Simplifying Bayesian Inference
Stefan KrauB, Laura Martignon & Ulrich Hoffrage
Max Planck Institute For Human Development
Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin-Dahlem
Probability theory can be used to model inference under uncertainty ... doctors estimated this probability to be between 70% and 80%.
Gigerenzer and Hoffrage (1995) focused on another aspect of the problem: the
representation of uncertainty. In Eddy's task, quantitative ... information was given in
probabilities. Gigerenzer and Hoffrage presented Eddy's problem to medical doctors
replacing probabilities with a different representation of uncertainty, namely natural
frequencies.
In their formulation