EFTA01415820Set 10
2017-10-31222p30,137w
Rails
Date
31 October 2017
Initiation of Coverage
Flipping the Script - Buy CP, Sell CNI
Seldon Clarke, CFA
Associate Analyst
Amit Mehrotra
Research Analyst
Kenya Watson
Research Associate
Chris Snyder ... industry. We are positive on Canadian
Pacific
(CP, Buy) and cautious on Canadian National (CNI, Sell), as we see overall
market
share and earnings trajectory driving a reversal in recent ... trends. All
told we forecast CP to grow EPS at double the rate of CNI (+30% for CP vs.
+15%
for CNI cumulatively through 2019), which together with capex
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01415820.pdf
EFTA01476254Set 10
2015-12-017p2,311w
milestone in its quest to win a bigger global role for
the Chinese yuan (CNY).
— The IMF has approved the inclusion of the CNY in its currency basket for
Special ... Drawing Rights (SDR), effective Oct 1st,
2016
— The CNY will have a 10.92% weight, the third highest weight behind the
U.S. dollar (USD) at 42% (unchanged) and the euro
(previously ... member encounters payment difficulties. Inclusion in this
basket effectively gives the CNY the IMF's stamp
of approval as a global reserve currency.
Central banks around the world
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01476254.pdf
EFTA01475276Set 10
14p1,355w
pricing of the Fed after the weak
NFP; 2) a more benign view of CNY ahead of the SDR review, and
given better China reserves data, and stronger fixings ... curves are trading below spot.
• KRW and IDR are now trading stronger than pre-CNY deval levels
(Chart 3). PHP and THB have retraced all their losses since the
China ... premium on the MAS event. Other vol curves
have been normalizing, namely the CNY and CNH curves as the
market is increasingly convinced of the "stable-until-SDR-review"
thesis
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01475276.pdf
EFTA01464418Set 10
2013-05-1660p12,430w
from a pickup
in bond and equity inflows after the recent election.
As for CNY, at annualized appreciation pace of 12%,
we are concerned. The state of the economy does ... should reduce the appreciation
pressure. Moreover, a band-widening should, if
anything, lead to CNY weakness. We like to sell CNY
via options.
Rest of EM
Of the remaining currencies ... trade at the bottom of the band around
the fix, which implies still significant CNY demand.
However, this state-of-affairs is unlikely to continue not
least because the much
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01464418.pdf
EFTA01371087Set 10
2017-10-311p539w
Rails 31 October 2017
Railroads Initiation of Coverage
Flipping the Script - Buy CP, Sell CNI
Station Chfi31, CFA
Initiating Coverage of Canadian Rails
We are expanding our coverage of Transportation ... positive on Canadian Pacific +1.212.2605969
(CP, Buy) and cautious on Canadian National (CNI, Sell), as we see overall market Amlt Mehrotra
share and earnings trajectory driving a reversal in recent ... Research Analyst
told we forecast CP to grow EPS at double the rate of CNI (+3CP/0 for CP vs. +15%
+1.212-2502076
for CNI cumulatively through 2019), which together
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01371087.pdf
EFTA01464478Set 10
2013-02-2892p11,990w
clearly peak against the dollar. This group includes, the AUD, JPY, SGD
and CNY (see
Figure 4).
It is this group that will likely provide the most definitive sign that ... being at
least 5% lower than
previous high*
* Yet to peak with 5% rule:
CNY, THB, PHP, SGD, TWD,
MYR, NZD, AUD, JPY
Figure 4: Dollar Yet To Firmly Turn ... Source: Deutsche Bank, EcoWin
Source: Deutsche Bank, EcoWin
CNY, EUR, JPY and the rest: Where Next?
