield curve -25% -20% -15% EFTA01476137 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Bear Flatten USD/EUR vs 10-2 yr yields USD/JPY vs 10-2 yr yields Twist Flatten Bull Bear Source: Datastream, Deutsche Bank Research Bull Twist Flatten Steepen Steepen Steepen Figure 7: Bond net flows -12m rolling sum (in USDbn) United States Euro Area 200 400 600 800 -600 -400 -200 0 Sep-2013 Apr-2014 Nov-2014 Source: Datastream, Deutsche Bank Research Jun-2015 USD bin Japan Figure 8: USD/JPY spot vs. PPP 20% Band USD/JPY 115 165 215 265 315 65 Source: Datastream, Deutsche Bank Research PPP USD/JPY 115 165 EFTA01476138 215 265 315 65 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009 2015 Page 60 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476139 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Commodities: Supply adjustment is well underway for oil, not so for the metals IIBy next year, we expect that OPEC will have engineered one of the sharpest historical declines in US production. A modelled contraction of at least 650 kb/d would be comparable with the 600 kb/d fall in 1989 which occurred in the context of an extended supply slowdown beginning after prices fell in 1986. IIOur modelling indicates that while the first half of next year will remain oversupplied and risks remain to the downside during this period, the steady contraction of US supply along with trend rates of demand growth will lead to a more normalised market balance in 2017. IIWe believe that the current recovery period in oil prices will be one of the slowest and most extended on record, owing partly to further growth in OPEC supply to 2017 when modelled OPEC production of 32.4 mmb/d matches our calculated call on OPEC (i.e., the volume required from OPEC o balance demand). It Oil at a Brent price of USD45/bbl is below the 2016 national budget breakeven level for all of the ten countries assessed by our EMEA macro team, and also below the breakevens for fourteen countries assessed by the IMF apart from Turkmenistan (with a breakeven of USD42.7/bbl). IIHowever, budget breakevens may continue to fall as a result of coping strategies in the form of spending cuts and currency devaluation while government bond issuance and asset sales help to fund deficits, thus making another year of low prices survivable. IIWe maintain our bearish outlook for gold. We believe the first step in US policy normalisation will now more likely than not take place this month. Moreover, further tightening in 2016 is long overdue and a full pricing-in of this risk has yet to unfold. Additionally, further 6% strength in the tradeweighted US dollar confirms the downside scenario for gold. IIFor industrial metals, the barriers to exit in many markets are high. These barriers range from the need to cover high fixed cost bases, take-or-pay supply contracts; pressure and incentives from governments to maintain employment and balance current accounts to a struggle for survival. IIThe metals industry still has to adjust to structurally lower Chinese demand while long gestation projects continue to add tonnes to the market. While we see supply cuts gathering momentum in 2016, we only expect price stabilisation in 2017 when the markets start to look more balanced. Oil fundamentals have bottomed; have prices? EFTA01476140 Our view is that market balances have seen their weakest period and that a slow and steady process of US supply curtailment is well underway. We have already seen a 440 kb/d decline in the US since July, although this was preceded and overshadowed by an OPEC increase of 1,400 kb/d between November 2014 and June 2015. Gradual improvement towards a more balanced market in 2017 is likely even with the onset of incremental Iranian exports next year. Further declines in the US will offset the Iranian ramp-up, while underlying demand growth of 1.2 mmb/d will take up the slack of excess Saudi and Iraqi volumes. Even if it is true that balances have seen the worst, market balances should remain weak for virtually the entire next year. Surpluses are most evident in the first half with an excess of +830 kb/d. Inventories will likely build once again over this period while we model the second half surplus at +177 kb/d. Deutsche Bank AG/London Figure 2: Global crude oil balances normalise in 2017E OECD Stock Change (rhs) Balance (rhs) Global Oil Demand (lhs) 100 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 mm b/d Surplus Global Oil Supply (lhs) mm b/d Deficit 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: IEA, Deutsche Bank Research -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Figure 1: Oil price slumps compared 100 120 20 40 60 80 EFTA01476141 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Number of trading days after the oil price peaked Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Oil price peak indexed at 100 2001 1990 1997 1985 2008 2014 Page 61 EFTA01476142 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity This is a time when markets are normally undersupplied and global inventories typically draw down, however, so a 'balanced' second half may still be regarded as bearish. Last year, OECD inventories rose over the second half, defying the typical profile, and they are on pace to do the same this year. While we believe any excursion of prices below the 2015 low would be shortlived, some uncertainty arises from the fact that producer support in the form of shut-ins would be unlikely, in our view. First, operating expenses per barrel of oil produced are quite low. We estimate that 1.92 mmb/d of global production becomes cash negative at a Brent price of USD30/bbl including 660 kb/d of low-volume stripper wells in the US. Second, producer shut-ins are unlikely to occur in this volume as there are myriad reasons to avoid the expenses of shutdown and eventual restart, such as the need to decommission older fields and the possibility of reservoir damage. The only scenario in which we could more reliably expect such closures is if producers become convinced that long-term real oil prices will remain below USD30/bbl, which is unlikely in our view. The US adjustment still has much further to go The focus of expectations for supply contraction in 2016 continues to be centered on the US, although other non-OPEC producers and some OPEC producers such as Iraq may also begin to suffer declines at existing investment levels. The susceptibility of US supply to contract is partly a result of a relatively short lag time between drilling and production, and also the responsiveness of the industry in which drilling contracts are relatively short, lasting from six to twelve months. Thus far, drilling activity in the US has contracted by -66% from the peak, versus 26% in the remainder of non-OPEC and -14% among OPEC producers. The decline so far of 440 kb/d will be extended over the coming months. A key assumption is that rig productivity growth will remain subdued in the major basins of the Bakken, Permian and Eagle Ford as the rate of contraction in drilling activity also slows. This is explained by the notion that a sharper rise in productivity is only possible as activity falls materially. In this phase, producers can selectively drill the most economic assets and exclude marginal plays, thereby raising the initial production rate from the average well. However, as the decline in drilling activity flattens, this process of winnowing out the losers is no longer possible to the same extent. We can observe the resulting slowdown in productivity gains beginning around August in the Permian, October in the Bakken, and in forecast figures for the Eagle Ford in December. A second and more neutral assumption is that the level drilling activity EFTA01476143 remains constant going forward, despite an average decline of nine oil-directed rigs per week since September. We can think of the risks to our model as offsetting to some degree — if rigs do continue to decline, the production outlook would certainly deteriorate but would be helped by higher gains to rig productivity. On these expectations then we find that a continued decline of US production in 2017 contributes to a more normal profile of first-half surplus followed by second-half deficit and the possibility of the first meaningful inventory draws. With OPEC potential production in 2017 of 32.4 mmb/d matching the modelled "Call on OPEC", this suggests that the market will recognise a need to stabilise and eventually raise the level of investment in supply both in the US and globally. Figure 3: An extended surplus in US commercial crude inventory 300 350 400 450 500 550 5Y Range 2015 2014 Forecast Jan FebMar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sources: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Figure 4: Decline in US oil production has further to go Actual rigs (lhs) Production (rhs) 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 0 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 Sources: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Rigs Scenario (lhs) Scenario (rhs) kb/d 1000 2000 EFTA01476144 3000 4000 5000 6000 0 Figure 5: DB Oil price deck WTI (USD/bbl) Brent (USD/bbl) 2015F 01 2016F Q2 2016F Q3 2016F Q4 2016F 2016F 2017F 2018F 49.2 48.0 50.0 54.0 54.0 51.5 58.0 65.0 Figures are period averages Source: Deutsche Bank Research 53.5 52.0 55.0 59.0 59.0 56.3 63.0 70.0 Page 62 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476145 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Financial markets & gold We maintain our bearish outlook for gold. Although Fed funds futures have priced in a normalisation of US policy at various points since 2009, we believe the first step will now more likely than not take place this month. Moreover, a tightening cycle in US monetary policy is regarded as long overdue based on the Taylor rule, with a strong likelihood of further steps in the new year. While a 25 bps hike in December may have little impact for precious metals given the strength of market expectation, we also expect three more rate hikes in 2016. If realised this would be a meaningful departure from the currently priced expectation and consequently, more negative for precious metals. We reference the impact to gold prices of the rise in market expectations of a December hike from 30% in October to more than 70% currently, Figure 6. By the same token, a disappointment of the market expectation for the first rise in nominal US rates since 2006 would be positive for gold as we believe it would have to be accompanied by either a systemic risk event, a sudden and dramatic deterioration in growth prospects, or else the shock that market participants have miscalculated in some other way. Industrial metals: Supply rebalancing gains momentum The barriers to exit in many metals markets are high. These barriers range from the need to cover high fixed cost bases, take-or-pay supply contracts; pressure and incentives from governments to maintain employment and balance current accounts to a struggle for survival. 