EFTA02143854

From: MI Sent 13 9:58:25 AM Subject Early Tour 3.15.13 Good Morning ... Europe off 0-60 bps (Italy +0.26%) ... ASX +1.75%, NKY +1.45%, KOSPI - 0.78%, TWSE -0.31%, SHCOMP +0.36%, HSI -0.38% EUR 1.3045 (+0.32%) JPY 96.12 (-0.01%) EUR/JPY 125.39 (+0.32%) AUD 1.0343 (+0.44%) GBP 1.5138 (+0.37%) Spain 10yr 4.87% Italy 10yr 4.64% US 10yr 2.04% Copper +0.08% Silver +0.22% Futures: Dow -2, Nasdaq -1, S&P -1 DXY $82.34 (-30c) Crude $93.25 (+22c) Gold $1591.80 (+$1.10) Asian markets were mostly higher overnight helped by a firm lead from the US. The FTSE rebalance was the focus of the day with Australia and Japan the obvious beneficiaries. Japan closed at the highs after Kuroda and Iwata's appointments were approved by the Upper House. The Nikkei is reporting that Abe may announce plans to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the government would expect this to boost the GDP by #3.2 trillion. Sony (+11%) was upgraded by Daiwa, which helped boost the tech space. China managed to end higher, although off the best levels, with earlier strength being attributed to improving sentiment post the election of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang - futures expiry also helped. Mainland property names continue to struggle though, after the Housing Minister said that a capital gains tax will be implemented. Korea underperformed and the Kospi gapped lower in the closing auction with heavy foreign selling, particularly in Samsung (-2.6%), following the unveiling of the S4. Next week we get an Indian rate decision on the 19th (most economists forecast 25 bps cut) and HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI on the 21st. European markets generally lower in choppy trading thus far with volumes elevated due to quad witch options expiry as well as multiple rebalances on the close today both in the US & Europe including several S&P, FTSE, NYSE-Euroncxt, Deutsche Boerse, and Stoxx indices. The EU Summit continues today and Italy's new Parliament meets for the first time to elect lower/upper house speakers and begin the challenge of trying to form a government. The US Fed released its CCAR stress test review after the close yesterday (link and approved the capital plans of 14 banks, granted two others conditional approval (GS & JPM), and rejected the other two (BBT & Ally Financial). GS & JPM will be required to submit new capital plans by the end of Q3 to address weaknesses in their capital planning processes (summary in the ID. After-hours trading: BAC+3.2%, DFS +2.9%, MS +1.9%, WFC +0.60%, C +0.30%, BBT -2.9%, GS -1.7%, CMA -2.2%, JPM -1.5%. SPA's -1 handle = 1554.70 last. EFTA_R1_00800167 EFTA02143854 ***CPl & Empire Manufacturing i 8:30am, CC master trust Ws"" ***Industrial Production @ 9:15am, Michigan Confidence c 9:55am*** •**CCL reports pre-open, China Feb properly prices out Sunday night*** • Aeropostale Q4 comps missed (posted loss) & O1 loss/shr forecast below ests (trading -5%) • Molycorp loss wider than est (sees 1H weaker than 2H) on missed production targets • JPM "misled investors" before "lying to investigators" over its $6B loss alleges Senate panel (FT) • Lindt & Spruengli FY EBIT & net light, margins ok, div ahead, confirm guidance (trading -0.80%) • Rentokil FY revs inline, EBIT ahead, solid across all divisions, ok div, cautious outlook (trading +10.1%) • Hennes (H&M) Q1 sales light hindered by FX, Feb sales effected by 2012 leap year comp (trading 0.73%) • JD Wetherspoon H1 op margin below, revs ahead, tax and input costs to rise, guidance ok (trading +1.6%) • Bwin.Party FY trading update, tweaking guidance lower, may cut marketing to raise margins (trading -5.5%) • Dufry FY revs, EBITDA inline, net income slight light, positive outlook, weak into #'s (trading +0.90%) • Unicredit may sell Kazakh unit for $500 million, numbers due later today (trading +2.6%) • Vivendi halts sale of Brazilian phone unit GVT due to unsatisfactory bids (trading -2.9%) • Novartis's lung cancer drug LDK378 may come to market by early 2014 (trading +0.40%) • Pandora & Trollbeads a/s agree one-off DKK190mn payment to replace royalties (trading +0.40%) • Japan PM Shinzo Abe's nominations for the top 3 positions at the BOJ approved by parliament Leading European Sectors: Basic Res +0.53%, Fin Services +0.23%, TravlLes +0.20% Lagging European Sectors: Autos/Parts -0.73%, Food/Bev -0.56%, Utilities -0.53% ULTA lowers forecast — PRXL $50M accelerated buyback — CKEC ebidta better ZUMZ O1 outlook below — STEC Ws light — GLDD restates financials, coo leaves EFTA_R1_00800168 EFTA02143855 Secondaries (announced/priced): TRLA, KW, DK, CRDC, ING FP, VOW3 GY IPO's: N/A