EFTA02030874

Jeffrey Big catalyst for Gilead GILD tomorrow. If our analyst is right, the stock could be up 20% tomorrow. Let's buy $50 strike April calls for 50.85 Expectations on SVR4 for `7977• Street expectations: 40-50% and as high as 60% JPMe: 70% Stock moves once see the SVR4 data: <30%: down —15-20% <40% : down —5-10% 40-50%: not much changed >60%: up 5-10% >70%: home run and would be up 20%+ EFTA_R1_00540831 EFTA02030874 Abstracts for the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) are expected to come out tomorrow (conference is April 18-22). Exact timing is unclear, but our research team is expecting the abstracts to come out between 10-11 AM ET. This will be a key event for the HepC space with stock moving data for GILD and BMY and updates coming from VRTX and IDIX. GILD: Key data will be SVR at 4 weeks for the GTI/naive population. It is unclear if the abstracts will actually include the SVR data or if we will have to wait to the actual conference. In addition to the `7977 data, GILD may also release additional data on combination studies which give a peak into their non-7977 assets. Expectations on SVR4 for `7977: Street expectations: 40-50% and as high as 60% JPMe: 70% Stock moves once see the SVR4 data• <30%: down —15-20% <40% : down —5-10% 40-50%: not much changed >60%: up 5-10% >70%: home run and would be up 20%+ Some very basic info on the HepC space that should be helpful when looking at some of these releases. Genotypes: EFTA_R1_00540832 EFTA02030875 There are 7 genotypes for HepC with Genotype 1 (GT1) being the most common (-70% of patients in the US). These are almost the most difficult patients to treat. Other common genotypes are 2 and 3 (GT 2/3) which are much easier to treat. The remaining genotypes (4-7) are very infrequent and not much commercial appeal. Important GTI subgroups: Within Gil there is GTIa and Glib which are about equally distributed. The GT1a is harder to treat than Glib. Endpoints: RVR (rapid viral response) — measured after 4 weeks ON treatment EVR (early virologic response) — measured after 12 weeks ON treatment SVR (sustained viorlogic response) — measured at X weeks AFTER treatment — this is often the `cure rate' I L28 polymorphism: This is another indicator in determining how difficult the virus is to treat CC: easiest to treat CT: intermediate TT: hardest DISCLAIMERS: THIS IS NOT A PRODUCT OF JPM RESEARCH. OPINIONS MAY DIFFER IN THE SHORT TERM. EFTA_R1_00540833 EFTA02030876 Amanda Ens I Vice President I Global Investment Opportunities I J.P.Morgan I NMLS ID: 853443 320 Park Ave, 14th Floor, New York, NY 10022 EFTA_R1_00540834 EFTA02030877