2015 did however mark the start of the supply curtailments in response to low and falling prices. There are some differences between the oil and the metals markets however. In the case of oil, demand was reasonably robust, and the oversupply was driven by a supply glut. In metals, the industry still has to adjust to structurally lower Chinese demand while long gestation projects continue to add tonnes to the market. We think the critical mass in this adjustment process will come in the latter half of 2016 for oil, but not so for the industrial metals. In the industrial metal complex, it was only toward the end of 2015 that any significant capacity cuts have been announced. Glencore has taken the industry lead in the base metals, with cuts of 500kt in mined zinc (c.3.5% of the market) and copper (c.2% of the market). In aluminium Alcoa announced cuts of 500kt (1% of global supply), but we think more cuts from China is needed to be truly effective. More recently, Chinese smelters (copper —200kt, zinc —500kt and nickel —120kt) announced a raft of cuts. These are partly in response to cuts by the miners in our view however. The magnitude of these cuts is not sufficient to support EFTA01476146 prices, except for potentially the Nickel market. In comparing the supply response during the global financial crisis, it was only when the cuts exceeded 10% of the market that prices started to find a floor. We see supply cuts gathering momentum in 2016, but the market will be wary of producers reversing their decision at the first sign of a price recovery. The adjustment process this time round will be much slower than during the GFC, and we only expect a price stabilisation in 2017, when the markets should start to look more balanced. The demand outlook for oil remains healthier than that of the industrial metals. This statement deserves some clarification. In absolute terms the demand growth in many metals is likely to be higher than that of oil; however the rate of growth in many metals is likely to be half the rate seen over the past five years. Oil demand is likely to be only marginally lower over the next five years due to the more price elastic response and the fact that oil demand growth is much less sensitive to the Chinese economic slowdown. The net result is that although we forecast metal demand growth to remain positive, producer and indeed market expectations are still too high in our view. The slowdown in Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 63 Figure 6: Gold downside to result from US Fed normalisation Index 85 90 95 100 105 Jul-2015 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Aug-2015 Sep-2015 Oct-2015 Nov-2015 Dec-2015 Gold (indexed to 100, lhs inverse scale) Silver (indexed to 100, lhs inverse scale) EFTA01476147 Market-implied probability (0.25-0.5% Federal funds rate at 16-Dec-15 meeting) (rhs) Sources: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Figure 7: Base metal production cuts as a percentage of the market Volume cuts (lhs) Percentage of market (rhs) 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 Copper Nickel Zinc Aluminium* Note: *excluding Chinese capacity cuts as net additions far outweigh closures Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Company Reports Kt 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 Figure 8: Metal and oil demand growth forecasts CAGR 2009 - 2014 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% CAGR 2015 - 2020E 2016E Note: *excludes investment demand Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Wood Mackenzie, Platinum* Aluminium Nickel Copper Zinc EFTA01476148 Lead Iron ore Oil EFTA01476149 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Chinese metal demand is structural in our view, with over 60% of Chinese demand related to; infrastructure, property and industrial manufacturing. The remaining 40% is related to consumer demand. Unfavourable demographics with an ageing working population is the main driver for slower metals demand in property related demand sectors. We forecast demand growth from the property sector to be essentially flat with lower "new" demand being offset by replacement demand as lower-quality buildings are upgraded. Metal demand from infrastructure is also likely to be low single digits, with many of the tier-1 and tier-2 cities close to being fully developed, in our view. Infrastructure build in the lower tier cities offers some upside as does the upgrading of some early infrastructure builds. However, the jury is still out as to whether the more limited employment and social benefits will entice the general population to relocate to these tier-3 cities. The overcapacity in many basic industrial sectors such as mining, metal refining and processing, ship-building has led to a significant decline in capex. Basic industry is unlikely to be a driver of metals demand until the over capacity is squeezed out of the market. Industries further down the value chain tend to be more knowledge driven and less metal intensive, and any growth in these sectors is unlikely to offset the weakness in the basic industries. Demand growth in Auto's and white goods remains the bright spot for Chinese metals demand. We forecast mid-single-digit demand growth with rising metals intensity per unit as higher specification models are purchased. The net result is flat to falling demand growth in steel and low single digit demand growth in the base metals. Figure 10: Chinese copper demand by sector: demand is weighted towards FAI Other 8% Electronics 7% Building/ Construction 21% Figure 9: Falling Chinese FAI 10 20 30 40 -10 0 % change EFTA01476150 Y/Y FAI Manufacturing (Y/Y) FAI Real Estate (Y/Y) FAI infrastructure (Power/Water/Gas) (Y/Y) Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Wind Figure 11: Chinese copper demand growth by sector: Demand growth remains positive, but structurally lower 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% White Goods 15% 0.0% 5.0% 2000 - 2005 Transportation 11% Industrial machinery & equipment 11% Source: Deutsche Bank Research Electrical network infrastructure 27% Construction Transportation Total 2005 - 2010 2010 - 2014 Electrical network White Goods 2014 - 2020E Industrial Machinery Electronics Source: Deutsche Bank Research Page 64 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476151 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity A cyclical rebound in off a low base Although we think that much of the metal demand slowdown in China is structural, the cyclical weakness in the property market, weak land sales and continued anti-corruption investigations into some of the higher profile state infrastructure companies has exacerbated the structural slowdown. We think that there is a reasonable probability of a modest cyclical rebound in demand for 2016. Property sales have improved off a low base, but as yet there has not been a sustained pick-up in new starts. Land sales have improved, again off a low base, and this has resulted in a topping up of state coffers, which has allowed a re-acceleration in infrastructure spending. The end of anti- corruption investigations will also allow some more freedom of action, especially at the local government level. Declining investment into manufacturing capacity will continue to be a drag on the sector, as over capacity results in falling capex. Figure 12: Apparent crude steel consumption versus floor space sold China monthly floor space sold (lhs) China monthly crude steel apparent consumption, (rhs) 15 30 45 60 75 90 -30 -15 0 %yoy, Emma %yoy, Emma 16 24 32 40 48 -16 -8 0 8 Source: Deutsche Bank Research , WSA, CEIC Figure 13: Chinese fiscal deposits versus fiscal expenditure Figure 14: Non-financial sector capex growth rate yoy % yoy, 3mma -40% -20% EFTA01476152 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Fiscal deposit_10months backward (lhs) Fiscal expenditure (rhs) % ytd yoy, 3mma After moved 10 months backward, fiscal deposit becomes highly correlated with fiscal expenditure. