EFTA02444385Set 11
7p1,891w
theory can be used to model inference under uncertainty. The particular way in
which Bayes'formula is stated, which is of only minor importance in standard probability
textbooks, becomes central ... this context. When events can be interpreted as evidences
and hypotheses, Bayes'formula allows one to update one's belief in a hypothesis in light of
new data.
Is unaided ... same book David M. Eddy stressed that medical doctors do not
follow Bayes'formula when solving the following task:
Theprobability that a woman at age 40 has breast cancer
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2011/EFTA02444385.pdf