EFTA01459065

20 November 2015 US Equity Insights 2015 did not have healthy underlying broad based revenue or EPS growth ex oil and dollar S&P sales and operating EPS growth was broadly weak in 2015. Weakness extended beyond commodity producers and FX drags at multinationals. A surge in airline profits masked a significant decline in profits at Industrial Capital Goods. Revenue was flat at Financials with EPS growth from less litigation than 2014. No growth at Consumer Staples despite lower input costs. Good growth at Retailers, but disappointing given the macro tailwinds owing to fierce price competition. Strong at auto, but home builders disappointed. The strongest growth was at Health Care and consumer oriented Tech firms. Corporate ech spending on equip. and software remains very sluggish and chip makers were flattish on earnings given slow PC, handset and weak industrial end markets. Ex. Energy, Financials, HC and AAPL, AMZN & GOOG 2015 S&P EPS growth is -2.5%; this is the underlying trend with -4% FX drag that should fall to -1.5%. Figure 14: S&P Industrials ex. Defense sales growth vs. Figure 35: Core non-defense capital goods new orders & Core capital goods shipments & Mfg ISM shipments sera.* Hr cat rs•Venaaibitair nem 120 teRte Cita! Gaa a mar +Coo to ruo ...MS. Mule plat weave,' 3ne assos Is% toilet/ad. cept-reesu . MO W4 ae t00 7C% 02% MO 04 LIJ a0 .3% I aven 4r4c44.4. 40% a0 %%Oat ra wasenden L in Mowry ilia tsiesai =CIS • 340 I B R E R - 113.si-48 a De a goon ot, Ml Cot Como 0coa M4aei 13a as Wt — mt21.514 On as An: -Na otos SW Oat a a Cara a Seine en Ofteas ant [Figure 16: Industrials ex. Airlines Defense sales growth (Figure 17: Tech ex. AAPL & GOOG sales growth 24% 24% 20% 20% le% 16% 12% 12% 8% 5% • 4% 4% r 0% 0% .4% -4% .4% -8% • 16% -12% Ca eV • • 0 0 Fe el • 0 0 UMW 999. 539 R 9 R 999 R R9R3R2R9R ® trdals 1110.601113 Del I OuSTIOStx Mints nat. rectm01M T4010(4058 Twin PAR 6 0000 Sown 18”. Danr-h• itant Soya WS OnorM• Sent Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 9 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0119278 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00265462 EFTA01459065