EFTA01145285Set 9
5p3,074w
February
manufacturing surveys from the emerging markets, our best guess is for a global PMI index consistent
with decent, 3.5% global GDP growth in the first quarter (left chart ... improvement in the global PMI
from prior months is already showing up in the hard data. Global car sales, for example, have picked up
sharply in recent months (right chart
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01145285.pdf
EFTA01171349Set 9
8p5,883w
chal- 65 150
lenge Euro area firms with cross-border asset-liability mismatches. 4- Global PMI
60
• We keep a tactical short in 30yr Treasuries, ahead of long end supply ... Defensive trading rule, which goes UW Cyclicals when the monthly
change in the global PMI is negative and vice versa, points to an OW in
Cyclical sectors currently
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01171349.pdf
EFTA01070771Set 9
2012-09-255p4,003w
true,
as shown in the first chart. Normally, equity rallies take place when the global PMI manufacturing survey is either above 50
(denoting an expansion), or at least rising ... MSCI World Equity Index and Global PMI thereafter
Source: Bloomberg. A PhIl above/below 50 usually denotes an expansion/contraction
The catalyst for this year's rally: central banks will expand base
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01070771.pdf
EFTA01169776Set 9
8p5,895w
local bonds have stabilised in the past two weeks, in spite of heavy Global PMI against Cyclicals vs Non cyclicals
outflows from EM bond funds. Nonetheless, the risk ... rebound in global manufacturing has yet to materialize. Our 98 01 04 07 10
Global PMI downshifted fora seventh straight month inSeptember (released Scum. JP. Mccgan ... Defensive trading rule, which goes short Cyclicals
when the monthly change in the global PMI is negative and vice versa, points
to an underweight in Cyclical sectors.
• The high beta
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01169776.pdf
EFTA00954849Set 9
2013-02-255p2,775w
February manufacturing surveys from the emerging markets, our best guess is for a global PMI
index consistent with decent, 3.5% global GDP growth in the first quarter (left chart ... improvement in the global PMI
from prior months is already showing up in the hard data. Global car sales, for example, have picked up sharply in recent
months (right chart
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00954849.pdf