EFTA01459628Set 10
2016-02-081p485w
February 2016
US Equity Insights
4Q EPS Tracker ("In defense of Banks," starts on page 9)
317 S&P 500 companies comprising 79% of S&P earnings have reported ... companies beat on EPS with a weighted average beat of 1.3% (2.1% ex Energy, 3.6%
ex Energy & Fin). 33% of companies beat on sales with a weighted average miss ... Energy, -0.6% ex Energy & Fin).
Banks reported decent EPS growth on cost cuts and less litigation, but slow revenue
growth. Higher credit costs and weaker capital markets revenue will
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01459628.pdf
EFTA01100347Set 9
2014-07-2918p7,458w
demand and reduced Jermaine Brown
operating rates. With valuation a compelling 10.6x '15 EPS vs 14.8x for Dow Research Associate
and Q2 evidencing a more predictable and resilient ... guidance of $6.70-$7.00 reaffirmed (cons: $6.93) jermaine-r.brown@db.com
Eastman reported Q2 EPS of $1.92, up 7%, and $0.08 or 4% above consensus.
An unplanned outage at Eastman's Kingsport plant ... Intermediates {SFI),), EBIT by $10MM (evenly divided
between Advanced Matis, Fibers and SFI) and EPS by $0.05. Prior to the los
outage, consensus was $1.88. A lower than expected
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01100347.pdf
EFTA01459072Set 10
2015-11-201p496w
November 2015
US Equity Insights
S&P intrinsic valuation model
An EPS discoun r1 odei
Our intrinsic valuation model combines our detailed S&P EPS analysis with our intrinsic ... fair
that we could intrinsically value the S&P 500 based upon our EPS estimates. Our EPS
intrinsic value model
discount model is consistent with the principles underlying a dividend ... model
(DDM) or a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, but the direct input is EPS and not DPS.
Our full valuation model, shown on page 21, can be daunting upon
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01459072.pdf
EFTA01462482Set 10
2014-02-0460p8,663w
pricing (conservative).
Updated estimates: modest adjustments to reflect HITECH, slower ACA ramp
2014 EBITDA / EPS are $7.05B / $3.92 from $7.145B / $4.17. We come out
above guidance ... EBITDA / $3.45-$3.75 EPS ) due to underlying
growth and ACA. Our model now reflects higher S/O, slightly lower HITECH
benefit, slightly lower ACA ramp but slightly better rate/mix.
Valuation ... PPACA, payer mix changes, Medicare/Medicaid cuts.
Forecasts And Ratios
Year End Dec 31
FY EPS (USD)
EV/EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data
1 Includes the impact
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01462482.pdf
EFTA00390701Set 9
2013-05-088p2,645w
keep down operating costs & strong guidance (trading +8%)
• McKesson net off 50% but eps beat & 2014 eps view midpt above estimates (trading +1.4%)
EFTA00390701
• Mondelez eps beat (profit ... spinoff impacts) but raised yr eps view (CLSA downgrades)
• TripAdvisor O1 sales & eps beat forecasts & reaffirms year revenue growth (trading -1.4%)
• Whole Foods beat & raised as SSS trends accelerated (announced ... light, T-Mobile USA ok (trading +3.9%)
• Brenntag O1 net, EBITDA, rev, income miss, EPS below, well positioned to deal with challenges (trading -4.3%)
• Lanxess Q1 revs inline, EBITDA
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00390701.pdf
EFTA02114020Set 10
2014-02-198p2,006w
holder Lavazza enters new stock purchase pact to keep % ownership (trading
+3.4%)
• Analog Devices eps inline, guides better, boosts div and increases buyback by $16 (trading +1.7%)
• CF industries ... eps beat on better sales, reaffirms forecast and boosts dividend (trading +0.6%)
• Flowserve reaffirms forecast for 2014, reports better revs and raises dividend (trading -0.2%)
• Panera Bread Q4 eps beats ... guides below consensus, company-owned sss + 1.7% (trading -
3%)
• Flour Corp Q4 eps beat but revenues miss, year-end backlog drops 8.6% (trading +0.6%)
• Potbelly eps beats estimates and sees
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA02114020.pdf
EFTA01447637Set 10
2014-07-291p762w
destocking, lower demand and reduced
operating rates. With valuation a compelling 10.6x '15 EPS vs 14.8x for Dow Research Associate
and Q2 evidencing a more predictable and resilient ... guidance of 56.70-37.00 rear firmed (cons. 36 931
Eastman reported Q2 EPS of $1.92, up 7%, and $0.08 or 4% above consensus.
An unplanned outage at Eastman's Kingsport ... EBIT by S10MM (evenly divided
between Advanced Mat'ls, Fibers and SFI) and EPS by $0.05. Prior to the 105
outage, consensus was $1.88. A lower than expected tax rate
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01447637.pdf
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc
IFigure 6: S&P 2016 EPS scenarios C
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A continued walk recession, yet 2%. US 'mirth with ... Global recession and flat US GDP
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Sales% Profits % 2015 2016 y/y 2016 EPS 2015 2016 yh 2016885 2015 2016 y/y 1016 EPS 2°15 2016 sit 1016 EPS ... EPS
Cons Onc 27% 25% 1153 128 10.8% 14.39 1155 125 82% 14.05 115.5 125 82% 14.05 115.5 122 56% 13.72 115.5 110 -4.8% 12.37 C ,,,
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https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01459059.pdf