EFTA01113316Set 9
2010-02-0241p11,071w
Ambiguity, the Certainty Illusion, and Gigerenzer's
Natural Frequency Approach to Reasoning with
Inverse Probabilities
John Fountains and Philip Gtmbyl
2 February 2010
Version: 06 April 2010
Abstract
People have ... conditional probabilities. Putting the data in terms of natural frequencies as
promoted by Gigerenzer (2002) makes it easier for people to reason in situations of
uncertainty. Unfortunately, it invokes ... Economics Universit of Canterbu .
"Corresponding Author: ph: fax:
EFTA01113316
Ambiguity, the Certainty Illusion, and Gigerenzer's
Natural Frequency Approach to Reasoning with Inverse
Probabilities
Abstract
People have difficulty reasoning with
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01113316.pdf
EFTA02444385Set 11
7p1,891w
doctors estimated this probability to be between 70% and 80%.
Gigerenzer and Hoffrage (1995) focused on another aspect of the problem: the
representation of uncertainty. In Eddy's task, quantitative ... information was given in
probabilities. Gigerenzer and Hoffrage presented Eddy's problem to medical doctors
replacing probabilities with a different representation of uncertainty, namely natural
frequencies.
In their formulation ... oriented, i.e., only information that is relevant for the task appears in
the tree. Gigerenzer and Hoffrage (1995) also used a tree (see Figure 1). Their tree
contains the information
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2011/EFTA02444385.pdf
EFTA02455796Set 11
2016-07-292p160w
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2016 7:45 PM
To: John Brockman
Subject: Re: Gerd Gigerenzer
Thanks how are you feeling
On Friday, 29 Ju=y 2016, John Brockman rote:
here ... Gerd Gigerenzer
Max Planck Institute for Huma= Development in Berlin
https://www.edge=org/memberbio/gerd_gigerenzer <https:/=www.edge.org/memberbio/gerd_gigerenzer>
https://ww=.edge.org/conversation/smart-heuristics-gerd-gigerenzer
<https://www.edge.org/=onversation/smart-heuristics-gerd-gigerenzer>
=/div>
JB
917.744-8920 mobile
</=iv>
please
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2011/EFTA02455796.pdf
EFTA00698645Set 9
2014-11-187p2,362w
auss awrence
Smolin Lee , Leonard Susskind
, Turok Neil " , Zeilinger Anton
, Se'nowski Terrence < Gigerenzer Gerd
, Diamond Jared < e~ Davies Paul
Guth Alan Linde Andrei
Rodney Brooks <
Subject: The Reality Club ... George Dyson, Brian Eno, Jeffrey Epstein, Tony Fadell, Bill
GateDavid Gelemter, Niel Gershenfeld, Gerd Gigerenzer, Anthony Grayling, Brian Greene, Alan Guth, Jonathan
Haidt, Sam Harris, Virginia Heffernan, Danny Hillis, Jennifer
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00698645.pdf
EFTA01804397Set 10
2014-11-152p442w
Grayling
A.C.; Krauss Lawrence; Smolin Lee; Leonard Susskind; Turok Neil; Zeilinger Anton;
Sejnowski Terrence; Gigerenzer Gerd; Diamond Jared; Davies Paul; Guth Alan; Linde
Andrei; Rodney Brooks
Subject: Edge Reality Conversation ... George Dyson, Brian Eno, =effrey Epstein, Tony Fadell, Bill GateDavid Gelernter, Niel
=ershenfeld, Gerd Gigerenzer, Anthony Grayling, Brian Greene, Alan Guth, =onathan Haidt, Sam Harris, Danny Hillis,
Jennifer Jacquet, Seth
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01804397.pdf
EFTA01002615Set 9
2017-09-291p246w
hreat
On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 11:30 AM, Bamaby Marsh .ce wrote:
gigerenzer interested but busy now (today is his retirement day), we are looking for a time
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01002615.pdf