EFTA02114961

From: Sent: Tue 2/4/2014 10:59:34 AM Subject: Early Tour 2.4.14 Good Morning ... European Markets off 0-95 bps (periphery outperforming, IBEX +0.13%, DAX -0.91%) NKY -4.18%, SHCOMP (closed), HSI -2.89%, KOSPI -1.72%, TWSE (closed), ASX -1.75% EUR 1.3518 (-0.05%) JPY 101.271 (-0.28%) EUR/JPY 136.90 (+0.24%) AUD +1.43% NZD +0.81% GBP +0.18% Spain 10yr 3.75% Italy 3.79% Portugal 10yr 5.05% US 10yr 2.60% Futures: Dow +28, Nasdaq +6, S&P +5 DXY $81.10 (+9c) Crude $96.56 (+13c) Gold $1254.10 (- $5.80) Copper +0.35% Silver -0.41% Nat Gas +2.57% Asian indices continue to get hit in heavier volume as the global selloff continues. Hong Kong closes on the lows -2.89% after coming back online following the CNY holiday and the weaker macro data that was out over the weekend. Mainland China and Taiwan remain closed. Japan once again underperformed the rest of the region with the stronger JPY not helping sentiment. The Topix (-4.8%) entered into correction as it closed down -13% from the January 8 high. The Mothers index (-10%) was decimated reflecting retail cutting down on losses. The Nikkei closed -4.18% and is now -14.01% ytd. Australia also ended on the lows -1.75% after the RBA left rates unchanged at 2.5% as expected but moved away from its easing bias (sending the AUD +1.43%). European markets opened weaker in sympathy with the overnight moves in the US/Asia, then started to recover with the periphery trading higher before eventually rolling back over a bit. Sector-wise, banks are the notable outperformer (SX7P +0.41%) on a story that ECB's Draghi is seeking German support in the bond sterilization debate (Bloomberg). In single-stock earnings related news: Neste Oil is +9.3% after beating estimates (high short interest name), UBS +5.7% after beating #'s on stronger wealth management performance, Vestas Wind -6.0% after beating numbers but also announcing it will sell up to 20.4M new shares, Arm Holdings -3.5% on slower royalty revenue growth, Ocado -4.5% as numbers come in ok but co-founder is retiring and stock has had a good run, and KPN -4.2% as revs & ebitda miss estimates. There will be plenty of earnings to chew through in the US today as well. SPA's recovering a bit of yesterday's drawdown, currently +5 handles = 1738 last (vs morning high of 1743.50). ***ISM New York 9:45am, Factory Orders © 10amm "'ADM, BDX, BSX, CLX, CME, DLPH, ETN, GCI, IP, KORS, R, SIRI, XYL pre-open'" ***AFL, BWLD, CERN, CHRW, DV, EQR, GILD, MAC, UNM #'s after the close"' EFTA_R1_00740436 EFTA02114961 • Yum! Brands profit slipped but adjusted earnings beat on growth in Intl division (trading +4%) • Suncor slight dip in operating earnings & cut production forecast (dividend hike & addtl buyback) • Edward Lifesciences eps/revs beat but mitral program not yet begun (trading -2.5%) • General Growth profit surged as revenue beat expectations & sees 2014 ffo higher (trading inline) • Hartford beat ests as swung from loss to big O4 profit on lower net realized cap losses (trading +2%) • Anadarko Petroleum solid O4 with total production beating estimates but eps missed • John Malone in prelim talks with CVC about buying a Formula One stake ($9B valuation) (FT) • UBS Q4 net income beats, revs light (IB good/WM below), solid CT1 @ 12.8%, tax gain (trading +5.7%) • Munich Re prelims O4: revs light, net good, raising div to E7.25 from E7 a year ago (in line) (trading +0.50%) • KPN Q4 sales miss, EBITDA below, expects FCF growth in 2015, plans to resume div €0.07 p/s (trading -4.2%) • Klepierre FY lease income improving y/y, retail real estate okay, proposes €1.55 p/s (trading - 2.0%) • Wendel looking to refinance E1.3B of existing loans for Materis ahead of possible IPO for unit (trading -0.50%) • Neste Oil O4 profit beats, EPS ahead, net sales shade better, renewables performing (trading +9.3%) • BP Q4 adj net inline, revs light, talking down O1, cash flow muted, guiding 2014 production lower (trading -1.5%) • BG Group O4 revs good, stronger LNG offsets weaker E&P, nothing new post recent profit warning (trading +1.0%) • Ocado FY revs good, EBITDA inline, net income solid, positive outlook, co-founder Gissing to retire (trading -4.5%) • TalkTalk O3 IMS: revs +5.1%, on track to accomplish FY and mid-term targets, CEO upbeat outlook (trading +0.80%) • Arm