EFTA01097815Set 9
2015-09-0447p20,445w
view, is that one in September will lead to a December pricing
and additional hikes in 2016, suggesting 2s could easily trade to 1 1/4
percent. This may well ... Sell 1X2 payer spreads at the Vulnerable to rally below
The repricing of Fed hikes could begin in Q2 with
Option short end: Sell $100mn 6M3Y the breakevens, with ... payers at zero net cost downside.
Sell $100mn 6M10Y straddles With expectations of Fed hikes, volatility should
Option Unilateral spike in
vs. buy $300mn 6M3Y straddles move to the front
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01097815.pdf
EFTA01426568Set 10
5p1,463w
environmental and cultural education center with excursions led by expert
naturalists. You can hike through the Hawaiian
rainforest, snorkel among Maui's beautiful coral reefs and participate in
underwater photography ... will provide you with the confidence for
your next snorkeling adventure on Maui.
COASTAL HIKE & TIDE POOL
EXPLORATION
12:00pm-2:30pm, Adults $99.95 / Children $89.95
Adventure the Kapalua Coastal ... Trail with our naturalists
as we hike 1.7 miles along beautiful bays, ancient lava
fields and search for Humpbacks Whales just offshore.
During our hike we will learn the rich
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01426568.pdf
EFTA01474964Set 10
2015-10-02168p16,614w
Monday for confirmation, but we
now think the Fed is unlikely to hike in 2015. This reduces upside for
stocks. It
means rates, currency, commodity and PE uncertainty continues ... equity base) still being intact. But we acknowledge that our
timing on Fed hikes has been wrong and this and other uncertainties will
linger
longer. We stick with ... election cycle?
Fed delays: Less S&P upside for
2015
Stocks will leave hike decision to
Fed but dollar likely climbs either
way
First back to school assignment:
Stress test
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01474964.pdf
EFTA01089722Set 9
2012-06-2944p20,625w
also prefer the Canadian dollar, given its relatively good growth dynamics, a
possible rate hike, and relatively high short rates.
UBS 3
Please see important disclaimer and disclosures ... sustainable dividends offer an attractive income stream in a against future interest rate hikes and many face increasing credit risk. We
low yield world. Historically, dividends have made a substantial ... likely let unemployment benefits and the payroll tax cut expire,
but postpone income tax hikes and sequestration spending.
Source: Thomson Datastream, UBS OO, as of 20 June 2012
$ Positive scenario
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01089722.pdf
EFTA01097864Set 9
2015-02-0615p7,276w
sizeable spending cut after Congress passes the 2015 budget,
we think that additional tax hikes would be necessary to guarantee the 1.2%
target. Raising more taxes could aggravate the recession ... raising market volatility.
The correction of administered prices (especially of electricity) and the hike in
fuel taxes have increased the pressure on inflation, prompting us to raise our
2015 IPCA ... roughly 30bps to the IPCA consumer price index).
A more surprising move was the hike in the IOF tax on consumer loans to 3.0%
from 1.5%, which the government expects
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01097864.pdf
EFTA01377050Set 10
2016-08-191p720w
Chief Investment Strategist — WM Americas
n, Equities
The timing of the next Fed rate hike continues to be an elusive debate for
investors. Earlier this week, there were a number ... sounded more hawkish as he acknowledged that he
would not rule out two rate hikes this year (leaving a September rate hike on
the table) and that markets ... complacent with respect to future rate
hikes. This potential complacency has been seen as equity markets continue to
grind to all time highs, volatility remains non-existent and recent weakness
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01377050.pdf
EFTA01476303Set 10
2015-11-20252p27,629w
firms. However, a tighter than expected labor
market
could lead to more Fed hikes than expected and thus EPS risks via dollar,
oil or PE
risk via credit market ... yield jump. Fed hikes are a small boost to
S&P EPS.
5% delineates healthy from unhealthy S&P EPS growth and supports an 18 PE
Our 1 year target ... growth with low credit costs
Tight US labor mkt, Fed hikes >1% in 2016 Global recession and flat US GDP
y/y 2016 EPS
2015
115.5
85.5
EFTA01476314
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01476303.pdf
EFTA01190918Set 9
2015-09-103p628w
Attachments: DB_FIWklyUS_2015-09-04_0900b8c08a22181c.pdf
Inline-Images: image005.png; image008.png; image009.png; image010.jpg
Classification: Confidential
Regardless of FOMC hiking next week, we have already observed a decrease in global central bank liquidity. We have noticed ... 5sl0s also comes down (curve flattens) during hikes. Therefore this trade could benefit in the event of either a Fed hike,
or the event of no hike and a decrease ... central bank liquidity
10.000-
2/4/94 Hike 6/3/99 Hike 6i30/04 Hike
1.20
8.000 1.00
6.000
4.000- 0.40
0.20
2.000 ■ toivw iusono • vssio (RI)
FDTPOCC, trigs (LI)
0.00
ILI25
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01190918.pdf
EFTA01068222Set 9
2016-05-1117p2,023w
Sender: Self (..I' kune ail.com
Participants: ( ), Self (jeeitunes®gmail.com )
you should spend some time hiking on st john, there are some great trails . then yes i will ... Sender: Self ('eeit.ines ail.com
Participants: ( ), Self (jeeitunes®gmail.com )
you can also hike the road trails on great st james.
iMessage
[2] 2016-05-11 21:08:00 (UTC)
Sender: Self ... csje tunes il.com )
Participants: ( ), Self ( e:jeeitunes@gmail.com )
you can also hike the road trails on great st james.
iMessage
[1][8] 2016-05-1121:08:00 (UTC)
Sender: Self ( jeeitunes
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01068222.pdf
EFTA01437180Set 10
2017-10-2710p2,232w
more monumental,
the BOE on Thursday is being widely anticipated as a 25 bps hike (21 bps
priced in currently). The vote count will be important, with ... vote likely spurring GBP strength as it will be seen that a rate hiking
cycle is imminent. A 6-3 vote or even 5-4 vote and any rhetoric from ... lows) Resistance: 0.8860, .8940 (DTL)
Big week with the BOE meeting this Thursday. A hike is well priced at
around .85% but the more interesting fact is that not much
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01437180.pdf