EFTA02141874

From: Sent Fri 4/19/2013 9:39:26 AM Subject Early Tour 4.19.13 Good Morning ... European Markets up 25-100 bps (Italy +1.4%, Russia -0.38%) ... ASX +0.15%, NKY +0.73%, KOSPI +0.35%, TWSE +1.79%, SHCOMP +2.14%, HSI +2.32% EUR 1.3087 (+0.28%) JPY 99.14 (-0.97%) NZD +0.73% GBP +0.49% AUD +0.41% Spain 10yr 4.62% Italy 10yr 4.23% US 10yr +1.7015% Futures: Dow +81, Nasdaq +16, S&P +9 DXY 82.44 (-0.14%) Crude 588.31 (+0.66%) Gold $1415.80 (+1.67%) Copper -1.58% Silver +1.36% More chaos in Boston overnight and reports suggest that one of the marathon bombing suspects has been apprehended and taken into custody in Watertown while the other remains on the loose. The situation remains fluid and there has been some conflicting reports as the events unfold, b ary: the FBI released photos of the 2 suspects last evening (link), then in the early hours of the here was a wild series of events that included: a police officer shot to death by 2 males on the s, a subsequent car-jacking near Kendall Square, followed by a manhunt in Watertown that inv gunshots & explosive devices with suspect # 1 wounded in the chase and taken into cust eventually died. The manhunt for suspect #2 (white baseball cap in the marathon photos) is ongoing. Police are telling residents of Watertown to remain indoors with the doors locked as the search continues. Turning to the markets, China led the AsiaPac region higher overnight on the back of a Shanghai Securities News report that the CSRC has had contact with MSCI about possible inclusion of A- shares in the Emerging Market Index. Reports that China is likely to widen the Yuan trading band in the next 72 hours also helped sentiment. Mainland banks were firmer after reports the CBRC is "urging" them to increase lending efforts to non-traditional industries and to help support domestic consumption. The Nikkei reversed earlier losses as Tokyo Electron (+7.1%) led chip- equipment makers higher and exporters rebounded on a weaker JPY as BOJ Governor Haruhiko said global policy makers would not censure Japan for the currency's slide in the G-20 meeting (JPY 99.14 last -0.97%). European markets mostly higher as well into options expiration and the weekend. Basic Resources, Banks, Luxury, Autos/Parts are leading the way higher today. SXPP +1.2% today but still -5.7% on the week. There will be a third vote in Italy today for President and if a 2/3 majority is not reached the next vote will require an absolute majority. It is looking increasingly likely that fresh elections are on the horizon. Earnings continue to be in focus (full recap below). No economic data due out today. SPA's +9 handles =1543.70 last. EFTA_R1_00796725 EFTA02141874 ***BHICOL,GE,GPC,HON,IPG,KMB,LH,MCD,SLB,STI,STT,UA Ws pre-open— • Google Q1 profit beats, improved ad revs, paid clicks +20% y/y , prices -4% due to mobile (trading +1.5%) • Microsoft earnings beat est on higher Window 8 sales/cost control, CFO departure (trading +2.7%) • IBM eps misses ests, revs drop y/y from delay of several software & mainframe deals (trading - 4.4%) • Blackstone abandons its $25B offer for Dell after weeks of due diligence paid for by the company (FT) • Chipotle revs/eps beat from new store sales & better comps, lower margins from higher food costs (trading +3.4%) • Intuitive Surgical revs/eps beat on increased use of Da Vinci surgical system, guides to high end (trading -0.9%) • E-Trade profit drops y/y but earnings inline, reported $3.1B in new brokerage assets (trading unch) • Capital One's net income falls yoy but eps beat estimates on improved lending margins (trading +0.7%) • AMD reports smaller loss than expected and guides above est with non-PC related revs (trading - 4.3%) • Air Methods guides down citing severe weather & deterioration of privately insured patient base (trading -18.3%) • SAP Q1 op profit, software rev, total rev below, driven by the Asia-Pacific region, reiterates outlook (trading -2.3%) • L'Oreal O1 sales ahead, LfL's in line, solid start to year, confident outlook, upbeat on Chinese luxury (trading +3.8%) • Schindler Q1 sales slight below, net profit better, EBIT in line, solid order intake, reiterate guidance (trading +2.1%) • Commerzbank expects after tax Q1 loss due to one-off staff reduction costs, O1 "started solidly' (trading -1.1%) • TeliaSonera O1 sales light, EBITDA margin below, FY to be flat, sees "demanding competition" (trading -1.9%) • Elisa O1 sales, EBITDA and EPS miss, net income below, see flat to "slightly below" full year (trading -5.1%) • William Hill strong Q1 rev driven by solid online and strong mobile gaming, CEO positive on outlook (trading +4.5%) • Casino O1 revs in line helped by solid international performance, weak domestic driven by price EFTA_R1_00796726 EFTA02141875 cutting (trading -0.80%) • Anglo American O1 production broadly in line in traditionally light season, nickel weak, iron ore okay (trading +1.4%) • Statoil makes significant find in Gullfaks, preliminary calcs