EFTA01437704Set 10
2000-01-0754p14,594w
looks distant.
The stakes are particularly high for the European Central Bank (ECB) and the
Bank
of Japan (BOJ), amidst growing concerns that they are running out of options.
Past ... index points
ECB announces
QE
China devalues
the yuan
ECB lowers interest
rate, however markets
are disappointed
Global monetary policy action
has been the key driver for equity
markets ... 01/2015
03/2015
05/2015
07/2015
09/2015
ECB hints at
further loosening
11/2015
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Deutsche Asset Management Investment GmbH;
as of 03/2016
01/2016
03/2016
The past year has seen
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01437704.pdf
EFTA01475956Set 10
2015-12-08298p51,111w
commence policy normalization. Spillovers from
the Fed's move will help the ECB and the BoJ to achieve their inflation
targets,
as prospective rate increases in the US further strengthen ... eventually rising commodity prices,
supportive currency developments, and rising inflation expectations could
lead
the ECB to start talking before year end about tapering in 2017. In this
light,
the recent ... World Outlook 2016: Managing with less liquidity
But the changing market expectations for ECB and Bo] policy have the
potential to induce another bout of market turbulence akin
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01475956.pdf
EFTA01089574Set 9
2013-02-2145p23,567w
business investment spending. Inflation is expected to continue to trend
downward below 2%. The ECB is concerned about the risks to money market rates from the early LTRO repayments Source ... forecasts, CIO economists
and the rise of the euro. At this juncture though, the ECB remains in wait-and-see mode. worked in collaboration with economists employed ... Congress Source: JP Morgan, Bloomberg, UBS; as of January 2012
7 Mar EMU: ECB press conference Note: Past performance is not an indication of future returns.
20 Mar US: FOMC
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01089574.pdf
EFTA01180622Set 9
2012-08-224p2,044w
break-up risks. His argument: higher yields in the periphery prevent the ECB from easing
monetary policy efficiently. As such, the ECB is likely to buy as many periphery bonds ... given a thumbs up to Draghi3. The
Germans did, however, deny rumors that the ECB is willing to go as far as capping yields for the periphery4. But
what Otto ... never believe anything in politics until it has been
officially denied". After all, former ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet denied that the ECB was discussing bond
purchases just four days
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01180622.pdf
EFTA01089619Set 9
2013-04-2546p24,794w
Eurozone economy remains on a weak footing, and we expect
equities and US the ECB to cut its refinancing rate in May. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently surprised with ... publication and may change
(in line with consensus) given economic data so far. The ECB is hesitant to cut rates and wants first to see more without notice.
evidence ... moroauvog —corroove mxionoe len
1 May US: FOMC monetary policy decision
2 May Eurozone: ECB press conference Source: JP Morgan, Bloomberg, UBS; as of April 2013
3 May US: Nonfarm
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01089619.pdf
EFTA01089722Set 9
2012-06-2944p20,625w
economy by increasing its amount of bond purchases soon. The probability that the ECB will take without notice.
further action to support the economy has risen significantly.
Global economic momentum ... June
Source: Bloomberg, UBS ao, as of 22 June 2012
5 July Eurozone: ECB press conference
• DM= developed markets, EM = emerging markets
24 July Eurozone: purchasing managers indices (PMI), July ... Spain, Italy and Portugal? 65
• In what direction will the economy and the ECB go?
60
CIO View (Probability: 65%•) Austerity and weak growth 55
• Support for the banking sector
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01089722.pdf
EFTA00603165Set 9
4p2,852w
people can disagree on what is happening, and what it means. Now that the ECB has opened the spigot,
there's no shortage of optimism: as one example, the head ... primary catalyst for the rally since November, it remains an Achilles heel. ECB repo operations
have been life-savers for European governments and banks, but will Europe keep printing ... Bundesbank head Jens
Weidmann reportedly sent a strongly-worded letter to ECB head Mario Draghi regarding Germany's concerns about ECB
financing being permanent, and on declining ECB collateral standards
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00603165.pdf
EFTA01172052Set 9
2011-12-055p2,871w
Market, December 5, 2011 (attached PDF easier to read)
Topics: Fig leaves preceding the ECB bonanza, better US data, and the US residential housing outlook (still
flat/down)
This will ... jump from 70 billion to 120 billion. Even with lower issuance in Q4 and ECB purchases, Italian yields rose anyway.
