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growth is most strongly correlated with the successful (i.e. timely) development of the massive Johan Sverdrup field which was recently sanctioned in February. We estimate North Sea crude production ... through 2016 before declining to 2.2 MMb/d in 2019 w/ recovery in 2020 as Johan Sverdrup is brought on-line. Primary Risks In our view, the impact of project delays ... decline in the North Sea until the end of the decade/ramp of the massive Johan Sverdrup field (+300 Mb/d of production growth in 2020). The chief risk to North