28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Deutsche Bank El
Australia (AUD
Figure 1: The basic balance remains positive. . . Figure 2: as net FDI inflows continue to climb
50 — 8 ame Balance 4Q sum 1 20 100 100
30 AUDNED (is) . 1 10 —Not FDI
75 75
FOICluelbws
10 —F011nlaws
50 50
-10
25 25
-30
0 0
-60
-26 -26
-70 060
-90 050 .50
Dec-90 Dec-94 Dec-98 Cec-a2 Ds-06 Dec-10 Jan.91 Jan.94.1sn.97 Jan. )8603 Jen.06 Jan.09 isn42
tauva CV, A Pwe.m.:t. vb.:ARA
Figure 3: Net Portfolio flows have been falling since Figure 4: Foreign investors have favored Australian
2010 debt (negative IIP a liability for AU)...
200 200 60 Wt (baby liP 1 10
Mot PortIolb —ifio oat HP
160 Portfblo Outfbw 160 —AUDIUSO frs1
SO 03
120 Portion) infbw 120
-150 090
so so
ao ao -260 080
-360 070
.40 9 .40
ASO 0m
-BO
-660 050
-120 -120
Ma -90 Mar-94 Mar-98 Mart2 Mara Mar.10
Jan-91 Jan-94 Jarh-97 Jan-CO Jan03 Jan-06 JanteJs612
544, Ce. 8& knesreelraliSA
Figure 5: and to a lesser extent equities... Figure 6: ...with relatively modest purchases by
Australians of foreign debt
Not Equly Lubin*, for AU 700 —lint Debt Labiate; lot AU
450 450
Wt AU Envoi Ho ttIngs by Foiwrim — No AU Qat itticIngs by Farr,
400 400 600 - 601
Iat Fossil EbullY Minns OYArlf.1 20 Nu Fain Otbt Hotlings by Sus
iv
350
300
k 350
300
ECO
600 • 501
4110 - 401
260 250
200 200 3C0 301
150 150 200 201
100 100
100 1C(
50 60
0 0 0 0
Mar-90 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-02 Mar-C6 Mar-10 Mar-90 Mar-94 Mar-98 Mar-al Mar-06 Mir-10
rfa nPerW" 4e, • A -,
:<ut• zefx Poliata,th eOACh
Page 26 Deutsche Bank AG/London
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