EFTA02149039

From: MN Sent: Wed 1/30/2013 11:00:43 AM Subject: Early Tour 1.30.13 Good Morning ... European Markets off 0-20 bps (Italy -1.93%)... ASX +0.16%, NKY +2.28%, KOSPI +0.43%, TWSE +0.40%, SHCOMP +1.00%, HSI +0.71% EUR 1.3544 (+0.39%) JPY 91.30 (-0.63%) EUR/JPY 123.65 (+1.00%) AUD 1.0436 (-0.37%) NZD 0.8337 (-0.68%) Italy 10yr 4.22% Spain 10yr 5.18% US 10yr 2.02% Copper +1.12% Silver +0.85% Nat Gas +1.04% Futures: Dow +4, Nasdaq +2, S&P +0 DXY $79.48 (-14c) Crude $97.86 (+27c) Gold $1667.40 (+$4.70) Asian markets were all higher overnight. Australia's ASX200 posted its I 0nl gain in a row, which is its longest winning streak since Oct 2003. NKY225 closed above I I k for the first time since Apr 2012 — comments over lunch from potential BoJ governor Iwata that the BoJ "should double assets to achieve 2% inflation" set up the afternoon move. JPY failed to break through 91 during the session but has since weakened > 91.30 vs USD. SHCOMP also extended recent gains, led by brokers, banks and property stocks (closing at an 8-month high on good volume). European markets refusing to pull back once again. Sources close to ECB say Spanish banks repaid E44B in LTRO1 (out of E137B) according to El Pais newspaper. EUR strengthens to 1.35 level for the first time since Dec 2011. Reminder Spanish short-selling ban set to expire tomorrow on the close. Big Macro day in the US with ADP Employment & GDP this morning followed by FOMC later this afternoon. RIM Blackberry 10 launch today as well. SPA's fiat = 1505.60 last. ***Mortgage Apps 7am, ADP Employment i 8:15amm ***GDP / Personal Consumption @ 8:30, FOMC Rate Decision @ 2:15pm*" ***BA, HCBK, HES, LLL, MPC, MWV, NOC earnings pre-open— ***AVG, CTXS, EA, FB, JDSU, LVS, MUR, O1, OCOM #'s post close*** EFTA_R1_00808717 EFTA02149039 • Amazon eps missed & rev outlook light but op margin improved & FCF growth (trading +8%) • Chesapeake CEO Aubrey McClendon to retire on April 1 (philosophical differences with board) • Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) to acquire Copano (CPNO) for - $5B including debt • Thermo Fisher to explore bid for Life Technologies (KKR, Blackstone, Bain, TPG also interested) • Ace Q4 operating eps beat ests but 2013 operating eps view light ($6.60-$7 vs $7.89 ests) • Broadcom revenues & eps top estimates but Q1 rev view light (boosts div by 10%) (trading -1.1%) • Websense guides FY adjusted eps much lower (78c-93c vs $1.54 ests) (trading -5%) • Ryland Group O4 closings up 59% & new orders +64% beating estimates (trading +5%) • Michael Dell seeking majority control in buyout combining 15.7% stake with —$16 personal funds • MetLife in talks to buy Chile's largest private pension fund manager AFP Provida S.A from BBVA • John Kerry easily wins Senate confirmation to become next Secretary of State in 94-3 vote • Saipem profit warns, cut 2012 net income 10%, reduce EBIT by 50%, net income by 60% (trading - 35.5%) • Phoenix announce debt prepayment & re-terming of Impala debt, placing 50M shs @ £5 (trading +11.35%) • Luxottica solid Q4, sales inline, +ve FX tailwind, cautious on the near term, sees robust US (trading+4% ) • Roche Holding FY inline, core EBIT better, sees dividend increase in 2013, cautious outlook (trading -1.6%) • Unicredit sells 9.1% stake in Pekao (23.2M shs), remains majority holder with 50% + 1 (trading - 0.13%) • Scania mixed O4, orders ahead, Brazil beats, US/Europe steady, cuts div & production by 15% (trading -2%) • Nordea Bank good Q4 driven by comm, loan loses, Nil In line, div better, costs cutting ahead (trading +2.3%) • Swedbank Q4 beats across the board driven by Nil treasury gains, boosting dividend (trading 7.7%) • H&M Q4 light, January sales weak, gross margin & dividend inline, EPS slight ahead (trading - 2.8%) • United Utilities IMS in line, leakage targets met, net debt in line, maintaining guidance (trading +0.8%) • Antofagasta solid O4 production #'s, 2013 guidance weak with higher costs (trading-5% ) EFTA_R1_00808718 EFTA02149040 • ThyssenKrupp, Arcleor and Nippon to jointly bid $1.5bn for Thyssen's US plant (trading +1.2%) • Spanish prelim GDP worse than expected in Q4 (-0.7% q/q vs est -0.6%) (-1.8% y/y vs est -1.7%) • Nintendo raises FY net forecasts on new JPY assumptions but cuts FY sales forecasts for Wii U • Hengdeli Holdings trades lower on cautious report in local language Next Magazine (closed -7.4%) Leading European Sectors: Insurance +0.14%, Media +0.11%, Telco +0.06% Lagging European Sectors: Oil & Gas -1.41%, Chemicals -0.73%, Basic Res -0.60% SPB declares 25c dividend — PLT earnings better — QNST sees revs lower DLB beat ests - SLGN penny light — HLIT $75M buyback boost AZPN boosts forecast — GM powertrain media event — PRXL boosts outlook RHI mixed earnings — CODE eps missed ests — UIS revs beat Secondaries (announced/priced): KERX, PNY, NLNK IPO's: N/A US Key Research: Bernstein downgrades YUM, Citi downgrades AMG, DB downgrades HA, CLSA cuts AMZN/F • GS downgrades HOG & initiates BWLD (neut), Janney initiates ALGN (buy) & downgrades GGG • Mizuho initiates ACRX (buy), Opco downgrades OPEN, Telsey initiates DSW w/ $78 pt Raja downgrades BBCN/JBLU, Stifel upgrades CHK (buy), Evercore initates LBTYA (ow) Wells downgrades PLD, JPM downgrades USB, GS upgrades WDR, MS downgrades PKX Europe Key Research: Cit European Chemicals: (JMAT LN replace SYNNV most pref. NYZMB DC, LXS replace AKZA NA, GIVN VX least pref) EFTA_R1_00808719 EFTA02149041 r Citi upgrade DUFN SW, EDP LN, MS resume BP/ LN (uw), upgrade IMG LN, downgrade SPM IM r DB downgrade SPM IM, GS Euro Advertising: (remain cony buy HAV FP, +ve WPP LN and PUB FP) BofAML downgrade SPM IM, ANTO LN, HSBC downgrade SOW GY, HOLN VX, MT NA, WIE AV, SGO FP, CRH ID Nomura downgrade SAZ GY, upgrade SSBA SS, JPM downgrade AMAG AV, initiate LMP LN (ow) r Hand upgrade NES1V FH, Natixis downgrade SPM IM, MAQ downgrade SPM IM, Medio downgrade SPM IM e SocGen downgrade SCHP FP, GLO FP, Kepler downgrade JEN GR, CFG SM, SPM IM e JEFF upgrade WPP LN, Exane downgrade UBSN VX, SAND SS, TALV LN, Danske upgrade AURIB DC KBC downgrade GLPG BB, Intermonti downgrade SPM IM, Akros downgrade SPM IM r Nordea downgrade FOE NO, KLED SS, ABN downgrade CSM NA, upgrade TEC FP Reporting Pre-Open: ABBV, ADT, AVY, BA, HCBK, HES, LLL, MPC, MWV, NOC, PSX, ROK, SO, WEC, ABFS. BAH, BOH, CEVA, CFR, CVLT, DHX, DSPG, EVR, FCF, FHCO, HAE, HNT, MAN, MGAM, MKTX, MTOR, NYCB, OW, PJC, SAIA, SEIC, SLAB, SMED, SPILL, STBZ, TCB, UTL, VLY, WRLD Reporting Post-Close: AMP, AVB, COP, CTXS, EA, FB, JDSU, MUR, O1, QCOM, AFOP, ALGN, ALGT, AMCC, AOSL, ATW, AVNW, BRKL, BVSN, CACI, CBT, CCK, CDNS, CLB, CMO, CNQR, COHU, CSII, CVTI, DOX, DRE, EDMC, ELY, EVER, EXPO, EXTR, FICO, FIO, FTNT, GFF, HFWA, HWKN, ISIL, ISSI, JBSS, KEX, KNX, KRC, LVS, MEOH, MKSI, MRLN, MX, NOW, NXPI, QTM, RCKB, REG, SGI, SHOR, SLG, SRDX, STM, SWKS, TFSL, TGI, TSCO, TTEK, USLM, VHS, VRTU, WASH Economic Data: MBA Mortgage Applications @ 7am, ADP Employment Change @ 8:15am, GDP / Personal Consumption @ 8:30, FOMC Rate Decision @ 2:15pm DOE crude oil inventories @ 10:30am, Treasury Auction of 7-yr Notes @ 1pm ($29B) Conferences: No major