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Jun-2002 Jun-2004 Jun-2006 Jun-2008 Jun-2010 Jun-2012 Jun-2014 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 -3 0 3 6 9 % yoy Non-financials CAPEX growth rate (4-quarters moving average) Source: Deutsche Bank Research, NBS Source: Deutsche Bank Research, WIND A crescendo of corporate activity The mining sector is under severe stress, which we think will culminate in a flurry of corporate activity in 2016. The producers have continued to cut capex and operating costs, with the help of falling producer currencies trying to outpace the fall in prices. We continue to see further capex declines and cost cutting, but we believe the ability to cut much more is now limited. Cashflows and balance sheets remain under pressure. Dividends in all but a select few companies will be cut, asset sales are likely to accelerate and we expect to see a rise in M&A. At the opposite end of the spectrum, we expect to see a few EFTA01476153 companies in administration and the number of rights issues increasing over the course of the year, as companies look to repair balance sheets. The first wave of rights issues were seen in 2015 with the under pressure PGM producers Lonmin and Impala first out of the starting blocks. The crescendo of activity in the sector is likely to mark the bottom, and as long as the balance sheet repair process is accompanied by supply discipline, the outlook for the sector should improve towards the end of 2016. Figure 15: spot metal prices versus marginal cost -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 2015 2016e Note: *incl. US MidWest premium, **at spot Pd, Rh and Rand, ***incl. sustaining capex, ****Seaborne market Source: Deutsche Bank Research , Wood Mackenzie, Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 65 Aluminium* Copper AISC*** Nickel Zinc Iron ore Met Coal**** Thermal Coal**** Platinum** Gold AISC*** 3004 1005 3005 1006 3006 1007 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1009 3009 1010 EFTA01476154 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 Apr-08 Oct -08 Apr -09 Oct -09 Apr -10 Oct -10 Apr -11 Oct -11 Apr -12 Oct -12 Apr -13 Oct -13 Apr -14 Oct -14 Apr -15 Oct -15 EFTA01476155 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Figure 16: Large cap* miner net debt to EBITDA Ratio 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 The cycle starts to turn The miners respond by cutting capex and costs which offsets commodity price weakness ...the risk in 2016e is that commodity prices continue to weaken, . our base case assumes some asset sales for select producers. ...but not enough to offset the speed of commodity price declines in 2015 Figure 17: Glencore 1Y CDS spread bps 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 2011 2012 2013 Base case 2014 2015E 2016E Risk case Note: *Mkt cap weighted BHPB, Rio, Barrick, Freeport, Alcoa, Norilsk, Alcoa, Glencore, Southern Copper, Anglo American and Vale Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Company reports, Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Bloomberg Finance LP 2017E Glencore 1Y CDS spread Grant Sporre, (44) 20 754 58170 Michael Hsueh, (44) 20 754 78015 EFTA01476156 Page 66 Deutsche Bank AG/London Dec-2014 Feb-2015 Apr-2015 Jun-2015 Aug-2015 Oct-2015 EFTA01476157 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Global Asset Allocation: The case for normalization Key themes and catalysts for 2016: After a record rise in the dollar, 2015 saw unusually negative US data surprises that were second only to 2008. Five and a half of the first six months saw a prolonged and sustained period of negative surprises as the lagged impacts of the record rise in the dollar combined with a second severe winter and port strikes. Following a brief period of positive surprises, the August equity market correction saw sentiment indicators fall sharply and another two months of negative surprises ensued. Macro data surprises were worse only in 2008. 2016 should see normal data surprise cycles, with a warmer winter an upside risk. The sharpest nine-month rise in the dollar against the major currencies was responsible directly for the sharp move down in manufacturing and indirectly through the collapse in oil prices on energy-related capex. The divergence between manufacturing and resilient services has been closely tied to the pace of dollar appreciation and should begin to anniversary out with the former catching back up to the much larger latter sector. Underlying (private) US growth has been much stronger than headline GDP growth rates and it has been resilient. Headline GDP growth in the US (2.0%) has been lowered by the shrinking government sector. With the peak in fiscal drag passed, we expect headline growth to lift towards private GDP growth (3.0%) if not higher given expenditure multipliers. The US recovery has also been resilient in the face of a variety of large shocks in recent years with, for example, the labor market remaining in its 2.4% ar recovery channel. Financial repression is reducing growth: rate normalization to raise incomes and lower the savings rate. The traditional view that low rates represent stimulus focuses on the cost of household (HH) liabilities, but the asset side is much bigger (Are Low Rates Raising The Savings Rate?, Oct 2015). Of $100 trn of HH assets, cash alone is $10 trn and lower rates mean lower interest income of $360 bn (2% of GDP) before multipliers. Lowering the return on savings also raises the savings rate (1 pp of GDP). Corporate cash holdings are 3x short-term debt so earnings should also rise with rates, especially for the Financials. EM growth re-normalization is advanced: the question is whether it will be a soft or hard landing. The multi-year outperformance of EM during 2001-2010 represented a confluence of four circumstantial factors: slack following late 1990s crises; dollar down cycle encouraged capital inflows and credit boom; dollar down cycle meant oil and commodity up cycle; interaction meant appreciating exchange rates, which checked inflation and lengthened the cycle; each factor went into reverse in 2010-2011 and looks to have a little further to run. Our baseline view has been that the EM growth spread or advantage will revert to its historical range, and we are almost there (When Will EM Stop De-rating?, Oct 2013). While EM growth has been slowing since EFTA01476158 the peak in 2010, the pace of deceleration slowed beginning in 2012 with the end of the European financial crisis. Our baseline view is that the pickup in developed markets growth, combined with the fact that EM FX has overshot the decline in relative growth, will see a soft landing in EM. The relatively typical global economic recovery continues at trend -like global GDP growth rates. Despite the angst and narrative of how weak global growth has been, 2015 marked the fourth year running of trend -like global GDP growth. Using market exchange rate weights, growth has actually been rising since 2012 and should move at above trend next year. Asynchronous global recoveries are typical. We view the current global recovery as being like the 1990s when asynchronization was the norm; not like the unusually synchronized 2003-07 recovery, which was the exception. Deutsche Bank AG/London Fig. 1: Big neg. surprises this year... Average Annual MAPI -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Fig. 2: ... reflected dollar's rise % yoy -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 1997 2001 2005 Recession USD TWI, inverted axis (lhs) Mfg minus Services PMI (rhs) Index pts Flat EFTA01476159 USD Correl = -41% 2009 2013 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2017 Source: Markit, Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Fig. 3: Pvt. vs. headline growth Recession Private Index 102 107 112 117 122 127 97 Source: BEA, Deutsche Bank Research Total US Real GDP (01 2004 = 100) 3.0% growth 2.0% Govt Index -2.2% 102 107 112 117 122 127 97 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15 Fig. 4: EM growth normalization EM minus DM: Real GDP Growth (IMF data and forecasts) -1 0 1 2 EFTA01476160 3 4 5 6 7 % yoy 2011 forecast 2012 forecast 2013 forecast 2014 forecast Consensus 2015 forecast % yoy 2015 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Source: IMF, Deutsche Bank Research Page 67 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2015 2006 2004 2010 2011 2012 2001 2000 2003 2007 EFTA01476161 2013 2005 2014 2002 1998 2009 1999 1997 EFTA01476162 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity The goods-services divide suggests the Fed and ECB are misdiagnosing underlying inflation: low goods inflation is a global phenomenon that reflects the dollar up and commodity down cycles, which are accelerated by monetary policy divergence; services inflation is running much stronger and rising. Core goods inflation (25% weight in the US; 38% weight in Europe) consistently runs well below core services inflation. In the US, core goods inflation has been running slightly negative for three years, while core services a much stronger 2.5% for the last four years and recently moved to a new cycle high. In the Euro area, core goods inflation is running higher than in the US reflecting the depreciation of the euro, while core services has been moving up and is running at 1.4%. Core goods inflation in the US is strongly correlated with import price inflation. Zero or slightly negative core goods inflation in the US can also be thought of as foreign inflation less the dollar's appreciation. Core services inflation in the US has moved up over the last three months and has a fair degree of catch up to do with the decline in unemployment relative to the NAIRU and rental vacancies. The dollar up cycle should have 10% to go medium term, but speed breakers are now in place to slow the pace. The US trade-weighted dollar rose 23% during Jun 2014-Mar 2015, the fastest pace ever with about three years of appreciation in a typical dollar up cycle packed into nine months. The rapid appreciation erected two speed breakers which should slow the pace: lower core goods inflation prompted the Fed to push out rate guidance in April (marking a top in the dollar for next seven months); the drag on US growth and earnings has seen a big reallocation ($-150bn) out of US equities into Europe. Historically turns in productivity are led by the dollar: typical lag implies we are at the cusp. Historically, over the post-World War II period, productivity has grown at a trend rate of 2.1% per year, with long multi-year cycles in the level of productivity around this trend. The current level is near the bottom of the trend channel, a level last seen in 1995. Incentives matter: the dollar looks to have been an important driver of productivity historically. There has been a relatively strong correlation between the lagged level of the trade weighted dollar and productivity. The average lag looks to have been about three years. Cyclical asset allocation: large over-allocation to fixed income at the expense of equities persists. Around recessions, flows overweight bonds over equities. EFTA01476163 Asset allocation re-normalizes around Fed hiking cycles. This time various QEs, calendar guidance and Twist prompted investors to put even more money into bonds long after the recession. Despite equity inflows resuming in 2013 (especially after the taper) cumulative overweight in bonds is still $748bn and underweight in equities $1.4 