EFTA01411427Set 10
2015-05-31202p28,772w
OPEC growth: Late to the
party 8
Where is the growth coming
from? 10
Capex
Reductions 15
Show me the money (or lack
thereof) 15
Setting the stage ... OPEC collapse? Don't hold your breath
Given the scale of cuts to global capex (20% across our global coverage
universe), many in the market have speculated about the imminent ... Growth (Avg)
Source: Deutsche Bank, Wood Mackenzie, IEA
Despite the large cut to headline capex, this is largely consistent with the
source of the capex cuts, with the largest share
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01411427.pdf
EFTA01415820Set 10
2017-10-31222p30,137w
cumulatively through 2019), which together with capex and free cash
trends should drive re-rating at CP and de-rating for CNI. In this report we
present
a primer ... cumulatively through 2019), which together with capex and free cash
trends should drive re-rating at CP and de-rating for CNI. In this report we
present
a primer ... Precision Railroading.
The
combination of CNI's slower prospective earnings growth and high capex (20%
of
sales) implies 15.5x P/E under our DCF-derived methodology, implying
potential
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01415820.pdf
EFTA01432866Set 10
2018-07-01106p17,893w
conditions and ageing assets should provide a
supportive environment.
IIIP growth has historically led capex growth by around one year, and
from unsustainably low levels we believe a rebound ... improving gas industry fundamentals from cost
efficiencies, investment discipline, consolidation and end-market
stabilisation. Capex to sales has fallen from c14% in 2012/13 to c12% in
2016, and consolidation should ... over
20% of pro-forma EBIT — of which $1bn is cost savings and $200m capex
savings).
— The key logic is diversification (geographical and end-user), given
complementary regional
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01432866.pdf
EFTA01097655Set 9
2015-01-13160p88,327w
management teams were bullish in the face of increasing service costs,
and capex budgets looked to be rising as higher than anticipated oil prices
drove greater than expected cash flow ... response
Other non.OPEC 44.4 44.8 45.1 45.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 Risk of delays, disruption & capex cuts
Non-OPEC Supply 54.6 56.5 57.8 58.8 1.8 1.3 13
OPEC NGLa ... eamings, we use that. Otherwise, we used the street consensus with
adjustments to both capex and production based on credit rating. With that in
mind, in 2015, we assume
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01097655.pdf
EFTA01380760Set 10
2015-10-071p619w
cash position. USD5bn
San* one. art Olaf Rosa*
Elm\ rtiotivated is Petrohrw to reduce capex further'
One of the key initiatives a levered cyclical company normally takes (or is
forced ... creditors to take) during a downcycle is to significantly cut capex, in
addition to cutting costs and dividends and selling non-core assets, particularly
in more capital intensive industries like ... much such
company actually does reduce its capex depends on its cash burn, funding gap,
cost profile and access to credit. Cutting capex beyond the level to sustain
production levels
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01380760.pdf
EFTA01378484Set 10
2015-10-071p619w
cash position. USD5bn
San* one. art Olaf Rosa*
Elm\ rtiotivated is Petrohrw to reduce capex further'
One of the key initiatives a levered cyclical company normally takes (or is
forced ... creditors to take) during a downcycle is to significantly cut capex, in
addition to cutting costs and dividends and selling non-core assets, particularly
in more capital intensive industries like ... much such
company actually does reduce its capex depends on its cash burn, funding gap,
cost profile and access to credit. Cutting capex beyond the level to sustain
production levels
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01378484.pdf
EFTA01357784Set 10
2015-01-131p479w
earnings, we use that. Otherwise, we used the street consensus with
adjustments to both capex and production based on credit rating. With that in
mind, in 2015, we assume ... follow the consensus estimates
as given; street consensus for 66s is generally +/- 10% YoY capex growth with
corresponding production growth rates in the 20-30% YoY area. For B-rated ... credits, we assume a decrease in capex of 25% YoY with a 5 percentage point
decline in the corresponding expected consensus production growth. For
CCC-rated credits, we again assume
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01357784.pdf
EFTA02029821Set 10
2020-10-1524p12,977w
FY13, we estimate Dana will generate $424mm in core free cash
flow (EBITDA less capex, interest and taxes), which represents 47% of its
outstanding debt. Dana's bond covenants ... cash
bum is offset by £0.5bn in estimated working capital inflows, JLR's capex should
ANALYS remain elevated for the next couple years ... potential for projects in Brazil and Saudi Arabia,
FOCUS we project 2014-15 capex to average £2.7bn per year. These levels of capex arc
£1.0bn above the average
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA02029821.pdf
EFTA01367334Set 10
2015-05-311p438w
Integrated Oil
US Integrated Oils
Capex Reductions
Show me the money (or ack therecyr)
In addition to the relatively robust queue of project starts, the production
outlook is largely supported ... what we have seen in global capex trends,
where cuts have been disproportionately driven by major project deferral (ie.
FID delays, with volume impact felt 3-5 years out), rather ... than cuts to
brownfield/maintenance spend. In other words, the nature of the capex cuts
are likely to have a significant impact on production growth in the latter part of
this
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367334.pdf
EFTA01357808Set 10
2015-01-131p487w
this would
be one of the major factors in determining the FY 15 capex program. Besides
a solid financial profile, XEC's asset quality and strong operational momentum
are both ... unparalleled. In its core Permian play (-55% of FY 14E Permian
capex budget), XEC has successfully drilled longer laterals with upsized fracs
providing solid upside to well returns ... Mmcfe/d. Driven by the positive developments in Mid-Continent
(24% of FY 14 Capex), XEC plans to increase capex in this play for FY 15. The
quality Permian and Cana
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01357808.pdf