EFTA01089722Set 9
2012-06-2944p20,625w
Corporate results Key corporate announcement dates that could move the market: 5 July, Barry — MSCI Switzerland realeed Pit — NISCIWorid realeed ME
Callebaut; 12 July, Partners Group; 16 July, K0hne+Nagel ... document.
EFTA01089740
Emerging market equities Preference: overweight
Recommendations
1
MSCI EM (27 June): 913 (last month: 907)
UBS View MSCI EM 6-month target: 1,000 Tactical (6 months)
• Currency ... above, in our base case, we see scope for some multiple expansion for the MSCI EM Index, • Structural factors (e.g. stronger fiscal
from the current 10.3x realized price
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01089722.pdf
EFTA01475132Set 10
2015-09-2151p11,994w
might not get back the
amount originally invested at any point in time.
MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index3
MSCI EM Latin America Index3
Germany ... Eurozone (EURO STOXX 50 Index)
Germany (DAX)1
United Kingdom (FTSE 100 Index)
Japan (MSCI Japan Index)
MSCI Emerging Markets Index3
Equity markets (index value in points)
Current ... roughly
100%.1
In mid-2010, the favorites changed. As measured by the MSCI
Emerging Markets Index, EM investors could, at best, preserve
their capital employed. Recent market adjustments have
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01475132.pdf
EFTA01170770Set 9
8p5,884w
move BRICs to an over- Seamus Mac Gorain
weight within EM, i.e long MSCI BRICs vs MSCI EM.
• Credit — All-time record US HY inflows signal further spread narrowing.
Matthew ... think so and remain long risk. Much has been written about how
MSCI AC Work' O
the EU Summit Statement is full of vague promises and short of concrete MSCI ... Europe' O
details, while glossing over still large disagreements between major MSCI EM O
stakeholders. We do not disagree (see Barr and Mai, EU sununit leaves plenty Toper' I
ofgaps
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01170770.pdf
EFTA00598496Set 9
2013-01-048p6,246w
with the new EMBIG
Washington compromise or Fed hawkishness more in the camp of MSCI EM*
shorter-term tactical games. EM S Corp.
MSCI AC Work!
• Starting in Japan ... strong convictions, incentives, and MSCI Europe
we believe the ability to push true fiscal stimulus financed by massive
US Hip Yield
QE. Expectations of Japanese reflation have driven down ... months of difficult negotiations even, as we expect an ultimately last minute 2013E 2012
MSCI EM 15.0 17.4
deal to prevent default and shutting down of the government.
EM Local
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00598496.pdf
EFTA01089619Set 9
2013-04-2546p24,794w
important disclaimer and disclosures at the end of the document
EFTA01089638
Emerging market equities
MSCI EM (24 April): 1018 (last publication: 1,068) Recommendations
Preference: neutral 1
UBS view MSCI ... year under-owned and out of
• We see the PIE multiple of the MSCI EM Index close to current levels at around 11.5x trailing (i.e. realized) earnings favor (like ... some rotation out
of Turkey after a strong run, and valuations
71 Positive scenario MSCI EM (six-month target): 1,225 have become more demanding.
• The outlook for the global
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01089619.pdf
EFTA01089574Set 9
2013-02-2145p23,567w
Manufacturing PMI index kb-O? Fol3.08 Feb09 Fab.10 Fab.11 Fand2 Fah-13
— SMI moltedP4 — MSCI Wald • root:SPA
Corporate news Key corporate announcement dates: 22 Feb, Straumann; 26 Feb, Georg ... document.
EFTA01089593
Emerging market equities Preference: overweight
Recommendations
1
MSCI EM (20 Feb.): 1,068 (last publication: 1,077)
UBS view MSCI EM (sIx-month target): 1,120 Tactical ... favor
• In our base case, we see the PIE multiple of the MSCI EM Index staying at about 12x trailing (i.e. realized) earnings (like Russia and Brazil).
• Shorter-term
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01089574.pdf
EFTA01089678Set 9
2012-10-2544p21,521w
important disclaimer and disclosures at the end of the document.
EFTA01089696
Emerging market equities
MSCI EM (24 Oct.): 995 (last publication: 990)
Preference: overweight
Recommendations
1
UBS View MSCI ... Brazil and South
• In our base case, we see the P/E multiple of the MSCI EM Index staying around the current level of 11x Korea, and a stabilization ... bonds of compliant
Eurozone governments has lessened the
71 Positive scenario MSCI EM (6-month target): 1,325 tail risks for the smaller European
• The outlook for the global economy
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01089678.pdf