EFTA02123847

From: Sent: Thur 10/31/2013 10:06:37 AM Subject: Early Tour 10.31.13 Good Morning ... European Markets off 0-40 bps (Italy +0.67%, Spain +0.28%)... NKY -1.20%, SHCOMP -0.87%, HSI -0.50%, KOSPI -1.43%, TWSE -0.18%, ASX -0.10% EUR 1.3704 (-0.23%) JPY 98.28 (+0.23%) EUR/JPY 134.67 (-0.47%) NZD 0.8278 (+0.14%) AUD 0.9509 (+0.26%) US 10yr 2.51% Japan 10yr 0.59% Germany 10yr 1.69% Portugal 10yr 6.22% Italy 10yr 4.15% Spain 10yr 4.02% Futures: Dow -27, Nasdaq -15, S&P -4 0XY $79/82 (+4c) Crude $96.77 (unch) Gold $1335.80 (- $13.50) Copper -0.60% Silver -2.69% APAC indices are lower following overnight weakness as the FOMC statement was more hawkish than expected. South Korea underperformed as the KOSPI posted the biggest fall this month as foreigner finally turned net sellers after a record 44 straight days of buying. Japanese equities also struggled amid the biggest reporting day for earnings and month end. Markets were modestly lower for most of the session before an ECB official commented mid-afternoon that liquidity will be provided after the LTRO expiration, which affected FX markets and sent Nikkei sharply lower. The BOJ left policy unchanged and said it will retain plans for JPY60-70 trillion annual rise in monetary base. China and Hong Kong also fell although mainland developers bucked the trend as President Xi said will speed up public housing construction. Australian September building permits came in strong at +14.4% MoM vs. consensus at +2.8% expected. Most European markets pulling back a bit this morning (Italy & Spain outperforms) with continued better than expected earnings from BNP Paribas, Anheuser-Bush InBev, Alcatel-Lucent etc offsetting yesterday's Fed's comments (odds of US central bank starting to taper stimulus in January rose to 45% from 25%). Continued big movers in after-hours yesterday following #'s, led by Facebook initially jumping 10% following the strong release but pullback (currently +2.5%) after warning of declining use by teenagers. Month End today (S&P mtd +4.86% / ytd +23.64%). SPAs -4.5 handles = 1756 last before Jobless Claims release © 8:30am. -- Jobless Claims 8:30am, Sept Chicago PMI 9:45am*** —*ABC, AVP, CAH, CI, CLX, DISCA, MA, TWC, XOM pre-open"" AIV, FLR, FSLR, NEM, NU, PSA, RSG, SWN reports after close"' EFTA_R1_00759679 EFTA02123847 • Facebook crushed #'s on mobile ads but young teens leaving (now eligible for S&P 500) (trading +2.5% was +10%) • Expedia Q3 beat across board (ebitda,eps,revs,bookings) (NAmerica drove upside) (trading +20%) • JDS Uniphase solid O1 but forecast revenues below estimates ($420M-$440M vs $457.8M) (trading -8%) • Kraft profit +7.3% bolstered by cost savings but revs fell due to split from MDLZ (raises y reps view) (trading inline) • Marriott O3 revpar & fee revs stronger but share buyback light (O4 guidance touch light) (trading inline) • Starbucks eps beat & profit up but forecast trailed estimates as Asia sales gains slowed (boosts div) (trading -2.4%) • Visa eps meets & payments up but posts 28% drop in Q4 profit (new $58 buyback plan) (trading - 3%) • Avis Budget eps missed & net fell on prior year tax benefit (inline with expectations) (narrows year view) • Weight Watchers Q3 profit down & suspends 17.5c dividend, says 'challenging year ahead (trading - 15%) • Boston Red Sox crushed St Louis last night 6-1 to win World Series at Fenway (Ortiz MVP after hitting .688) • Royal Dutch Shell Q3 adj profit below, big upstream miss, downstream in line, total production in line (trading -4.6%) • Alcatel Lucent Q3 revs good, EPS in line, op