EFTA02129741

From: Sent: Thur 8/22/2013 9:56:09 AM Subject: Early Tour 8.22.13 Good Morning ... European Markets up 70-120 bps (Spain/Portugal/Italy +1.9%) ... ASX -0.48%, NKY - 0.44%, KOSPI -0.98%, SHCOMP -0.28%, HSI +0.36% EUR 1.3329 (-0.19%) JPY 98.68 (-1.02%) EUR/JPY 131.54 (-0.84%) AUD 0.8980 (+0.12%) NZD 0.7812 (-0.43%) US 10yr 2.91% Japan 10yr 0.75% Germany 10yr 1.93% Portugal 10yr 6.53% Italy 10yr 4.40% Spain 10yr 4.56% Futures: Dow +43, Nasdaq +19, S&P +7 DXY $81.59 (+38c) Crude $104.20 (+35c) Gold $1368.40 (-$1.70) Copper +1.71% Silver +0.66% Most of Asia followed the US move lower after the Fed Minutes showed broad support for Bernanke's tapering timeline (starting by year-end and ending in mid-2014). Whether the tapering begins in Sep or Dec is still not fully clear and remains data dependent although consensus still seems to point to Sep — it also seems likely that the initial tapering will be accompanied with enhanced forward guidance of some form (lower unemployment threshold, introduction of a lower bound for inflation, etc) to reinforce the point that thresholds are not triggers and that the Fed is committed to keeping rates low as long as necessary. Sentiment in Asia seemed to get a boost mid-morning when better flash PMI out of China at 50.1 (est 48.2) provided some support but relief was short lived with momentum fading as ASEAN concerns continue to weigh. The Philippines (-5.96%) market was hit the hardest after catching up to global moves as trading resumed following a three day closure. In Japan, Fukushima continues to dominate headlines with the latest being that TEPCO (-4.1%) is going to be requesting help from overseas. Hong Kong saw a late day rally to avoid closing in negative territory for a sixth consecutive day. India currently +2.3% despite the Rupee falling to a record low again. Now that the Fed Minutes are out of the way, European markets and S&P Futures are bid higher this moming. Periphery outperforms with Spain, Portugal, Italy all +1.90%. EMU Bank Index +2.1% European Flash PMI Manufacturing Ws also out: Eurozone 51.3 (est 50.7), Germany 52.0 (est 51.1), France 49.7 (est 50.2). Jobless claims in the US due @ 8:30am. And the Jackson Hole Symposium kicks off later today. SPA's +7 handles = 1643.60 last vs overnight low of 1631.60. ***Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, Markit US PMI @ 8:58am, House Price Index @ 9am•" ***Leading Indicators © 10am, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index @ 11am*** •**ANF, DLTR, GME, HRL, PDCO, SHLD, PLCE pre-open"" EFTA_R1_00772020 EFTA02129741 ***ADSK, GPS, ROST, ARO, ARUN, MCRS, MRVL, P earnings after close*" • L Brands (LTD) Q2 net +25% & raised FY view but sees O3 adj eps 23c-28c vs 29c ests (trading - 1%) • Synopsis eps/revs beat but profit off on taxes/expenses & Q4 rev outlook missed (trading -1%) • Hewlet-Packard eps & quarterly profit fell short & scraps 2014 sales growth plan (trading -6%) • Wells Fargo to cut 2,300 mortgage lending jobs due to a slowdown in refinancings on rising rates • Swiss Watch exports rise +2.2% nominal in July (flat growth in luxury segment, mid-range strong) • FCA announces £1.3B redress program for mis-sold insurance (13 banks & credit card issuers) • Banque Cantonale Vauddoise H1 net income inline, H2 to be inline with H1 (trading -0.70%) • Ahold O2 revs shade light, underlying better, regionally inline, cautious outlook (trading +4.6%) • Kuoni H1 revs inline, EBIT weaker YoY, mixed outlook, bookings ahead (trading +0.50%) • Nobel Biocare Q2 revs slight ahead, EBIT below, EPS light, measured outlook (trading +10.5%) • Raiffeisen O2 interest income better, fee & comm ahead, impairment losses in line (trading +2.5%) • Phoenix