Let's not waste time wondering about multiple outcomes ... adhere to, making Maastricht 2.0 not that different from Maastricht 1.0. However, the ECB (headed by Italian Mario
Draghi) is likely to greet summit pronouncements as if they were
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01172052.pdf
EFTA01070751Set 9
5p3,902w
foot the bill. A year later, it looks like they will get their wish. ECB President Draghi said all
steps will be taken to preserve the Eurozone, and that elevated ... lending to entities that will do it for him.
In doing so, the ECB's balance sheet could easily grow by another trillion Euros (see below), at which point ... balance sheets, percent of GDP
45%
governments are postponed, banks benefit from increased net ECB plus E't trillion •
income due to cheap funding from the central bank, and there
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01070751.pdf
EFTA01180916Set 9
2012-09-046p3,821w
foot the bill. A year later, it looks like they will get their wish. ECB
President Draghi said all steps will be taken to preserve the Eurozone, and that elevated ... lending to entities that will do it for him.
In doing so, the ECB's balance sheet could easily grow by another trillion Euros (see below), at which point ... pretty.
EFTA01180916
The European Creosote Bank?
Central bank balance sneers. percentof GDP
45%
ECB plus Cl trillion
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01180916.pdf
EFTA01180848Set 9
2012-09-104p2,296w
acro Skinny
September 10, 2012
Central banks on the move
1/ The ECB launched its new bond-buying program on Thursday, called "Outright Monetary
Transactions", or OMT. The details ... line with our expectations (August 22nd
Macro Skinny). Key features include: (i) the ECB is prepared to buy whatever it takes to bring
periphery yields down. This will finally allow ... sharp decline in ECB rates since 2008 to be
felt in the periphery. (ii) Crucially, these purchases won't subordinate private sector investors, as
has been the case
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01180848.pdf
EFTA00759938Set 9
2010-05-106p2,419w
right, but only because Greece is actually
worse (a). Some are critical of the ECB; not sure that's fair, since their options are all pretty terrible. The Sovereign
Default ... typical post-
recession growth mode.
First, what has the European Central Bank (ECB) done so far to help?
As shown, the ECB is now lending more to its financial system ... crisis was a liquidity squeeze]. But
unlike the Fed and Bank of England, the ECB has done almost no "quantitative easing" (QE), which refers to the printing
of money
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00759938.pdf
EFTA01180844Set 9
2012-09-104p2,351w
Images: image001.png; image002.png; image005.jpg
September 10, 2012
Central banks on the move
1/ The ECB launched its new bond-buying program on Thursday, called "Outright Monetary Transactions ... line with our expectations (August 22nd Macro Skinny). Key
features include: (i) the ECB is prepared to buy whatever it takes to bring periphery yields downs. This will
finally allow ... sharp decline in ECB rates since 2008 to be felt in the periphery. (ii) Crucially, these purchases
won't subordinate private sector investors, as has been the case
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01180844.pdf
EFTA00601815Set 9
2012-01-203p2,091w
capitulation on monetary expansion. The mechanism: the long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) of the ECB,
shown in the first chart. I did not foresee this kind of radical policy being ... into place so aggressively and so quickly. The
ECB is printing money, and lending it to just about any European bank against practically any asset it owns, for three years ... Italian yield curves have collapsed. With
demand from national champion banks, and assuming continued ECB purchases of government debt, 2012 Spanish and Italian
financing needs do not look as onerous
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00601815.pdf
EFTA02349438Set 11
2013-07-307p1,922w
euro is marginally stronger against the USD this morning ahead of this week's ECB policy meeting. Euro area
consumer confidence improved for a third month in July (as expected ... three months leading up to July. Near term, month-end flows, FOMC, Thursday's ECB meeting and Friday payrolls
should drive price action.
Thanks,
Amanda
Amanda Ens I Vice President ... material in its entirety, whether in electronic or hard copy
format.
Europe Economic Research
ECB to stick with its guidance
If this email does not display properly, click here
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2011/EFTA02349438.pdf
EFTA00662351Set 9
2016-03-102p1,086w
From: Richard Kahn
To: "Jeffrey E" <jeevacation@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd: The ECB Loosened Policy Aggressively, Supporting our Eurozone Outlook and Portfolio Positioning
Date ... Floor
New York, NY 10022
Begin forwarded message:
From: Judie Taylor <
Subject: The ECB Loosened Policy Aggressively, Supporting our Eurozone Outlook and Portfolio
Positioning
Date: March ... March 10, 2016
The ECB Loosened Policy Aggressively, Supporting our Eurozone Outlook and Portfolio Positioning
The ECB loosened policy aggressively at the March 10th Governing Council Meeting. The ECB lowered
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00662351.pdf