trn. Each episode of rising rates over the last five years saw robust reallocations from bonds to equities. The cross asset rates minder: Rate normalization cycles have long been associated with significant price losses on the 10y. Previous rate hiking cycles each saw long-lived capital losses on the 10y, averaging -11%. We estimate that a catch back up of market expectations to the Fed's guidance is worth +150bps in the lOy implying a significant potential re-pricing. The current divergence two years ahead is comparable with historical experience near turning points in rate cycles. Figure 5: Trend like global growth % yoy -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 World real GDP growth (IMF data) Average (3.6%) % yoy 1990s asynchronous global growth 2015 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Weights using PPP exchange rates Source: IMF, Deutsche Bank Research Figure 6: Dollar cycle has 10% to go Index 100 110 120 130 60 70 EFTA01476164 80 90 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Index USDTWI PPP Implied 20% Band 100 110 120 130 60 70 80 90 Figure 7: Dollar leads productivity USD TWI (dev from PPP implied, 12q lead, lhs) US Nonfarm Productivity (dev from trend) (rhs) 10 20 30 40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Correl (since 1982): 51% -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Source: BLS, Deutsche Bank Research Figure 8: Over allocation to bonds Cumulative bond flows Rising yields 400 EFTA01476165 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 0 USD bin Bond flows USD750bn above normal USD bin 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 0 Source: ICI, Deutsche Bank Research Page 68 Deutsche Bank AG/London 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 EFTA01476166 2011 2015 2019 EFTA01476167 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity There is plenty of room for the terminal rate to go up and for the bond risk premium to turn positive. Starting in late 2012, the Fed began lowering its "long run" policy rate in sync with its forecast of lower long -run real GDP growth, from 2.5% to 2%, which corresponds to average headline GDP growth in this recovery. But with the drag from the government shrinking since early 2014 and private sector GDP growth running at 3%, underlying headline growth has already moved up to 2.4%. As the government sector begins to cease being a drag, headline real GDP growth should lift to 3% and the terminal rate to 4.5% (3+2-0.5). With the bond risk premium (BRP) an unprecedented negative through the Fed's calendar rate guidance, it turned positive around the taper but is back to around zero. We look at the BRP relative to the lOy as this normalizes for prevailing duration. Historically, the BRP ranged from 0% to 40% of the lOy yield, averaging 22%. That would be as additional 44 bps on the current 10y, about what the Fed seems to be assuming. The BRP has also been historically correlated with the US current account deficit as much of it was financed by the foreign official sector, which bought Treasuries for Official Reserves. The present current account deficit points to 25% of the lOy yield, so similar (55bps) but slightly higher BRP. Credit spreads tighten with higher rates but over-allocations keep fixed income vulnerable: HY over HG. It is generally assumed that higher rates mean wider credit spreads, i.e., that the beta of credit spreads to the lOy yield is positive; the betas of both HG and HY spreads to the lOy have in fact always been negative (Credit After The Taper Reset, August 2013). HG has been the largest recipient of inflows in fixed income and with spread compression (beta less than 1) insufficient to offset the impact of higher rates, negative total returns leave them vulnerable to outflows. HY much less so. The equity risk premium is at a 70-year high; it is perfectly negatively correlated with the lOy yield. The equity risk premium (the equity discount rate less Treasury yields) is a very hefty 8% (Cycles in the Equity Discount Rate and Risk Premium, Apr 2015). Prior to this cycle, the last time it was this high was in the 1950s post-World War II recovery period. It remains 3pp wider than it was pre-financial crisis. The equity risk premium has historically been strongly negatively correlated with the lOy Treasury yield. With a beta around -1, a rise in the lOy yield should see the equity risk premium shrink by a commensurate amount. Indeed a 3 percentage point rise in lOy yields that shrunk the equity risk premium by a commensurate amount in line with the historical pattern would take it back down only to where it was prior to the financial crisis, i e., equities look to be priced for significantly higher yields and then some. EFTA01476168 The dollar cycle is years ahead of the rates cycle. As US rate increases get closer and the ECB keeps rates on hold or even cuts further, rate differentials move in favor of the dollar; but the euro is two years ahead of rates and will therefore remain vulnerable to reversals. Positioning has been moving long the dollar. At 92% of April highs, there looks to be only modest room for the market to go longer. The next phase of the dollar up cycle looks to be closer to the typical 5% a year pace: (i) euro rates selloff has further to go; (ii) in the face of rapid dollar appreciation the Fed already pushed out rate hikes once marking a trough in the euro for the next six months and will likely do it again. Oil will continue to be pressured by a rising dollar but unlike 2014 it looks close to fair value. Across the oil and commodities complex, prices have been driven predominantly (average 81%) by global activity (slack) and the US dollar (Trading The Commodity Underperformance Cycle, Apr 2013). But as a practical matter, they have been driven almost entirely by the dollar and valuation, as global growth has varied little over the last few years. Oil prices are now close to fair value (Closing Our Short In Oil, Dec 2014) and risk-reward argues for being modestly underweight on a rising dollar. Industrial metals, especially Copper still looks expensive. Deutsche Bank AG/London Figure 9: Hiking cycles and 10Y Fed Rate Cycles and lOy Treasury Price Changes Hiking Cycle 1958-59 1961-66 1972-74 1976-80 1980 1983-84 1994-95 2004-06 Average Median Hiking Cycle duration (months) 16 64 26 37 4 EFTA01476169 16 12 24 25 20 Fed Rate at Trough 0.5 0.5 3.5 4.8 9.5 8.5 3.0 1.0 Fed Rate at Peak 4.0 6.0 13.0 14.0 20.0 11.5 6.0 5.3 -3m to +12m return -11.9 -1.9 -5.6 -0.9 -23.9 -10.2 -12.0 -1.5 -8.5 -7.9 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research lOy treasury price chg during the hiking cycle -10.4 -9.6 -10.4 -23.1 -9.6 -12.5 EFTA01476170 -10.4 -3.1 -11.1 -10.4 Figure 10: Credit spreads and rates bps -2.00 -1.75 -1.50 -1.25 -1.00 -0.75 -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 3m Beta of Corp Spreads to lOy Rising yields HG bps HY -2.00 -1.75 -1.50 -1.25 -1.00 -0.75 -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 Source: Factset, ML index, Deutsche Bank Research Figure 11: Equity risk premium negatively correlated with rates 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 lOy yield, inverted axis (lhs) Equity Risk Premium, over lOy (rhs) pp 11 ERP (over 10y) = 10.48 - 0.874 * lOy yield Adj R-Sq: 77.9% Correl EFTA01476171 Since 1933: -88% Since 1980: -92% 1933 1947 1961 1975 1989 2003 2017 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 Figure 12: Euro is far ahead of rates EURUSD Fitted 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 At FOMC exp of Fed rates At mkt pricing of Fed EURUSD = 1.35 + 0.06*(EUR-US 12m rate diff) + 0.014*(EMU PE (rel to US) R-sq = 52%; Smpl: 11/2004-5/2014 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Page 69 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 1990 1992 1994 1996 EFTA01476172 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 EFTA01476173 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity The ghosts of EM crises past: equity over-allocation to EM has been completely unwound; EM FX to have overshot the relative growth slowdown; waiting for the Fed. Past EM crises occurred when US dollar up cycles (3/4 of the way through) coincided with US rate hiking cycles. Key difference now is that EM FX has already depreciated. EM growth normalization explains well the underperformance of EM equities and fall of EM FX. EM absolute growth is now back to the middle of its historical range while relative growth is still a bit high. In terms of allocations, the equity over allocation to EM has been completely unwound. Bond allocations are lower but the potential for more downside on a broader unwind of fixed income over allocations remains. EM FX has overshot. We would look to go long EM once US rates re-price for the rate hiking cycle. Asset allocation and trades: Overweight equities; underweight bonds, cash and commodities, long the Dollar Within equities, we would overweight the US and Japan, neutral Europe, underweight EM (until Fed re-pricing). IIExpect mid-cycle price gains for US equities (+13%) on solid demandsupply, strong underlying earnings growth as dollar drag recedes, valuations slightly below fair value; similar appreciation in Europe but higher risk as the largest consensus overweight and relative valuations at the expensive end; more in Japan (+18%) as steep valuation discount dissipates; less in EM (6%) as relative growth slows further and higher US rates and dollar pressures spreads. IIWe look for higher lOy yields (+75bps) as markets gradually move toward pricing in Fed's path of rate normalization. A higher terminal rate and risk premium could mean additional pressure in the future. We are underweight duration and prefer HY over HG for larger spread ompression as rates rise. 1 Trades: The Fed to move faster: steepeners at the short end (EDZ7 — EDZ6) It's all about inflation: Short Euribor Dec 2018 futures Equity recoveries from 10%+ corrections are strong: Long S&P 500 March 2016 risk reversals As rates catch up to the dollar: Long Financials short Energy Excessive defensive premium to erode: short Consumer Staples EFTA01476174 Long US-centric dollar beneficiary