Deutsche Bank Securities I
Figure 111: Commodity Price) Scenario Analysis Light:Hearn Resources Sensitivity BastA on Bloomberg Conser•:.m
FY ISE EMMA (.5 Million) F9 150 FCF (1Million) 0 co
-c 2 C0
51.75 $225 52.75 1125 13.75 14.25 $4.75 $175 1225 12.75 2325 5175 $4.26 $4.75 0 01
SAO 1,41 $149 $157 MO sin 5110 SIN $110 31031 9150) (31451 (11401 111324 15124) 4117) 3 R
21440 515$ 2194 $202 $710 1214 2726 5234 150.0 11121) ($1141 (1105) (1431 43901 1$23) OM
a; N2
$910 1232 2230 $245 1255 1203 5271 1279 160.0 ISO ($72) 1164) ISM 13401 1541) (1331
0 1600 5277 $215 1203 $301 MOO $317 3326 IMO 1136) Ma 1122) 0151 9 71 11 10
1700 1323 1330 $.132 $346 1354 3302 $370 570.0 $4 III $10 $27 135 $43 NO O.
O.
SOCIO $368 $314 13.34 3192 112) 5402 1416 2110.0 546 1.53 161 109 1M SM SW
$900 $495 Sus $442 $.933 $468 $475 5451 $40.0 $114 1121 1120 1137 $145 1152 1103
F Y 160 EBITDA (S Million) FY 16E FCF (5 Million(
In c...:3
$1.71 $2.4 22-75 1123 237$ 1.425 14.73 11.75 12.23 52.75 53.25 5175 $426 1415
$300 PS $23 131 13.2 $47 $55 561 $300 t$21:. an., room t11301 alto 11173) (SIN)
$400 155 $93 $101 1100 5117 2125 $133 $40.0 41431 l$136i 412.1 ,112o1 i $112) 11105) ISC/7)
MO $45 $154 $172 1179 2117 1125 $203 $500 4701 (ISM €1001 059 444) 1130)
0 IMO 2221 $231 $242 $260 $254 $206 $274 0 1400 RIO ($01 $4 $10 124 Sr 140
$700 1205 1304 1312 1320 $321 1336 $344 170.0 KO 1455 170 $64 192 1100 lice
$500 $305 1374 1.111 4393 130$ MOS 1414 1.10 0 $124 4136 $144 $152 MO $163 1170
1900 $416 $444 1452 2460 $464 $470 $413 Do 0 MOS $24 4214 4222 1230 $236 $244
FY 15E Net Lcvotagr FY 150 Deb2Noved Rtscrves ( Si Mc ft 1
NYMEX Gas (tingle)
$174 $225 12.6 $3.22 $276 11.25 14.75 Sin 1171 $2.15 S3.4 $1IS 6 72 54.75
1200 ill. 114* 10 IS 102x 1144 024 473 210.0 324 423 121 127 127 12 7 $27
$400 29. 64. 51. 7n 742 717 141 140.0 $27 $27 127 527 326 124 120
1400 690 46 64* 61* 59c 5-72 45. $240 1126 1.26 126 226 126 325 126
MOO 56r 44. 52. 404 40, 4 Tr 4.04 50 VS $25 125 125 125 125 224
1700 46. 45. 424 424 414 4r 314 5710 124 22 4 224 124 $2 4 124 323
1000 31 36 374 364 362 344 36t 550.0 124 223 523 423 123 123 323
1000 13 302 204 26 26, 274 27, 950.0 222 222 122 $22 122 221 121
FY 16E Net Leverage FY 16E OebtProved Reserves 114M4 fe
311). 0.45 µlmere) NYMEX Gt. sincro
51 122$ 1275 $3.23 117$ 5425 2475 11.75 423 12.73 13.25 1215 5125 14.75
13110 114$, 748, 1. 4344 1311 917.4 246 $30.0 $2 0 $28 $28 123 $23 $24 $27
1100 106. 171 10 34 1504 136 12% 12.1. $40.0 227 $2 7 $27 $27 $27 127 126
$500 101 98. 514 43 7r 704 sso.o 52 a 126 $26 $26 526 126 $24
$(40 46 66 4b 604 5116 4r 5,04 MOO 52$ 325 525 525 125 124 324
$700 504 464 404 41 444 434 4.1s $70.0 52.4 224 114 124 223 $23 123
1000 17. 366 362 344 3.34 3.2. $10.0 223 123 223 $23 122 122 122
$000 30' 2w 28. 274 201 252 IWO 12 1 121 $21 $21 S2 1 520 $20
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CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0044674
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00190858
EFTA01357836