The case for yen weakness is straightforward. We expect
central bank balance sheet
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01464478.pdf
EFTA01371089Set 10
2017-10-311p519w
industry. We are positive on Canadian Pacific
(CP. Buy) and cautious on Canadian National (CNI, Sell), as we see overall market
share and earnings trajectory driving a reversal in recent ... trends. All
told we forecast CP to grow EPS at double the rate of CNI (+30% for CP vs. + 15%
for CNI cumulatively through 2019), which together with capex ... free cash
trends should drive re-rating at CP and de-rating for CNI. In this report we present
a primer on the Canadian rail industry, with deep dives
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01371089.pdf
EFTA01379382Set 10
2015-12-111p630w
December 11, 2015,
China's Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) published a new CNY effective exchange rate (CNY CFETS basket).
According to the CFETS statement, the intention was to "shift ... border transactions such as those related to trade are permitted, and will use the CNY onshore rate. This,
however, must (1) occur through designated clearing banks and (2) be supported ... appropriate documentation.
Onshore CNY products
FX spot
Regulatory: Only licensed onshore counterparties are allowed. CNY spot can currently be traded against
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01379382.pdf
EFTA01371125Set 10
2017-10-311p352w
volume (measured in carloads) x yield (measured in
average revenue per carload). Revenue at CNI has increased at a 5.1% CAGR since
2000 amidst modest growth in volumes (2.0% CAGR ... chemicals (+5.7%) while coal (1.8% CAGR) and autos (1.9% CAGR) have been
laggards. CNI's network, which connects three coasts in North America, and its
exceptional service levels have helped ... CAGR
vs. 2.0% on avg. for other Class l's). In 2016, CNI generated just over C512B in
revenue marking a 4.6% yoy decline from 2015.
Figure 105: CNI Revenue
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01371125.pdf
EFTA01149102Set 9
2011-10-1225p8,091w
space but be selective (SGD, MYR,CNY)
TRY has already lost 35% since In euro debt crisis context,
Strong growth, reasonable current-account and fiscal the Nov 2010 high. Most ... still vulnerable to euro crisis, but as the CHF of Asia. L
CNY, SGD, MYR Relatively small market
fundamentals are solid and political context stable.
though.
New benchmark in EMEA ... central bank is maintaining a gradual currency appreciation approach and continues to use
CNY as a tool to contain inflationary pressures and to support local purchasing power.
CNY
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01149102.pdf
EFTA01090474Set 9
2011-11-1524p14,876w
Chinese society toward greater
Treasury holdings over the next five-to-ten years. CNY may social responsibility; in part spurred by public anger
appreciate by up to 50% against ... today. This is entirely and current account relationships among China, Europe, and
understandable. With CNY still carefully managed by the United States can be found in the gold price. Since ... likely probabilities of a European sovereign
debt default, Euro or USD crisis (vs. the CNY), and the
However, many operators working exclusively in the Barnett coming success or failure
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01090474.pdf
EFTA01377053Set 10
2016-08-191p387w
Perspectives
From the Regions
Asset C€asses
Forecasts
Facts & Figures
FX
..IPY and CNY trends
• The USD has weakened in recent days, due to declining expectations of a
Fed rate ... July peak of 6.70,
and is hovering at around 6.63 levels. The daily CNY fixing has also been
driven down by USD weakness. China authorities have been managing the
CNY ... against a basket of currencies
• Despite this, the CNY is one of the notable under-performers among Asian
currencies, along with the SGD. The CNY's real effective exchange rate
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01377053.pdf
EFTA01459706Set 10
2016-01-121p614w
also affects a .1 4
PHP INR THB MYR TTAD KRW SGD IDR CNY
majority of developed North Asia (Singapore, Korea,
Taiwan). The weakness in growth profiles should mean Step ... tool-end tete spreads is the :errer, sr
/Isis!) FY
;:re
TWD. CNY. MYR and KRW. In other words, if rates in
these markets rise less than ... indeed fall even
20% -
10%
0%
PHP INR
San aftada Sava LEK
iJ
IDR CNY TWO , KRW T SGO THB MYR
as US rates rise), compressing the rate differential, this
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01459706.pdf