conferences. Analyst/Investor Days: VELT, KMI EFTA_R1_00808720 EFTA02149042 Non-Deal Roadshows: AHT, CSGP, DLA, EAT, EFC, FDS, GFI, IMAX, MLHR, MTDR, THLD, VAR, VPHM Shareholder Meetings: EAGL, MWA, SBH, GIB, HTHC, MGAM, SCHN, YDNT, V, LVB, XCO Equity/Mixed Shelfs: N/A Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ cautious: Amazon (AMZN) WSJ • Brussels softens line on bank ringfences FT • Wider euro 'Tobin tax' will net E35bn FT • India sees end to Vodafone tax dispute FT • China anger at EU telecoms demands FT • RBS to wind down M&A as sale called off FT • YouTube to switch on paid-for video FT • Central bank hot air pumps up bond bubble FT • A perilous journey to full recovery FT • The great return FT • 3i in the crosshairs Lex • Anglo joins the miner writedowns FT • China's banks are too big to manage FT • Europe's car woes damp year's outlook WSJ • ECB's fall in Assets risks rise in Euro WSJ • Bank of Italy goes on the defensive WSJ • Samsung extends its reach to Health Care WSJ EFTA_R1_00808721 EFTA02149043 • The State Tax Reformers WSJ Opinion • Analysts See the Good in Amazon's Poor Results NYT • Tesco stops the rot at the top of the grocers' big table The Times • EU exit threatens 'standard of living' Telegraph • Spain's crisis strategy under fire as economy buckles again Telegraph • Spanish austerity rethink looms Guardian • Turnaround specialist buying shares in 3i Guardian • QE a 'monumental mistake', pensions experts say Guardian • Japan's coming debt crisis as an ageing population eyes retirement Independent • 3i mans the barricades once more Independent Key Events This Week Thursday: Spain short-selling ban set to expire after the close, Workers at Public Power Corporation in Greece to strike, Chicago PMI, Personal Income & Spending, Challenger Job Cuts, China PMI (10pm), Earnings (AET, AN, BMS, CL, HSY, MA, OXY, UPS, WHR) Friday: January Employment Report, Construction Spending, Michigan Confidence, Auto Sales, ISM Manufacturing, Eurozone PMI, Earnings (BEAM, CVX, LM, IR, LYB, TSN, XOM) Key Events on the Horizon February 10 — Chinese New Year February 19/20/21/22 — CAGNY Conference in Boca Raton (Consumer Staples) February 24/25 — Italian elections February 27 — First repayment for LTRO 2 EFTA_R1_00808722 EFTA02149044 March 1 — Automatic spending cuts of sequestration set to begin ($1.2 trillion, 50% from defense) March 7 — Fed to release stress test results for big banks March 14 — Fed to release decisions on proposed capital plans of banks April 15 — #NoBudgetNoPay deadline for Congress May 19 — US debt ceiling limit September — German elections EFTA_R1_00808723 EFTA02149045 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and Intended only for the person or entity to which It Is addressed. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail and any attachment(s) is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify the sender at 203-302-7300 or by replying to this e-mail and delete the e-mail and any attachment(s) from your system. Nothing herein shall be construed as a financial promotion to any person or persons, or a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment or to engage in any trading strategy. Information presented is from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This information should not be taken as an offer nor as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure, timely or error free. Tourmaline Partners, RC may review and store both incoming and outgoing messages. Use by other than the intended recipients is prohibited. EFTA_R1_00808724 EFTA02149046