EFTA01113846Set 9
2012-10-049p3,880w
including in his count a preliminary revision of jobs figures that BLS will not finalize until next
year.
The current BLS numbers are based on monthly surveys of businesses ... jobs
grew by 4.63 million between February 2010 and August of this year.
But BLS often revises those figures. Each year, the agency looks over companies' tax records ... more accurate number, a process that takes several months. In late September, BLS released a
preliminary estimate for its revised numbers, adding 453,000 private-sector jobs to its count
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01113846.pdf
EFTA01474964Set 10
2015-10-02168p16,614w
/bbl
Brent spot month end, $/bbl
Source: Deutsche Bank, ISM, Federal Reserve, Census, DOL, BLS, EIA, WSJ, CME
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
1Q15
47.9
Jul
49.2
Current
Month ... Recession
Full-time employed (% of employed, rhs)
Source: BLS, Deutsche Bank
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
Participation rate (% of 16 yrs+ pop, lhs)
Figure 13: Wage growth ... Funds Target (lhs)
Avg. hourly earnings (Production and non-supervisory, y/y, rhs)
Source: BLS, Deutsche Bank
Figure 14: Productivity vs Unit Labor Cost
Rolling 2 yr average
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01474964.pdf
EFTA01476261Set 10
2015-12-0942p6,786w
sector; real wage growth is
employment cost index compensation minus core PCE inflation
Source: BLS, BEA, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank Research
Research
Deutsche Bank
thehouseview@list.db.com http://houseview.research.db.com
TheHouseView Special ... inflation, given that CPI inflation tends to run a few tenths
about PCE.
Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank Research
Unemployment rate is already at full employment and will continue ... full employment
estimate (4.9-5.2%)
2011
Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank Research
11
Note (#): FOMC committee's leadership (Yellen, Fischer and Dudley) likely
expect only 3-4 hikes
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01476261.pdf
EFTA01177405Set 9
2012-06-045p2,930w
magnitude (again) overestimate them, PayroI predclon error. thousands. 6-rnonth movngaverage
isu Coral BLS
300
65 50 5500 overestimation
Effoloymerelorcel ... Sane: BLS, ISM. Conference Board. JFIAAM. Soiree: BLS, ISM, Conference Board, JPMAM.
On the payroll report, recently improving labor surveys from the Conference Board, the Institute for Supply Management
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01177405.pdf
EFTA01136756Set 9
2013-04-016p3,384w
Source: Federal Reserve Bowl. Source: FR6 of KC. Empirical Research Partners. Source: BLS, Eutostat.
US initial jobless claims US auto sales Real Personal Consumption
4-week moving average, thousands Millions ... Performance. MBA. Source: BLS. Census. Empmai Reseal% Parings. Source Nomu a Securries .P. h organSec ribs.
US business conditions are also improving, after pausing last fall during the elections ... circled references to prior periods of long-term growth rates below zero.
BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics
CBO Congressional Budget Office
C&1 Commercial & Industrial
ECB European Central Bank
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01136756.pdf
EFTA00543691Set 9
2018-06-015p1,002w
Benedictus Banamtuan fr-"
Cc: Richard Kahn Bella Klein , Daphne
Wallace , Paola Rengifo
Subject: Fwd: Bls: Re: Furniture shipping from Bali
Date: Fri, 01 Jun 2018 22:14:35 +0000
Dear ... Benedictus Banamtuan
Date: May 23, 2018 at 4:15:32 AM EDT
To:
Subject: Bls: Re: Bls: Furniture shipping from Bali
Dear
Please send me your Port destination. I will
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00543691.pdf
EFTA01136762Set 9
2013-04-015p3,649w
Source: Federal Reserve Board. Sour e: FRB of KC. Empirical Research Partners. Source:BLS. Eurostat.
US initial jobless claims US auto sales Real Personal Consumption
4-week moving average, thousands ... rmance. MBA. Soiree: BLS, Census, Empiical Research Partners. Source Nomu a Securit•es.J.P. org n Securities.
EFTA01136762
Eye on the Market I April 1, 2013 J.P.Morgan
Topics: American vs European ... Morgan
Topics: American vs European Roulette, rising US equity markets and continued European underpeformance
BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics
CBO Congressional Budget Office
C&I Commercial & Industrial
ECB European Central
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01136762.pdf
EFTA01476303Set 10
2015-11-20252p27,629w
Recession
Full-time employed (% of employed, rhs)
Source: BLS, Deutsche Bank
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
Participation rate ... Production and non-supervisory, y/y, rhs)
Avg. hourly earnings (All employees, y/y, rhs)
Source: BLS, FRB, Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Page 15
1960
1963
EFTA01476383 ... Ratio
Pvt cos. with 1-99 employees total comp. $/hr
Source: BLS, Deutsche Bank
Pvt cos. with 500+ employees total comp. $/hr
Figure 38: S&P industry-level returns
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01476303.pdf
EFTA00596722Set 9
2012-08-133p2,230w
cell Morgan Asset Management, Markt Morgan Securities LLC. Source: BLS, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, JPMAM.
Another way to think about this: there's so much pessimism around, that a positive ... addition, we used payrolls as
reported at the time (and not after subsequent BLS revisions), since we want to look at contemporaneous market reactions.
3 There were 3 payroll reports ... Source: Standard .4 Poor's, BEA,. Morgan Asset Management.
ECRI: Economic Cycle Research Institute
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics
ETF: Exchange-Traded Fund
QE: quantitative easing
LTRO: Long-Term Refinancing
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00596722.pdf
EFTA00309111Set 9
2010-07-2041p15,308w
modeling agencies around the world confirming this.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS"), the median hourly wage for models in the
United States (on a nationwide basis ... earners (i.e.
the 90th percentile and above) earned more than$26.28 per hour — see BLS wage data attached
at Exhibit J. Therefore, based on a standard 8-hour work ... work —
this is the national average.
12
EFTA00309139
Further. according to the BLS data at Exhibit J, the states with the highest employment level
among models were California
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00309111.pdf
EFTA01180283Set 9
2012-08-133p2,256w
Source:J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Maddt,J.P. Morgan Securities LW. Source: BLS, Philadelphia Federal Reserve. Bloomberg, JPMAM.
Another way to think about this: there's so much pessimism around, that ... addition, we used payrolls as
reported at the time (and not after subsequent BLS revisions), since we want to look at contemporaneous market reactions.
3 There were 3 payroll reports ... Standard 8 Poor's, BEA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
ECRI: Economic Cycle Research Institute
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics
ETF: Exchange-Traded Fund
QE: quantitative easing
LTRO: Long-Term Refinancing
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01180283.pdf
EFTA01069643Set 9
4p2,913w
magnitude (again) overestimate them, PayrolpredicMn error, thousands. 6-month movingaverage
iSM Cord ed BLS
300
65 so - overestimation ... Source: BLS.ISM,Conference Board, JPMAM.
Source: BLS. ISM. Conference Board. JPMAM.
China
When I started at J.P. Morgan in 1987, China's share of global GDP was considerably less than
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01069643.pdf
EFTA01154025Set 9
2014-09-2120p16,048w
unemployment. It is a measure tracked since 19oo and called 'U6: today by the BLS. As this chart shows below, the difference between reported unemployment and
all unemployment - including those ... creation, and much more by long-term demographic trends. As this chart from the BLS shows, as the Baby
Boomers entered the workforce and societal acceptance of women working changed
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01154025.pdf