EFTA02154412

From: Sent: Fri 11/16/2012 11:02:38 AM Subject: Early Tour 11.16.12 Good Morning ... Europe off 35-100bps (Italy -1.5%) ASX -0.29%, NKY +2.20%, KOSPI - 0.53%, SHCOMP -0.77%, HSI +0.24% EUR 1.2732 (-0.38%) JPY 81.13 (+0.05%) ILS 3.958 (+0.45%) CHF 0.9458 (-0.40%) Spain 10yr 5.87% Italy 10yr 4.88% US 10yr 1.588% Futures: Dow -47, Nasdaq -7. S&P -5 DXY $81.22 (+14c) Crude 585.24 (-21c) Gold 51709.90 (- $3.90) Copper -0.46% Silver -1.14% It was all about Japan again today as the market continues to rally (+2.2% today on heavy volume) on the prospects of the LDP returning to power. An LDP win is expected to bring a very pro-business environment with large-scale easing (to reach inflation target of 2-3%), increased spending on infrastructure and the immediate re-start of nuclear reactors. The yen is now trading at a 6month low vs USD and although it is unlikely the BOJ does anything major at next week's meeting all eyes are on the December meeting as it now falls AFTER the elections. Outside of Japan, markets were generally lower with the SHCOMP sliding another 80bps as the new leadership fails to inspire. SHCOMP now -3.8% since 18th Party Congress began. While Singapore says they see GDP growth at the lower end of forecasts, expecting 2012 growth at 1.5% vs l.5%-2.5% range given in Aug and 2013 between 1%-3% as global uncertainties persist. Europe tried to tread water early but now moving lower on average volumes for options expiry. HPC names active following Reckltt trumping Bayer's bid for US vitamin player Schiff by 24% ($42/share cash = $1.4 billion) & Henkel delivers a mixed quarter and disappoints with no margin or organic sales growth guidance. Obama will meet with key Congressional leaders today as formal negotiations on the fiscal cliff begin. US futures were green briefly this morning but have since rolled over as technicals remain broken. SPA's -5 handles = 1346 last. "'Options Expiration today, Industrial Production © 9:15arn"*" "'Obama travelling to Asia tomorrow (November 17-21).- EFTA_R1_00820440 EFTA02154412 • Dell eps & revs both below & sales forecast light (PC shipments -8.3% y/y) (trading -1.5%) • Nike 2-for-1 stock split (A & B shares) plus 17% boost to quarterly dividend (trading +1%) • Hertz $2.6B Dollar Thrifty purchase cleared by FTC (HTZ to divest 15 more airport outlets) • Intuit adjusted loss narrower than expected (revenues grew 12%) reiterates FY guidance • Penn Gaming to pursue split into 2 publicly traded co's (create first Casino REIT) (trading +17%) • Applied Materials revs & profit beat ests but outlook missed (revs $1.4B-$1.65B vs $1.73B) • Autodesk adj eps beat, revs missed & sees Q4 below estimates (Sandy hurt end of qtr) • Marvell eps inline & revs higher - results affected by slowdown in PC demand (trading +5%) • Gap eps inline but raised yr profit forecast for 3'd time (NAmerica sales up) (trading +2.5%) • Sears Holdings posted wider loss (sales declined for 231° straight qtr) (trading -7%) • Sina eps & revs beat ests but Q4 revenue outlook light ($132-$136M vs $152M) (trading -6%) • Starbucks authorizes additional 25 million shares for buyback program ($1.2 billion) • AB Inbev's purchase of Modelo received Mexican antitrust approval "without conditions" • Reckitt bid $42 for Schiff Nutrition, topping Bayer's $34, valuing company at $1.4bn (trading - 0.80%) • Henkel mixed Q3, sales light, EPS in line but poor vs