EFTA01466396Set 10
2013-12-11105p20,860w
their DM counterparts; if anything, the
negative drivers are becoming more pronounced in EM; 3) The polarisation
between overvalued sectors on the back of good governance (Healthcare,
Consumer Staples ... their badly governed peers (Energy, Financials) remains
at extreme levels, highlighting the difficulty facing EM investors.
Investors should focus on the relationship between state and corporate
sector,
not on short ... term fund flows as the key driver of EM economies and equities
Investors have become overly focused on the potential impact of short term
fund flows over recent years
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01466396.pdf
EFTA01172124Set 9
8p6,006w
forecasts. Seamus Mac Gorain
Foreign exchange — A weaker US dollar and good returns on EM currencies.
Commodities — Weak demand in Q1 should turn to a strong H2, helping
commodities ... turned down by mid-year as we cut growth projections. 2012 will instead start EM Local Bonds"
with a surplus of bearish growth views and defensive positions. For the year ... EMS Corp. ■
as a whole, we see 2% global growth, split between 0.9% in DM and 4.7% in US cash
EM. The first half is set to produce only
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01172124.pdf
EFTA00678712Set 9
2013-08-105p2,773w
European
ovenveight, and are considering at what point we need to cut our EM undenveight vs. Japan.
• Economics — Data are tracking the expected rebound in Global GDP growth, with balanced ... Bond duration should be traded on local conditions: short in US, Euro area and EM; long in Japan and
Australia, neutral in the UK.
• Equities — Open a Cyclical vs. Defensive ... sector overweight globally. Cut by half the ovenveight in Japan vs. EM.
EFTA00678712
• Credit — OW financials vs. non financials and Europe vs. the US.
• FX — We resist the rise
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00678712.pdf
EFTA01458627Set 10
2015-09-111p688w
over long periods, i.e., deviations are long
lived but cyclical and mean reverting. But EM FX by contrast is massively
structurally (always) cheap on a PPP basis, given their earlier ... stage of
economic development. EM real exchange rates will likely converge to PPP
only with the convergence of per capita incomes, i.e., in the very very long ... cheapness of EM FX on a PPP basis is not cyclical but
structural (How Much Will Fast Growing EM Currencies Appreciate, Sep
2005).
• The $35 trillion myth. Using PPP exchange
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01458627.pdf
EFTA01171349Set 9
8p5,883w
short in 2yr Germany.
• Equities — Focus risk on country trades: long EM vs. DM, long BRICs vs Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou
EM, long Japan vs. DM, long MSCI EMU vs. S&P500 ... long DAX vs.
Eurostoxx50.
• Credit — We move to UW US HG and prefer EM Sovereigns vs corporates. Seamus Mac Gorain
• Foreign exchange— We still prefer USD/JPY and EUR/JPY to EUR/USD ... reduce global rice exports considerably, Matthew Lehmann
leading to a potential rise in EM food price inflation.
• Risk markets reversed part of their post EU Summit short-covering rally this
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01171349.pdf
EFTA01176677Set 9
2012-05-048p5,874w
nikolaos.panigirrzoglou@jamorgan.com
• Equities — OW US vs. Euro area equities, DAX vs Eurostoxx50 and MSCI EM
Asia vs. MSCI EM. Seamus Mac Gorain
(44-20) 7777-2906
• Credit — Keep the focus ... once little to do with Europe where periphery, yields are down nicely. Instead, MSCI EM
we are seeing a number of economic data releases, punctuated by today's US Topa ... last week's US Q1 cut and this week downgrade of Taiwan. EMSCorp.
EM FX
Market attention has focused on weaker PMIs across the world and US jobs
MSCI Europe
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01176677.pdf
EFTA01176400Set 9
8p5,881w
both the US and Europe. Seamus Mac Gorain
• Credit — We move to marketweight EMS sovereigns overall although
NEXGEM sovereigns offer a good investment opportunity.
Matthew Lehmann
Foreign exchange — BoJ easing ... relative to the risks that already priced into markets. To put this into Finance
EM S Corp.
jargon, risk is high, but risk premia are even higher.
US High Yield ... week, but has to be assessed on a 3.12 month basis. A lot EM FX
of more tactical players have covered their longs in risk assets recently, on
Gold IMMO
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01176400.pdf
EFTA01123906Set 9
8p5,938w
High Grade O
our defensive exposures into a modest, net long risk position. EMBIG
EM Local Bonds" C
World markets continue to focus on an unchanged trio of macro risks ... three are massive risk premia on equities and credit over cash and safer EMS Cap. I
government bonds that make undenveighting riskier assets very expensive. US High Yield
Over ... remain bearish, if not scarred about the risks facing us, in particular given how EM FX ■
little central bankers can do about and how little fiscal policy makers seem
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01123906.pdf
EFTA01097815Set 9
2015-09-0447p20,445w
proportion
of distressed issuers in HY stood at 18.3% in US, versus 23.6% in EM following
market repricing. Our argument here remains that this differential should be
substantially wider (more ... EM names trading distressed vs US), given that EM
HY market has twice as much weight in commodity names relative to US.
Furthermore, our GDP-weighted basket of EM currencies ... recent days, losing 2% since Aug 21, and bringing the cumulative devaluation
in EM to 41% since a year ago. This factor is important in two respects: (a) it
points
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01097815.pdf
EFTA01405764Set 10
2015-09-04147p21,516w
proportion
of distressed issuers in HY stood at 18.3% in US, versus 23.6% in EM
following
market repricing. Our argument here remains that this differential should be
EFTA01405823
substantially wider ... more EM names trading distressed vs US), given that EM
HY market has twice as much weight in commodity names relative to US.
Furthermore, our GDP-weighted basket of EM ... recent days, losing 2% since Aug 21, and bringing the cumulative devaluation
in EM to 41% since a year ago. This factor is important in two respects: (a)
it
points
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01405764.pdf