Group H1 cash generation target maintained, discussion with Swiss Re on going (trading - 0.07%) • Rockhopper FY net income beats, EPS ahead, Sea Lion development fully funded (trading -12.8%) • Prosafe Q2 net below, op profit misses, interim div of 15c, North Sea demand remains strong (trading -0.10%) • WH Smith pre close statement all reads inline, travel unit solid, maintains guidance (trading +3.6%) • BAM (Benelux construction) profit warning, suffers strong deterioration & cost overruns (trading - 14.2%) • Carillion H1 revs below previous year, op profit better, maintains interim div & targets (trading - 2.9%) • Premier Oil H1 net light, pretax miss, FY production forecast depends on H2 Huntington output (trading -4.4%) • Kazakyms H1 sales inline, posts net loss, no interim div, mid-term outlook for copper solid (trading +1.0%) • RTL H1 revs inline, net income ahead, EPS beats, special Eur2.5 div, confident on FY (trading +2.7%) • Nokia to unveil large-screen Lumina Windows devices in September says Reuters (trading +1.4%) EFTA_R1_00772021 EFTA02129742 • Fortescue net income inline, reits FY14 shipment target, still in talks on port/rail sale (closed +3.9%) Leading European Sectors: Banks +1.50%, Basic Res +1.37%, Retail +1.31% Lagging European Sectors: Food/Bev +0.03%, Real Estate +0.15%, Media +0.32% PRAA expands credit facility — BOCH 1M shr buyback — HAIN better RDEN cfo resigns — VVTV ebidta light — LPNT cfo to leave SB penny better — SKUL $50M credit agreement — NOAH revs beat Notable Options Activity Yesterday: TTWO ($18.19 -1.5%) opening customer bought the September 19-20 1x2 call spread for a net $0.10 6,000x12,000 times. It is a bullish trade, which would pay 10x if the stock were to close $20.00 at expiration, but would be profitable anywhere between $19.10 and $20.90. MU ($13.63 -1.2%) 37,000 Oct 14 calls traded on the stock on Wednesday, the largest print being a 4,000 lot which traded at $0.66, initiated by the seller. Over 98,000 contract of open interest on the line, the one of the largest in the stock. Secondaries (announced/priced): RGDO, XONE IPO's (filed/priced): Montage Technology Group (MONT) files $115M through Deutsche Bank and Barclays US Key Research: Citi initiates SM/XEC (neuts), Opco initiates VRTXIREGN (op's), Stifel initiates TSLA (hold) EFTA_R1_00772022 EFTA02129743 • Wells initiates BCRX (op) & upgrades PCP, SocGen downgrades CRH/TI • Longbow downgrades FUL, Raja upgrades MRO, Stephens initiates MOV (ow), RBC cuts VHS ar William Blair downgrades TGT, MS downgrades NIHD, CS upgrades CP Europe Key Research: JPM downgrade MEO1V Fl-I, SAND SS, upgrade AH NA, CS downgrade FORN SW • GS upgrade ADCB UH, EMIRATES UH, downgrade ARNB AB, DHBK QD SocGen downgrade TIT IM, CRH ID, Berenberg upgrade DRI GY, SESG FP - UBS d/d WIE AV, add CRH ID to least pref list, add WOS LN to most pref - remove LG FP HSBC downgrade PWTN SW, upgrade MDCA FP, Nomura upgrade KPN NA Nordea upgrade NKT DC, VWS DC, AKER NO, downgrade CLASB SS • SEB downgrade SHBA SS, MAQ upgrade MBTN SW Reporting Pre-Open: ANF, DLTR, GME, HRL, PDCO, SHLD, AERL, BKE, BONT, CATO, CYBX, KIRK, LANC, NM, PERY, PLCE, SMRT, SSI, TAOM, TTC, TWMC Reporting Post-Close: ADSK, GPS, ROST, ARC), ARUN, BPHX, DLLR, GIGM, HPOL, IMMU, JBSS, MCRS, MENT, MRVL, NDSN, NWY, P, SCSC, SLH, UEPS Economic Data: Jobless Claims © 8:30am, Markit US PMI 8:58am, House Price Purchase Index 9am, Bloomberg Economic Expectations & Consumer Comfort © 9:45am, Leading Indicators 10am, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index @ 11am, Treasury 2Y/5Y/7Y note size announcement © 11am EIA natural gas storage @ 10:30am, Treasury Auction of 5-yr TIPS 1pm ($16B) Fed Speakers: Fisher © 2pm (Orlando) EFTA_R1_00772023 