stocks Stay short copper: supply to add to overvaluation pressure. Figure 13: Oil near fair value Real log Oil Price = 19.6 -3.50*(Ln USDTWI) + 1.89* (World Output Gap) Sample: 1999-2013 R-Sq: 82% USD/bbl 110 130 150 10 30 50 70 90 Fair Value Brent Oil Price WTI Oil Price USD/bbl 110 130 150 10 30 50 70 90 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Figure 14: EM equity over allocation has been reversed 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 -300 -200 -100 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: EPFR Global, Deutsche Bank Research EM minus DM equity flows (Cumulative since 2004) USD bln USD bln 100 200 300 400 500 600 EFTA01476175 700 -300 -200 -100 0 Figure 15: EM FX has overshot EM relative growth and FX -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2002 pp Index 102 107 112 IMF Projection 2005 EM minus US growth (lhs) EM FX index (rhs) 2008 2011 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 2014 2017 Source: National statistical organizations, Deutsche Bank Research Binky Chadha, (1) 212 250 4776 Parag Thatte, (1) 212 250 6605 Rajat Dua, (1) 212 250 2946 Page 70 Deutsche Bank AG/London Oct-2000 Oct-2002 Oct-2004 Oct-2006 Oct-2008 EFTA01476176 Oct -2010 Oct -2012 Oct-2014 Oct -2016 EFTA01476177 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Geopolitics: The EU's geopolitical crisis eclipses its economic crisis The EU is challenged to its south by the collapse of the security cordon built laboriously over four decades along the southern Mediterranean and to its southeast by the collapse and sectarian civil wars of Syria and Iraq. Both of these are the sources of the radical Islamist terror and the mass migrations that are now threatening the EU' s internal cohesion. To its east, it is challenged by Russia' s response to its efforts to form an association with Ukraine. The war in Syria is becoming an ever-greater can of worms. In addition to the mutually competing interests of the many factions battling the Assad regime and each other, four key outside countries and their coalition partners-- Russia, France, the US, and Turkey—now have air forces in action also with mutually competing objectives, regardless of their formal coalition alignments. In response to the massacre in Paris, France has fully committed its most powerful conventional forces to this decade' s " War on Terror" . This sudden attack and response may help to cut through the knot of contradictions that have threatened the EU geopolitically and economically, for example by finally dethroning the abrasive fiscal constraints via force majeure. More likely, in our view: the EU will become even more absorbed in the conflicting tactics and strategies in Syria that have so tied up the other major participants. The EU's basis is geopolitical European unification has always been about geopolitics. The drive for European internal unity started as a geopolitical solution to end the intraEurope warfare that arguably had continued since the fall of Rome—and it has evolved over 65 years at an accelerating pace. It began with the European Coal and Steel Community, an accord between especially Germany and France on the allocation of these vital resources. Then in sequence came the European Economic Community, the Schengen Agreement, the European Community, and the European Union along with the euro area. This political and institutional evolution has coincided with an historically long peace in Western Europe. The geopolitical freeze imposed by US and Soviet occupation during the Cold War delivered the first 45 years of peace. But for the last 25 years, it has proceeded under its own momentum, albeit under the US security umbrella. At its base, the euro itself initially was about internal geopolitics: German reunification in 1989 finally completed German's grand strategy in effect since the Adenauer government. It could have created a thoroughly dominant Germany that once again might become overbearing and politically destabilizing. The euro was the way to harness Germany to the interests of EFTA01476178 the larger Union to make its potential strength less threatening. Aside from its economic aspects, the euro also was to be a device to accelerate the arrival of the federal European state. Economists did then and still do believe that a currency without an over-arching state would be unstable. But even this flaw strengthened the rationale for its creation: the euro would force the completion of unification. It would lock in members and compel centralization of key financial decision-making and regulation. It was " Irreversible" and so therefore was the path to a super-state. But the incomplete nature of the EU state system was the ultimate source of the euro economic and political crisis. A perceived unwillingness to do what it took via fiscal transfers to hold the system together has driven a not-quite standard balance-of-payments crisis from 2010 through 20012 and again in 2015. Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 71 EFTA01476179 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity The existential crisis for the euro arose from the realization that the "irreversibilty" of the system was simply an authoritative incantation and not a well-underpinned objective reality. Even during 2010-2011 in a benign geopolitical environment, the perceived cost—both economic and geopolitical —to the system of a break-up was simply too great. So institutions were created and means were found via the bailout programs to hold the system together. But Greece stayed in depression, and this brought intra-EU politics to a boil. The recently agreed third Greek Program forced Greece to stay in at least for the time being. Good-bye to the geopolitical respite Since the 2011-12 phase of the Greek and euro area crisis, Europe (and the US) has lost control of the south shore of the Mediterranean. Iraq and Syria have disintegrated, the result of a major intensification of the Sunni-Shia conflict. This was followed by the tightening of the Russia-Iran-Syria-Iraq alignment that threatens to surround the Sunni oil producers, underlined by last year' spread of the war to Yemen. The EU' s expansive effort to pull Ukraine into its sphere has been resisted by Russian military force, and there is Russian pushback for the retaliatory sanctions along the length of its frontiers with the EU. All this is occurring at the moment of new US reluctance to put itself in the middle of these distant fights. Afghanistan is also crumbling as the US backs away from its post-9/11 advance into central Asia. Evidently, the US is consciously reducing the dependability of its generalized security umbrella or at least creating that impression. This is consistent with former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates' 2011 valedictory warning: the lack of military funding in most of the EU in accordance with NATO guidelines is leading to a decline of will to continue US support for NATO in the post-Cold War generation and the current administration. Now huge waves of mass migration from Africa, the Middle East, and even Central Asia have beset the EU, and we believe they will not stop without direct and forceful EU intervention to stabilize these troubled regions. This has generated a bit more German dominance within the EU and added centrifugal tendencies in the eastern EU to those in the UK. Unilateral closing of frontiers is undermining the Schengen Agreement, and the Eastern European members are nullifying the European Council' s qualified majority mandate under the Lisbon Treaty to accept refugee quotas. These accelerating external and internal threats will likely push the "petty" economic disputes of the euro crisis to the back burner and the geopolitical EFTA01476180 dimension to the forefront. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the unification of Germany, and the securing of oil in the Gulf War, external geopolitical threats to Europe disappeared for 20 years. In this geopolitical vacuum of a weak Russia, the EU took the opportunity to expand rapidly to the east while centralizing itself internally. The quasi-confederate European Community morphed into not quite a federal European Union, which morphed into a sort of Imperial Union showing interest in Ukraine. But now the geopolitical free ride is over. The US, at least until 2017, will likely not provide much of an umbrella. And the still-incomplete Union now has to develop policy through a security lens. The Eastern European states emerged from World War II with fairly uniform national populations and cultures due to the horrors and ethnic cleansings during and after the war. This is likewise partly true of the successor states to the former Yugoslavia. They all signed on enthusiastically to the European project in expectation of sharing the bounty of European prosperity, governance institutions, culture, and democracy, with an added bit of Page 72 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476181 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity protection from any future resurgence of Russia. These benefits were all delivered, but their national cultures are now threatened from the inside by the unexpectedly accelerating progressive trends in European culture and even more by the requirement to absorb the extra-European culture of mass migration. This is bound to advance the power of nationalist forces that have always been skeptical of adhering too tightly to the European project. Bringing stability to its surroundings is vital to the stability of the EU. Otherwise, the migration crisis will continue to threaten its disintegration. To enlist Russia to shift more weight against ISIS, as France wishes, a deal might be done at Ukraine' s expense and at the price of locking Russian bases in Syria and allowing the Assad regime to survive. However, to gain this tactical enhancement, the EU and especially France would have to sacrifice strategic objectives in Ukraine and Syria. The alternative is to keep Russia at a distance and to take punitive action against ISIS with more EU airpower, which would be about equal to the US and Russian air forces already