peers, mid-term goals in line (trading -4.8%) • LSE good H1, EPS driven by treasury (low quality), div ahead, no LCH comments (trading ) • Lafarge & Anglo American announce disposals to Mittal for £272mn (trading -0.50%) • Aegis O3 outperforms peers, 0entsu completion on track for Feb 2013 (trading +0.65%) • Volvo October truck deliveries down YoY but better MoM, driven by Europe (trading unch) • Michelin reports good October industry Ws, potential for upping guidance (trading +1.2%) • Electrolux very weak Oct ARAM #'s vs recent CEO guidance at CMD on 11/14 (trading -0.60%) • STM denies break up rumours ahead of Dec restructuring plan announcement (trading -2.2%) • TNT Express to sell Pan Air Lineas areas to ASL (TNTE NA trading +0.33%) • Publicis now cautious on year end prospects vs recent upbeat Oct release (trading +0.36%) • Melrose IMS revs in line, very cautious outlook, slowing trends, lowering guidance (trading -13.2%) • Man Group sells residual Lehman exposure to Hutchinson for $456mn cash (trading -1.2%) EFTA_R1_00820441 EFTA02154413 • LVMH to raise 2013 jewelry prices on raw material costs (speaking at conf in Rome) (trading - 1.2%) • Greek govemment is officially rolling over the 65 billion in bonds that mature today • France blasts Economist cover that suggests France is ticking time bomb (Image) (link) Leading European Sectors: Tech +0.69%, Food/By +0.15%, Tray/Les +0.05% Lagging European Sectors: Banks -1.31%, Insurance -1.01%, Oil & Gas -0.97% KNX special dividend — HLSS raises dividend — ARUN penny better LL $50M shr buyback — WTSLA loss but sees sales up — HAYN ft's light SSTK boosts rev view — DOLE revs trailed ests — ATW #'s better DVAX fails to win fda backing — MATW beats — MTSC earnings light Secondaries (announced/priced): PRLB, NGLS IPO's (filed/priced): Ruckus Wireless (RKUS) 8.4M shares priced @ $15 (high-end of range), Boise Cascade (BCC) files $200M through Both & GS Key Research: Barcap upgrades COP, Macquarie initiates FRAN (op) and ANN/CHS (op's) Key Research: Mizuho upgrades CPHD (buy), Compass Point initiates AMTD/ETFC/SCHW (neuts) Key Research: SunTrust initiates ISRGNAR (buy's) and HOLXJCPTS/IART/SYK/ZMH (neuts) Key Research: Piper upgrades ARTC, Wells upgrades NLY/HPY/IVR/MFA/CMO/HTS & initiates MITT (op) Key Research: Wells resumes CHKP/FTNT/FIRE (op's) and SYMC/PANW (mp's) Key Research: BMO cuts AEO, Nomura upgrades CIT (buy), MKM upgrades DLTR (buy) Key Research: JMP resumes EXAS/OSUR (op), GS cuts JBLU (sell), Baird upgrades RF Key Research: Canaccord upgrades GPS, Bernstein initiates KRFT (mp), DB upgrades HLSS (buy) Key Research: Citi upgrades ROP (buy), Imperial initiates VLO/TSO (in line) and HFC (op) Key Research: GS downgrade EXO IM, Liberum upgrade PRO LN, Panmure upgrade SRP LN Key Research: RBC downgrade XTA LN, BofAML downgrade PNN LN, BofAML upgrade ITX SM EFTA_R1_00820442 EFTA02154414 Key Research: BofAML upgrade IPN FP, UBS downgrade MRW LN, CS upgrade PNN LN Key Research: Barc downgrade PNN LN, ABN initiate on DWNI GY, Panm upgrade HFD LN Key Research: Citi downgrade MTO LN, DNB upgrade TLV1V FR, Citi downgrade SAS SS Key Research: Nordea upgrade ATCOA BB, Helvea upgrade SCHP VX, Numis downgrade SGP LN Key Research: Chev downgrade Fl/ SW, Chev upgrade AF FP, Oriel upgrade TSCO LN, ING upgrade KIN BB Reporting Pre-Open: SJM, CMRG, CYBX, FL, HH, HIBB, MY, SIRO Reporting Post-Close: NTZ Economic Data: TIC Flows © 