EFTA02129744 Conferences: Citi MLP & Infrastructure (Las Vegas), Raja Banks (Chicago) Analyst/Investor Days: GWAY Non-Deal Roadshows: AMAT, BCRX, BYD, CFX, CY, FCN, FINL, GBCI, HSTM, HTM, IPAS, KERX, MMC, N, P, PRO, PSMI, RAX, SNA, TILE, TXI, VTSS Shareholder Meetings: QIWI, TXMD, AMWD, MDT, CMRO, QLGC, UNIS, GSIT Equity/Mixed Shelfs: GTN Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ cautious: Gap Inc. (GPS) WSJ • Fed Stays the Course on Bond Buying WSJ • Bo Xilai took $3.4m in bribes says prosecutor as trial opens in China FT • Indian rupee sinks to fresh record low FT • UK banks face £1.3bn bill over latest mis-selling scandal FT • Bloomberg acts on data issues FT • HP's Whitman abandons revenue growth target FT • FT/StarMine Awards: Top stockpickers took 'holistic' view FT • Tech executives facing up to hard realities of the cloud FT • Egypt court orders release of Hosni Mubarak on bail Fr • SEC scrutinises Goldman's trading failure FT • 'Sea turtles' who swim out again FT • Berlin's consistency on Greece's rescue FT EFTA_R1_00772024 EFTA02129745 • Hit puberty? Time to get Linkedln FT • Syria opposition claims hundreds die in chemical attack FT • Fed minutes show broad support for tapering this year FT • Interns keep working at BofA after colleague's death FT • Wells cuts 2,300 mortgage jobs FT • Al Jazeera sues AT&T for dropping network FT • Cheaper rivals eat into Apple's China tablet share FT • Do not blindly trust official guardians of our security FT • The dithering state is at the heart of India's problems FT • The markets should not have expected much from Carney FT • Why innovation needs the help of an active state FT • Stocks mixed as bond yields hit fresh highs FT • Lowe's / Home Depot Lex • Vestas: wind of change Lex • Heineken v Carlsberg Lex • Woodside Petroleum: dividend fashion Lex • U.S. Suspects Syria Used Gas WSJ • Google Could Open a Hole in Pay TV's Defense WSJ • Bad Trades' Ripple Effect WSJ • SEC Is Set to Propose New Rule on CEO Pay WSJ • Whole Foods' Battle for the Organic Shopper WSJ • Ireland's Household Debt Crisis Still Far From Over WSJ • Germany Criticizes U.K. Over Handling of the Guardian WSJ • China Manufacturing Expands WSJ • Reception in Switzerland for Refugees Starts to Cool WSJ • New Attempt at French-German Amity Stumbles in Venice WSJ • Mr. Obama's Middle Class WSJ EFTA_R1_00772025 EFTA02129746 • Why I'm torn between freedom and security The Times • Fed united on need to taper QE but split on timing Independent • Jim Armitage: A new Dawn for Yahoo, so now it must wake up Independent • France warns Syria of forceful response over chemical weapon claims Guardian • The City must not over-react to the shock death of an intern City AM • M&S's new ad campaign will struggle to reverse slumping fashion sales City AM • Why we shouldn't be surprised by the rapidly rising cost of High Speed 2 City AM Key Events This Week Friday: New Home Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Earnings (ANN, FL, HIBB) Key Events on the Horizon August 30 - MSCI reweight on the close September 5 - BOE/ECB rate decisions September 5-6 — G20 Leaders Summit (St. Petersburg, Russia) September 7 — Australian election September 10 — AAPL iPhone event September 18 — FOMC rate decision September 22 — German elections EFTA_R1_00772026 EFTA02129747 September 30 — Fiscal Year End for US Federal Government October 10-11 - G20 Fin Min/CB meeting (DC) Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd I Stamford, CT 06901 1 w (203) 302-7300 I : ike(Ttourmalinellc.com This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and Intended only for the person or entity to which It is addressed. 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