there. The introduction of the long-range S-400 missile defense system effectively makes Russia the air traffic controller in the region, so the air war now can be pursued only with Russian assent. This is unlikely to shorten the Syrian civil war and may prolong it. But showing it a continued hostile face incentivizes Russia to continue those policies that collaterally have driven the refugee waves that threaten EU political cohesion. Finally, Turkey, a main supporter of anti-Assad forces via logistical flows, is the main refuge and transit point for refugees from the region. The EU is currently desperately negotiating with Turkey to plug the flow with offers of cash and visa-less travel for Turks to the EU. A strategic EU compromise with Russia that leaves the Assad regime in place might sacrifice any Turkish interest in stemming the refugee flow. Any EU rapprochement with Russia would add yet more to the insecurity of the EU's eastern European members. A can of worms, indeed. Peter Garber, (1) 917 495 0120 Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 73 EFTA01476182 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Key Economic Forecasts Advanced economies US Japan Euro area Germany France Italy Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Finland Greece Portugal Ireland United Kingdom Denmark Norway Sweden Switzerland Canada Australia New Zealand EEMEA Czech Republic Egypt Hungary Israel Kazakhstan Nigeria Poland Romania Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Turkey Ukraine United Arab Emirates Asia (ex-Japan) China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka EFTA01476183 Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezuela G7 Advanced economies EM economies Global 2015F 2.4 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.7 3.2 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.1 -0.1 1.5 5.2 2.4 1.6 1.4 3.2 1.0 1.3 2.3 2.3 1.0 4.5 4.1 2.7 2.4 1.5 3.6 3.4 3.7 -3.7 3.3 1.3 2.9 EFTA01476184 -9.7 3.7 6.1 7.0 2.5 7.3 4.5 2.6 4.6 6.0 2.5 5.5 1.0 2.5 6.5 -0.8 1.0 -3.7 2.1 3.0 2.3 2.8 -9.7 1.9 1.9 4.0 3.1 GDP growth (% yoy) 2016F 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.4 2.8 1.4 1.3 1.4 0.8 -0.7 1.7 3.5 2.5 1.7 1.4 2.7 1.2 2.4 3.0 2.0 EFTA01476185 1.9 2.7 3.6 2.4 2.8 2.0 4.2 3.5 4.0 -0.7 1.4 1.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 6.1 6.7 3.0 7.5 4.5 2.8 4.2 6.0 2.5 6.0 2.4 2.5 6.7 -0.1 -0.1 -2.4 2.2 2.8 2.7 3.4 -7.6 1.9 1.9 4.4 3.3 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, National statistical authorities 2017F 2.1 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.0 2.3 1.3 1.2 EFTA01476186 1.4 1.0 1.8 1.5 3.0 2.3 1.8 2.2 2.5 1.6 2.6 3.4 2.5 2.5 3.2 4.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 5.0 3.5 3.0 0.5 1.6 1.3 3.5 3.0 2.7 6.3 6.7 4.0 7.8 5.0 3.0 5.0 5.8 2.5 7.0 2.7 2.5 7.0 2.2 3.9 1.0 2.7 3.2 3.2 4.2 -3.2 1.8 1.8 EFTA01476187 4.9 3.6 2015F 0.2 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.6 0.3 0.6 0.8 -0.1 -1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.0 -1.1 1.2 1.5 0.4 8.7 0.4 11.0 0.0 -0.5 6.4 9.0 -0.9 -0.6 15.6 2.2 4.6 7.6 48.7 4.2 2.4 1.4 3.1 4.9 6.4 0.7 2.0 1.4 -0.4 1.0 -0.3 EFTA01476188 -0.9 0.8 15.2 27.9 9.0 4.4 4.9 2.5 3.5 120.0 0.3 0.3 5.6 3.4 CPI inflation (% yoy) 2016F 1.9 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.7 1.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.4 2.4 1.0 -0.4 2.1 1.9 1.5 6.7 1.6 9.5 2.1 0.8 14.2 10.5 1.1 -0.2 9.2 2.3 6.4 7.8 EFTA01476189 15.3 2.9 2.9 1.8 4.4 5.4 4.8 1.6 2.7 3.0 1.2 4.5 1.1 0.9 5.0 18.8 37.3 8.5 3.6 6.0 3.1 3.8 175.0 1.5 1.4 5.9 4.0 2017F 2.3 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.3 1.9 0.3 2.3 2.2 1.8 5.9 EFTA01476190 2.0 9.0 2.7 1.2 6.5 9.5 1.7 2.6 7.1 2.9 6.5 7.5 9.3 3.3 2.9 1.8 3.8 5.0 5.2 2.1 2.6 3.1 1.8 5.0 1.6 1.7 5.8 19.4 23.6 6.2 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 250.0 2.1 2.0 5.7 4.2 Current Account (% of GDP) 2016F 2015F -2.4 3.3 3.0 8.1 -0.1 2.1 1.5 11.0 -0.8 EFTA01476191 2.8 0.3 -0.5 1.1 5.0 -4.3 7.5 7.5 6.0 9.0 -3.3 -4.3 -4.1 -0.7 1.6 -3.9 3.1 3.6 -3.0 -2.2 -1.1 -0.7 4.3 -5.5 -4.3 -4.8 1.0 2.1 2.6 3.3 0.6 -1.3 -2.2 8.9 2.5 2.6 20.2 -1.6 15.6 3.8 -1.6 -3.0 -2.3 -3.5 -0.7 -6.2 -2.5 -3.6 -0.3 -2.8 3.6 EFTA01476192 2.7 7.8 -0.5 1.8 1.6 11.1 -0.5 3.1 0.4 0.5 1.2 4.5 -3.1 7.0 7.0 5.7 8.0 -2.6 -4.5 -5.0 -0.7 1.2 -4.4 3.3 3.0 -3.7 -1.8 -1.6 -1.1 5.0 -4.9 -3.8 -5.2 -1.8 2.5 2.1 2.8 2.0 -1.6 -2.0 7.3 3.0 1.1 19.4 -1.4 14.0 2.7 -2.9 -2.5 -2.4 -1.8 EFTA01476193 -1.3 -5.9 -2.7 -3.3 -0.9 2017F -3.1 3.9 2.3 7.7 -0.6 1.8 1.4 11.1 -0.2 3.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 4.5 -3.0 6.5 6.5 5.5 8.0 -1.6 -4.1 -4.9 -0.4 0.7 -3.5 2.5 3.2 -1.9 -0.9 -1.8 -1.5 5.0 -3.2 -4.5 -5.1 -1.4 3.5 1.8 2.5 2.4 -2.0 -1.8 7.2 3.3 1.2 EFTA01476194 17.8 -1.5 12.7 2.9 -3.1 -2.4 -2.3 -1.9 -0.9 -5.1 -2.9 -2.5 0.2 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2016F 2015F -2.4 -5.4 -2.2 0.3 -3.9 -2.8 -4.3 -2.0 -2.7 -2.0 -3.4 -4.1 -3.0 -2.1 -4.0 -3.0 7.5 -1.5 0.0 0.1 -2.4 0.3 -5.5 -1.9 -11.5 -2.4 -2.8 -3.2 -2.7 -2.9 -1.2 -2.7 -19.7 -3.9 -1.6 EFTA01476195 . . . . . . O . . . . ..! . . . . . . . . . . , I c) . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . F.J . . . . . N! . . . . C> 4! na i—. i—. a • na c> c> i—. • NN i—. 4! 4! 4! I- 1 na i—. 4! na 4! • na a. na i—. na LAJ LAJ LAJ 1.0 ••••1 •-J vi na i—. cm • i—. LAJ c> na LAJ • 4! na a a. NJ 1-• NJ • AA UJ 1-• lil 0 lil lil lil 0 0 NJ 01 -.-.1 t.0 UJ AA 0 lfl NJ • CI CO 0 UJ lfl CI NJ -.-.1 0 CI 0 lfl NJ UJ UJ t.0 NJ t.0 0 UJ 0 In EFTA01476196 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.1 -13.3 -3.5 -2.1 -4.0 -2.1 -3.1 -3.5 1.3 -3.8 -2.3 -0.2 -3.1 -1.6 3.3 -6.0 -1.8 -2.1 -5.0 -5.9 -6.1 -7.6 -3.2 -3.6 -3.3 -3.2 -15.8 2017F -2.1 -3.4 -1.6 0.0 -2.9 -2.1 -2.6 -1.8 -2.3 -1.2 -3.1 -1.4 -2.8 -1.3 -1.0 -2.0 6.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 EFTA01476197 -2.1 0.9 -3.6 -1.2 -9.7 -2.0 -2.9 0.1 -2.3 -2.7 -3.0 -1.6 -10.6 -3.4 -1.7 -3.5 0.3 -3.1 -3.5 1.8 -3.7 -2.2 0.1 -2.9 -1.8 3.1 -5.5 -1.7 -2.2 -5.0 -5.0 -4.3 -6.3 -2.5 -3.3 -3.0 -2.7 -15.0 Page 74 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476198 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Key Economic Forecasts QUARTERLY GDP (% yoy) US Japan Euro area Germany France Italy United Kingdom Canada Australia EEMEA Poland Russia South Africa Turkey Asia (ex-Japan) China India Indonesia Korea Taiwan Latin America Argentina Brazil Mexico G7 Advanced economies EM economies Global Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015F Q1 2016F Q2 2016F Q3 2016F Q4 2016F Q1 2017F Q2 2017F Q3 2017F Q4 2017F 2.9 -0.8 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.7 2.1 2.1 0.2 3.6 -2.2 2.2 2.5 6.6 7.0 EFTA01476199 EFTA01476200 4.O CO 4.O CV in r•-• in OM • CO CS4 CO iC - r •-• 0 ill 4D 4D iCt CP • in • CO CO CO 0 0 r•-• esi to • m to• esi 0 0 -tem 4.0 r•-• esi co rm Lei r--• 4.0 C.- •cl- NV ON i CV 4-4 4-4 •cl- MeV 4-1 4-1 4-1 4-1 CD CV 4-1 ri i CO I 4-1 Cc) 4.0 f•••• r•-• •ct CV CD I CV I CV CV CV •ct MeV 4-I 4-I 4-I 4-I CD CV 4-4 CV I CO -4.1 1.0 3.1 6.4 6.9 7.4 4.7 2.6 -0.6 -1.2 0.0 -4.1 2.6 1.8 1.8 4.3 3.1 Source: Deutsche Bank Research, National statistical authorities. *Note: All aggregates are calculated on the basis of countries mentioned in this table only. 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 2.1 0.8 2.8 -0.8 3.4 -3.8 0.6 2.7 6.5 7.2 7.1 4.4 3.0 0.2 -1.5 0.0 -4.6 2.4 1.8 1.8 4.3 3.1 2.4 0.9 1.4 EFTA01476201 1.6 1.0 1.2 2.4 1.8 2.7 -0.2 3.1 -2.4 0.6 1.9 6.4 7.0 7.5 4.0 2.9 1.0 -1.2 -0.1 -4.3 2.6 1.9 1.9 4.5 3.3 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.4 2.4 3.2 0.8 3.1 -0.4 1.3 1.6 6.4 6.8 7.6 4.1 3.0 2.6 -0.3 -0.2 -2.5 2.7 1.8 1.8 EFTA01476202 4.8 3.4 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.6 2.6 3.0 1.2 2.9 -0.4 1.4 3.3 6.4 6.6 7.6 4.8 2.5 3.4 0.6 0.0 -0.8 2.8 1.9 1.9 4.9 3.5 2.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 2.5 2.8 3.1 1.7 3.1 0.1 1.1 4.5 6.2 6.4 7.3 5.1 2.7 2.6 1.0 EFTA01476203 0.1 -0.1 2.9 2.0 2.0 4.9 3.6 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.2 2.4 2.7 3.1 1.8 3.3 0.4 1.1 4.1 6.2 6.5 7.3 4.7 2.9 2.5 1.9 3.9 0.6 3.0 2.0 2.0 5.1 3.7 2.1 0.2 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.0 2.3 2.7 3.3 1.7 3.1 0.5 1.2 3.3 6.5 6.7 EFTA01476204 7.7 4.7 2.9 2.6 2.2 3.9 1.0 3.1 1.8 1.8 5.3 3.7 2.1 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.4 0.9 2.2 2.7 3.5 1.6 3.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 6.5 6.7 7.9 4.9 3.2 2.8 2.4 3.9 1.3 3.2 1.8 1.8 5.3 3.7 1.9 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.5 0.9 2.1 2.4 3.7 1.6 2.9 EFTA01476205 0.7 1.7 2.4 6.7 6.7 8.4 5.7 3.1 3.0 2.6 3.9 1.6 3.3 1.7 1.7 5.5 3.7 Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 75 EFTA01476206 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Key Financial Forecasts Interest Rates US Japan Euro area United Kingdom Denmark Norway Sweden Switzerland Canada Australia New Zealand EEMEA Czech Republic Hungary Israel Kazakhstan Poland Romania Russia South Africa Turkey Ukraine Asia (ex-Japan) China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Latin America Argentina* Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezuela* US (End of Period) 3M rate 0.83 EFTA01476207 0.15 1.08 0.15 1.33 0.15 -0.11 0.57 -0.16 1.09 -0.29 -0.82 0.72 2.31 3.04 0.29 1.35 0.10 n.a 1.62 n.a 11.80 6.52 n.a n.a n.a 0.39 7.15 n.a 1.67 3.80 2.14 1.07 n.a 0.81 1.63 n.a n.a 14.15 3.48 5.01 3.11 5.16 n.a Exchange Rates (End of Period) FX Rate (vs. US Dollar) Japan Euro area United Kingdom Denmark Norway Sweden EFTA01476208 Switzerland Canada Australia New Zealand EEMEA Czech Republic Hungary Israel Kazakhstan Poland Romania Russia South Africa Turkey Ukraine Asia (ex-Japan) China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezuela 123 1.09 1.51 6.84 8.53 8.52 1.00 1.34 0.73 0.67 24.8 287.4 3.86 307.1 3.96 EFTA01476209 4.12 67.8 14.4 2.88 23.73 6.40 7.75 66.84 13,833 1,167 4.22 47.2 1.40 143.2 32.82 35.91 22,425 9.73 3.10 702 3,149 16.68 3.37 6.30 127 1.01 1.42 7.39 8.91 8.74 1.13 1.38 0.66 0.56 26.8 312.9 3.97 311.7 4.14 4.36 64.4 14.6 3.07 23.45 6.40 7.75 67.50 13,850 1,200 4.58 47.9 EFTA01476210 1.42 144.0 33.50 36.60 22,800 13.50 4.00 710 3136 16.40 3.38 7.80 128 0.97 1.37 7.69 9.18 9.10 1.14 1.33 0.68 0.59 27.9 327.8 4.00 318.5 4.28 4.53 64.6 14.9 3.10 24.28 6.50 7.75 67.50 13,700 1,225 4.61 48.1 1.43 144.5 34.00 37.20 23,100 15.00 4.05 706 3183 16.30 3.42 9.75 EFTA01476211 128 0.90 1.27 8.29 Advanced economies Current Q1-2016 Q2-2016 04-2016 Current Q1-2016 02-2016 Q4-2016 1.09 134 FX Rate (vs. Euro) 1.01 10.80 9.72 1.28 1.40 0.62 0.53 28.9 355.6 4.00 329.8 4.56 4.88 66.0 15.4 3.18 25.00 6.70 7.75 68.00 13,500 1,240 4.30 47.0 1.45 145.0 35.00 37.50 23,500 17.30 4.20 710 3275 16.00 3.48 12.50 * High inflation regime and controls prevent to have a valid market reference. Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Bloomberg Finance LP, Datastream; as of Dec 07 0.72 7.46 EFTA01476212 9.25 9.29 1.09 1.46 1.49 1.63 27.0 313.1 4.20 334.8 4.32 4.49 73.88 15.7 3.14 25.17 6.96 8.45 72.87 14,799 1,248 4.60 51.4 1.52 156.17 35.78 39.15 24,157 10.60 4.14 765 2,869 18.18 3.67 6.87 128 0.71 7.46 9.00 8.83 1.14 1.39 1.54 1.81 27.1 316.3 4.01 314.8 4.18 4.40 65.0 EFTA01476213 14.7 3.10 23.69 6.46 7.83 68.18 13,989 1,212 4.63 48.4 1.43 145.44 33.84 36.97 23,028 13.64 4.04 717 3,168 16.56 3.42 7.88 0.97 124 0.71 7.46 8.90 8.83 1.11 1.29 1.44 1.64 27.1 317.5 3.88 308.9 4.15 4.40 62.7 14.5 3.01 23.57 6.31 7.52 65.48 13,289 1,188 4.47 46.6 1.39 140.17 EFTA01476214 32.98 36.08 22,407 14.55 3.93 684 3,087 15.81 3.31 9.46 0.90 115 0.71 7.46 9.72 8.75 1.15 1.26 1.45 1.70 26.0 320.0 3.60 296.8 4.10 4.40 59.5 13.9 2.86 22.52 6.03 6.98 61.20 12,150 1,116 3.87 42.3 1.31 130.50 31.50 33.75 21,150 15.57 3.78 639 2,948 14.40 3.13 11.25 Current 01-2016 Q2-2016 04-2016 123 EFTA01476215 134 186 18.0 14.5 14.5 123.5 92.1 90.4 83.1 5.0 0.4 31.0 FX Rate (vs. Yen) 127 128 181 17.2 14.3 14.5 112.4 92.0 83.6 70.9 4.7 0.4 30.7 128 124 175 16.6 13.9 14.1 112.3 96.2 86.5 75.7 4.6 0.4 29.9 128 115 162 15.4 11.9 13.2 100.0 91.4 79.5 67.7 4.4 0.4 EFTA01476216 28.1 -0.15 0.58 -0.20 1.30 -0.20 -0.80 0.55 2.13 2.67 0.30 1.35 0.10 n.a 1.70 n.a 11.00 6.70 n.a n.a n.a 0.90 6.90 n.a 1.60 3.74 1.97 1.10 n.a 0.68 1.80 n.a n.a 14.25 3.77 6.44 4.75 5.92 n.a -0.15 0.84 -0.20 1.30 -0.20 -0.80 0.60 2.13 2.67 0.30 1.35 0.10 EFTA01476217 n.a 1.70 n.a 10.50 6.80 n.a n.a n.a 1.15 6.80 n.a 1.60 3.74 3.22 1.20 n.a 0.68 1.90 n.a n.a 14.25 3.77 6.51 5.25 6.22 n.a -0.15 1.12 0.35 2.15 0.00 0.15 0.90 2.13 2.67 0.40 1.35 0.40 n.a 1.75 n.a 9.00 7.10 n.a n.a n.a 1.20 6.70 n.a 1.65 3.74 EFTA01476218 3.97 1.40 n.a 0.68 2.00 n.a n.a 14.25 4.26 6.48 6.00 6.62 n.a 2.27 0.32 0.69 1.93 n.a n.a n.a n.a 1.58 2.95 3.59 0.45 3.58 2.18 n.a 2.89 3.63 9.53 8.56 10.03 n.a 3.08 1.53 7.76 8.56 2.30 4.20 4.15 2.55 n.a 1.18 2.69 n.a n.a 15.58 n.a 8.47 6.27 EFTA01476219 7.04 n.a Advanced economies Current 01-2016 02-2016 04-2016 Current 01-2016 02-2016 04-2016 0.46 0.17 10Y rate 2.00 0.40 0.65 1.90 n.a n.a n.a n.a 1.80 3.00 3.50 0.70 2.90 1.80 n.a 2.60 3.70 9.70 8.70 9.80 n.a 3.00 1.60 7.60 8.00 2.20 4.25 4.10 2.55 n.a 1.25 2.75 n.a n.a 15.30 n.a 10.82 7.50 8.38 n.a 2.25 0.45 0.80 2.00 EFTA01476220 n.a n.a n.a n.a 1.90 3.00 3.50 0.80 3.00 1.80 n.a 2.70 3.80 9.40 8.80 10.00 n.a 3.00 1.70 7.50 8.00 2.70 4.30 4.30 2.75 n.a 1.45 2.95 n.a n.a 15.00 n.a 10.97 8.20 8.70 n.a Official rate 2.50 0.55 1.10 2.40 n.a n.a n.a n.a 2.55 3.00 3.50 1.00 3.30 2.00 EFTA01476221 n.a 2.75 4.00 8.50 9.20 10.30 n.a 3.20 1.80 7.50 8.50 2.75 4.40 4.50 2.90 n.a 1.70 3.10 n.a n.a 14.00 n.a 11.17 9.00 9.17 n.a Current 01-2016 02-2016 04-2016 0.625 0.10 0.05 0.50 0.05 0.75 0.125 0.10 0.05 0.50 0.05 0.75 -0.35 -0.75 0.50 2.00 2.75 0.05 1.35 0.10 5.50 1.50 1.75 11.00 EFTA01476222 6.25 7.50 22.00 1.50 0.50 6.75 7.50 1.50 3.25 4.00 1.07 7.50 1.75 1.50 6.50 n.a 14.25 3.25 5.50 3.00 3.50 n.a -0.35 -0.75 0.50 2.00 2.50 0.05 1.35 0.10 16.00 1.50 1.75 10.50 6.50 8.50 17.00 1.50 1.00 6.50 7.25 1.50 3.25 4.00 1.10 7.50 1.63 1.50 6.50 n.a 14.25 EFTA01476223 3.50 6.50 3.25 4.00 n.a 0.875 0.10 0.05 0.75 0.05 0.50 -0.35 -0.75 0.50 2.00 2.50 0.05 1.35 0.10 16.00 1.50 1.75 10.00 6.50 9.00 14.00 1.50 1.25 6.50 7.00 1.50 3.25 4.00 1.20 8.00 1.63 1.50 6.50 n.a 14.25 3.50 6.50 3.50 4.25 n.a 1.125 0.10 0.05 1.00 0.05 0.50 EFTA01476224 -0.35 -0.75 0.75 2.00 2.50 0.05 1.35 0.25 12.00 1.50 1.75 9.00 7.00 9.50 12.00 1.00 1.25 6.50 7.00 1.50 3.25 4.50 1.40 8.00 1.63 1.50 6.50 n.a 14.25 4.00 6.25 3.75 4.50 n.a 19.2 15.9 1.8 112.16 0.11 29.4 2.6 88.1 0.9 3.8 3.4 0.006 19.8 16.4 1.9 109.06 0.11 EFTA01476225 27.7 2.7 89.4 0.9 3.8 3.5 0.006 19.7 16.5 1.9 107.03 0.10 27.8 2.7 89.5 0.9 3.8 3.4 0.006 19.1 16.5 1.9 105.47 0.10 29.8 2.7 88.3 0.9 3.7 3.4 0.005 Page 76 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476226 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Long-term forecast GDP growth,96 yoy 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Advanced economies US Japan Euro area United Kingdom Canada Australia EM economies Russia South Africa China India Indonesia Brazil 2.4 -0.1 0.9 2.9 2.5 2.6 0.6 1.5 7.3 7.1 5.0 0.1 2.4 0.7 1.5 2.4 1.3 2.3 -3.7 1.3 7.0 7.3 4.5 -3.7 2.1 1.5 1.6 2.5 2.4 3.0 -0.7 1.1 EFTA01476227 6.7 7.5 4.5 -2.4 2.1 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.6 3.4 0.5 1.3 6.7 7.8 5.0 1.0 2.1 1.4 1.4 2.3 2.2 4.0 1.2 2.7 6.5 8.0 6.0 1.9 GDP per head, % yoy 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Advanced economies US Japan Euro area United Kingdom Canada Australia EM economies Russia South Africa China India Indonesia Brazil 1.6 0.1 0.6 2.4 1.4 1.2 -1.4 EFTA01476228 -0.1 6.8 5.7 3.8 -1.1 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.8 0.3 0.6 -3.8 -0.5 6.5 5.9 3.2 -4.5 1.3 1.8 1.2 1.9 1.4 1.6 -0.7 0.0 6.2 6.1 3.3 -3.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.7 2.0 0.6 0.3 6.2 6.4 3.8 0.3 1.3 1.9 0.9 1.7 1.3 2.5 1.3 1.7 6.0 6.6 EFTA01476229 4.3 1 2 Key official interest rate, % (eop) 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Advanced economies US Japan Euro area United Kingdom Canada Australia EM economies Russia South Africa China India Indonesia Brazil 0.13 0.10 0.05 0.50 1.00 2.50 17.00 5.75 2.75 8.00 7.75 11.75 0.38 0.10 0.05 0.50 0.50 2.00 11.00 6.25 1.50 6.75 7.50 14.25 1.13 0.10 0.05 1.00 0.75 2.00 9.00 7.00 1.00 EFTA01476230 6.50 7.00 14.25 2.13 0.10 0.05 1.50 2.00 2.00 8.50 7.00 1.00 6.50 7.00 11.00 2.88 0.10 0.25 2.00 3.50 2.50 8.00 6.50 1.00 6.50 7.00 11.00 FX rate vs. USD (eop) 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Advanced economies US Japan Euro area United Kingdom Canada Australia EM economies Russia South Africa China India Indonesia Brazil 1.00 1.00 1.05 1.47 1.35 0.69 64.35 14.30 EFTA01476231 6.40 67.00 3.90 1.00 0.90 1.27 1.40 0.62 66.04 15.40 6.70 68.00 4.20 1.00 0.85 1.15 1.40 0.60 64.74 15.70 6.70 69.00 4.37 1.00 1.00 1.27 1.30 0.65 60.39 13.20 6.70 69.00 4.53 1.00 1.10 1.34 1.20 0.70 59.15 12.80 6.70 70.00 4.69 1.00 120.64 125.00 128.00 120.00 110.00 105.00 100.00 1.21 1.56 1.16 0.82 56.26 11.58 EFTA01476232 6.10 63.33 Source: National Authorities, Deutsche Bank Research 1.15 1.40 1.20 0.70 60.35 13.30 6.70 70.00 12440 14000 13500 13000 12500 12000 12500 2.66 4.86 3.00 0.50 0.75 2.50 4.00 3.00 7.50 6.50 1.00 6.50 7.00 13.00 3.00 0.50 1.50 3.00 3.50 3.50 7.50 6.50 1.00 7.00 7.00 11.00 2.15 0.44 0.54 1.76 1.79 2.74 12.98 7.96 3.65 7.86 7.80 12.30 1.90 EFTA01476233 0.35 0.60 1.80 1.65 3.00 9.70 8.60 2.90 7.60 8.60 15.30 1.7 1.8 0.9 1.7 1.3 2.6 2.1 2.2 6.0 6.6 5.0 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.0 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.5 6.0 6.6 5.0 1.0 2.5 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.2 4.0 2.0 3.2 6.5 8.0 6.0 1.7 2.5 1.3 1.5 2.3 EFTA01476234 2.2 3.6 2.0 3.5 6.3 8.0 6.0 1.6 CPI inflation, % yoy 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 1.6 2.8 0.4 1.5 1.9 2.5 7.8 6.1 2.0 6.7 6.4 6.3 0.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.2 1.5 15.6 4.6 1.4 4.9 6.4 9.0 1.9 0.7 0.9 1.1 2.1 1.9 9.2 6.4 1.8 5.4 4.8 8.5 2.3 2.1 1.6 1.9 2.3 EFTA01476235 2.2 7.1 6.5 1.8 5.0 5.2 6.2 2.3 1.4 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.5 5.5 5.3 2.1 5.0 6.0 5.0 Population growth, % yoy 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 0.8 -0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.6 0.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.8 -0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 0.0 1.8 0.5 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.8 -0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 EFTA01476236 0.0 1.1 0.5 1.4 1.8 0.8 0.8 -0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 0.0 1.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.8 -0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 -0.1 1.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.7 10Y bond yields (eop) 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2.50 0.55 1.10 2.40 2.55 3.00 8.50 9.20 3.20 7.50 8.50 14.00 2.75 0.50 1.50 2.80 4.00 3.00 8.00 EFTA01476237 9.30 3.30 7.50 8.50 12.05 3.00 0.60 1.80 3.20 5.50 3.00 7.50 9.00 3.50 7.80 8.00 11.77 FX rate vs EUR (eop) 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 1.21 1.05 1.00 0.71 1.42 1.52 67.74 15.05 6.72 70.35 4.10 0.90 1.00 0.71 1.40 1.48 68.30 14.06 7.43 76.89 3.22 1.26 1.45 59.50 13.87 6.03 61.20 3.78 0.85 1.00 0.74 1.19 EFTA01476238 1.42 54.86 13.31 5.70 58.65 3.71 1.00 1.00 0.79 1.30 1.54 60.39 13.20 6.70 69.00 4.53 1.10 1.00 0.82 1.32 1.57 65.00 14.07 7.37 77.00 1.15 146.70 131.25 115.20 102.00 110.00 115.50 115.00 1.00 0.78 1.00 0.82 1.38 1.64 69.37 15.29 7.71 80.50 15052 14700 12150 11050 12500 13200 14375 5.16 5.59 3.25 0.90 2.00 3.50 5.50 3.00 7.00 8.75 3.60 7.80 8.00 EFTA01476239 11.33 3.25 1.10 2.20 3.50 5.80 3.00 6.50 8.50 3.70 7.80 8.00 11.01 0.8 -0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 -0.1 1.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.8 -0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 -0.1 1.0 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.7 2.3 1.