From: Daniel Sabba
Sent: Wednesday, March 4, 2015 10:16 PM
To: Jeffrey E.
Cc: Richard Kahn; Vahe Stepanian; Ariane Dwyer
Subject: FW: EOD Commodities Note - 4 Mar
Jeffrey — see be=ow for trading commentary. Another day of lower vol.
Prateek Jain
Sent: Wednesday, March 04, 2015 5:12 PM
Subject: EOD Commodities Note - 4 Mar
Oil
Wild ride in WTI today around the inventory data. To=al crude inventories built a whopping 10.3m, with 5.4m build in P3
of whic= 3.5m can be attributed to increase in imports. P2 builts (+3.3) were =ore surprising given the net reduction in
imports. However, Cushing built only 500k! Given how closely everyone i= watching Cushing inventories in expectation
of reaching tank tops there, =rb and wti prompt spreads rallied quickly after the initial selloff in fla=price, eventually
causing a flatprice reversal and a $2 rally from the lows. WTI spreads roofed today, and even =hough Apr15 closed about
lusd higher, Dec15 ended 37c weaker for the day. =n product world, Gasoline inventories showed a small build against
expecte= draw, and distillates drew 1.7m.
Oil Vols
&=bsp; &nb=p; =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (/change)
115 &nbs=; =nbsp; 45.30% -5.10% =nbsp; 47=45% -1.90%
M15 &nbs=; =nbsp; 44.40% -1.80% =nbsp; &nb=p; 43.10% -0.20%
Z1.5 &=bsp; &nbs=; 32.75% -0.15% = 31.75%&=bsp; +0.35%
Z16 &nbs=; &=bsp; 24.75% -0.10% =nbsp; 24=65% +0.40%
Base Metals
3m Ivls &nb=p; =nbsp; dod change&nbs=; support = resistance
Al $1800 &n=sp; +$12 = &n=sp; $1750 = $1800
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Cu $5837 &n=sp; +$15 = $=800 = $6000
Zn $2032 &n=sp; = +$1 =nbsp; &nb=p; $2030 =nbsp; $2150
Ni $13,930 =nbsp; &nb=p; +$2 &nbs=; $13,500 = $=4,000
Pb $1774 &n=sp; = +$26 = $=750 = $1855
The base complex started the day weak on a downturn =n EUR/USD but picked up around 12:30. Jobs data in the US
and the gr=wth targets coming out of China's National People's Congress t=morrow will be key to that direction of prices
in coming days. The Chinese growth target is expected to be around 7% f=r 2015. Marex spectron's copper sentiment
index recovered to -=4.7 from -95.7 in late Jan, but remains bearish. Chinese copper demand is =aning causing stocks to
rise significantly in recent days. Nickel rose - $200 at 11:15 with options expiry. Chinese =emand is set to rise as a
government order closes some nickel pig iron fac=ories on environmental concerns. The bearish view on nickel
revolves=around weakening steel prices and if they translate through to stainless steel, which uses nickel as a key
ingredient. A=uminum prices rose above $1800 intraday but came back down for the close.&=bsp; Norsk Hydro sees the
Aluminum market in deficit for the next 4 years =s demand from the auto industry continues to rise, but believes that
high stocks are currently limiting prices and a= these run down prices will rise.
Shanghai Aluminum on warrant stocks are up 2.79% to =5 kMT. LME Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 1747 kMT
Shanghai =opper on warrant stocks are up 2.82% to 61.8 kMT. LME Copper stocks are do=n 0.33% to 267 kMT. LME
Nickel stocks are down 2.71% to 314 kMT.
Copper Vols are down 0.5% in the front , Ali Vols ar= unch, Nickel Vols are up 1% in the back, Lead Vols are unch Zinc
Vo=s unch
Upcoming Data
3/3- Wards US Total Vehicle Sales- Sury 16.7m, Ac=ual 16.16m, Prior 16.56m
3/3- Wards US Domestic Vehicle Sales- Sury 13.4m,=Actual 12.87m, Prior 13.31m
4/3- HSBC China Composite PMI-Actual 50, Prior 51=7
4/3-RBI Reverse Repo Rate Actual 6.5%, Prior 6.75=
4/3-Markit Eurozone Composite PMI- Sury 57.5, Act=al 56.7, Prior 57.2
4/3- EC retail sales MoM- Surb 0.2%, Actual 1.1%,=Prior 0.3%, Revised 0.4%
4/3-Markit US Composite PMI- Actual 57.2, Prior 5=.8
</=pan>
Regards,
Prateek
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