Q4 revs ahead, EPS better, order backlog slightly down, licensing solid, sees FY revs inline with ests (trading -3.5%) • Electrocomponents IMS: N America severely impacted by adverse weather conditions, solid growth in other regions (trading -4.5%) • AMS FY: revs light, EPS inline, propose E1.04 div, lowers rev guidance due to weak outlook on Asian OEM's shift (trading -13%) EFTA_R1_00740437 EFTA02114962 • Orion Q4 revs ahead. op income line, propose div of€1.25 pis, estimates 2014 to be similar to 2013 (trading +1.1,1) • Fortum O4 EPS miss, revs below, EBIT worse, propose div E1.1 p/s, healthy pipeline (trading +3.0%) • Cargotec O4 revs ahead of estimates, EBIT ok, orders good, upbeat outlook (trading +7.0%) • HIQ International O4 revs light, EBIT below, EPS under, propose SEK 2.60 dividend (trading - 1.0%) • CDON Group Q4 revs light, EBIT miss, EPS below, strategy to focus on delivering solid sales growth (trading +2.3%) • Kesko O4 revs inline, EBIT ahead, EPS better, proposes €1.40 p/s, sees consumer demand still weak (trading +8.4%) • TDC O4 revs light, EBITDA below, top line weak, 2014 guidance soft, sees organic growth softening (trading -2.7%) • Vestas O4 good, revs ahead, EBITDA better, 10% capital issue, solid guidance (trading -6.0%) • Axfood Q4 revs flat, op income ahead, propose higher div of SEK15 p/s, aims for 2014 to exceed 2013 (trading +2.6%) • Euro Disney O1 revs decrease y/y, theme park revs lightening, hotels and Disney Village okay (trading -1.2%) • BCP O4: loss exceeds (restructuring charges), NPL ratio improves, NIl light, Capital ahead (trading +5.0%) • Nestle said to explore sale of frozen-food unit Davigel for - €300 million according to Reuters (trading -1.0%) • Eurozone December PPI +0.2% m/m versus estimate +0.2% (-0.8% y/y versus estimate -0.8%) • Spain January net unemployment +113.1k rn/m versus estimate +100k (prior -107.6k) • Hedge Fund chief (David Salanic, Tortus Capital) makes a lonely bet against Portugal's debt (NYT) • Sharp easily beats ests on stronger LCD and solar profitability & guides up (#'s out after close) • Toyota reports better than forecast O3 Ws and raises FY forecast (Ws out after the close) • Lenovo closed -15% after multiple broker downgrades after $5 billion spending spree last month Leading European Sectors: Banks +0.45%, Utilities +0.15%, Insurance +0.02% Lagging European Sectors: Autos/Parts -1.51%, Chemicals -0.94%, Telco -0.89% EFTA_R1_00740438 EFTA02114963 CFN revs beat — RTEC eps beat — WSTL strong eps PSMI gm view missed — IDTI forecast above — HOLX good outlook DNB missed ests — POWI eps/revs topped — DXCM fda approval STLY 30c adj loss/shr — NLST #'s better — ILMN additional $250M buyback Secondaries (announced/priced): HALO, CPHD (convert), USAC, ABIO, VWS DC IPO's (lock-up expires): Cvent (CVT), Frank's International (Fl), Mix Telematics (MIXT), Stock Building Supply (SICK), World Point Terminals (WPT), Midstream Partners (QEP) US Key Research: Barcap initiates GLYC/GASS (ow), DB upgrades EWBC (buy), Barrington upgrades ANGI • Jefferies downgrades SLCA & upgrades PFE (buy), Jefferies & Stifel initiates GLYC (buy) • Roth upgrades CRM (buy) & initiates KIN (buy), Topeka initiates AMCX/LGF/MSG (buy) • KBW upgrades CATY, Raja upgrades CVX (strong buy), JMP downgrades CACC • CS upgrades DVN & downgrades HP, RBC upgrades DRE, JPM downgrades NEM Citi adds RMBS to Focus List & upgrades OPEN and AGN (buy), DB initiates BFB (buy) Europe Key Research: ABN initiate HAS LN (b), downgrade COLR BB, BofAML upgrade ATLN SW • Barc downgrade PFI LN, BKG LN, Citi upgrade AMS SJ, • Berenberg upgrade LR FP, SKYD GY, LXS GY, initiate PAH3 GY (b) • Bern upgrade SBRY LN, Danske downgrade ALKB DC • Exane upgrade PNN LN, HSBC downgrade POP SM, VOW GY, upgrade BMW GY Investec upgrade RSW LN, resume NXT LN (h), Lampe downgrade DBK GY JPM downgrade GALP PL, REP SM, KepChev initiate BOL FP (b) • Medio downgrade LLOY LN, MS upgrade BBA LN, Espirito upgrade BCP PL EFTA_R1_00740439 EFTA02114964 Natixis upgrade BKIA SM, initiate AKZA NA (b), Nordea d/g SAND SS, u/g SAA1V FH Oddo upgrade CAS FP, Oriel upgrade OCDO LN, SocGen downgrade NDA GY Reporting Pre-Open: ADM, BDX, BSX, CLX, CME, DLPH, EMR, ETN, FIS, GCI, IP, KORS, MHFI, R, SE, SIRI, XYL, ABG, ACI, ACM, AGCO, AMG, ARRY, AXE, BHE, CHD, CNC, DFZ, DHX, DWSN, ENIG, HCA, HW, IDXX, LABL, LG, LIOX, LRN, LRY, MDU, SEP, SPA, ST, SYNL, TDG, TECH, UDR, VSH, WDR