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.5 4.4 5.0 2.1 5.0 6.0 5.0 2.3 1.0 EFTA01476240 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.5 4.2 5.0 2.1 5.0 6.0 5.5 Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 77 EFTA01476241 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Contacts Name Coverage David Folkerts-Landau Michael Spencer Economics Peter Hooper Torsten Slok Joe LaVorgna Mark Wall Stefan Schneider Mikihiro Matsuoka Michael Spencer Taimur Baig Gustavo Canonero Strategy Dominic Konstam Francis Yared Oleg Melentyev Jim Reid David Bianco Sebastian Raedler Alan Ruskin George Saravelos Michael Hsueh Binky Chadha Peter Garber Global Head of Research Global Head, Macro Research Telephone +44 20 754 55502 +852 2203 8303 Email david.folkerts-landau@db.com michael.spencer@db.com Global Economics Global Economics US Economist Europe Economics Germany Economics Japan Economics Asia Pacific Economics Asia Economics Latam Economics +1 212 250 7352 +1 212 250 2155 +1 212 250 7329 +44 20 754 52087 +49 69 910 31790 EFTA01476242 +81 3 5156 6768 +852 2203 8303 +65 6423 8681 +1 212 250 7530 peter.hooper@db.com torsten.slok@db.com joseph.lavorgna@db.com mark.wall@db.com stefan-b.schneider@db.com mikihiro.matsuoka@db.com michael.spencer@db.com taimur.baig@db.com gustavo.canonero@db.com Rates Strategy Rates Strategy US Credit Strategy EU Credit Strategy US Equity Strategy EU Equity Strategy FX Strategy FX Strategy Commodities Global Asset Allocation Geopolitics +1 212 250 9753 +44 20 7545 4017 +1212 250 6779 +44 207 547 2943 +1 212 250 8169 +44 20 754 18169 +1 212 250 8646 +44 20 754 79118 +44 20 754 78015 +1 212 250 4776 (1) 917 495 0120 dominic.konstam@db.com francis.yared@db.com oleg.melentyey@db.com jim.reid@db.comP4i david.bianco@db.com sebastian.raedler@db.com alan.ruskin@db.com george.saravelos@db.com michael.hsueh@db.com bankim.chadha@db.com peter.garber@db.com Page 78 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476243 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity Appendix 1 Important Disclosures Additional information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/- ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. David Folkerts-Landau/Peter Hooper/Matthew Luzzetti/- Michael Spencer/Mark Wall/Torsten Slok (a) Attribution The authors of this report wishes to acknowledge the contribution made by Kuhumita Bhattacharyya, Bagar Zaidi and Twisha Roy in preparation of this report. The author also wishes to acknowledge the contribution made by Antara Banerjee, employee of Evalueserve third party provider to Deutsche Bank of offshore research support services in preparation of this report. (b) (c) (d) Regulatory Disclosures (e) 1.Important Additional Conflict Disclosures Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. (f) 2.Short-Term Trade Ideas Deutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas (known as SOLAR ideas) that are consistent or inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer term ratings. These trade ideas can be found at the SOLAR link at http://gm.db.com. Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 79 EFTA01476244 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity (g) Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively "Deutsche Bank"). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others within Deutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this research report. 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Unless otherwise indicated, prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session, and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and in EFTA01476245 some cases, other parties. Macroeconomic fluctuations often account for most of the risks associated with exposures to instruments that promise to pay fixed or variable interest rates. For an investor who is long fixed rate instruments (thus receiving these cash flows), increases in interest rates naturally lift the discount factors applied to the expected cash flows and thus cause a loss. The longer the maturity of a certain cash flow and the higher the move in the discount factor, the higher will be the loss. Upside surprises in inflation, fiscal funding needs, and FX depreciation rates are among the most common adverse macroeconomic shocks to receivers. But counterparty exposure, issuer creditworthiness, client segmentation, regulation (including changes in assets holding limits for different types of investors), changes in tax policies, currency convertibility (which may constrain currency conversion, repatriation of profits and/or the liquidation of positions), and settlement issues related to local clearing houses are also important risk factors to be considered. The sensitivity of fixed income instruments to macroeconomic shocks may be mitigated by indexing the contracted cash flows to inflation, to FX depreciation, or to specified interest rates — these are common in emerging markets. It is important to note that the index fixings may -- by construction -- lag or mis-measure the actual move in the underlying variables they are intended to track. The choice of the proper fixing (or metric) is particularly important in swaps markets, where floating coupon rates (i.e., coupons indexed to a typically short-dated interest rate reference index) are exchanged for fixed coupons. It is also important to acknowledge that funding in a currency that differs from the currency in which coupons are denominated carries FX risk. Naturally, options on swaps (swaptions) also bear the risks typical to options in addition to the risks related to rates Derivative transactions involve numerous risks including, among others, market, counterparty default and illiquidity risk. The appropriateness or otherwise of these products for use by investors is dependent on the investors' own circumstances including their tax position, their regulatory environment and the nature of their other assets and liabilities, and as such, investors should take expert legal and financial advice before entering into any transaction similar Page 80 Deutsche Bank AG/London movements. EFTA01476246 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity to or inspired by the contents of this publication. The risk of loss in futures trading and options, foreign or domestic, can be substantial. As a result of the high degree of leverage obtainable in futures and options trading, losses may be incurred that are greater than the amount of funds initially deposited. Trading in options involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option investors must review the "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options", at http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character- risks.jsp. If you are unable to access the website please contact your Deutsche Bank representative for a copy of this important document. Participants in foreign exchange transactions may incur risks arising from several factors, including the following: ( i) exchange rates can be volatile and are subject to large fluctuations; ( ii) the value of currencies may be affected by numerous market factors, including world and national economic, political and regulatory events, events in equity and debt markets and changes in interest rates; and (iii) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government imposed exchange controls which could affect the value of the currency. Investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are affected by the currency of an underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. 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Commissions and risks involved in stock transactions - for stock transactions, we charge stock commissions and consumption tax by multiplying the transaction amount by the commission rate agreed with each customer. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of share price fluctuations and other factors. Transactions in foreign stocks can lead to additional losses stemming from foreign exchange fluctuations. We may also charge commissions and fees for certain categories of investment advice, products and services. Recommended investment strategies, products and services carry the risk of losses to principal and other losses as a result of changes in market and/- or economic trends, and/or fluctuations in market value. Before deciding on the purchase of financial products and/or services, customers should carefully read the Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476248 Page 81 EFTA01476249 8 December 2015 World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity relevant disclosures, prospectuses and other documentation. "Moody's", "Standard & Poor's", and "Fitch" mentioned in this report are not registered credit rating agencies in Japan unless Japan or "Nippon" is specifically designated in the name of the entity. Reports on Japanese listed companies not written by analysts of DSI are written by Deutsche Bank Group's analysts with the coverage companies specified by DSI. Some of the foreign securities stated on this report are not disclosed according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan. 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Page 82 Deutsche Bank AG/London EFTA01476251 David Folkerts-Landau Chief Economist and Global Head of Research Raj Hindocha Global Chief Operating Officer Research Michael Spencer Regional Head Asia Pacific Research International Locations Deutsche Bank AG Deutsche Bank Place Level 16 Corner of Hunter & Phillip Streets Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia Tel: (61) 2 8258 1234 Deutsche Bank AG London 1 Great Winchester Street London EC2N 2EQ United Kingdom Tel: (44) 20 7545 8000 Deutsche Bank AG Grote GallusstraRe 10-14 60272 Frankfurt am Main Germany Tel: (49) 69 910 00 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 60 Wall Street New York, NY 10005 United States of America Tel: (1) 212 250 2500 Deutsche Bank AG Filiale Hongkong International Commerce Centre, 1 Austin Road West,Kowloon, Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2203 8888 Deutsche Securities Inc. 2-11-1 Nagatacho Sanno Park Tower Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-6171 Japan Tel: (81) 3 5156 6770 Marcel Cassard Global Head FICC Research & Global Macro Economics Ralf Hoffmann Regional Head Deutsche Bank Research, Germany Steve Pollard Global Head EFTA01476252 Equity Research Andreas Neubauer Regional Head Equity Research, Germany GRCM2015PROD034979 EFTA01476253