margins +ve, sees strong O4, exceeding cost expectations (trading +18%) • AB Inbev O3 organic rev growth light, EBITDA better, org beer volume ahead, div better, Mexican synergies (trading +1.5%) • Total Q3 revs better, EBIT & EPS in line, focused on 2015-17 objectives, weak Euro refining margins (trading -1.2%) • Bayer O3 revs slight below, EBITDA in line, EPS ahead, confirms guidance, repeats goals, +ve Cropsciences (trading -0.4%) • Novo Nordisk O3 net below, revs in line, op profit okay, Victoza sales light, lowers 2013 guidance on FX (trading -3.6%) • BNP O3 net income beats, revs light, underlying mixed, CIB pretax in line, CT1 10.8%, other activities beat (trading +2.9%) • Glencore Xstrata O3 copper output increases 23%, zinc +9%, gold +13%, profitability in line (trading -1.1%) EFTA_R1_00759680 EFTA02123848 • Ingenico Q3 revs okay, raising 2013 organic rev and EBITDA guidance, big short base (trading +6.7%) • BG O3 adj profit beats, production down 10% in the US, Egyptian business remains difficult (trading +1.9%) • Astrazeneca O3 revs below, core EPS miss, higher costs, Marc Dunoyer Named CF), reit rev guidance (trading -1.6%) • BT O2 revs & EBITDA in line, EPS ahead, reaffirms outlook, good underlying trends, BT Sport +2mn subs (trading -0.7%) • Telenor O3 revs in line, EBITDA better, EPS miss, lowers organic rev growth, reaffirms EBITDA margin (trading -3.8%) • Danske Bank O3 total income, net miss, trading big miss, cuts FY net income forecast range (trading +1.5%) • Technip Q3 revs in line, EBITDA light, EPS miss, increased backlog, lowering guidance (trading - 7%) • Polarcus O3 revs light, EBITDA in line, EPS shade ahead, mixed outlook (trading -2.8%) • Jeronimo Martins O3 revs in line, EBITDA light, EPS shade below, sees double digit sales growth (trading -3.1%) • Geberit O3 sales & EBITDA better, sees solid FY results, construction industry remains challenging (trading +4.5%) • Randstad O3 EBITA better, growth per working day ahead, CEO leaving after 11 years, guidance okay (trading +2.4%) • Lufthansa O3 (headlines last week), yields in line, cost savings ahead, solid cash, FY profit at low end (trading -1.9%) • Hugo Boss O3 revs below, adj EBITDA & EPS light, more favourable mix, retail comp sales okay (trading +0.8%) • GEA Q3 revs in line, op EBIT better, net income miss, orders solid, repeats 2013 forecasts (trading +0.4%) • Rexel O3 sales in line, Europe weak, Latam strong, maintain FY organic sales target (trading +2.9%) • Nokian Renkaat O3 net sales light, net income in line, pretax below, maintains 2013 guidance (trading +5.4%) • Croda Q3 weak, PBT & margins below, sees CH profit flat, currency weakness, subdued market (trading -7.7%) • Wacker Chemie Q3 sales & EBITDA miss, retained payments miss, repeats sales & earnings forecasts (trading -4.8%) EFTA_R1_00759681 EFTA02123849 • Lonza Q3 business update, reiterates 2013 core EBIT growth, performance remains on track (trading +1.1%) • Acerinox Q3 revs & EBITDA light, EBIT better, net income ahead, cautiously optimistic outlook (trading -0.2%) • Air France Q3 revs & op earnings in line, sees 2014 EBITDA at bottom of range, H2 improvement (trading -1.2%) • Straumann O3 revs in line, sees continues European weakness, upbeat for N America (trading +3.1%) Leading European Sectors: Autos/Parts +1.23%, Banks +0.81%, Tech +0.68% Lagging European Sectors: Chemicals -0.67%, Oil & Gas -0.66%, Healthcare -0.41% ALL profit slides — CSC eps beat — LNC $4B reinsurance deal with Wells Fargo O1 inline Q3 — EQR ffo meets — MET eps trailed estimates ATML boosts buyback — CAVM gm expansion — DRIV loss narrower, guide down ELX Q2 outlook topped — ISIL eps beat — MCHP revs stronger MERU revs missed — ROVI big eps miss — SHOR Ws better SWKS rev outlook solid — MLNX ceo/cfo 10b5-1 stock plan — SPRT new cfo/coo ISIL sees eps above — ITMN boosts low end — UNTD revs better SGI suspends guidance — PPC wider margins — JIVE Ws topped RATE eps missed — ARRS eps beat — PRAA revs ahead of ests SPWR Q4 view midpt trailed — QUIK solid — PFPT raises yr rev view Secondaries (announced/priced): ICLD, EGAS, WDC, DSCO, YELP IPO's (filed/priced): Marcus & Millichap (MMI) 6M shares priced at $12, Essent Group (ESNT) priced 19.7m shrs at $17 EFTA_R1_00759682 EFTA02123850 IPO's (lock-up expires): Tableau Software (DATA) US Key Research: • Brean upgrades ITRI, BTIG initiates ESNT (buy), ISI downgrades MDAS Jefferies downgrades SEE, RBC downgrades PRTA, Canaccord cuts FLR Bofa downgrades UMC, Piper initiates WNC (ow), Opco initiates FEYE (perform) Evercore reinstates CPWR (ow), Raja cuts SAIAICVD, BMO downgrades FB CS upgrades HES, UBS downgrades MX, Mizuho upgrades MCHP, Barcap cuts NICE Dougherty downgrades SODA, Wells downgrades SO, Bofa downgrades UMC ▪ Piper initiates WNC, Compass Point upgrades HTS (buy), Citi cuts SEE/MBT • FBR initiates OMCUCERN (op) & CPSI/MDRX/ATHNNCRA (mp) OSII (up) Europe Key Research: • UBS initiate ACA FP (b), DBK reinstate FNC IM (5), Oddo upgrade MAP SM Berenberg upgrade GFTU LN, TPK LN, downgrade RIA FP, SEB downgrade STL NO, upgrade POH1S FH SocGen downgrade IBE SM, upgrade CLN VX, GS downgrade LOND LN Maq remove ENI IM from cony buy, JEFF downgrade OR FP, upgrade HNE3 GY • Norea downgrade STL NO, Lampe upgrade BAS GY, downgrade FRA GY Natixis upgrade SAN FP, ENI IM, Akros downgrade F IM, upgrade IND IM • CBK downgrade SIE GY, KepChev downgrade DB1 GY, VOE AV Reporting Pre-Open: ABC, AVP, BEAM, CAH, CI, CLX, COP, DISCA, EL, HAR, IRM, IVZ, MA, MPC, MYL, NI, PNW, PPL, PRGO, PWR, SCG, TDC, TE, TWO, XOM, AAP, ALKS, ANR, AYR, BGCP, BLC, BWEN, BWINB, BYD, CIR, CNHI, COR, CPLP, CRR, DGI, DRII, DSPG, EPD, EPL, EVER, FCH, FIG, FLML, GCAP, GENT, GPX, GT', GTLS, HBIO, HHS, HSH, HSON, I, ICGE, IDCC, IFMI, INCY, INOD, IQNT, IRDM, ITC, ITG, ITT, IVZ, JRN, KEM, KOPN, LANG, LECO, LIOX, LIQD, LKQ, LMOS, LOJN, MD, MDCI, MEG, MGM, MMP, MMYT, MOD, MPLX, MSCI, NIHD, NKA, NMM, NYT, OCN, ORBK, ORN, OSK, PBF, PCRX, PDCE, PRLB, Q, RAS, REIS, RFP, RNO, ROCK, ROIC, SFY, SHOO, SIR, SMA, SMP, SRI, STFC, STRA, THRM, TUC, TYPE, ULBI, VICL, VPHM, WNR, WST, WWE, ZEUS, EFTA_R1_00759683 EFTA02123851 O, SNAK Reporting Post-Close: AIG, AIV, FLR, FSLR, NEM, NU, PSA, RSG, SWN, ADNC, AMRS, AMSF, ANH, ARRY, ARSD, AVD, BAGL, BBG, BODY, CALD, CEC, CHEF, CLVS, CODE, CPSI, CPT, CTRL, CVCO, CDT, DGII, DRC, EDE, ELLI, EPAY, ERIE, ESIO, ETRM, FFG, FLR, FNHC, FRT, GDOT, GSIT, HME, HTCH, HTSI, IMMR, KMPR, KOG, KRG, LRE, LTRX, MERC, MHK, MRC, MTX, MTZ, NATI, NILE, OEH, OMCL, ONNN, OPLK, PDM, RCKY, REG, SEM, SPF, SSNC, TLAB, TRMB, UPIP, WRI Economic Data: RBC Consumer Outlook Index @ 7:30am, Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, ISM Milwaukee @ 9am, Chicago PMI / Bloomberg Consumer Comfort @ 9:45am EIA natural gas storage @ 10:30am Conferences: No major conferences Analyst/Investor Days: TQNT, EW, NMM Non-Deal Roadshows: ASC, BABY, CTXS, CVLT, GSVC, LPTN, REX, SLH, SNN, TSI, USG, XOOM Shareholder Meetings: CMRE, DRYS, ORIG, PIKE, WBMD, CEMI, ORCL, TECH Equity/Mixed Shelfs: CELG, FUBC ($150M), MHO ($400M), AVGO, TTMI ($250M) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ cautious: Facebook (FB) WSJ Barclays (BARC LN) WSJ • Red Sox cap season with World Series title Boston Globe • Google 'outraged' by latest surveillance claims FT EFTA_R1_00759684 EFTA02123852 • Qatar fund quietly builds $1bn Bank of America stake FT • Queen adds royal consent to press regulation charter FT • Olympics and Abenomics boost Japan FT • US budget deficit falls below 5700bn FT • Fed stays the course on bond buying FT • End western deference to Saudi petrodollars FT • High profits to keep equity bubble at bay FT • Russia and shale can solve Europe's energy problem FT • Taiwan growth stalls as exports falter FT • Barack Obama: I hear what you say, Angela FT • Health check and rates creep leave ECB in a dilemma FT • US car sales motor again as demand rescues world's auto industry FT • Nintendo: When bad news is good Lex • Facebook: mobile ad revolution Lex • Barclays: There's a hole in my bucket Lex • Teva: a mess, but priced right Lex • Export Prowess Lifts Spain From Recession WSJ • U.S. Blasts Germany's Economic Policies WSJ • BOJ Keeps Bullish Inflation Forecast WSJ • Fed Opts to Stay Course, for Now WSJ • Eike Batista's Empire Soared, Then Melted Into Bankruptcy WSJ • Progressive Government Fails WSJ • Banks Seek Bonus Alternatives WSJ • Earlier Nasdaq Glitch Cued Talk, No Action WSJ • Exxon: A Tiger That Doesn't Change Its Stripes WSJ • Facebook Status: Big Gains, but Worries Ahead WSJ • High Tech's Secret Weapon: The Whiteboard WSJ EFTA_R1_00759685 EFTA02123853 • Retailers Brace for Reduction in Food Stamps WSJ • Canada Approves ConocoPhillips Test Oil Drilling in Arctic North WSJ • Looking for a Way Around Keystone XL, Canadian Oil Hits the Rails NYT • Bitcoin Pursues the Mainstream NYT • C.F.T.C. Approves Tighter Commodity Trading Rules NYT • House Votes to Repeal Dodd-Frank Provision NYT • A Difficult Peace The Times • The Lone Star state is America's rising star The Times • Fed keeps USguessing over taper The Times • Industry warning over cap on workplace pension fees Independent • Consumer confidence slips back, suggesting fragility Independent • Nick Goodway: Why does 'sorry' seem to be such a hard word for all these bankers? Independent • Three-piece suite falls victim to online revolution, says John Lewis Telegraph • Putin beats Obama to top of Forbes list — a sign of how far and fast the US president's star has waned Telegraph • Mediobanca hints at Italian euro exit unless Germany shifts on EMU policy Telegraph • All Syrian chemical weapons factories destroyed, says watchdog Guardian • What poppies, Prince George and the NSA tell us about freedom Guardian • The government's plan to regulate the press is deeply flawed CityAM • Debate over Big Brother snooping is being stifled as our freedom suffers CityAM • We need more competition — not a full frontal assault on the pensions industry CityAM Key Events This Week Friday: Markit US PMI, US Manufacturing ISM Oct, Construction Spending, Global Vehicle Sales, Earnings (CVX, NEE, WPO, BLT) Saturday: China NBS non-manufacturing PMI EFTA_R1_00759686 EFTA02123854 Key Events on the Horizon Nov 7 - BOE & ECB rate decisions Nov 28 — US Thanksgiving (market closed) Dec 5 — BOE & ECB rate decisions Dec 18 — FOMC rate decision Jan 15 — Current CR runs out Feb 7 — Debt ceiling deadline (Treasury can use extraordinary measures for — 1 month past this date) 680 Washin ton Blvd 'Stamford, CT 06901 1 Ii I EFTA_R1_00759687 EFTA02123855 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and Intended only for the person or entity to which It Is addressed. 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