US Key Research: • Bern downgrades JBHT, GS initiates PLG (neut), Jeff cuts RIG & upgrades INFY (buy) • KBW downgrades PGR/EWBC/BSRR/BBCN, Oppenheimer downgrades ULTA • Roth initiates RGDX/CPST (buy), Citi initiates SXCP (neut), Wells upgrades NDAQ JPM downgrades RDS.A, Longbow downgrades KMT, CS upgrades SEE Europe Key Research: Nomura downgrade BET LN, upgrade HOME LN, UBS cut IMT LN from most pref, CPG LN added JPM upgrade NOVN VX, downgrade RDSA LN, CS upgrade ASA SJ, SBK SJ, downgrade FSR SJ • MS upgrade IAG LN, downgrade CA FP, -ye LOGN SW, GTO FP, GS upgrade AMS SJ • Barc downgrade RBS LN, eve JAZ SM, BofAML downgrade GFS LN, HNR1 GY, MUV2 GY DB upgrade AGK LN, ABG downgrade ATCOA SS, Natixis upgrade STS IM, downgrade FXPO LN • Cit downgrade NMTP RU, bullish on UK Homebuilders: (upgrade RDW LN), ING downgrade KER PW • Carnegie downgrade MMO1V FH, CBK upgrade NDX1 GY, SDF GY, initiate LEG GY (add) • Nordea downgrade STCAS FH, RBC upgrade IPF LN, downgrade PFG LN, initiate TPK LN (op) • Numis upgrade BRK LN, downgrade SYNT LN, GFS LN, Equita upgrade A2A IM, ENI IM BERE upgrade LEG GY, ABBN VX, JEFF upgrade ARM LN, HSV LN, Akros downgrade LR IM Reporting Pre-Open: BWS, CDTI, CRME, CTRN, DXLG, FSS, HIBB, JST, JVA, KUTV, LIWA, PGNX, SNMX, STON, URRE, ZGNX, USEG EFTA_R1_00800169 EFTA02143856 Reporting Post-Close: CXPO, KCAP Economic Data: CPI / Empire Manufacturing © 8:30am, TIC Flows © 9am, Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization © 9:15am, U. of Michigan Confidence @ 9:55am Fed Speakers: Fisher speaks on "Too Big To Fair @ 9:30am (D.C.) Conferences: No major conferences. Analyst/Investor Days: N/A Non-Deal Roadshows: AAT, AVNW, BCE, CY, DTLK, ENH, GLW, INSV, LTM, MDT, RU, RWT, SCBFF, SWFT, TUP Shareholder Meetings: BPAX, KEYN Equity/Mixed Shells: NVAC ($150M). JNS, HA ($525M) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) Barron's WSJ cautious: Big Banks WSJ • Greece and lenders fall out over firings FT • UK Budget: No Plan B for the economy FT • EU leaders meet amid austerity debate FT • US banks: stress-test results Lex EFTA_R1_00800170 EFTA02143857 • US earnings: what they tell us Lex • Generali: generally better Lex • ETF wars: beefed-up alliance Lex • Volkswagen: spluttering along Lex • China Mobile: cash rich Lex • ECB to hire hundreds of advisers WSJ • Web Video: Bigger and less profitable WSJ • Samsung bets software can lift the Galaxy S4 WSJ • A Basel Banking Do-Over WSJ • Can the Greek Centre hold? WSJ • Beware the Bond Liquidity Trap WSJ Heard on the Street • Greek aid withheld after delays on civil service cuts The Times • Lufthansa set for bumpy ride as fuel soars The Times • QE 'has self-defeating effects' The Times • Sterling's fall is complete and recovery is around the corner The Times • China buys gas foothold in Mozambique The Times • ECB needs 800 more staff to supervise eurozone banks Telegraph • Fed tells banks to fix capital problems Telegraph • Qatar's UK ambitions could mean billions more in investment Telegraph • Germany's prudence is Europe's poison Telegraph • Budget 2013: Telegraph guide on what to expect Telegraph • The day of reckoning for the private equity barons is still to come Independent • Has Ocado found a mate in Morrisons? Independent Key Events Next Week Monday: NAHB Housing Market Index, Howard Weil Energy Conference (New Orleans), Earnings EFTA_R1_00800171 EFTA02143858 (IVAN, KIOR, TA, FF, WAVX, GAZA) Tuesday: BOJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa steps down, Italy President starts official consultations with the parties to form a government, Housing Starts & Building Permits, German ZEW, MPC meeting minutes published & budget announcement, Bofa Industrials & EU Autos Conference (London), Earnings (ADBE, CTAS, WAC, WSM) Wednesday: FOMC Rate Decision, EU meeting on capital rules for banks, BOE minutes, Eurozone consumer confidence, China HSBC Flash PMI, BB&T Commercial & Industrial Conference (London), Earnings (FDX, LEN, JBL, ORCL) Thursday: Philadelphia Fed, FHFA House Pride Index, Existing Home Sales, Eurozone Flash PMI, JPM Insurance Conference (NYC), Earnings (ROST, MU, NKE, WTSL) Friday: EU leaders meet in Finland, Earnings (DRI, TIF) Key Events on the Horizon April 8 - Obama to publish his budget April 15 — #NoBudgetNoPay deadline for Congress May 19 — US debt ceiling limit May26/27 — Mayoral elections in 720 cities across Italy July 1 — Mark Carney takes over as BOE Governor September — German elections EFTA_R1_00800172 EFTA02143859 ' ton Blvd Stamford, CT 06901 I lx<1 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it Is addressed. 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