20 November 2016
US Equity Insights
IFigure 18: S&P EPS growth ex Energy. Fin., HC and Figure 19: Global enterprise tech spending growth
a• :3 a
AAPL, AMZN & GOOG forecast by region
EPS growth y/y
II
•
13%
2'14
ION
RI BM 09
. 2a an
OM
44%
-1016.
40, in
%week Healthcare A.4Dt. 58.P 55Pexallel 1014 ZOISC 1014E 7017€ 1044 2015(
AWN& above
s'W Los *bon a ICS •Csuos
GOOG
•ZOIS ton •}011btwon
Sasso. an, Dab:IS Sant Meats/ MIS Snots scat Swear ant
I
Figure 20: Linear Technology ILLTC. broad-based Figure 21: Aggregate Industrial revenues (DB US
ndustrial player) Industrial bookings, weak through semiconductor coverage) expected to rebound after
11116 1O16
IS) 2011 4000 wit
II0
we 3750 - 1 ,„„
le% 3500 - [30%
SS 3250 20%
e% 3000 10%
2750 - ' 094
110
103 um 7500 + -10%
• • • 4' 4 4 4 4 4 • 4 41 40 4 4
40 . 0 .0 e0 40 If 40 4° .f° 40 . 0 d° 40 10 40 9° 11490,114, 4040401,4,40,,,
5050 undatiolbooloos Or) •••••yOr SINS inclustnairevenues(Sm) —yty
San Lbw wen H: babe Swd saner Sows Canon dils Dats .ewealener
iFigure 22: S&P 500 trailing 4-qtr EPS growth: 1960 - 3O2015
es%
1960-2014 CAGR 6 7°,
30%
20%
10%
0%
.10%
-20% Aggressive Fed tightening Weak 0.1 and V
slowed GDP growth end Week oil end
strong S weighed
weighed on S&P EPS Rumen default
-30% on S&P EPS
weighed on
S&P EPS
-40%
Recession S&P 500 Trading 4-gtr EPS (WY) -----CAGR avg
SOLetsret; COmpsat Ocursh• &PS
Page 10 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED R CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0119279
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00265463
EFTA01459066