13 January 2015
HY Corporate Credit
Energy
Cimarex Energy
Relative Value
Cimarex (XEC) ranks relatively high within the peer group in context of facing
the current commodity downturn. Its strong financial profile creates a solid
platform; its sub lx net leverage level (0.6x at end of O3 14) is the lowest
amongst our peer group and liquidity is solid at $1.6 billion including $564
million of cash and undrawn revolver of 51.0 billion. The favorable financial
position is attributable to conservative management, which over the years has
focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet. During the O3 call,
management reiterated its focus on the balance sheet pointing out this would
be one of the major factors in determining the FY 15 capex program. Besides
a solid financial profile, XEC's asset quality and strong operational momentum
are both unparalleled. In its core Permian play (-55% of FY 14E Permian
capex budget), XEC has successfully drilled longer laterals with upsized fracs
providing solid upside to well returns. In a recent update, XEC noted that its
traditional Wolfcamp well (i.e. Culberson County, Wolfcamp D well) with a 10K
foot lateral would provide an impressive 89% before tax return at a price deck
$60/3.50. The returns on a normal 5K foot lateral are also highly competitive at
45% before tax (@$60/3.50) clearly explaining XEC's investment opportunities.
Wells results in its other core Permian zone -the 2nd and 3rd Bone Spring -
continue to yield solid results with 30-day average IPs rates (New Mexico wells
drilled in FY 14) improving 47% YoY. 2014 also saw XEC's renewed interest in
Cana where returns improved on applying upsized fracs; the new frac designs
allowed XEC to expand its addressable Cana acreage. Cana opportunities
were widened further with possible Meramec prospects - where the company
has drilled seven wells with the encouraging results from inception - 30-day IP
rate was 9.4 Mmcfe/d. Driven by the positive developments in Mid-Continent
(24% of FY 14 Capex), XEC plans to increase capex in this play for FY 15. The
quality Permian and Cana assets has allowed XEC to build a strong operating
momentum; the company has raised production guidance from 13% growth at
the start of year to 25% YoY now, and all this is happened with capex of $2
billion, which implies modest cash burn of -$350 million (majority funded by
asset sales, net of acquisitions). Moving ahead, the positive momentum will
play a crucial role in limiting cash burn given the bleak commodity outlook; we
see the company moving down towards a run-rate capex of $1.5 billion while
maintaining to-irk annual production growth. Despite a largely unhedged
profile, the company still be able to limit cash bum through FY 16 to under
$700 million, arid we expect net leverage to be less than 1.5x at PIE 16.
Page 50 Deutsche Sank Securities Inc.
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