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Corpus: 1990-03-17 – 2025-12-01

May 2015

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EFTA01411427Set 10

2015-05-31202p28,772w

through 2017, 2) we still see a call on US onshore growth of 500 Mb/d in 2017 with 2H16 ramp 3) we likely need $65-$70/bbl oil to incentivize ... through 2017, 2) we still see a call on US onshore growth of 500 Mb/d in 2017 with 2H16 ramp 3) we likely need $65-$70/bbl oil to incentivize ... CrudeGrowth (mboe/d) Implied Call on Onshore Growth (YoY, Mb/d) Call on US Onshore CrudeGrowth (mboe/d) Implied Call on Onshore Growth (YoY, Mb/d) EFTA01411532 31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01411427.pdf

EFTA01367352Set 10

2015-05-311p610w

September). While Bijan Zanganeh's (Iranian oil minister) promise of output levels of 3.8 Mb/d within 6 months of the deal (implying an increase in exports of -1 Mb/d ... abnormal?). Ubya devoid of conflict? While many point to 2012 production of nearly -1400 Mb/d as a starting point for quantifying a potential 'blue sky' outlook for Libya production ... resulted in a cut to the lEA estimated sustainable crude production to only 500 Mb/d for 2015. The lEA anticipates a gradual capacity creep with levels expected to reach

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367352.pdf

EFTA01761884Set 10

expect. =OD Brent Supply • = We project 2013 =on-OPEC production growth will be 1.2mb/d (2%), driven largely by North =merican contributions from US and Canadian oil sands production. =span ... sans-=erif"'>• =0AOur projection for OPEC pr=duction is expected to decline from 31.3mb/d in 2012 to 30.9 mb/d in 2=13. The projections include a more cautious view ... reappraisal of the timing around infrastructure reconstruction lowers Ira=i growth to just 0.2 mb/d yoy, with most project start-ups now con=entrated in the 2nd half

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01761884.pdf

EFTA02031536Set 10

expect. Brent Supply We project 2013 non-OPEC production growth will be 1.2mb/d (2%), driven largely by North American contributions from US and Canadian oil sands production. Our projection ... OPEC production is expected to decline from 31.3mb/d in 2012 to 30.9 mb/d in 2013. The projections include a more cautious view for Libya, where declining supplies ... reappraisal of the timing around infrastructure reconstruction lowers Iraqi growth to just 0.2 mb/d yoy, with most project start-ups now concentrated in the 2' half of 2013. Lastly, Saudi

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA02031536.pdf

EFTA01367320Set 10

2015-05-311p806w

still see a call hey Change,' on US onshore growth of 500 Mb/d in 2017 with 2H16 ramp 3) we likely need $65-$70/bbl oil to incentivize and support this ... MUR.N 51.00 to estimate annual, major project-driven growth barrels of 1380 Mb/d, vs. the 46.03(USD) OXY.N 81.00 to Hold to Buy historical rate of 970 Mb/d between ... supporting annual Non-OPEC 90.001USD) supply growth of 150-200 Mb/d through 2017. XOM.N 91.00 to But, there is a call on US onshore oil growth - the new swing

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367320.pdf

EFTA01367345Set 10

2015-05-311p428w

Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Incentivizing the US producer As mentioned previously, the 500 Mb/d call on US onshore growth in 2017 will begin to ramp ... estimate that as early as late 2016 -350 Mb/d of US onshore crude production will be needed vs. 1016 production levels. Assuming the need for an incremental 350 Mb/d ... anticipate that 2016 crude production growth in the Lower 48 would be down 200 Mb/d YoY. In order to incentivize a resumption in drilling activity sufficient to generate this level

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367345.pdf

EFTA01367353Set 10

2015-05-311p391w

part of 2014 from repeated ISIS attacks, pipeline exports from Northern Iraq averaged -185 Mb/d in 2014. Increased production from the Tawke and Taq Tact fields in Kurdistan amid ... built infrastructure, the KRG has announced a targeted pipeline export capacity/volumes of 800 Mb/d. However with current Northern Iraq export levels in excess of 600 Mb/d upside to Iraq production ... sustained our call on US onshore crude growth would be reduced by over 400 Mb/d. b) Saudi Production Outlook? Who knows...but our outlook looks reasonable assuming Saudi market share

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367353.pdf

EFTA01367360Set 10

2015-05-311p238w

combination of lower oil price and political/corporate scandal, Brazil still represents nearly 400 Mb/d of production growth by 2017 (vs. 2014). See outlook and risks below. IFigute 72: Brazil Production ... Outlook, 2014-2020e (Mb/d) !Figure 7T Production by type (area chart o€ onshore vs. !shallow vs. deepwater (Mb/d ... growth outlook by project !Figure 75: 2017 Production Swing (Beer vs. Bull) of status (Mb/d) I-300 Mb/d 4000 2900 I 4000 -I fete

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367360.pdf

EFTA01367327Set 10

2015-05-311p344w

significant expansions) show that ex-US onshore Non-OPEC averaged annual growth of 970 Mb/d from 2004-2013, including only 700 Mb/d in 2012 and 2013. However, beginning ... after multiple years of elevated investment, incremental project-driven growth was - 1050 Mb/d, rising to an expected 1600 Mb/d in 2015, and remaining at an elevated 1275 Mb/d per year

