EFTA00287327Set 9
20p8,168w
Project Scientific Workshop
ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY Challenges of Artificial Intelligence:
Envisioning and Addressing Adverse Outcomes
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ADVERSE OUTCOMES & TEAMS
1) FINANCIAL MARKETS
A!, Trading Systems, and Market Manipulation
Chair ... Project Scientific Workshop
ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY Challenges of Artificial Intelligence:
Envisioning and Addressing Adverse Outcomes
1) FINANCIAL MARKETS
Al, Trading Systems, and Market Manipulation
(Incorporating contributions by Michael Wellman ... thwarting of such attempts?
POTENTIAL GOALS
Identify key challenges ahead, including very costly outcomes. Identify key directions with best
practices, mechanism design, monitoring and regulatory activity to help to thwart
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00287327.pdf
EFTA01146514Set 9
54p20,630w
similar effect sizes as undergraduates in tasks examining framing effects, the conjunction fallacy,
and outcome bias7. The present studies add another piece of evidence for the validity of
experiments ... would have the chance to earn up to an
additional $1.00 based on the outcome of the experiment. After accepting the task, subjects were
redirected to website where they participated ... cognitive approaches (intuitive vs. reflective) and where that approach
lead to an outcome that was either negative or positive. The instructions for each of the resulting
4 conditions are listed
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01146514.pdf
EFTA01100261Set 9
2016-02-2939p20,086w
CRISPR has been used in many labs across many
academic institutions with strickingly similar outcomes, suggesting that many
of the key technical hurdles in small systems are understood. We believe ... course of the next 1-2
investment decision.
years. While we expect the outcome is likely to be one which requires both For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
sides ... limiting potential upside to EDIT in the near-term.
Further, while we expect the outcome of the IP dispute to be some sort of cross
licensing agreement similar to what
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01100261.pdf
EFTA00295552Set 9
2019-03-3110p3,556w
given bet. First, one could suffer a loss due to a bad outcome
from a known or properly assessed distribution of outcomes. Call this a Type 1 loss. Second ... could suffer a loss arising from improperly assessing the distribution of outcomes in the
first place. Call this a Type 2 loss.
Typically, investors try to manage the risk ... conservative investment," they are usually referring to making
investments where the distribution of outcomes is such that the perceived probability and
severity of loss is low.
Clifford Sosin • 2
EFTA00295553
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00295552.pdf
EFTA01207364Set 9
2015-02-028p3,455w
Washington Center
forEquitable Growth
The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of
Improving U.S. Educational Outcomes
Robert Lynch: February 2, 2015
This study addresses a key challenge confronting the United States ... from
less advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds. In general, there are large gaps in the educational
outcomes among children from families with lower and higher socioeconomic status. These gaps
contribute to subsequent ... different scenarios that all have 2015 as their starting date, the analysis quantifies various
outcomes over the next 35 years—to 2050, when the pressure of supporting the retired baby
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01207364.pdf
EFTA00664234Set 9
2017-02-212p685w
From: Lawrence Krauss
To: "jeffrey E." <jeevacation@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd: Adverse Outcomes & Teams for Origins Project Scientific Workshop
Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 01:20:14 +0000
Attachments: AI_Workshopn Adverse ... Outcomes_&_Teams.pdf; Al_Workshop_-
Participant_List_022017.pdf
Inline-Images: DA866543-7401-4A5A-8E50-FD32E33A50EC.png; image001.png
fyi..
Lawrence M. Krauss
Director, The Origins Project at ASU
Co-Director, Cosmology Initiative
Foundation Professor
School of Earth & Space ... Origins Office (Cynthia): 480.965.0053
origIns.asu.edu I
Begin forwarded message:
From: Amelia Huggins
Subject: Adverse Outcomes Tean 1111
i: . rgiis Project Scientific Workshop
Date: February
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00664234.pdf
EFTA01195776Set 9
2014-01-088p6,422w
Science Altered Placebo and Drug Labeling Changes the Outcome of Episodic
Translational
Medicine Migraine Attacks
AAAS
Slavenka Kam-Hansen et al.
Sci Transl Med 6, 218ra5 (2014);
DOI: 10.1126/scitranslmed.3006175 ... trademark of AAAS.
