To: Paul S Barre
From: Jeffrey Epstein
Sent Wed 10/13/2010 1:41:08 PM
Subject Re: Update and ideas
ok to both
On Wed, Oct 13, 2010 at 3:38 PM, Paul S Barrett wrote:
Morning Jeffrey
A few things:
- macro trading environment remains tough with all the central bank intervention and quant casing
programs distorting the markets
-I think the opportunities will in specific themes or single name ideas
41 - Buy AMR Converts 6.25% 2014 (Spot = $6.42; Conversion Px = $9.90)
- we should buy 2MM of this
JPM analyst raised Dec-II price target to $13.50 from $12.50 a few weeks ago, implying 115%
upside. This compares to average coverage upside of 45% (8 names covered).
Historically, buying airlines in September-October and holding until April or May yielded positive
returns 90% of the time.
AMR is highly leveraged yet the analyst believes deleveraging and balance sheet repair will be main
industry themes over next year
#2 - buy ARS denominated Argentine GDP Warrants (these are warrants issued by the
government with the payout linked to nominal GDP growth)
- Px target ARS22.09 ($5.59); current ARS12.64 ($3.20)
- would do $10MM notional which costs $320,000
Will call you shortly to discuss
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Paul
Paul Barrett, CFA
Managing Director
Global Investment Opportunities Group
JPMorgan Private Bank
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