Deutsche Bank Securities Inc
Figure 109: Commoday Price Scenario Analysis IP Energy Sensitivity Based on Bloomberg Cont;onsw;
FY ISE EBITDA(.5 NItlion) FY 15E FCF IS Million)
NV x 618 I Sin<It
$375 1225 1175 $3.25 1325 SLSS $4.23 5375 P.25 $2.75 13.25 1175 14.25 14.75
11.316 $1663 $1560 17177 11.574 11371 $1.540 on IMO) Min) (13401 1$300) 1307) 03001
1400 $1.606 $1.663 SI 693 $1.030 $1587 51.564 11.511 140.0 6371) 1374) 03701 03771 ($1701 ($302)
t540 $1,011 $1.003 $1.603 51.033 $1.000 51.517 11.104 1.50.0 3355) (1367) 03001 113001 6302) 1343) (3561
1600 51.824 31 021 $1 618 $1 616 11613 11.610 SI 607 M0.0 135 13401 13421 116131 1345) 1344) 0348/
$/$40 11407 $1634 SI 631 $1108 SIC. 11.873 SI WO $70.0 5322) 155231 11251 ($3261 ($321) 1171i 0331)
$11110 $1,060 Si oi 7 SI 444 SI 041 $1w $1.030 $1.433 260.0 1336/1 1304) 4306i i$3001 11311) 1317. i$310
$000 11 052 31 053 31044 31 053 SI 610 11.617 SI A05 M0.0 12911 11:545, 13301 13011 1305) 1$3047 ,1300,
FY ISE ESITDA (5 Million) FY 16E FCF IS Million'
44 r SSi
Sinnnn
$1.76 12215 12.75 6/26 5125 $425 14.26 $1.75 12.25 17.75 $3.25 $375 $1.25 /4.75
$300 51.150 51.178 11203 11.727 14.252 11277 11.301 130.0 $17 537 S17 1.77 $05 $110 3136
$400 11.212 $1236 11261 11215 11310 11.335 $1360 $40.0 St4 546 $106 1126 $146 3166 1185
1500 11.270 11.204 11 319 11344 51.304 $1.303 $1.417 $50.0 $710 $130 $355 $175 $05 $215 5234
0 $400 SI.= $1352 SI 377 $1432 $1420 $1.451 $1 476 $100 $105 5184 1204 1224 $244 $261 324
$700 $1.366 51.410 $1.435 31.403 $1.414 51.5 $1.534 srao $214 SPE $253 $273 1233 $313 $133
50 11.60 11.464 SI 480 $1513 $1.538 11.50 11.587 50 1250 1170 $209 $310 $339 1358 1378
$030 11.413 $7507 Si 532 $1567 $1 581 $56 $1.431 11.0 $256 ISIS $335 1355 $314 MI $414
FY ISE Nel Leeeea0e FY ISE Debt l'io.ed Reserves (5.MCf.`i
11.7$ 53.25 1225 $125 Sin 14.26 11.25 51.75 12.25 112.75 1325 $175 14.25 $4.75
1100 106 10. 30. 308 A* 305 108 1$1.0 $I5 $15 SI 6 $1
i 6 $15 $15 $15
1400 316 $0. 3* 31* 30x 30) 304 140.0 11.4 11.4 $1.4 11.4 11.4 $14 $14
3500 206 29. 301 3* 308 30. IAN 50 11.4 11.4 $1.4 $14 SI 4 $1.4 $1.4
1600 196 2.0. 2* 245 2* 24 24 160 11.4 $1.4 51.4 114 114 $1.4 11.4
$700 294 238 204 2* 2* 205 24 $70.0 $14 11.4 51.4 111.1 $1.4 11.4 114
010 214 24 24 208 208 2115 20. M0.0 $14 $14 $14 $14 314 $14 314
$1410 286 288 255 208 204 2115 20. 150.0 11.4 $1.4 $1.4 11.4 11.4 $1.4 $1.4
FY 16E ?let LOVerligr. G. Pr RI
11.7$ 1175 $2.0 $.3.25 St 14.26 14.15 1175 12.25 /2.76 $3.25 $175 14.24 34.75
5300 430 401 308 346 326 174 30 1360 $I 4 $14 $1.4 $1.4 $I 4 $14 $14
$400 194 168 374 308 353 344 143 M0.0 $1.4 51.4 $1.4 $14 SIA 11.4 11,4
1560 34 365 34 34. 3* 134 325 110.0 114 $1.4 114 114 114 $14 $14
0 WO 148 144 33a 325 314 30 108 260.0 114 $1.4 11.4 $1.4 174 $1.4 11.4
$700 324 12€ llx 301 301 213 223 126.0 $1.4 514 11.4 $13 $I 3 $13 113
5100 318 301 21114 204 29c 244 276 NSA $13 $13 11.3 113 $13 113 113
$9.10 508 294 lb 24 2.76 27. 24 MO 113 513 513 113 113 $13 113
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CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0044672
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00190856
EFTA01357835