EFTA01195776
RESEARCH ARTICLE
MIGRAINE
Altered Placebo and Drug Labeling Changes
the Outcome of Episodic Migraine Attacks
Slavenka Kam-Hansen,' Moshe Jakubowske John M. Kelley,14's Irving ... balanced placebo Study design
design" to test the hypothesis that, in acute migraine, clinical outcomes Participants were required to document one untreated attack at the
with both placebo and medication
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01195776.pdf
EFTA01074265Set 9
2014-04-1128p11,574w
pairwise games (21), zero-determinant strategies are surprisingly simple — they depend
on the outcome of the last round only. In contrast to most previous studies on repeated games,
however ... memory-
one strategies (4, 21, 34, 35); they only condition their behavior on the outcome of the previous
round. Memory-one strategies can be written as a vector ... threshold strategies neither enforce a linear relation between payoffs, nor do they
induce fair outcomes, suggesting that pTFT may be the more natural generalization of Tit-for-Tat
for large
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01074265.pdf
EFTA00603108Set 9
2010-08-247p6,174w
interaction with providers. The primary finding. [61 Given this situation, finding effective means of
outcome was IBS Global Improvement Scale (IBS-GIS). harnessing placebo responses in clinical practice without deception ... were performed by a researcher who was blind to
treatment assignment.
Assessment
Our primary outcome measure was the IBS Global Improve-
Intim Scale (IBS-GIS) which asks participants: "Compared ... which contains foe 100-point scales, that assess the severity of
our main outcome measure (IBS-GIS at 21-day endpoint), we
abdominal pain, the frequency of abdominal pain
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00603108.pdf
EFTA00305864Set 9
6p4,871w
nonsurgical conventional treatments (drugs for pain relief, epidural steroid injections, and physical therapy).
Clinical outcomes including visual analogue scale (VAS) scores ranging from 0 to 100 for low back pain ... clinical trial. After 5 weeks of or cauda equine syndrome;
treatment, the clinical outcomes of both groups will be evaluated (7) Those with spinal instability confirmed by lumbar spine ... conducted
during every treatment visit. Participants will lie on the table in
2.10. Outcomes
the prone position, and a practitioner will relax the back muscles
of the patient, while
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00305864.pdf
EFTA01155955Set 9
2010-08-247p6,174w
interaction with providers. The primary finding. [61 Given this situation, finding effective means of
outcome was IBS Global Improvement Scale (IBS-GIS). harnessing placebo responses in clinical practice without deception ... were performed by a researcher who was blind to
treatment assignment.
Assessment
Our primary outcome measure was the IBS Global Improve-
Intim Scale (IBS-GIS) which asks participants: "Compared ... which contains foe 100-point scales, that assess the severity of
our main outcome measure (IBS-GIS at 21-day endpoint), we
abdominal pain, the frequency of abdominal pain
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01155955.pdf
EFTA01087593Set 9
2012-12-3130p14,809w
peacebuilding measures can help prevent or lessen the impact of the above negative outcomes of armed
conflict on public health. At the same time, the position of medical professionals ... role of women in moving forward peace
processes and contributing to sustainable outcomes, as well as the relationship between conflict, peace,
and gender. While the UN Security Council Resolution ... marginalization, and limited
government legitimacy on already vulnerable economic and social contexts. Another key outcome of the
meeting was to identify the challenges that have the potential to hinder
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01087593.pdf
EFTA00084982Set 9
2021-11-0114p6,554w
overestimate how predictable or foreseeable an event is after being
informed about the outcome of an event. Simply put, knowledge of the outcome of the event, i.e.
Epstein pleaded guilty ... conviction behaviors obvious. Retrospective judgments about the
predictability or foreseeability of the outcome are systemically inflated or biased compared to
judgments made without information about the outcome. Hindsight bias refers ... tendency to
overestimate how predictable an event is after learning the outcome of the event (Fischhoff,
1975). For example, after a political election, people believe their pre-election estimates
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00084982.pdf
EFTA00084726Set 9
2021-11-0114p6,552w
overestimate how predictable or foreseeable an event is after being
informed about the outcome of an event. Simply put, knowledge of the outcome of the event, i.e.
Epstein pleaded guilty ... conviction behaviors obvious. Retrospective judgments about the
predictability or foreseeability of the outcome are systemically inflated or biased compared to
judgments made without information about the outcome. Hindsight bias refers ... tendency to
overestimate how predictable an event is after learning the outcome of the event (Fischhoff,
1975). For example, after a political election, people believe their pre-election estimates
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00084726.pdf