9am, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization © 9:15am Fed Speakers: George © 9am (Panama City, FL), Lockhart © 4:20pm (Charlottesville, VA) Conferences: CS US National Healthcare (Phoenix), RBC MLP (Dallas), W Blair Real Estate Services and Technology Summit (Boston) Analystilnvestor Days: FWLT, NTCT, CI, DGX Non-Deal Roadshows: ALV, BCS, BMC, CPST, CTL, INCY, LNCE, MANU, MDVN, MOVE, NWL, PAAS, SFY, SNSS, TASR, TDG Shareholder Meetings: TW, CGI, MCRS, TAX, LEI Equity/Mixed Shelfs: TGB ($500M) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories EFTA_R1_00820443 EFTA02154415 Barron's positive: Wal-Mart & Target (WMT, TGT) Barron's WSJ cautious: Viacom (VIAB) WSJ • BP Slapped With Record Fine WSJ • Israel Mobilizes Troops as Hostilities Escalate WSJ • Qatar to Vote in Favor of Xstrata-Glencore Deal WSJ • Central, Eastern European Economies Hit by Euro-Zone Crisis WSJ • Stephen Moore: Why Lower Tax Rates Are Good for Everyone WSJ Opinion • Ex-Needham CFO Arrested in Theft From Firm WSJ • Behind Mark Pincus's Bid to Save Zynga WSJ • Funds Bet Against Japan Inc. WSJ • F.D.A. Posts Injury Data for 3 Drinks NYT • Keystone's path grows rougher Globe and Mail • Eurozone slides back into recession FT • France 'not sick man of Europe', says Paris FT • Merkel has decided to pay up for the euro FT • Warning on £66bn public bank stakes FT • Nervous consumer drags down Dutch economy FT • Italy urged to cut public spending FT • China, India and Russia less business friendly FT • China's leadership — appearance and reality FT • 1930s medicine pushes Europe back into double-dip recession Telegraph • Like it or not, Beijing and Berlin must pay Telegraph • Japan downgrades economy for fourth month Telegraph • Chinese perma-growth at risk as Leninists tighten Politburo grip Telegraph • High street slump hints at black Christmas The Times EFTA_R1_00820444 EFTA02154416 • Usmanov revives MegaFon's London float The Times • Draghi urges action after eurozone falls into recession Guardian • How to get the East talking to the West Independent Key Events Next Week Sunday: China October home prices Monday: Ira Sohn Conference London, NAHB Housing Market Index, Existing Home Sales, Earnings (LOW, TSN, URBN, NUAN) Tuesday: Eurogroup meeting to discuss Greece aid tranche & debt sustainability, Bernanke speaks at Economic Club NY, Housing Starts & Building Permits, China Leading Economic Index, BOJ rate decision, RBA Minutes, Glencore-Xstrata merger vote, Earnings (BBY, CPB, HNZ, HPO, HRL, MDT, PDCO, CRM) Wednesday: US & China Flash PMI, U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence, Leading Indicators, China Flash PMI, Earnings (DE) Thursday: Thanksgiving (US Markets Closed), Eurozone Flash PMI, European Leaders Summit (Nov 22-23) Friday: US equity markets close at 1pm, US bond markets close at 2pm, Black Friday for US retailers Key Events on the Horizon November 25 — Catalonia regional election in Spain November 28 — EU FinMin teleconference (tentative) EFTA_R1_00820445 EFTA02154417 November 30 - MSCI semi-annual index rebalance December 6 — ECB & BOE rate decisions December 12 - FOMC rate decision December 22-January 20 - US Congress scheduled to adjourn January 30 — Launch date for RIM's Blackberry 10 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and Intended only for the person or entity to which It Is addressed. 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