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367327.pdf

EFTA01367323Set 10

2015-05-311p299w

growth, although not likely until 2H 2016 culminating in a 2017 call of -500 Mb/d. We decompose the call into two parts: • We estimate that -260 Mb/d of incremental demand ... anticipate a trough in US production in 1Q16 and estimate a gap of -270 Mb/d vs 2O15 production that will need to narrowed toward an estimated call on US onshore ... accelerate through 2017 and for the call on YoY crude growth to nearly 700 Mb/d in 2018 and to surpass 1,000 Mb/d in 2019/2020 as Non-OPEC production growth

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367323.pdf

EFTA01367322Set 10

2015-05-311p404w

Between 2015 and 2017, we estimate annual, major project-driven growth barrels of 1380 Mb/d, vs. the historical rate of 970 Mb/d between 2004- 2013, supporting annual Non-OPEC supply ... growth of 500 Mb/d through 2017. Leading drivers: US GoM, Brazil, Canada, and slower declines on recent redevelopment projects in the North Sea. While project delays or poor performance could ... Driving this is a significant increase in major project growth barrels, with nearly 380 Mb/d expected online between 2015-2017, vs. an average of 35 Mb/d of annual, projected driven

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367322.pdf

EFTA01367325Set 10

2015-05-311p633w

months): Iran (a potential reduction in the call on US growth by -450 Mb/d) and Iraq (increased export volumes out of Kurdistan an incremental -400 Mb/d over 2014 levels presently ... forward Saudi production results in a call on US onshore growth of -500 Mb/d through 2018 and increasing to 700 Mb/d by 2019. Assuming current Saudi market share levels

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367325.pdf

EFTA01367361Set 10

2015-05-311p504w

currently in operation and 7 additional FPSOs will be required for development (150 Mb/d of capacity each), 4 of which are replicant FPSOs being constructed in Brazil. Pi Unary Risks ... underlying decline above our 8%/yr base case would reduce 2017 production by 40 Mb/d. 2. Delays to FPSO start-ups. We see a high likelihood of material delays ... average 2-year delay in targeted first oil. We model an estimated -225 Mb/d of incremental production through 2017 from the arrival of 4 FPSOs through (2 in each

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367361.pdf

EFTA01367343Set 10

2015-05-311p205w

Deaths Bank KOS IMICASIS 1FA The call on US crude production growth (-500 Mb/d) is decomposed as follows: • We estimate that -260 Mb/d of incremental demand is needed beyond peak ... anticipate a trough in US production in 1Q16 and estimate a gap of -270 Mb/d vs 2Q15 production that will need to narrowed toward an estimated call on US onshore ... Figure 43: We estimate the call on annual US onshore crude growth at -600 Mb/d in 2017 and increasing to -1tv1Mbid by 2019/2020 1200 1045 1031 1000 Annual Chango

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367343.pdf

EFTA01367342Set 10

2015-05-311p349w

Meat Path To lionnanned US Onshore Crude Supply Growth.. _With -Estirnmed Growth St Mb/d Ansa In Sultnequent Phone >< > I f i fi • In =K. J, -N&ankh gntlak ... producers starting late 2016 toward a 2017 call on US onshore growth of -500 Mb/d rapidly escalating toward late 2017/early 2018. We estimate the YoY demand for US onshore production ... increase by -700 Mb/d in 2018 prior and to average over 1MMb/d in 2019 and 2020 as non-OPEC major project growth tapers off on anticipated spending reductions over

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367342.pdf

EFTA01097655Set 9

2015-01-13160p88,327w

that includes lower Libyan production. Figure 2: Global Demand Growth Expectations Over Time mb/d ... falls? Cell on OPEC 309 29.5 30.3 28.9 292 -1.4 -0.6 -0.3 -1.4 1.4mb/d reduction needed vs Nov-14 &wet De teary Sanwa, Looking at this simplified supply ... more consistent with demand expectations? (i.e. reduce US YoY supply growth to 500-600 Mb/d)." They estimate "that at minimum, the industry would need to drop —160+ horizontal rigs from

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01097655.pdf

EFTA01367379Set 10

2015-05-311p372w

forecasted decline rate for Russia results in a significant -300 Mb/d adjustment to our 2017 call on US onshore growth. Figure 1207 Russia Production Outlook, 2014-2020e Figure ... outlook by project Figure 123. 201 7 Production Swing (Bear vs. Bull) of status (Mb/d) -600 Mb/d 11000 11500 10500 11030 10111 IOZO

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367379.pdf

EFTA01459556Set 10

swift recovery, and for good reasons. Oil production currently exceeds consumption by about 1.5mb/d. Supply outside OPEC is expected to shrink by about 0.7mb/d in 2016, mainly ... falling U.S. production. Add in an expected rise in consumption of about 1.2mb/d, mainly in emerging markets, and you can see how inventories will eventually begin to fall

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01459556.pdf

EFTA01367372Set 10

2015-05-311p273w

Outlook. 2014-2020e Figure 102: Production by type (area chart of onshore vs. (Mb/d) !shallow vs. deepwater (Mbrd ... outlook by project [Figure 104: 2017 Production Swing (Bear vs. Bull) of -25 status (Mb/d) iMb/d

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367372.pdf

EFTA01367344Set 10

2015-05-311p301w

demand growth assumptions are based on lEA estimates and compare to -650 Mb/d of demand growth in 2014. OPEC production (ex Angola) is assumed flat to 2014 levels ... rosier' than would otherwise be implied from recent production levels (-31.6 MMb/d or +1100 Mb/d higher than our assumed base case vs. May 2015 levels) or from a qualitative weighting

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367344.pdf

Page 1

Results by Dataset43 total

Set 9

1

Set 10

41

Set 11

1