show 40mn to 150mn recoverable BOE (trading +1.9%) Leading European Sectors: Luxury +1.72%, Banks +1.68%, Basic Resources +1.30% Lagging European Sectors: Tech -0.97%, Media -0.07%, Healthcare +0.08% WERN #'s light — AIRM guides below est — THM names new pres RH earnings better — TWTC increases revolver — AES chairman retires HCBK holders approve merger — COBZ eps penny better — KNL cfo to retire Secondaries (announced/priced): PRGN, IPO's: SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS) prices 26M shares at $27M, Blackhawk Network (HAWK) prices 10M shares at $23.00 US Key Research: • BMO upgrades NOK, Compass Point downgrades PAY, Wells initiates CHDN/COF (op's) • GS upgrades VRTX, Jefferies upgrades EE (buy) & initiates WCG (hold) and GASS (buy) RBC initiates MITL (sp), Jeff initiates WCG (hold) and GASS (buy)b. Riley intiates ADBE (buy) • Citi initiates AMP (buy), KBW upgrades AF/ETFC/TOL, DB upgrades AN, CS cuts WWW • Baird downgrades COH, JPM downgrades FCS, Raja downgrades TXNm DB upgrades UBS (buy) Europe Key Research: • UBS add LG FP to most pref - HOLN VX removed, upgrade TCELL TI, TRMK RM, PHOR RM, SZG EFTA_R1_00796727 EFTA02141876 GY, downgrade TAVHL TI, SHI LN Barc initiate KYG ID (ow), Citi upgrade TNET BB, CS downgrade SW FP, BofAML remove SOLE BB from Europe 1 list DB upgrade UBSN VX, BNP FP, GS add MC FP, BRBY LN, REE SM, ITX SM to cony buy list — SFER IM removed HSBC upgrade SBS GY, JPM downgrade MLP GY, RAL FP, CO FP, RBC upgrade FRES LN MS upgrade FUM1V FH, Fl IM, downgrade SEV FP, VOLVB SS, resume MAN GY (ew), Oriel u/g RCP LN, d/9 REX LN SocGen upgrade GLEN LN, POM FP, lnvestec upgrade MONY LN, SEB upgrade IFSB SS, ORNBV FH Exane downgrade ES IM, ELE FP, Chev restart SKFB SS (up), SAND SS (up), ALFA SS (up), ATCOA SS (op) Bern upgrade TEF SM, Beren initiate LO24 GY (b), Equinet upgrade RHM CY, KBC upgrade AKZA NA Nordea downgrade NOK1V FH, AFB SS, initiate ALGETA NO (b), upgrade NZYMB DC, VAC1V FR Reporting Pre-Open: BHI, COL, FFIN, GE, GPC, HON, IPG, KMB, LH, MCD, SLB, STI, STT, ACU, BGG, FNFG, KSU, MAN, MOSY, TAYC, TCB, TNP, UA Reporting Post-Close: FUBC, PRK Economic Data: No major releases Fed Speakers: Stein @ 12pm (Charlotte, NC) Conferences: No major events Analyst/Investor Days: TOD IM Non-Deal Roadshows: ACRX, CORE, EVC, VNO EFTA_R1_00796728 EFTA02141877 Shareholder Meetings: TNXP, BYKF Equity/Mixed Shelfs: ITC Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Hercules Offshore (HERO) Barron's WSJ cautious: Diageo (DGE LN) WSJ Nokia Barron's • Suspect Dead, Mother at Large After Police Chase Boston Globe • UK and IMF face dust-up on austerity FT • Barclays retires last two from old regime FT • Germany should face the German question FT • Consolidation trumps push for growth FT • Austerians stand their ground over deficit FT • Renminbi rides out weaker China growth FT • Tech earnings: feeling flat Lex • Morgan Stanley: happily married Lex • Nokia: a new stream of bad news Lex • Japan is fighting back at stagnation FT • Thatcher was right — there is no 'society' FT • Portugal moves to keep bailout on track WSJ • Dire Dutch economy raises austerity stakes WSJ • Nokia's turnaround under time pressure WSJ EFTA_R1_00796729 EFTA02141878 • No winner yet in Italian elections WSJ • IPO Investors Conquer Fear of Debt WSJ • Beijing's paranoid worldview WSJ • Gold plunge is cause for optimism WSJ • IBM Finds Itself Singing the Growth Blues WSJ Heard on the Street • Optimism of Vodafone deal as buyer sees tax light The Times • Carney warns Britain is a "crisis economy Telegraph • Financial transaction tax contravenes G20 agreements Telegraph • The IMF is flunking the financial crisis Telegraph • Vedanta £1bn mine plan knocked back by India Independent • Why big is no longer beautiful for Tesco Independent • Debenhams plans 70 new stores as profits fall Guardian • George Osborne told by IMF chief: rethink your austerity plan Guardian Key Events Next Week Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, New Homes Sales, Earnings (CAT, HAL, TXN, NFLX) Tuesday: Richmond Fed, Earnings (AAPL, COH, DD, FRX, IR, LMT, XRX, WAT, JNPR, O1, RHI, YUM) Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Earnings (BA, ATI, DPS, GD, LO, MSI, S, WM, AFL, CLF, FFIV, QCOM, SYMM, XLNX) Thursday: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, Earnings (ABC, BIIB, BMY, CL, HOG, HSY, MMM, LUV, RTN, SWY, TWC, UPS, BIDU, CB, SBUX, VRSN) Friday: GDP, U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence, Earnings (ABBV, CVX, VFC, TYC, WY) EFTA_R1_00796730 EFTA02141879 Key Events on the Horizon May 1 — FOMC rate announcement May 2 — ECB rate announcement May 8 — Ira Sohn Conference NYC May 9 — BOE rate announcement May26/27 — Mayoral elections in 720 cities across Italy July 1 — Mark Carney takes over as BOE Governor September — German elections EFTA_R1_00796731 EFTA02141880 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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