Reporting Post-Close: AFL, AMP, CERN, CHRW, EQR, GAS, GILD, GNW, MAC, UNM, ACLS, AEC, ARWR, ATO, ATW, AXS, BIRT, BSAC, BWLD, CBL, CENT, CERN, CODE, CRDC, CSGS, CVD, DATA, DV, ESIO, EXP, GAIN, GHDX, HAIN, HCSG, HI, HMN, JKHY, KEYW, LRAD, MANH, MWA, MYGN, NANO, OCLR, OMCL, PACB, PIKE, POWL, PTIE, PTP, ANST, RNR, RDW, THOR, ULGX, ULTI, USNA, VASC, VPFG, VTSS, XOOM Economic Data: ISM New York @ 9:45am, Factory Orders / IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism @ 10am API crude oil inventories © 4:30pm Fed Speakers: Lacker c 8:30am (Winchester, VA), Evans 12:30pm (Detroit) Conferences: No major conferences AnalysUlnyestor Days: UGHS, SAP Non-Deal Roadshows: ALV, BRCM, EGHT, ENPH, JDSU, MTDR, NEOG, NOK, NVS, ORMP, PDCE, RVBD, VMW Shareholder Meetings: OSK, GBDC, IESC, EMR, DLB, SEV, SRDX, ROK Equity/Mixed SheIfs: ARP, STML ($150M) EFTA_R1_00740440 EFTA02114965 Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ cautious: Commodities WSJ • Time to Buy Stocks on the Dip? Barron's • Firms Pinched by Pressure to Hold Down Their Prices WSJ • Erdogan Targets Turkish Diaspora During German Trip WSJ • Top Corporate Executives Scored Big in 2013 Rally WSJ • Buffalo Wild Wings Needs a Timeout WSJ • Apple Quietly Builds New Networks WSJ • Spying Fears Abroad Hurt U.S. Tech Firms WSJ • Fractures Emerge Between Obama, Congressional Democrats WSJ • Attempting to Code the Human Brain WSJ • Al Qaeda Disavows Rebel Group Fighting Syrian Regime WSJ • Hoffman's Heroin Points to Surge in Grim Trade NYT • Full Picture of Airlines' Punctuality Is Elusive NYT • Detroit Turns Bankruptcy Into Challenge of Banks NYT • Too Many Sorry Excuses for Apology NYT • Scottish fund managers fear break-up bill FT • Rise in vacancies and skills shortages put pressure on pay FT • A prosperous Germany also worries about the cost of EU migrants FT • Bankers adjust their bonus caps FT • Brazil suffers record trade deficit FT • The future still belongs to the emerging markets FT • Oil: Are you being served? Lex • Ryanair. going mainstream Lex • Chinese social media: Here Weibo Lex EFTA_R1_00740441 EFTA02114966 • Lloyds: painful payments Lex • What's pink, greedy and acts like a banker? The Times • Economy is making progress towards balanced recovery The Times • Das Capital: Trust in banks wanes as savers find other ways to protect their money Independent • Central banks can only offer sticking plasters, yet their power grows by the day Telegraph • Alcohol, smoking and obesity fuel 'alarming' global cancer surge Guardian • Three Anglo Irish executives blamed for Irish banking crisis go on trial Guardian • The City needs to start planning for a leftist Labour government CitvAM • We mustn't delude ourselves about the scale of the crisis Britain went through CityAM Key Events This Week Wednesday: Non-manufacturing ISM, MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Eurozone services/composite PMI, Eurozone retail sales, Cowen Aerospace/Defense and Transportation Conference, Earnings (ADP, AGN, CCE, EL, HUM, MRK, NDAW, RL, TWX, AIZ, ALL, DIS, FMC, GMCR, LNC, MRO, ORLY, PRU, SRCL, XL) Thursday: Jan Retailer same-store-sales, Challenger Job Cuts, Nonfarm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs, Trade Balance, ECB & BOE rate decision, Earnings (AET, CMI, DO, DNKN, FOXA, GM, K, NBL, PM, SEE, SNA, WEC, ATVI, EXPE, NWSA, ZNGA) Friday: January Employment Report, Debt ceiling deadline (Treasury can use extraordinary measures for - 1 month past this date), Consumer Credit, XXII Olympic Winter Games begin (Sochi, Russia), Earnings (CI, FLIR, MCO, WYN) Key Events on the Horizon Feb 17 — Presidents' Day in the US (Markets Closed) Feb 20 - G20 Fin Min meeting in Sydney begins EFTA_R1_00740442 EFTA02114967 March — Local elections in Turkey Mar 4 — Obama to publish his budget Apr 11 - DBRS to decide on whether to downgrade Spain or Italy Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd 'Stamford, CT 06901 1 St (203) 302-7300 1 ikefttourmalinelic.com This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and Intended only for the person or entity to which It Is addressed. 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